$SPX BOOOM Perfectly Nailed the Bottom in last nights video
5505/5485 Bull put spreads were the money play today on that drop. And of course that would have been the place to go long on the day.
SPIUSD trade ideas
SPX next 5 years outlookIn this chart I show my SPX long term view from covid recovery to about 2030.
SPX is moving in a big rising wedge, I think that on the long term prospective we're still in the 3rd bullish wave targeting 6440 area. From there I see a retracement (4th wave) to 4800 area before last bullish 5th wave to 7400 area.
From 7440 I see a sharp bearish retracement , the breaking of rising wedge will lead spx to target 4200 area.
On the medium term I think that we've to test 3320 area before targeting 6440 (completion of 3rd wave), but on the short term I see a retracement to retest 6000 area before dump to 3320.
Short SPX500Technical and fundamentals with short term sentiment open a tactical short position from here.
Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.March.31.2025 - Fri.April.4.2025Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
S&P500 BuysI've set a buy limit on this indice based on the ICT concept the sell to buy model mixed with the MMBM
US500 Price ActionHello Trader,
As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade.
Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably.
As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly.
Wishing you all the best and happy trading!
Thank you.
Tweet and ideaYou can use tweet and idea on ideas. For example, you can use Elon Musk tweets and ideas GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders.
Tweet and ideaYou can use tweet and idea on ideas. For example, you can use Elon Musk tweets and ideas GameStop’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Wow Traders.
Aggressive 0.16 Delta start - 0 DTE SPX Call Spread-5590 +5595
Normally I don't do Sell Side at such a high Delta, but SPX is crashing hard, technicals are hard to deny atm, taking advantage. Short term 0 DTE trade.
15% gain in premium.
pre market thoughtsA small bounce at open is expected but lower into the rest of the day to complete the pattern is likely as of now.
S&P500 INTRADAY down 1% in pre market tradingS&P 500 futures are down 1%, with global markets falling on US tariff concerns and tech weakness (Nasdaq 100 -1.4%, Nvidia & Tesla -3% premarket). The S&P 500 is down 5.1% for Q1, its worst quarter since 2022, as uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans (starting April 2) and a potential Russian oil ban weigh on sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5711
Resistance Level 2: 5788
Resistance Level 3: 5863
Support Level 1: 5487
Support Level 2: 5412
Support Level 3: 5262
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 during TRUMP's 2018 vs 2025 TRADE WAR.The S&P500 index (SPX) has started off the year in disappointing fashion as since mid-February the market has corrected by over -10% and of course almost all of it is attributed to the trade tariffs imposed by President Trump. As you know, this is not the first time Trump goes into a Trade War. The 1st has started in January 2018 when the first tariff announcements were made against China.
We can say that Trump's 2nd Trade War officially started on March 03 2025, with tariff implementations against Mexico, Canada and China. As you can see, the build up to both Trade Wars has been identical both in structural price count and in 1W RSI terms.
By the week of February 05 2018, the index has dropped by a little over -11%, hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and rebounded, while the 1W RSI formed a Lower Low. We can claim that this are roughly the levels we are now. That drop started a Megaphone pattern, which ran through all of 2018. The ultimate bottom for this Megaphone Trade War pattern came in December 24 2018 on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now, the 1W RSI is almost on Lower Lows while crossing below its 1W MA50 and what remains to be seen is if it will hit its 0.236 Fib to form the bottom of the Megaphone or will rebound now.
Do you think Trump's 2nd Trade War will keep the market highly volatile within a Megaphone or will plunge it even more?
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Bear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This WeekBear Hedge Trigger Hit - It’s Risk-Off This Week | SPX Analysis 31 Mar 2025
Well, it’s officially the start of a new week... and the end of the month. A time when markets often go a bit boing-boing as portfolio managers do their monthly “window dressing.” But let’s not get distracted by the glitter - Friday’s price action just ripped the rug out from under the bulls.
My SPX slippers barely had time to get comfy before I was forced to swap them for spiked bear boots. Again.
Friday’s break through my bear hedge trigger flipped the script, and now I’m locked into bear mode until the charts convince me otherwise. And right now? They’re not even trying.
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Bear Flag Breakdown: What the Charts Are Screaming 🐻
Let’s break it down trader-to-trader...
Friday’s move confirmed the break of a textbook bear flag.
My target for this bear swing now sits at 5140, and unless we break above 5700, the bear case remains fully intact.
Short-term? I'm bearish through 5500, watching 5555 as a gamma inflection point which could accelerate the bear move.
