POSSIBLE SELL OPPORTUNITY ON SP500Price showing signs of strong momentum. We look for the pullback to take the trade.
SPIUSD trade ideas
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.30.2024🔮
📅 Mon Dec 30
⏰ 9:45am
Chicago PMI: 42.7 (previous: 40.2)
⏰ 10:00am
Pending Home Sales m/m: 0.9% (previous: 2.0%)
📅 Tue Dec 31
⏰ 9:00am
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y: 4.1% (previous: 4.6%)
📅 Thu Jan 2
⏰ 8:30am
Unemployment Claims: 220K (previous: 219K)
⏰ 9:45am
Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.3)
⏰ 11:00am
Crude Oil Inventories
📅 Fri Jan 3
⏰ 10:00am
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.4)
GAP ABOVE HPZ:
Markets are playing traders
like a fiddle. If it pumps then
an impeding drop
OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Tag the upper levels before
drop into 5951 area
GAP BELOW HCZ:
This will cause extreme hedging
which will drag the markets up higher
before a dump lower
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX 500 - Be patient and wait to see how it goes up.Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trade on what we see the price movement on chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position. This ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 6,027.45
1st Support: 5,869.16
1st Resistance: 6,182.03
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SPX Crash Targetsit's important to zoom out frequently to gain some additional perspective. I've given some wild targets for the next 12-18 months and most probably think it's silly, but I can assure it is not. I don't have to be right and it may not be as bad as I think although I highly doubt that.
Either way, this is a one month chart going back to the late 90s with what I consider to be the most important longer term levels. It's very easy to get caught up in what's happening now and hopefully we've all made money on the rally, but the last two years has just been a final blow off that happened rapidly at the end of a 15 year bull run, not so significant in the end.
I don't actually know what will happen or how far it will fall, but TA can help with that. Maybe we will enter some sort of alternate dimension and it never falls, who knows. Seems extremely unlikely to me, but we'll see.
A summary of downside targets and potential paths I will look for:
- First target is going to be the ascending trendline from the dotcom peak to the 2021 ATH. A retest of this trendline should be the first stop and it would be a big correction. Many would expect this to be enough, but in reality we won't even be in a bear market until it is broken.
- Next two targets are the 2021 ATH and ascending trendline from the COVID bottom. This would put us around 4,800 and may be considered the most reasonable downside target before a recovery. I would also say that in reality we have not even entered a big correction unless these levels break.
- If we cannot hold the 2021 ATH, next stop is the ascending trendline from the 2009 bottom and the bottom in 2022 almost right at 3,500. Personally I think this is a reasonable spot to expect a bottom, but this would be the best scenario if you ask me. This would be bad, but not 1929 material.
- If we cannot hold 3,500 then it starts to get ugly and I see this as most likely. I think the ultimate bottom will be in a range anywhere from the COVID low down to the 2000/2008 peak. basically 2,200 - 1,500. It's at that point I think things will begin to turn around, but I still have hope for a bottom around 3,500 instead.
There you have it. I'm posting this now for you all to laugh at, I'm afraid the laughter and mockery will age like milk, but only time will tell. I hope I'm wrong and if I am, that's a win as far as I'm concerned. Remember, it doesn't matter how confident I am, if these major levels are not broken it won't happen and I won't bet on it, still playing the fluctuations and beginning to build longer term short positions for now.
Price will move from key are to key area as it always does. The fluctuations in between are largely insignificant and predicting how extreme the market may get and when is nearly impossible. I've been warning about this publicly since June, my timeframe has always been the fall of 2024 and after the first rate cut with a potential catalyst at any moment before. The market shrugged of all negative catalysts in classic fashion and we melted up instead obviously.
However, I think the extreme drops and volatility we have had are noteworthy. This is very similar to 1929 where in the months leading up to the crash we had several huge dumps that recovered in the same day. Highly unusual, eventually there will be no recovery. These events like in early August just show how overleveraged vulnerable the market is toa catastrophic margin call event.
