SPIUSD trade ideas
Bullish bounce off pullback support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,326.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,211.08
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,517.82
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SPY: Breakout Brewing?📍SPX500 | Triangle Compression Before Breakout?
SPX500 is currently coiling into a symmetrical triangle on the 5-min chart, suggesting a volatility expansion is imminent.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels in Play:
Key Support: 5,419 – 5,428 (0.5 to 0.618 retracement)
Breakout Target: 5,482.83 (Fib 1.382)
Higher Projections: 5,499.94 (1.618), 5,516.82 (1.854)
📈 Probabilities:
Bullish Breakout → 5,455 / 5,483 = 65%
Sideways Chop in 5,420–5,440 range = 20%
Bearish Fade < 5,419 = 15%
🚨 Watching for confirmation above 5,434 with volume for long entry.
This setup aligns with our high-probability DSS framework for intraday signals. Mark your levels. Monitor the breakout.
🧠 Discipline is your alpha.
📊 Chart by: Wavervanir International LLC
#SPX500 #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #TrianglePattern #BreakoutStrategy #SmartMoney #QuantEdge #Wavervanir #MarketUpdate #DayTrading #DSS #SP500
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Relief Rally: A chance to take profits?If we are in a historic crash/correction/recession/whatever, we need to use these relief rallies to take some profits AND dump some of our low-quality speculative positions.
IF WE GET TO TARGET TOMORROW, I'm unloading some of my baggage. Time to give the hot potatoes to someone else.
Caution on Crypto, Tech, SPXI know its a mess, this is just for me anyway.
I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain:
Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted)
Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action
selling on the retest of the top lows last time would offer you 5% off the peako top, (Thats really good!! stop being a perfectionist)
I am very much frustrated with this market, never got the crazy part I was waiting for. But the lack of euphoria is really not that unreasonable when you think about what has been goin on the past 5 years. Everyone is poorer liquidity has been super tight to curb inflation and we still got NASDAQ:NDX up 150% Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN did a 10x and I still am not happy(likely due to the max pain trade of my life COINBASE:ETHUSD ). I have realized that I have been hoping for another 2018 bull run. It may or may not happen, but I can't expect any market to reflect that in any significant way. Markets are much more dynamic than I give them credit for sometimes. They will rhyme but often in ways you do not expect and will not be made clear until that little bastard hindsight kicks in, showing you how obvious it was.
Bullish??? That was all very sudden, is it over now?The market correction really seamed to be an over reaction. I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, at least for the meantime.
maybe this will be closer to 2018 correction and we just keep grinding higher for the rest of the year. I suppose anything is possible.
-Everyone got way to bearish to quick - Spidey senses going off!
-we never copy and paste last cycle to the next, but people have such a recency bias, sometimes its all they can see ( I may know from experience)
- hopefully bullish
Planning to short a little higher. I made a full pivot on my bear position while we were 6% down on the day into the end of last week, switching to long positioning at 5150 and adding a couple times once the first resis levels broke, now I'm starting to get ready to try to position short again into a move a little higher (5550 or so).
My bias at this point is fairly neutral. As a trader, it really doesn't matter which way the market goes. One could equally make the polarised case for us to trend up 1000 points or down 1000 points. Many people think I want to be a bear for the sake of being a bear, but those 1000 points pay the exact same. I'd opt for the one with no systemic risk.
After all, the money I make I keep in banks and brokerages. Nicer to know they'll be okay.
But markets are not a place for preference. Heading into 5550 is where we have another window of risk for the bear setup.
We took a large position (relative to typical exposure) betting 4% long on SPX at 5150 with 100 points stop. Banked on this for 300 points. With the added positions this was a bit over 15%. Basically, we made as much as a non leveraged long would make trading from the absolute low to a retest of the high.
Still currently have some light exposure betting on 5550 hitting.
If and when we get there, we'll cycle some of our long profits back to shorts. Even inside of a bull market case I could make a reasonable case for 5000 retesting.
