Sharpe ratio and one year return of spx vs m2 money Sharpe ratio one year return of spx vs m2 money rate of change on year year ....
SPIUSD trade ideas
SPX500 Analysis: Rising Wedge & Bearish Divergence
The SPX500 index exhibits a rising wedge pattern on the , a well-known bearish formation that suggests waning bullish momentum. This pattern typically emerges as price climbs within converging trendlines, hinting at a potential reversal. The significance of this setup is amplified by the appearance of a bearish divergence between price action and momentum indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, on this higher time frame.
Key Observations:
Rising Wedge Formation:
The price action is consolidating within an upward-sloping wedge, with diminishing momentum evident from the narrowing of the range.
A breakdown below the wedge's lower boundary could confirm a bearish move, targeting lower support levels.
Bearish Divergence:
The RSI is forming lower highs, while the price prints higher highs, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum.
On the MACD, we see similar divergence, with the histogram flattening and a potential bearish crossover developing.
Analysis and Expectations:
The confluence of a rising wedge and bearish divergence on this high time frame raises caution for bullish traders. While the broader trend remains upward, these signals often precede a correction or pullback. A decisive break below the wedge's lower trendline, accompanied by increased selling volume, could trigger a deeper retracement.
What to Watch:
Wedge Breakout or Breakdown: A break below the lower trendline signals potential bearish continuation, while a breakout above the wedge may invalidate the setup.
RSI Levels: Watch for a drop below 50 to confirm bearish momentum.
MACD Crossover: A bearish crossover on the MACD will reinforce the downside scenario.
Volume Spike: A spike in volume during a breakout or breakdown adds validity to the move.
Personal View:
I see this setup as a potential pivot point for SPX500. The combination of technical patterns and divergence warrants a cautious stance. If the bearish scenario unfolds, it could offer short opportunities with defined risk-reward setups. However, traders should remain vigilant for any invalidation signs, such as a breakout above the wedge, which could reignite bullish momentum.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical patterns and indicators. Always consider macroeconomic factors and risk management in your trading decisions.
Previous LONG call
Previous LONG call based on divergence
Gold's 4th HISTORICAL capital rotation eventGold's 4th HISTORICAL capital rotation event looming around the corner.
Expecting #silver, #uranium, #copper & #crudeoil to do very well afterwards.
#SPX #Gold #MarketCrash #MomentumShift #StockMarket #CapitalRotation #BearMarket
Monthly CloseS&P500 Timeframe H6 - Since the open this week we have been hovering around the 6,000 mark which is currently acting as a psychological level. Is there more upside to come before the end of the monthly candle close or are we going to see another bounce lower from this zone like we did last week?
An a idea for SPX500Contemplating the possibility of a long-term pullback to look for that liquidity. Resume positions and continue to give new highs. We'll see what happens...
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound:
The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up.
As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150.
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S&P drifts in holiday-shortened weekUS stock index futures were little-changed in early trade this morning. This follows a strong session on Monday which brought a fresh record close for the Dow, and a new intra-day high for the Russell 2000. The S&P and NASDAQ also posted gains for the session. But all four majors pulled back from the pre-open highs made by their respective front-month futures contracts. The gains came as investors continue to react to the Presidential Election and to Trump’s victory. Investors expect a strongly business-friendly administration, promising deregulation and tax cuts. And in contrast to the apparent chaos and disorganisation in the wake of Trump’s first election win, this time his picks for senior political appointments have been timely, and greeted positively, on the whole. Undoubtedly, markets were bulled up by the choice of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, given his successful career as a leading hedge fund manager. Mr Bessent brings with him a ‘Rule of Three’, whereby he intends to: cut the budget deficit by 3% by 2028, push real GDP growth to 3% and work to boost oil output by 3 million barrels per day. US Treasury bonds soared on news of Mr Bessent’s appointment, with the 10-year yield dropping around 14 basis points. Despite this, there are concerns over Trump’s threatened trade tariffs. Yesterday, the president-elect named China, Mexico and Canada as his big three targets for tariffs, which between them account for around 40% of US imports. With all the majors pulling back from yesterday’s highs, the S&P 500 is trading below 6,000 once again. Investors will want to see bullish momentum pick up ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. But it’s worth noting that the probability of another 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed at its December meeting continues to fall. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given that the Dow alone is up close to 8% in less than two weeks, that Fed Chair Powell has said there’s no rush to cut rates further, and that inflation has turned higher. Tomorrow there’s an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE. Today sees the release of FOMC minutes and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence number.