TLDR:
I think I have posted enough on this topic, but I feel like I'm losing my mind seeing something like 90% of Americans say they do not expect a recession anytime soon so it makes me want to keep going. This is very concerning to me which is why I'm doing it, so maybe I can help educate and stop this from happening again in the future.
I don't have much hope unless we abolish the federal reserve, but maybe my efforts can help one person or a few at least. If we all continue to do nothing, we will forever be stuck in this dreaded cycle of engineered recessions and bull markets that are controlled entirely by a very small group of people who do not have America's best interests at heart and lie uncontrollably while they are doing it.
If you made it this far, thanks for reading. This is exactly what a major top looks like it, it could not be more obvious and I want teach people how to identify these things using the most basic tools such as the bond market and retail sentiment. Saylor is running back his dotcom ponzi bust at 10x the scale and it is terrifying. Retail is going to get rugged so hard on stocks and BTC, while having perhaps the highest investor confidence level in history.
Retail is all in on stocks and BTC with confidence soaring more each day as if it's impossible to lose. I have never in my life seen the bullish sentiment for something be so extreme as it is right now on BTC. This does not end well, it is just a matter of time. Maybe do some research on cryptography rather than repeating the same meaningless buzz words like "decentralized." I don't expect many will care or read what I say right now, but hopefully this archive of information I'm creating in the moment can be here to view in the future for educational purposes. Godspeed.
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave 12/27/24My prior post noted an SPX area that could terminate the rally that began on 12/20/24. Subsequently the SPX rallied just above the target zone illustrated in the prior post. The rally termination point came just below the point were Sub Minuette wavr "a" equals sub minuette wave "c".
The sharp decline on 12/27/24 appears to be the beginning of at least a multi-month decline.
S&P 500 Index key levels to Watch this weekIf you're trying to figure out the stock market's next moves, watch the S&P 500 Index. Last Friday marked a crucial point, with the index dipping to 5,930. This is the line you don't want to cross. Slipping below means we're below the 50-day moving average again and likely heading further south. Falling past this 5,930 mark breaks the trendline for the second time, and you'll probably see more pressure to dip below the post-FOMC low — that's your second critical level.
Things might get dicey from there, but if the selling picks up speed, I'd start eyeing the 200-day moving average as a target for early January 2025. Here's the bottom line: don't hurry to jump in at the start of January. We need some clarity on where the market's headed first.
Navigating the S&P 500🟢 Navigating the S&P 500
The S&P 500 index is near all-time highs, and many voices are starting to question these prices, even talking about a bubble. But is this true?
Setting aside opinions and focusing on technical analysis, it's important to note that as long as we don't lose the $5,860 level, we will remain in a bullish market . Therefore, buying in that area is interesting in terms of risk/reward.
Losing this level places us in a sideways zone, where range trading can be sought, knowing that we could be sideways for months.
Finally, if the $5,670 zone is lost, we would indeed be facing a bearish market where more severe corrections could occur.
✅ What pattern is unfolding in SP:SPX ?
We are seeing a Head and shoulders pattern developing, but we need to break the 5.860$ level to confirm it.
Consequently the break of the level confirms at least a Neutral market but also a H&S pattern!
✴️ Do you want me to analyze any market? Just comment below which market you want me to analyze.
ENJOY AND FOLLOW for more 😊
[Education] Stop Lying To Yourself About Your Trading DisciplineYou know exactly what's wrong. You've read all the books. Watched countless YouTube videos. You understand that discipline is crucial for trading success. Yet here you are, breaking your rules again.
I lost $15,000 and blew over 20 prop firm challenges before I finally faced the brutal truth: Understanding the importance of discipline isn't enough. You need a system to force yourself to be disciplined.
The Expensive Lessons of "Just One More Time"
Let me share something embarrassing. Last year, I was trading a $200,000 funded account. My rules were simple: 1% risk per trade, no trading during news, no moving stop losses.
