Mid term shortWe expect a drop in the price that broke the 200-hour moving average towards the main correction level of 38.2%, and if this level is broken, a decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is anticipated.
With the expectation of a 0.50-point rate cut from the FED in September starting to decrease to 0.25 points, we may see a correction movement in the U.S. stock markets overall.
Additionally, the recovery in the DXY and the breakout of the short-term downward channel also strengthen our expectation. We recommend setting the stop-loss level above the previous peak.
SPIUSD trade ideas
SPx - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Key Economic Data AwaitsS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading below the pivot level of 5454, with a potential downside target of 5412. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5456 and 5412 until a breakout occurs. A sustained move above 5454 would likely support a rise towards 5490 and potentially 5526. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5454 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5454
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5412, 5460, 5328
Expected Trading Range: 5471 - 5412
Trend: Short-term downtrend
-----------------
Monetary Policy Shift Anticipated Amid Key Economic Releases
With the economy in balance and inflation trending toward the 2% target, it is now seen as appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate.
Currently, U.S. rate futures indicate a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
In the coming week, the spotlight will be on the U.S. consumer inflation report for August. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor other key economic indicators, including the U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
US500 LONGUS100
LONG
PLEASE DONβT BE GREEDY
ENTRY POINT : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG POSITION
above red Line for SHORT POSITION
INSTRUCTIONS:
FOR risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X β€20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X β₯ 20
US500
LONG
ENTRY 5443
TP 5478 5520 5560 5600
SL 5380
like, boost, be followers
PLEASE DONβT BE GREEDY
SPX: NFP shaped sentimentNegative investors sentiment marked the previous week on the US equity markets. At the start of the week a news hit the market that market favorite tech company Nvidia was charged by the U.S. Justice Department for violence of antitrust law in the US. As news is reporting, charges came from company Xockets Inc for illegal use of the company's patents related to data processing units used in AI technology. This was the initial timing of the general selloff on financial markets. Another negative news was released on Friday, when the US non farm payrolls hit the levels below market anticipated ones. During August, the US economy added 142K new jobs, while the market was expecting to see a figure near 160K. The combination of negative news and sentiment brought the S&P 500 to its worst week in 2024. The index started the week at the level of 5.645 and finished it at 5.505, about 2,5% lower. The drop was mostly led by tech companies.
A weak jobs data is turning investors to reconsider their expectations of the earnings of companies in the US in the coming period. Increasing number of analysts is pointing to a possibility of a recession in the US. Investors are now increasing expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 bps at their September meeting, in order to diminish further decline of the economy and jobs market. By the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there are almost equal numbers of participants who are expecting a 25 bps and 50 bps rate cut.
Analysts are in agreement that the market currently does not have a clue in which direction to trade. At this moment investors are turning their eyes toward the Fed for guidance. In this sense, some further volatility might be expected at the US equity markets, until September 19th, when the Fed will shape the sentiment and final direction of equity markets.
US500 priming for the next jump up or BIG crash down 24%!SP500 right now is in an uptrend since November 2023.
If the price holds, we will conitnue to see all time highs and there'll be sunshine and ranbows.
If the Double TOp breaks below, we are talking a potential 24% crash down to 4,116.
So we are at an alert rate to watch and observe and act accordingly.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl area 5374.Dear colleagues, at the moment I believe that the price is in the upward impulse of wave β1β, I assume that soon it will end and the correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5374 will begin. It is quite possible that the price is already completing wave β1β and the downward movement will start soon.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US500 and the Elliott Wave Mega Cycle: What Lies Ahead?
Great-Things, traders and market enthusiasts! It's Lord Medz here, bringing you another detailed analysis on the US500, this time from the perspective of the Elliott Wave Principle. Buckle up because we are diving deep into the long-term charts and cycles, looking at what could be a crucial moment in the stock market's journey over the next several years.
The Elliott Wave Principle and the US500
For those who may not be familiar, the Elliott Wave Principle is a technical analysis theory used to forecast market cycles by identifying repetitive wave patterns. In this case, we are focusing on the US500 index, where we believe a mega cycleβconsisting of five supercycle wavesβhas potentially completed its course over the past 8.4 years.
