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S&P 500 at a crossroads: breakout or fake move?The S&P 500 is stuck in a two day old descending triangle pattern making it a tricky setup after an aggressive sell off. A clean break below could lead to a drop towards 5549 with a further 1.6 percent decline. However there’s also the chance of a false breakdown followed by a rebound which could turn this into a fake move. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:SPX500Short
by ThinkMarkets
S&P INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5714The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 3.2% year-on-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and slightly below the expected 3.3%. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.4% annually, also lower than the 3.8% recorded in January. On a monthly basis, the PPI remained unchanged, while the core PPI saw a slight 0.1% decline. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5714 Resistance Level 2: 5770 Resistance Level 3: 5805 Support Level 1: 5523 Support Level 2: 5480 Support Level 3: 5300 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
A Pause in the Slaughter HouseAfter the brutal decline we witnessed for the last few days, it looks like the SP500 has found a floor. The markets never move in a straight line. The VIX reached a level above 29, which signals high volatility and lower prices. The small pauses it took were just small bounces used by the market to keep selling. Yesterday we say a change in the trend of the VIX. In the Madrid Symbol Display indicator we see there was a meaningful change in the trend of the fear Index, It broke its trend at 27 to settle at 24. We're far from being out of the woods, specially considering that Trump is not backing off from his tariffs, and he disregarded the stock market as his performance gauge like he used to do during his first term, as well as the unemployment levels. His arguments are "it's going to cause a little disturbance", and "they're globalist companies that ripped off the US". Well those were not arguments he used during Trump v.1. Tesla plummeted, and we saw it coming when the insiders dumped stock. Elon hasn't dumped his stock, and he's the major shareholder of Tesla share, but we have seen the decline, and since this is one of the major index contributors, it has dragged down the market. We have seen declines also in crypto, chip manufacturers, etc. So it's not only Tesla, the debate of whether the boycott and/or the market environment have contributed to its decline is another story that has to be addressed separately. Bottom line, the market seems to get get ready for a "Dead Cat Bounce", and probably taking the index to the "Back to Normal" sentiment. Be aware that the momentum indicators are pointing down, and so far, this is not going to be a declared uptrend. The geopolitical environment and the tariffs are not gone, so the initial triggers are still active, and there's no reason to think this is going to change in the short term. We can say that a relief rally is in the making, and as long as the VIX is kept in check under the 24ish level we can take it as a truce to rebalance portfolios and hedge positions. SPX Target 5800.
SP:SPXShort
by Madrid
7
S&P 500 Index, Gold, and BitcoinToday, I’m analyzing the weekly charts of the S&P 500 Index, Gold, and Bitcoin. Notice anything interesting? 🤔 Since late 2022, these assets have been moving in sync, showing an unusually strong correlation. At times, it almost feels like they’re behaving as a single market. But spotting these connections provides valuable insights we can use to our advantage. One chart that stands out is the S&P 500 Index, particularly its rebound from the dual Fibonacci support zone around $5520. This is a critical level, and as long as it holds, both Bitcoin and Gold are likely to maintain their upward momentum. For now, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, and this trend could continue throughout the year. 🚀
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoPAMM
Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It...Bearish Darvas Box? Here’s How I’m Trading It | SPX Market Analysis 13 Mar 2025 The market is stuck on repeat, playing the same song over and over. Drop, pause, drop, pause—sideways, down, sideways, down. This looks very much like a bearish Darvas box pattern. And guess what? We nailed it (yesterday). 📌 SPX continues to stair-step lower, just as we anticipated. 📌 5650 remains a rock-solid resistance level—confirmed by Gamma Exposure. 📌 On Monday, we expected a sideways stall—and we got exactly that. With this predictable rhythm, we locked in another live zero-day trade during my Fast Forward Mentorship call, hitting max profit by the end of the day. Until a breakout forces a change, I’ll keep stacking bearish trades, watching pulse bars, and waiting for the next clean setup. Viva la profits! --- Deeper Dive Analysis: At this point, the market feels like it’s reading from a script—stair-step down, stall, stair-step down again. And frankly? I’m not complaining. 📌 The Setup – Another Day, Another Bearish Move From Monday’s analysis, we expected this exact movement—SPX meandering sideways after a drop, before setting up the next move. 5650 remains resistance, confirmed by Gamma Exposure. 5700 is the key level before I even think about bullish setups. If we break lower, 5255 is still the daily breakdown target. 