One day, I was up 3% for the week. NFP was approaching. My position was in profit. "Just this one time," I told myself, "I'll hold through the news."
You can guess what happened.
The price started to go against me so fast that it slipped my stop loss. My stop loss got blown through. What should have been a 1% risk turned into a 4% loss. Just like that, I lost two months' worth of profits because I thought rules were meant to be broken.
Why You Keep Breaking Your Rules (Even Though You Know Better)
Let's be honest. You know you shouldn't move your stop losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t revenge trade after losses, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t risk more than 1-2% per trade, but you do it anyway. You know you shouldn’t trade during major news events, but you do it anyway.
Why?
Because knowing isn't the same as doing. It's like going to the gym - everyone knows how to lose weight (eat less, move more), but knowing doesn't get you abs.
The Real Reason You Lack Discipline
Here's what I discovered after coaching dozens of traders: The problem isn't lack of discipline. It's having too much flexibility in your trading plan.
Think about it:
"Wait for confirmation" - But what exactly is confirmation?
"Don't risk too much" - But what's too much?
"Let winners run" - But how long should you let them run?
Vague rules create room for interpretation. And where there's room for interpretation, there's room for breaking rules.
The System That Forces Discipline
After losing enough money, I developed what I call the "No-Choice Trading Framework." No choice, you gotta follow. Here's how it works:
1. Pre-Trade Rules (No Exceptions)
Write exact entry price, stop loss, target, and your emotions BEFORE entering
Screenshot your analysis
Calculate position size using this formula: (Account size × 1%) ÷ Stop loss in pips
Set alarms at entry levels
No entering without completing all steps
2. During Trade Rules (Zero Flexibility)
No looking at charts if using limit orders
No moving stop losses for any reason other than breakeven
No adding to positions
No checking P&L until trade closes
Phone must be in another room
3. Post-Trade Rules (Must Complete)
Journal entry within 10 minutes of trade closing
Score yourself on rule adherence (1-10)
Screenshot final result
Write what you'll do differently next time
Implementing The Framework
1. Start With Small Size
Trade 0.25% risk until you can follow rules for 20 straight trades
Only increase to 0.5% after proving discipline
Reach 1% risk only after 50 trades with perfect rule adherence
2. Create External Accountability
Share your pre-trade checklist with a mentor
Post your analysis before entering
Join a community where discipline is valued over profits
3. Remove Temptations
Delete trading apps from your phone
Set up a separate trading computer
Create a dedicated trading space
Turn off P&L display
The Uncomfortable Truth
You're not going to like this, but you need to hear it: If you can't follow rules with a $1,000 account, you won't follow them with a $100,000 account.
The only difference is that with a bigger account, your lack of discipline will cost you more money.
I now manage multiple six-figure funded accounts. The trades I take on a $200,000 account are exactly the same as the ones I take on a $10,000 account. The only difference is the position size.
Your Next Steps
Write down your exact trading rules (no vague statements)
Create a checklist that must be completed for every trade
Trade minimum size until you can follow rules perfectly
Track your discipline score separately from your P&L
Remember, the market doesn't care about your goals, your dreams, or your excuses. It only cares about whether you can execute your strategy with discipline.
The choice is yours: Continue lying to yourself about "just this one time," or commit to building systems that force you to be disciplined.
Another move down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made a correction up and retested the whole Daily FVG above.
After that this pair dropped again.
Next week we could see a correction up and another drop.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction up and retest into the 4H FVG's. After a change in orderflow to bearish, you could trade shorts.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
Catch Big Reversals Like a Pro Using the GOLDEN RSIHow to Catch Market Tops and Bottoms Using the GOLDEN RSI Indicator
Trading market reversals can feel like a daunting task. But what if you had a secret weapon to help you identify tops, bottoms, and potential reversals with ease? Enter the GOLDEN RSI Indicator—a custom-built tool designed to revolutionize your trading strategy. In this tutorial, I’ll show you how to leverage this powerful indicator to spot reversal trades like a seasoned pro.
