The S&P 500 is floating near all-time highs, pricing in rate cuts, AI euphoria, and soft landing dreams.
But here’s the truth:
The Fed doesn’t manage equity valuations.
It manages inflation and employment — nothing more.
Right now:
Core inflation is still above target
Labor markets are resilient
Financial conditions are loose
Risk assets are overheated
And yet, markets are behaving as if the Fed must cut — simply because SPX is “due” for support?
That’s not how monetary policy works.
If CPI prints hot next week, the market’s rate cut fantasy dies — and so might this rally.
The Fed doesn’t care about your unrealized gains.
They’ll hold the line until real data breaks — not just price action.
#SPX #MacroTrading #CFA #FedMandate #NoRateCut #CPI #FOMC #EquityRiskPremium