And if we're actually inside a bear market, then we've just been through the eye of the storm.
Over the last few days I've not done much. Caught up on work outside the market (or related to work I do based on the market that isn't trading). Caught up on sleep (because I slept very rarely through March / early April).
Whatever way it goes, I think we're going to be back to being super active some time in the next few days.
For now, locking in the profits. Through this year the market has made over 50% worth of swings when you add them all up. We caught a lot of them. Covering multiple years of the standard expected gains for the style and low risk setting used. My priority is keeping that.
But I can see myself repositioning as a bear in the coming days.
I'm undecided of how deep a bear move I'd be targeting. But I do strongly suspect I'll be a short 5550 if it trades.
S&P500 INTRADAY sideways consolidationThe Trump administration is moving ahead with tariff plans on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, launching Commerce Department probes. In response, China has ordered its airlines to halt new Boeing jet deliveries, escalating trade tensions.
Despite the trade war, markets are getting a lift after Trump suggested a possible pause on auto tariffs and suspended some consumer electronics tariffs.
Japan will meet with the U.S. this week to discuss trade. The talks will test whether close allies like Japan get more favourable treatment.
Earnings in Focus:
Citigroup and Bank of America report today, following a strong quarter for equity trading across the sector.
Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines are also set to report.
Oil Market:
The International Energy Agency has cut its 2024 oil demand forecast due to trade-related slowdowns and sees a potential supply surplus through 2026.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 1D Death Cross formed! Market COLLAPSE or Bear TRAP? The S&P500 index (SPX) is attempting to recover from the April 07 2025 market low, following the 90-day Tariff pause.
Last Thursday however it formed a Death Cross on the 1D time-frame, he first since May 11 2022, which was during the last Inflation Crisis correction. That was nothing like the current crash though as it was a technical 1-year Bear Cycle in contrast to today which is a flash crash inflicted by Trump's tariffs.
What looks though most similar to today is the 2020 COVID crash. Equally fast and brutal, that sell-off also took place under an extreme pressure environment of uncertainty (economic lockdowns) which the world has never seen, similar to today's tariffs that admittedly have put (for the moment) an end to the U.S. - China trade.
The COVID crash phase also formed a 1D Death Cross just 4 days after the March 23 2020 bottom. Last Thursday's 1D Death Cross came also just 3 days after the April 07 2025 Low. If this pattern of extreme market shock is a repetitive model under such fundamental events, then the stock market has bottomed. And if it follows the exact same recovery pattern as post-COVID, then it may reach the 1.1 Fibonacci extension at 6300 in a little over 5 months (162 days).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Should we be concerned about the death cross ?So, we are at the death cross again? Should we panic? Should we sell ? What if recession is coming? Ohhhhh noo!!!!!
Stop worrying so much and most importantly, stop reading the damn news , especially the headlines that are meant to create more fear than anything! Of course, they want you to sell, how else can the algo traders, big boys scoop up the prices cheap.
It is like displaying thunders and lightning across the sky, gloomy and dark clouds to make you believe it is going to rain, a heavy thunderstorm.
We were in a bear market on 7th Apr where prices drop below 20% from the peak. However, it quickly bounced up within the next two days, especially 9th Apr where there is a 90 days pause on tariffs imposed.
So, technically we are still in a BULL market lah, guys. Focus on the chart not the emotions of the people who are sold daily by social media, influencers with benefits and whoever that wants you to believe their side of the story.
Until we enter into a bear market, we should not speculate too much nor read into the future with too much gloom and doom. I am quite confident the tariff matter will subside and blown away over time just like the real war between Ukraine and Russia (over 3 years and still fighting but who covers the news now, it is STALE and no longer sensational). Any papers or social media that gives that "expert view" on tariffs will be rewarded with likes and traffic volume, much to the content creators delight.
Stay calm, guys! In the short term, market is volatile like a voting machine but in the long term, it is a weighing machine and history has shown us over the past century or so, the market is going up.