What is the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
The GOLDEN RSI builds on the traditional RSI (Relative Strength Index) by adding optimized zones and visual signals that highlight potential bullish and bearish reversals. Unlike the standard RSI, which requires subjective interpretation, this indicator provides precise entry and exit signals by visually marking key market conditions.
How to Use the GOLDEN RSI to Catch Market Reversals?
Understand the Key Zones:
Overbought Zone (Above 80): Signals a potential market top or reversal from bullish to bearish.
Oversold Zone (Below 20): Indicates a potential market bottom or reversal from bearish to bullish.
Neutral Zone (60-40): Consolidation phase where trends are less decisive.
Spotting Bullish Reversals
When the RSI dips into the oversold zone (below 20) and begins to reverse upward, the GOLDEN RSI will highlight a Bull signal. This suggests a potential upward move, ideal for long trades.
Pro Tip: Look for confirmation with price action, such as a bullish candlestick pattern or a break of resistance.
Spotting Bearish Reversals
When the RSI climbs into the overbought zone (above 80) and starts to turn down, the GOLDEN RSI will mark a Bear signal. This indicates a potential downward move, perfect for short trades.
Pro Tip: Combine with chart patterns like double tops or bearish engulfing candles to strengthen your confidence in the trade.
The Hidden Power of Divergences
Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This signals potential bullish momentum.
Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs while the RSI makes lower highs. This signals potential bearish momentum.
The GOLDEN RSI visualizes divergences clearly, so you can spot them effortlessly.
Use Risk Management Tools
Set stop-loss levels below recent swing lows (for bullish trades) or above recent swing highs (for bearish trades).
Use risk-reward ratios of at least 1:2 to maximize your profit potential.
Real Trade Example Using GOLDEN RSI
In the SPX 15-minute chart above, the GOLDEN RSI accurately identified:
A Bearish Reversal near the market top, as the RSI entered overbought territory and started to fall.
A Bullish Reversal as the RSI dipped into the oversold zone and recovered upward.
These signals allowed for precise entry points, minimizing risk and maximizing rewards.
Why the GOLDEN RSI is a Game-Changer
Unlike generic RSI tools, the GOLDEN RSI is designed with traders in mind. It eliminates the guesswork by providing visual cues for market reversals. Whether you’re trading stocks, indices, or crypto, this indicator is a must-have in your toolkit.
How to Get the GOLDEN RSI Indicator?
Want to try it for yourself? Head over to TradingView and add the GOLDEN RSI Indicator to your chart. Use it alongside your favorite price action strategies to take your trading to the next level.
Conclusion
Reversals can make or break a trader’s portfolio. By mastering the GOLDEN RSI, you can confidently spot market tops, bottoms, and reversals with precision. Start using this custom indicator today and watch your trading results improve dramatically!
Don’t forget to like, share, and follow me on TradingView for more tutorials like this one. Let’s catch those reversals together!
S&P 500. New highs still ahead.
This cycle up has a lot of room to continue. In my view, the part of the right upper purple rectangle, the one above the green line with ‘support’ text, pretty much covers the area where SPX could fluctuate on its very likely way up to around 7000, ideally until Jul25. Don’t be mislead by the black channel upper line - it’s not a target, not a meaningful resistance, though, the level where two channels (black and brown) intersect (purple crosshairs), backed up with local fib x2.618 target, could be an important stopping point in ascent scheduled on 24-25th of March, with likely meaningful reaction from it with further consolidation (not excluding a reversal either). I use squares and fib targets, with the one in the middle already confirmed on many pivots, and the one on the left, projective, based on the final 7k target. Interesting is that the ground above 6000 is like an operational area free of any obstacles even of fib character, very much visible discovery zone.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 27, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this short trading week, the S&P 500 made significant gains and is approaching our main target, Key Resistance at 6090. This movement is expected to support the next phase of the interim rebound, with the goal of breaking through the Key Resistance level at 6090 and continuing the bullish trend. However, it's important to acknowledge that a retest of the Mean Support at 5870 is still a likely scenario.