Wall Street Gains on Easing Rates; S&P 500 Key Levels &ScenariosInterest Rates and Economic Reports Boost Wall Street Futures; Asia and Europe Higher
Wall Street futures edged higher in pre-market trading on Monday, supported by easing interest rates and a focus on key economic reports scheduled for the week. While the earnings calendar remains light, the market's attention is shifting toward fundamental economic data, shaping investor sentiment.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price will try to touch 6022 and then will drop to touch 5970 if it can stabilize below 6022.
Bullish Scenario: A decisive breakout above 6022, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, would signal bullish momentum, with potential targets at 6068.
Bearish Scenario: Sustained trading below 5970 could pave the way for further downside targets at 5932 and 5896.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5998
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6068
Support Levels: 5972, 5932, 5896
US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction
The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions.
◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities
● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities.
● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns.
● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices.
◉ Corporate Financing Costs
● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies.
● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations.
● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively.
◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics
● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship.
● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns.
● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500.
◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations
● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth.
● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings.
● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds.
◉ Historical Context and Trends
● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows.
● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth.
● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives.
◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields
● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields.
● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds.
● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities.
◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis
The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously.
This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of:
● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth.
● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity.
● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth.
On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise.
◉ Conclusion
The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
US500 in the price channel US500 continues to move within the price channel. I anticipate further market growth.
$SPX Trading Range for 11.26.24Tomorrow’s trading range is pretty straightforward. The implied move is between 5955 and 6020. The top of the implied move at 6020 lines right up with all-time highs which are currently at 6020.75.
I am absolutely looking at 6020 6030 bear call spreads for tomorrow. Underneath us the 35 EMA and the bottom of the implied move lines up with the 30 minute two moving average and that is at 5955 which does make 5955 5945 bull put spreads and attractive spread
SPX500USD Is Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 5,994.0.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5,864.5 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SPX to new ATH till next CPIThe correction is over and now SPX is looking at new ATH till Dec 11. Invalidated if breaks below the green line.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - SPX Ascending ChannelWe're still riding this trend up since early November. We have retraced nearly the entire election move, but bounced at the top end before moving down to fill that gap. Some important areas and scenarios I think are likely:
#1 - A move up to supply/ATH/upper end of the channel which leads to a rejection. The channel holds after a small pullback and we go on to break above ATH on the second try. I would look for longs on a retest of the previous ATH in this case or just try to get long after the break on some dips. Also possible there is no rejection and we go straight through, would be the same idea.
#2 - The supply rejection leads to a channel break causing further downside. We could also break below the channel before tapping supply early this week. If the channel is broken to the downside, shorts may be good down to the top of the gap where we bounced last week. I wouldn't be surprised to see bulls hold it there again.
#3 - Price falls into the election gap and fills it. This would be a potential area to long, but also if it breaks even lower after that, we could be headed back to the recent swing low near 5700. That will be a key area of interest if price does get down there.
SPX Pull Back, ready for Continuation!!!Simple Entry. Just wait on your LTF Confirmation to Entry
Price is bullish on the Weekly, Daily & H4 ,
Price is currently retracing to 1) Previous structure high, 2) Previous Resistance>support 3) Daily lvl, 5863, 4) 50% lvl (Not a prz)
This is a prime zone for continuation.