📌 The Trade – Zero-Day Profits, Executed to Perfection With the market following our expected pattern, I took full advantage: ✅ Live zero-day trade executed during my Fast Forward Mentorship call. (see main blog for walkthrough) ✅ Plan was simple—sell premium at the range high, let the market do the work. ✅ Expired at max profit by the end of the day. This is what happens when you trade with structure—no guessing, no chasing, just following the game plan and letting the market pay you. 📌 What’s Next? Playing the Game Until It Changes Until SPX decides to break out, I’ll continue to: Look for bearish entries, pulse bars, and breakouts. Delay bullish plays until we clear 5700. Stay patient and let the profits stack up. Because when you have a system that works, you don’t need to force the market—just follow its lead. Viva la profits! --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The Darvas Box Trading Strategy was created in the 1950s by a professional ballroom dancer who turned $25,000 into $2.25 million in 18 months—all while travelling the world. 💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, the best traders aren’t even traders at first—but they know how to follow a system that works.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
US500 Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,568.9. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,791.3 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by SignalProvider
2
Trading Psychology or Technical Analysis—When Mind Meets MatterThere’s an age-old battle in trading that makes the bull vs. bear debate look like a game of pickleball (no offense, finance bros). It’s the clash between the traders who swear by their charts and the ones who insist it’s all about mindset. The technicals versus the psychologicals. Fibonacci retracements versus fear and greed. RSI versus your racing heart. TLDR? Both matter—a lot. But knowing when to trust your indicators, when to trust yourself, and when to blend both is the fine line that separates those who thrive from those who rage-quit. ⚔️ The Cold, Hard Numbers vs. the Soft, Messy Brain Think of technical analysis as your sometimes inaccurate GPS in trading. It’s structured, predictable, and gives you clear entry and exit points—until it doesn’t. Because markets, much like a GPS in a tunnel, don’t always cooperate. That’s where psychology creeps in. Your mind is the ultimate trading algorithm, but it’s often running outdated software. Fear of missing out? That’s just your brain throwing a tantrum. Revenge trading? A glitch in emotional processing. Overconfidence after three wins in a row? Well done, you genius. Technical analysis gives you signals, but trading psychology determines how you act on them. 🤷‍♂️ When the Chart Says One Thing, and Your Brain Says Another Picture this: You’ve mapped out the perfect setup. The moving averages align, volume confirms the breakout, and everything screams BUY . But then your brain whispers, What if it reverses? What if this is a trap? What if I’m about to donate my account balance to the market gods? You hesitate. The price moves without you. Now, frustration kicks in, and suddenly, you’re clicking BUY at the worst possible moment—just in time for a pullback. Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t take. And sometimes, trusting the chart over your overthinking brain is the only way forward. 🔥 The Big Guys and Their Choices Legendary investors have picked their sides in this debate. Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital, has long been a big believer in market psychology. He argues that understanding investor sentiment is more valuable than any chart pattern because markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear. On the other hand, Paul Tudor Jones—one of the greatest traders of all time—leans on technicals, famously saying, “The whole trick in investing is: ‘How do I keep from losing everything?’ If you use the 200-day moving average rule, you get out. You play defense.” Both approaches work. The question is: Are you the type who deciphers market mood swings, or do you trust that a well-placed moving average will tell you when to cut and run? 🌀 Overtrading: The Technical Trap and the Psychological Spiral Overtrading usually starts with a good trade, a small win, and a rush of dopamine that convinces you you’ve cracked the code. So, you take another trade. Then another. And before you know it, you’re firing off entries like a caffeinated gamer, except your PnL is the one taking the damage. Technical traders fall into this trap because they see too many setups. Every candlestick pattern, every little bounce, every “potential” breakout becomes a reason to trade. Psychological traders, on the other hand, may overtrade out of boredom, frustration, or the need to “make back” losses. The result? An emotional rollercoaster that ends with an account balance you don’t want to check the next morning. The fix? Trade selectively. The best setups don’t come every five minutes, and forcing trades is like forcing a bad joke—it just doesn’t land. 