Here's what we're seeing:
Five Supercycle Waves: The US500 has been moving through a bullish impulse pattern for nearly a decade. Each supercycle leg, as we know, is made up of five smaller impulse waves, and historically, after the completion of a supercycle, the market tends to pull back.
Recent Pullbacks: Let's take a look at some recent examples of these pullbacks:
2020: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the market retraced a massive 75%, briefly shaking the foundations of the financial world. But it wasnβt the end of the mega cycleβmerely a correction within the broader trend.
2022: Another notable retracement occurred, this time by 50%. Yet again, the market rebounded quickly, suggesting we were still within the bounds of the mega cycle.
Whatβs Next? Possible Scenarios for the US500
If this mega cycle truly has ended, as suggested by the completion of five major waves, then we could be looking at a significant correction phase. Here's what we are considering:
The 33% Drop to 3750: The US500 could be setting up for a retracement of around 33%, which would pull the index down to the 3750 level. This level corresponds to a typical correction after such an extended wave cycle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this would be a normal and healthy pullback after a long-term bullish impulse.
Breaking the Swing Low at 3520: If the market breaks below the swing low at 3520, it could signal something much more ominousβa potential shift in the entire market structure from bullish to bearish. A break below this critical level could trigger widespread selling and possibly bring us into what some fear may resemble the Great Depression of the 1930s.
A Time of Caution or Opportunity?
Now, before you jump to conclusions, let me be clear: this is not financial advice. These scenarios are possibilities based on historical price action and the Elliott Wave theory. The markets are always unpredictable, and there are always risks. But itβs worth noting that markets go through cycles, and understanding these cycles can give traders a clearer perspective on what might come next.
Should the US500 drop to 3750, it could represent an opportunity for patient traders looking for value in a pullback. However, if we see a break below 3520, it might be time to reassess the broader outlook.
Final Thoughts
The US500 has enjoyed a spectacular rise over the last decade, powered by strong fundamentals and unprecedented market liquidity. But as the Elliott Wave Principle suggests, every bullish impulse eventually faces a corrective phase. The real question now is how deep this correction will go.
Stay sharp, manage your risk, and always have a game plan. If the Elliott Wave cycles are playing out as expected, we could be in for an eventful few years.
Until next time, trade smart and stay safe.
Peace, Lord MEDZ.
SPX500 OutlookπΉ Indices:
ποΈ Outlook
Long Term time frame (5hr): We have been breaking bearish on the 5hr and showing strength to the downside.
Long Term (5hr): Price however is over extended and needs to build liquidity over the week.
Intermediate frame (30m): This is what I am expecting for the sessions to look like by the time its NY session.
I believe we could be seeing longs for the start of the week on Indices to build that liquidity. I will be looking for longs Monday NY session depending how price looks at 8:30am EST.
Keeping an eye on this. ποΈ
SPX-H4SPX_H4
Maybe I'm too optimistic about the market, but I expected a short rally by the end of the week, from point to point mentioned.
US500 Top-Down Analysis and Harmonic PatternUS500 Top-Down Analysis and Harmonic Pattern
The US500 is currently testing its all-time high zone, which was last tested on July 15, 2024. This critical area could determine the next major move for the index.
Whatβs next?
You can watch the analysis for further details
Thank you:)
Mastering Trading ConfluenceIn the world of trading, success often hinges on making informed decisions based on reliable analysis. However, relying on a single indicator or tool can sometimes lead to false signals and missed opportunities. This is where the concept of trading confluence comes into play. Trading confluence refers to the alignment of multiple indicators, tools, or analysis techniques to confirm trading signals, thereby increasing the probability of a successful trade.
π΅ππ·π°π πΈπ πππ°π³πΈπ½πΆ π²πΎπ½π΅π»ππ΄π½π²π΄?
Confluence in trading is the process of combining different technical analysis tools to identify high-probability trading opportunities. Instead of relying on a single indicator, traders look for areas where multiple indicators or strategies align, providing a stronger signal for entering or exiting a trade. These tools might include price action analysis, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, support and resistance levels, or even fundamental analysis. When several tools point to the same conclusion, the signal is considered more robust, reducing the likelihood of false positives and improving the chances of a successful trade.