Here’s what makes this particularly spicy:
Overnight futures are down nearly 1% - not the Monday morning bounce you’d expect if bulls were in charge.
GEX is stacked with puts - if we breach 5555, market makers may accelerate the drop by hedging and reducing positive gamma exposure.
Momentum is gaining. And it feels like we’ve seen this film before...
🎞️ Rewind to 2022…
Remember that slow grind lower in 2022 where every bounce got sold, and traders kept trying to “buy the dip” only to get steamrolled?
Yeah. This move is shaping up the same way.
A pattern break. A bearish continuation. And if we follow the 2022 script... buckle up. The bears may just be getting started, and the rest of the year could get nasty.
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Expert Insights: Avoid These Bear Market Mistakes
🔻 Mistake #1: Trading What You Hope Will Happen
Stop “buying the dip” because you want it to bounce. Trade what’s in front of you.
🔻 Mistake #2: Using the Wrong System for This Environment
Bullish systems don’t work in bear trends. You need a mechanical system that thrives on volatility (like mine).
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Fun Fact
In 2018, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 20% in December alone, marking one of the worst year-end sell-offs in history. The culprit? A mix of Fed tightening and market-wide panic.
🧐 Fast forward to today… and while the catalyst may differ, market structure patterns have a funny way of rhyming, don’t they?
The Stock Market Decline Appears to be only in the US as of nowLast week on one of my member live videos I pointed out to the attendees that European markets were currently at, or very close to their All-Time highs...whereas in the US, we've entered the technical definition of a stock market correction...(down 10%). If you're so inclined to Google an economic calendar, it also appears the economic metrics like CPI, unemployment, etc... appear much better as well. There's an old adage in the markets.... "When the US sneezes, the global economy catches a cold" . However, at this very moment in time, the only thing that appears sick is the US. Maybe that changes with time. I suspect that will be the case...but in any event, one thing that is clear is that our stock market indices are signaling that whatever economic sickness is to be contracted, it will have originated here...in the United States.
That is certainly a new phenomenon.
For the past couple years I have been warning my members (and followers here on Trading View) of a long-term top in the stock markets. Week after week in my trading room, I have commented that I believe I have all constituent waves accounted for, to the best of my ability, to say with a high degree of confidence that a super-cycle wave (III) has topped .
What we have lacked is the price action to confirm that statement. This morning, I cannot tell you we have confirmation. That confirming probability only comes when price declines below the area of the wave 4 of one lesser degree. That area is outlined in the SPX daily chart entitled the "Must Hold Region". We are not there yet, nor do I think price makes a bee-line there in one shot. Therefore, I am NOT in panic mode this morning because I do believe we need a retrace higher and only that retracement's structure will inform us the higher probability of future price subdivisions....(higher or lower).
Panic is the necessary trader behavior needed to decline in such fashion as I believe a super cycle wave (IV) will start out. However personally, I do not think it's today. Futures are red this morning and closer to the recent lows than last week...the headlines surrounding the stock market appear very negative...but as of this morning, the MACD indicator on intraday charts is saying this type of sentiment is getting slightly weaker and NOT making new lows.
Therefore, I continue to maintain the price and technical indications tell me a minor B is either currently underway, or will be confirmed in the short term. Until those parameters get flipped, I'll reserve my panic (so to speak) for the c of (c) of intermediate (A) into the must hold region later this year... where it will probably be justified at that time.
Best to all,
Chris
How low will it go? The S&P Bear MarketI don't believe the market has bottomed yet. There is more to come.
Trump's tariffs will continue to cause uncertainty and as economic figures confirm a US slowdown, stock markets could fall further.
From a technical perspective, I will be looking to buy between 4700 and 5200. This is based on evident weekly horizontal levels, bullish channel support, and 100 and 200 SMA's.
VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
SPX500 Long at 55301. All timeframes are massively oversold due to the huge sell-off on Friday night
2. It is the start of the week, and it opened at the low, which tends to mean there would be some strength to go up
3. Unfortunately, I cannot check if there is a harmonic pattern due to technical difficulties.
4. This is at excellent support as it is at the year low
5. There is a lot of divergence due to this not being a long consolidation try to exit at M15 overbought
6. Stop loss below 5500
SPY divergenceI see a lot of divergence in the SPY.
Looks like a push into trend-line support for me then we add tier 3 buys.
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory.
Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,405.74
1st Support: 5,176.07
1st Resistance: 5,769.85
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
