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SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more). Simplifying the complex is the key to success. Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain. It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!! The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such. The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such. 1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical. 2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy. 3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets. 4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025. 5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index. In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either. The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered. On linear, it looks like this: The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022 SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump) Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022 SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69 The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SpartaBTC
5
SPX in Consolidation Bearish Outlook Unless Key Resistance BreakTechnical Analysis: The price currently trades within a liquidity zone between 5,849 and 5,891, showing consolidation. A retest of this liquidity zone is likely, with a potential rejection if the price fails to break above 5,891. If the price breaks and holds above the 5,891 level, the next target would be the resistance line at around 5,939. On the downside, a rejection from the liquidity zone could send the price back down towards the support line near 5,825 or even further towards 5,781. Retest Possibility: A retest of the liquidity zone between 5,849 and 5,891 is probable. If the price holds below this zone, a bearish move is expected. Correct Direction: Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5,891 and the liquidity zone holds as resistance, the price is likely to move towards 5,825 or lower. Bullish: If the price breaks and closes above 5,891, a bullish continuation towards 5,939 is expected. The overall bias is bearish unless there is a confirmed breakout above the liquidity zone. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5863 Resistance Levels: 5891, 5915, 5939 Support Levels: 5836, 5807, 5781 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5863 Bullish above 5891
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Forecasting: A Complex TaskForecasting the S&P 500 index is a challenging endeavor due to the multitude of factors that influence its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Key Factors to Consider: Economic Indicators: GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock prices. Interest Rates: Rising interest rates can put downward pressure on stock prices, while falling rates can boost them. Inflation: High inflation can erode corporate profits and investor confidence. Corporate Earnings: Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings are often a positive sign for the stock market. Earnings Expectations: The market's expectations for future earnings can influence stock prices. Geopolitical Events: Global Conflicts: Political instability or geopolitical tensions can create uncertainty and impact market sentiment. Trade Wars: Trade disputes or tariffs can disrupt global supply chains and affect corporate profits. Investor Sentiment: Risk Appetite: Market sentiment can shift rapidly, influenced by factors like economic data, geopolitical events, and market psychology. Fear and Greed Index: This indicator can provide insights into investor emotions. Forecasting Methods: Fundamental Analysis: This involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events to assess the underlying value of the S&P 500. Technical Analysis: This method uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements. Quantitative Analysis: This approach employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence the S&P 500. It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact the S&P 500. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
SP:SPX
by ITManager_US
SPX Hitting Extreme Resistance Level - Epic Crash imminentBack in October 2021 I attempted to project a fibonacci ration that would predict the top of the current market cycle from the bottom of the 2008/2009 crash. I used smaller fibonacci rations such as the 236 and 146 to identify where a fibonacci from the top would end up. The result was approximately 5814. We passed this level this week and there is weakness showing. I believe this week ends with some type of abandoned baby pattern then we see the drop. I'm not sure what this corresponds to on a fundamental analysis level, but this one will be big. This would end a 5 wave elliot pattern Super Cycle from the 1920's crash where the 4th wave was the 2008/2009. Good luck everyone!