💪 Fear, Greed, and the Art of Holding Your Ground Every trader knows the feeling: You’re in profit, but instead of letting the trade play out, you close early because profit is profit, right? Wrong. Fear of losing profits is what keeps traders from maximizing their wins. And greed—the evil twin of fear—is what makes traders hold losing trades, hoping for a miracle. It’s the classic “let winners run, cut losers short” rule in reverse. Technical traders know where their stops and targets are. The problem? They often ignore them when emotions take over. Psychological traders “feel” the market but get crushed when that gut feeling betrays them. The best traders find the balance—using technicals to set logical targets and psychology to actually stick to the plan. 🤝 The Solution? A System That Checks Both Boxes So, what’s the verdict? Do you put matter over mind or mind over matter? The truth is, great traders do both. They develop strategies based on technicals but manage execution with discipline. They respect risk management rules not just because the chart says so, but because they know how destructive emotions can be. Here’s what the best do differently: ✅ They journal trades —not just the setups but how they felt during the trade. ✅ They stick to a trading plan so they can trust their system over impulse. ✅ They set rules that help them to properly bounce back from losses . ✅ They know the value of knowledge and never stop learning. (We’ve got you covered here, too. Go check the Top Trading Books if you’re a trader and stop by the Top Books on Investing if you’re an investor). 💚 Final Thoughts: Mind and Market in Harmony In the end, trading is never just one or the other. It’s not pure math, and it’s not pure mindset. It’s a dance between structure and instinct, strategy and psychology. The ones who get it right aren’t just great at reading charts—they’re great at reading themselves.
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
20
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5915.Colleagues, I was waiting for the price to reach the support area of 5656, because the big corrective wave “IV” should end soon. I am still looking for a long entry point. I expect that wave “IV” has either ended or will soon end its downward movement in the 5656 area and we will see the beginning of an upward wave. I expect that the first target is the resistance area of 5915. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
Understanding Trump: chapter 3 - WAR and Waste of Defense BudgetWAR and Waste of Defense Budget The United States operates more than 750 military bases worldwide and spends $886 billion annually on defense. It is the world's largest military spender. Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has engaged in numerous wars around the world, pouring an enormous amount of money into conflicts. War is not just a military operation; it requires an overwhelming amount of financial resources. Looking at history, the biggest reason for the downfall of past empires was territorial expansion, endless wars, and the increasing cost of warfare. The Roman Empire, Spain, and Britain all followed the same pattern. They continuously fought wars, drained their national resources, and eventually collapsed. When looking at America's recent wars, it seems to be heading in a similar direction. U.S. War Spending Over the Last 50 Years Gulf War (1990–1991): $61 billion Somalia Civil War Intervention (1992–1994): $1.4 billion Bosnian War Intervention (1995): $3 billion Kosovo War Intervention (1999): $5 billion Afghanistan War (2001–2021): $2.3 trillion Iraq War (2003–2011): $1.9 trillion Libya Military Intervention (2011): $1 billion Syria Civil War Intervention (2014–present): $54 billion Yemen Civil War Support (2015–present): $5 billion Ukraine War Support (2022–present): $113 billion (as of 2024) This is all the money the U.S. has spent on wars in recent years. Considering that the Soviet Union collapsed after just one war in Afghanistan, it's quite remarkable that the U.S. has been able to engage in multiple wars and still sustain itself. In the past, the U.S. was considered the world's police force. However, when looking at the wars listed above, not many of them resulted in positive outcomes. Of course, if the U.S. had not actively intervened, there would have been far more ethnic conflicts, ideological wars, and massacres around the world. In fact, the free trade system that emerged after World War II was only possible because of U.S. naval dominance. Just like how we take the air we breathe for granted, if the U.S. had not been a dominant global power, international trade would have faced numerous problems and economic inefficiencies. However, over the past 50 years, has the U.S's war campaigns wasn't successfully Looking at wars like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, the U.S. spent enormous amounts of money, but the results were far from satisfactory. They justified these wars by claiming to spread democracy and overthrow dictatorships, yet despite the sacrifices of many American soldiers, the post-war situations in these countries remained chaotic. What’s Next for the U.S.? Trump’s main goal seems to be reducing war spending. This is an unfortunate news for Ukraine, but for the U.S., it is a strategic move to prevent itself from collapsing like Britain or the Roman Empire due to excessive military spending. From my perspective, Trump is not aiming to not really reduce U.S. military presence around the world, but rather to maintain influence while making other countries pay more. And eventually, the U.S. may choose not to engage in future wars. His push for increased defense spending from NATO and Asian allies is part of this strategy.