π΅ππ·π πΈπ π²πΎπ½π΅π»ππ΄π½π²π΄ πΈπΌπΏπΎπππ°π½π?
The financial markets are complex, with numerous factors influencing price movements. Relying on a single indicator can lead to inconsistent results, as no indicator is infallible. By using confluence, traders can:
Increase Confidence in Trade Decisions : When multiple indicators confirm the same signal, it provides traders with greater confidence to act on that signal, knowing that it is backed by various forms of analysis.
Filter Out False Signals : Indicators sometimes produce false signals. By requiring alignment between different tools, confluence helps filter out these false positives, leading to more reliable trading decisions.
Enhance Risk Management : Confluence allows traders to pinpoint more precise entry and exit points, which can lead to tighter stop-loss levels and better risk-reward ratios. This, in turn, can improve overall portfolio performance.
π΅π·πΎπ ππΎ πππ΄ π²πΎπ½π΅π»ππ΄π½π²π΄ πΈπ½ πππ°π³πΈπ½πΆ
To effectively use confluence in your trading strategy, consider the following steps:
Select Complementary Indicators : Choose indicators that complement each other rather than those that replicate the same information. For example, combining a momentum indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a trend-following indicator like a Moving Average can provide a more comprehensive view of market conditions.
Identify Key Levels : Look for confluence at key levels such as support and resistance zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, or pivot points. When price action aligns with these levels and is confirmed by multiple indicators, it suggests a higher probability trade setup.
Confluence of Chart Patterns and Oscillator
One powerful example of confluence is when a chart pattern like Equal Highs (EQH) aligns with a momentum indicator such as the Stochastic RSI. This combination provides more confidence in determining the trend direction.
When both the EQH pattern and Stochastic RSI align, such as when price hits equal highs while the Stochastic RSI shows overbought conditions, traders can have increased confidence in anticipating a trend reversal.
Combining Same-Type Indicators
- Using multiple trend-following indicators, such as the Aroon, Directional Movement Index (DMI), and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), can enhance your ability to identify strong trends and avoid false signals. These indicators complement each other by offering different perspectives on trend strength and direction.
- Combining multiple mean reversion indicators can provide stronger signals for potential price reversals. This approach helps in identifying overbought or oversold conditions with greater confidence. Here are some ways to create confluence using mean reversion indicators:
When multiple indicators align to show overbought or oversold conditions, it provides a stronger signal for a possible price reversal. However, it's important to remember that even with confluence, no indicator combination is foolproof, and proper risk management should always be employed.
Use Multiple Time Frames : Analyzing confluence across different time frames can provide additional confirmation. For instance, if a bullish signal is confirmed on both the daily and hourly charts, it strengthens the case for entering a long position.
Multiple timeframe analysis is a highly effective strategy in technical analysis, as it allows traders to see the broader picture of market trends and zoom into shorter-term price movements. One common approach is to apply a 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) across different timeframes, such as 3D, 1D, 12H, and 4H charts, to assess trend strength and direction.
By combining these timeframes with the 50-period SMA, traders can assess whether the trend is aligned across different perspectives. For example, if the price is above the 50-SMA on the 3D and 1D charts but below it on the 4H chart, it might signal a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend. This confluence of trend analysis across multiple timeframes provides a more robust trading strategy.
Combine Technical and Fundamental Analysis : While technical indicators are the primary tools for identifying confluence, integrating fundamental analysis (such as economic reports, earnings releases, or geopolitical events) can further validate your trading decisions.
Practice Patience and Discipline : Trading confluence requires patience. Itβs important not to force trades when indicators are not in alignment. Waiting for confluence signals can prevent impulsive trades and improve your long-term success rate.
π΅π»πΈπΌπΈππ°ππΈπΎπ½π πΎπ΅ πππ°π³πΈπ½πΆ π²πΎπ½π΅π»ππ΄π½π²π΄
While trading confluence can significantly enhance your trading strategy, itβs important to acknowledge its limitations:
Overfitting : Relying on too many indicators can lead to overfitting, where the analysis becomes too complex, and signals become rare or conflicting. It's essential to strike a balance and avoid excessive complexity.
Subjectivity : Confluence can be somewhat subjective, as traders might interpret the alignment of indicators differently. Developing a consistent and disciplined approach to identifying confluence is key.