TVC:SPXShort
by Cavedrew
31
usdjpy us500 us100 long resultsusdjpy long target 1 done 31% lev x 100 6% lev x 20 us100 Target 1 done 35% lev x 100 7% levx 20 Us500 target 1 done 25% lev x 100 5%LEVX 20 congratulations followers Trading is not easy, there are difficult times too. However, with a lot of courage and strategies, we always end up coping with these bad moments. Don't be afraid to hit stop losses, there is no shame in hitting stop losses. fame doesn't make you a bad trader. Even a good trader does not win all of his trades, but he wins more than 75% of them or at least he remains positive or stable in his wallet.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by RODDYTRADING
SPX500 at Resistance: Breakout Potential or Reversal Ahead?S&P500 INDEX The price is in a consolidation zone near the resistance level of 5,891.1. If it breaks above this zone, the next resistance target is around 5,950. If it fails to break through the resistance, a pullback is likely, targeting the support area around 5,863 and potentially dropping further towards 5,781 if bearish momentum continues. Best Direction: Bullish: If the price breaks and holds above 5,891.1, this would indicate further upward potential. Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5,891.1 and reverses, a short-term downward move toward the support levels is anticipated. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5891 - 5863 Resistance Levels: 5891, 5915, 5939 Support Levels: 5836, 5807, 5759 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5863 Bullish above 5891
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.17.24 Tomorrow’s Implied move is between 5805 and 5880 and that is from options. The 30 day average volatility is between 5785 and 5900 and that also lines up with the implied move on Fridays contract - and that’s the strike I’ll be looking to if we pop to sell bear call spreads. To the upside we have ATH’s at 5871.41. I’m guessing that if NYSE:TSM earnings come in great and we see a move up there then ATH’s will be the Target on the day. But if not, then the 35EMA is just underneath us so look to that for clues. If we break it then support is where we saw the gap that we opened the week with (5815) and then underneath that the bottom of the implied move is at 5805 5790 on Fridays contract and that’s the strike I’m going to look to if we drop ( for bull put spreads) Underneath all of that is the 30min 200MA and we are quite far away from that. It’s not in tomorrow’s trading range but could be a target next week if we see a down move from tomorrow’s earnings. GL tomorrow, y’all
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
What Is the S&P 500 Index and How to Trade It via CFDs?What Is the S&P 500 Index and How to Trade It via CFDs? The S&P 500 index is a cornerstone of the financial world, providing a snapshot of the US stock market by tracking 500 of the largest companies. This FXOpen article delves into the essence of the S&P 500, its operational mechanics, and how traders can navigate its movements through CFDs. What Is the S&P 500? The S&P 500 index, established in 1957, serves as a barometer for the US economic health, tracking the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best representations of the US stock market and a leading indicator of other US equities. The index is managed by Standard & Poor's, a division of S&P Global, and is updated to reflect changes in the market and economy. Inclusion in the S&P 500 is based on several criteria, such as market capitalisation, liquidity, domicile, public float, financial viability, and the length of time publicly traded. Market capitalisation, in particular, is a critical factor, ensuring that the index reflects the largest and most stable companies that meet Standard & Poor's stringent requirements. The criteria may change, so you can check the latest updates on the S&P Dow Jones Indices website. The index uses a market capitalisation-weighted formula. In essence, market capitalisation weighting means those with a greater value, like Apple or Microsoft, have an outsized impact on the index’s movements. The calculation involves summing the adjusted market capitalisation of all 500 companies and dividing it by a divisor, a proprietary figure adjusted by Standard & Poor's to account for changes such as stock splits, dividends, and mergers. S&P 500 stocks span all sectors of the economy, from technology and health care to financials and consumer discretionary. This broad sector diversification makes the index a valuable tool for investors seeking exposure to the entire US economy through a single investment. The diversity and size of the companies included in the index also mean that it can serve as a benchmark for the performance of investment funds and portfolios. What Moves the S&P 500? Anyone learning how to invest in the S&P 500 will inevitably realise that a range of factors drives its movements. These include: - Economic Indicators: Data such as US GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation can sway investor sentiment and market performance. - Corporate Earnings: Quarterly earnings reports from companies within the index provide insights into their financial health, impacting their stock prices and the overall index. - Interest Rates: Decisions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates can affect investor behaviour, as they influence borrowing costs and investment returns. - Global Events: Political instability, geopolitical tensions, and global economic developments can lead to market volatility, affecting the index. - Market Sentiment: Investors' perceptions and reactions to news and events play a crucial role in short-term market movements. These elements combined dictate the daily and long-term trends seen in the S&P 500. Trading the S&P 500 Index with CFDs Trading the S&P 500 index has become a preferred method for investors seeking exposure to the performance of the US equity market. While S&P 500 ETFs, such as SPY, offer a popular way to invest directly in the performance of the 500 companies making up the index, many traders opt for S&P 500 Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for enhanced flexibility. S&P 500 CFDs allow traders