SP:SPX
by hcinteractivegames
SPX to dump 30% - 50% for Inflated Expectations in 2026I like to say the narrative follows the price . This was bound to happen after such an overheated year, couple years. Blame whomever you want, in the end its your wallet if you aren't ready to have your expectations met. Best case scenario, the breakout of macro is confirmed after the retest (blue arrows). Worst, more likely case, it smashes down to confirm a double bottom with a strong foundation to form a macro support. The sawtooth can provide opportunities for volatile scalps, but its gonna get gnarly I can already tell.
SP:SPXShort
by D4NKM4CH1N3
Is 5,400 Points the Bottom for the S&P 500? Key Levels You Need The S&P 500 Index has been experiencing a sharp downturn, heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies. This has had a ripple effect across risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely correlated with traditional markets. In this update, we analyze whether 5400 points could serve as a key bottoming level for the S&P 500 and what that means for broader market conditions. Technical Points to Consider: 5400 as a Key Support Zone – The index is approaching a major technical confluence zone, which includes a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a VWAP SR level from the October 2023 lows, and an open swing low. These factors suggest an oversold bounce may be imminent. Market Structure Breakdown – The S&P 500 has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to now potentially forming a lower low. A relief rally could lead to a lower high before continuation downward. Impact on Crypto Markets – If a short-term bottom forms in equities, we could see a correlated bounce in the cryptocurrency market, offering long trade opportunities in altcoins. The extreme oversold conditions in the market suggest that a relief bounce is highly probable. Markets often react to key technical levels, and the presence of multiple confluence factors at 5400 makes it a critical zone to watch. While a temporary bounce is expected, it is essential to consider whether this move will lead to a sustained recovery or merely a short-lived retracement before further downside. The structure of the bounce, volume inflows, and broader market sentiment will be key factors in determining the next trend. For cryptocurrency traders, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin means that any shift in equities could impact crypto price action. If the S&P 500 finds support and initiates a bounce, risk-on assets like altcoins may also experience relief rallies. However, these moves must be evaluated carefully—altcoins are often more volatile than equities, and chasing a bounce without confirmation could lead to unnecessary risk exposure. Identifying the right setups in this environment requires patience and a strategic approach. Ultimately, market timing and discipline will be crucial in navigating this potential bottoming process. If 5400 holds as support and a bullish structure begins forming, traders may find strong long opportunities in both traditional markets and crypto. However, if price fails to hold, a continuation lower could present an entirely new set of trading conditions. Waiting for market alignment, confirmed reversals, and volume support will be key before taking decisive action.
SP:SPX
by AzizKhanZamani
BUY SIGNAL into spiral turn 3/10 to 3/13 panic cycle see dec 8thThe Market has fallen right into the cycle the Panic cycle see dec 8th forecast for 2025 . put/call and most every model is set for a min 3 week sharp rally that rally if it is a 3 wave rally then the cycle degree wave 5 of 3 is ended .. BUT I see the decline into the dates and near the call for 9.8 to 11.3 % decline and worst case as stated in the forecast is 16.3 But the cycles is VERY BULLISH from this week On . I am 125 % longs in dec 2026 in the money and at the money calls . best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
18
Don't Miss Out We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 It Happened📉 Don't Miss Out – We Predicted S&P 500 Drop to 5740 , and It Happened! 🔥 In our previous recommendation, we clearly stated that S&P 500 would drop to 5740 , and it happened exactly as predicted, reaching the 61% Fibonacci level! ✅ 🚨 Will You Wait Until You Fall with Losing Stocks? 🚨 The market doesn’t wait, and opportunities don’t last forever! If you’ve been following our recommendations, you’ve avoided the collapsing stocks we warned about. ⚠️ Don’t let the market get ahead of you – Follow our recommendations to stay on the winning side! 🔥💰 #SPX500 #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestmentOpportunities
SP:SPX
by stocksfox
2