S&P Completing Head and Shoulders Pattern?The S&P 500 www.tradingview.com might be completing a head and shoulders pattern—a classic bearish signal.
We’ve been following this for a while, we've seen the left shoulder at around 6,000 high, which hit on the SMP FOMO-o-meter, the head near 6,100, and a potential right shoulder at 6,000 high. The key neckline sits around 5,800—a break below could target 5,600.
Watch for volume spikes and economic data to confirm the move. But if the S&P pushes above 6,100, the pattern is invalid. Stay ready—this could shape the market! *Video being uploaded. Link to channel in profile *
SPX Head & Shoulders Top on Daily... Watching for $5600 to $5200Hi Traders,
SPX is showing signs of a potentially bearish formation—a head and shoulders top.
Historically, this pattern has signaled increased downside risk for equity markets.
As the price draws closer to the neckline, a break below could take us to the next major support level around 5,600.
This will be a crucial zone to for traders and investors to monitor closely.
Market conditions could sour quickly and an accelerated drop should cause traders to act cautiously over the next couple of weeks.
Good luck out there.
Mark
19.12.24 SPX 5872 : Sector RotationRegarding the last 15 to 20 months, on monthly chart, you will find the comparison between the major sectors within the SPX: semiconductors, finance, retailer goods, information technology.
What is interesting: sector information technology still rising, no cut, no descending, linear rsining, not hyperpolic, which is still a sign of exuberation.
The largest companies in this sector:
Oracle, Microsoft, nvidia, adobe, accenture, intel, cisco, salesforce, apple.
So main question is: if information technology is our favorite for 2025, which of the companies are the relative strongest and at fair price/earning. Answer will be given in separate chart.
And then we will well prepared downmove in SPX which i expect in jan/feb for 10-20%.
Dan, 19th of September.
Short S&P500Potential local top
Target 4800 area
I am anticipating a difficult year ahead for us stock market, we'll s&p500chart indicating a top right now in my opinion.
ABC UP and DOWN I am long look for 6143/6235 The chart posted is the sp 500 cash we now have a 5 3 5 forming in wave 5 of 5 of 5 .I have support 5940 should hold and we should Now rally above ALL highs in the final wave to the bull from oct 13th 2022 best of trades WAVETIMER
Equities Could Rise Further in 2025Will there be a bigger bubble in the rising stock market?
Unbelievably, on a technical analysis level, the rise has not come to an end.
S&P500 The new Bullish Leg has begun.The S&P500 index (SPX) has completed 4 straight green 1D candles, and is already trading above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. With its 1D RSI also reaching its MA (yellow trend-line), we view last Friday's candle as the new Higher Low at the bottom of the 4-month Channel Up.
This pattern is so far highly symmetrical with each of the 2 completed Legs so far, following an a-b-c-d structure. Right now we are on step (a) that is the start of the Bullish Leg. Based on this model, we are expected to approach the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up on step (b) then make the mid-Leg pull-back to (c) and then resume the uptrend for the Bullish Leg's top on (d).
We expect that to be on at least 6300, which is marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, being the minimum level that each of the previous 2 Bullish Legs hit.
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Possible C Wave Completion. The big bear candles filled all my short targets and I'd set some pending orders to buy into a following spike.
We did get a big bounce off the buy entry zone but I find it a bit suspicious for a possible bull trap.
If it is, this is the likely area it ends now. Exited longs and took some shorts yesterday at 6040.
If this was Elliot waves, would forecast a big move. A drop of about 8% to 5500.
Do have to see strong selling to evidence the EWs.