to speculate on the index's price movements without owning the underlying assets. This trading instrument mirrors the price movements of the S&P 500, enabling traders to open positions on both rising and falling markets. A key advantage of S&P 500 CFDs is the ability to use leverage, which can amplify returns. However, you should remember that leverage also increases risks. Traders can go long (buy) if they anticipate the index will rise or go short (sell) if they expect it to fall. As with all CFDs, traders must consider factors such as the spread—the difference between the buy and sell prices—and the overnight financing cost, or swap, which may be charged when positions are held open past the market close. Understanding these costs is crucial for effective trading. At FXOpen, we offer both US SPX 500 mini (S&P 500 E-mini at FXOpen) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) CFDs in our TickTrader platform, catering to all traders looking to take advantage of the movements in one of the world’s most-followed equity indices. How You Can Trade S&P 500 CFDs Trading S&P 500 CFDs requires a nuanced approach, given the index's unique characteristics and the broader economic factors influencing it. Leveraging Economic Releases The S&P 500 is particularly sensitive to US economic indicators such as employment data, inflation reports, and GDP figures. Traders can use these releases to gauge market sentiment and anticipate potential movements. For instance, stronger-than-expected economic growth can boost the index, while disappointing data may lead to declines. Monitoring Earnings Seasons Given that the S&P 500 comprises 500 of the largest US companies, their quarterly earnings reports are a significant driver of index performance. Traders often keep a close eye on earnings seasons, as positive surprises from key index constituents can lead to upward movements, while negative reports can drag the index down. Following Federal Reserve Announcements Interest rate decisions and monetary policy statements from the Federal Reserve have a profound impact on the S&P 500. Lower interest rates generally support higher index levels by reducing the cost of borrowing and encouraging investment, whereas hints of rate hikes can cause declines. Utilising Technical Analysis For S&P 500 CFDs, technical analysis can be particularly insightful. Support and resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages can help traders identify potential entry and exit points. Given the index's liquidity and the vast number of traders watching these indicators, technical analysis can be a powerful tool. Applying Risk Management Due to the leverage involved in CFD trading, effective risk management is crucial. Setting stop-loss orders can potentially help protect against significant losses, especially during volatile market conditions. Additionally, position sizing is an important consideration, potentially limiting the risk exposure of a given trade. Final Thoughts Understanding the complexities and opportunities of trading the S&P 500 index, particularly through CFDs, offers a strategic advantage for those looking to navigate the financial markets. For those ready to dive into the dynamic world of S&P 500 trading, opening an FXOpen account can provide the necessary tools, resources, and platform to engage with the market effectively. Whether you're looking to trade the S&P 500 or explore other asset classes, FXOpen offers a gateway to a wide range of trading opportunities in the global markets. FAQ What Stocks Make Up the S&P 500? The S&P 500 consists of 500 of the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. Companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google's parent company, Alphabet, are significant contributors, given their large market capitalisations. Check the list here. What Is the Difference Between the Nasdaq and the S&P 500? The Nasdaq is tech-centric, including a large number of technology and biotech companies, while the S&P 500 is broader and viewed as a more comprehensive representation of the US economy. Is an S&P 500 Index a Good Investment? Since its inception, the S&P 500 index has delivered a historical return of around 9.9% annually. However, like any investment, it carries risks, and its past performance is not a guarantee of future results. What Is the 20-year Return of the S&P 500? The 20-year return, between 2004 and 2023, stands at 9%. What Is the S&P 500 All-Time High? The S&P 500's all-time high can vary as the market fluctuates. Its most recent all-time high was 5,100.92 on the 23rd of February, 2024. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
2
If you're bullish on this, you need your hea examined.It's all in the title. This chart shows the entire market structure of the SPX from 1929 until now in an ascending wedge and just barely wicking over the top trend. We currently have met every pre-condition for a recession including a 2 year long yield curve inversion, bank unrealized losses 10X what they were prior to the crash of 2008, the Sahm rule having triggered with over a 1% spike in unemployment within the fiscal year, the first fed pivot to make the initial 50 basis points instead of 25, and the DXY on they way up. Bitcoin, and other assets will take damage when the SPX starts it's decline... possibly this week or next week.
SP:SPX
by fishguru73
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term. Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term. So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles. To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years. In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012. In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown. The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment. The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle). The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'. Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price). We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find. The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections. I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions. Tim 10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
SP:SPX
by timwest
5