All Time frames are Bullish in Trend except H1. Wait for H1 to return and confirm bullish trend to enter Trade
Ideal Entry will be around the 5,888 Mark,
SL at 5839
TP1: 6,010
Stretch Goal: 6,476
Concepts used.
Structure + Trend
Price Action
Support & Resistance
Supply & Demand
Fibs
RSI
$SPX Trading Range for Today
All right, similar thing over here - so today’s implied move is between 5935 and 6005 and add open. We capped up above 599 above previous all-time highs made new ones and pulled back down.
The 35 EMA is on the right side of the trading range today and be careful if it does come up into the green. I would expect pullback at that point.
Will SPX break 6000 levels?Looks like SPX isn't gonna break 6000 levels. Plus NASDAQ should break 20000 levels so as to slow down the markets. With the global tension, lets see how everything turns out
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Ascending Triangle vs Rising Wedge I've identified two potential patterns on the S&P 500 SP:SPX chart:
Ascending Triangle (blue trendlines): Higher lows and flat highs, with breakout potential above the flat top or a breakdown below the higher lows. Indicated by blue arrows.
Rising Wedge Developing (red trend lines and arrows): Higher highs and higher lows, with a potential bearish breakout below the lower trend line or a less common bullish breakout above the upper trend line. Red arrows highlight the touch points on the rising wedge pattern.
Pattern Rules:
For a valid pattern, the following rules apply:
Ascending Triangle:
At least two higher lows
Flat highs
Decreasing volume
Breakout above the flat top or breakdown below the higher lows
Rising Wedge:
At least three touch points on each trend line (I will use as few as 2)
Higher highs and higher lows
Decreasing volume
Breakout below the lower trend line or above the upper trend line (less common)
Quick Review for Beginners:
New to chart patterns? Here's a quick rundown:
Higher lows: A series of lows that are higher than the previous ones.
Flat highs: A series of highs that are roughly the same level.
Decreasing volume: The trading volume decreases as the pattern forms.
Breakout: When the price moves above or below the pattern's boundary.
Trend lines: Lines drawn to connect the highs or lows of a pattern.
Keep in mind that chart patterns are not a guarantee of future price movements, but rather a tool to help identify potential trends and trading opportunities.
Sell opportunityTrade Signal:
Trade Type: Short (Sell)
Entry Point:
Enter short around 5,972–5,975 to capitalize on the resistance zone.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 5,674.56 (initial support level).
TP2: 5,567.46 (stronger support indicated by the volume profile).
Stop Loss (SL):
Place a stop-loss above the resistance at 6,016.60.
Risk/Reward Ratio:
With TP2, the trade offers a solid risk/reward ratio, given the expected downward move of ~6.75%.
Analysis of the Chart:
Price Level: The S&P 500 index is currently at 5,969.33, nearing resistance at around 5,972.90, with a projected downward move.
Volume Profile: A significant distribution of volume in the orange zone below indicates strong support between 5,560 and 5,569.
Momentum: The momentum histogram at the bottom is showing red bars, indicating a loss of bullish momentum and the potential onset of a bearish trend.
Trendline: The upward trend has flattened, signaling a potential reversal.
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekS&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week
The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year.
Mixed Economic Data
The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments:
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence.
S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector.
Nvidia Shines Bright
Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains.
Market Sentiment and Seasonality
The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability.
Challenges Ahead
While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events:
FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024.
PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative.
Lingering Risks
In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of:
Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth.
Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets.
Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario
Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening.
What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
SPX 25 Nov 2024 Bullish and Bearish ZonesBullish zone is above 5977
Bearish Zone is below 5961.5
Note: This is an opinion based on analysis, This is not a buy/sell call. Use stop loss.
US500 Falling wedge ? !!!i'm not saying that i'm against indices but i'm not sure about the stability about this falling wedge
in fact, if i see a decent sized pullback i would jump in