Going in and out of the market or TIMING the market - leave that to the experts or professional traders. Your heart and mine cannot take it. Over the long term, you will be rewarded for staying in the market. Just look at Warren Buffett, many a times he bought something, the stock might goes down 10-20% or more, does he panic and starts selling? No, his biggest strength is his patience , one attributes that we all can learn from him.
Go for a run, swim or hit the gym if you are too glued to the news. Stay healthy and ensure you have a balance, diversified portfolio to protect yourself.
$SPX - Recap of April 14 2025So if you just read SPY - this is just a copy and paste because of course we had almost identical price action here. Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and we also gapped right to the top of the bear gap (always considered resistance and strengthened by the downward momentum of the 30min 200.
We did see resistance with those combined bearish levels and we brought is back down to the middle, closed the gap from open and took it back to the 30min 200MA and got pushed back at close.
This chart setup was bearish today - even though we closed green - how? The 30in 200MA pointing down. The bear gap under that. And the 35EMA trading Under the 30min 200MA.
It was an easy trading day and just looking at the momentum you could feel that price was going to stay in the center of the implied move. At least I mentioned that in last night’s video.
Excellent day. How did you guys do??
S&P500: Bottom is in. 5,800 Target imminent.S&P500 is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.927, MACD = -131.940, ADX = 29.116) as it has recovered from the tariff selloff, finding support a little over the 1W MA200. The 1D RSI made a double bottom and is much like the October 27th 2023 bottom. Both DB bullish divergences in contrast to the LL of the price. The immediate target on the rebound that followed in 2023 was the R1 level. Trade: long, TP = 5,800.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
SPX500USD (S&P 500) Technical A`nalysisThe S&P 500 (SPX500USD) is currently approaching the 5,500.0 resistance zone after a strong bullish recovery.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If price successfully breaks and retests 5,500.0, continuation towards the 5,708.6 resistance zone may follow.
A further break could push the market up to 5,795.6.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If SPX500USD fails to break and sustain above 5,500.0, a rejection could send price down towards 5,196.8 support.
A deeper breakdown below 5,196.8 could extend losses towards 4,859.8.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm market conditions using your own strategy before making any decisions.
DEATH CROSS on the SP500?We just witnessed the 50-day SMA crossing below the 200-day SMA — a technical signal known as the Death Cross.
Historically, this pattern has been associated with:
Trend reversals from bullish to bearish
Extended downside pressure
A loss of investor confidence in the short-to-medium term
🧠 While not always followed by major crashes, the last time this pattern showed up in a similar setup was followed by an accelerated drop — and that’s exactly what we’ve seen again.
The real question now is: 👉 Was this a false signal or is more downside ahead?
🔍 Keep an eye on price action around the 5,400–5,500 zone. If it fails to recover, this death cross might just be the start of a deeper correction...
“Markets are strong” – Are they really?President Trump recently stated that "markets became very strong once they got used to tariffs."
But let’s look at the facts:
📊 AMEX:SPY is down -9% YTD, and major names like:
MSFT: -7.55%
AAPL: -18.66%
NVDA: -12.94%
Tech is bleeding, and the broader S&P 500 is clearly reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainty.
🟥 Tariffs = market stress
🟩 Market resilience = not the same as strength
What we’re seeing is not a “strong market” — it’s a market under pressure trying to survive political noise. The weekly chart shows a clear drop after the peak, followed by uncertainty, not conviction.
💭 Is this truly the “strength” investors want to see?
SPX Tariff Relief dips to buy: 5282 ideal, 5100 a Must-Hold zoneStonks got sold in panic then bought in fomo.
We of the Fib Faith indulge in logical serenity.
We plan and execute calmly and deliberately.
5428-5454 bounce would indicate Strong Bull.
5271-5282 Bounce would be ideal structural dip.
5109-5136 is the Must-Hold or it was a bull trap.
==========================================