Delayed Signals : Waiting for multiple indicators to align can sometimes result in missed opportunities, especially in fast-moving markets. Traders should be aware of the trade-off between signal reliability and timing.
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Trading confluence is a powerful concept that can enhance the quality of your trading decisions by providing more reliable signals and reducing the risk of false positives. By combining complementary indicators, analyzing multiple time frames, and incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis, traders can increase their confidence and improve their overall performance. However, itβs important to remain mindful of the potential limitations and to apply confluence in a disciplined and balanced manner.
By mastering trading confluence, youβll be better equipped to navigate the complexities of the market and make informed decisions that align with your trading goals.
SPX: A Double Top at the peak could lead to a short-term fall!
The chart depicts a steady upward trend of the index.
After reaching an all-time high close to the 5,670 level, the index saw a significant decline, dropped by nearly 550 points.
However, after a recovery, the index once again neared its previous high, but experienced another setback.
The emergence of a Double Top pattern, along with a clear RSI divergence, indicates that the index may face difficulties in the near future.
On the downside, immediate support is found between the 5,250 and 5,300 levels.
A break below this support could lead to a considerable drop in the index.
SPX- Prepare YourselfThere is so much we could say about why SPX and the market in general seems to be headed towards a generational top...but it would just be repeating what we have been yelling from the rooftops for the last year or so lol
We will save the history lesson and say check out the related links
But know this...YOU WERE WARNED
Could we be wrong? Of course we can be wrong
But what if we arent?
Simple charts and methods can make money!It's a late summer Saturday afternoon and I am writing this so you don't have to! Lot's of people don't have time to watch the market all day and night. Here is a bare bones daily chart that you can easily construct from default configured Trading View community indicators and even more easily discern the correct market position. ONLY BE IN THE MARKET WHEN THE PRICE IS ABOVE OR BELOW BOTH INDICATORS. Configure TV Alerts from the SPX price cross of the indicators and be on your way. I position in pre and post SPX ETF markets off this chart Happy Trades! And now I'm going fishing. DAP
S&P500 Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5320 zone, US500 was trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 5320 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Stock Market Potential >>>Thin Air Drop !With emphasis on the possibility,
a look at the charts this weekend reveals a
potential micro crash thin air drop in the US stock market developing.
The accompanying chart included here
shows all that "thin air" below the next support of SPX 5400-5370.
Also warning you here is the VIX, Volatility Fear Index,
is poised to rise dramatically, if panic gets released right now.
The almost sudden realization that the US economy
could have already reached a tipping point,
is playing into fears of a potential highly overvalued and priced stock market.
If triggered,that is the kind of big money distribution or selling,
you would not want to see right now,
..especially if price starts dropping thru "thin air" on the chart.
SPX Last 5408.43
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
Decision time for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made a big move down into the Daily FVG.
For next week we could this pair go up from here to finish the last impulsive leg (wave 5).
But if it closes below the Daily FVG we could see more downside.
So next week is decision time.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
Or wait for the close below the Daily FVG on the Daily timeframe and trade shorts after a correction up.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SP500 UNDER PRESSURE tremd down I basically dont like to make any analysis on daily but due to clear of the picture i assume that sp is in down trend now.... for moment sell
Downward impulse now?Expanded flat scenario still intact, within which wave of wave 1 of wave (C) could have just started.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Throughout the trading sessions of the current week, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated significant downward movement, completing an Inner Index Dip at 5408 and establishing a new Mean Resistance level at 5530. There is a strong likelihood of a rebound to this level. Further, emphasis is placed on achieving the extended downward move to the target marked at Mean Support 5344, where a resilient rebound is anticipated.
SP500: Possible bearish scenario for 2024 - 2026Parallels between 2003-2009 and 2018-2024 are showing that there are fundamental and technical similarities of the mentioned periods.
I anticipate extreme bearish movement of SP500 for the next 18 months
I think it's time to reshort this SPX rally.Previously i shorted the picotop on SP:SPX and closed it on the bottom on 5th of august. As i stated in that idea, i still believe markets will get more volatile as we approach the US elections. I think as long as we don't make an ATH here, it's smart to short this rally back down. NFA.
