SP500 SP 500, Parabolic move coming in equities soon. Livermore Speculative ChartLongby coding_thoughtsPublished 2
Clear Rollover Market TopNo one really saw this coming A world economic slowdown at our doorstep...? Right now...? Talk about an early Halloween trick or treat. Just 48 hours ago, the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman of the United States exuded confidence that the central bank was threading the needle on both dual mandates on their charge, inflation and job growth. Well so much for that. Todays US job report for June,squashed the endless bubble that had been brewing. US economic growth and massive debt financing,finally caught up with big business. Don't feel too sorry for them. They still make billions. Technically the two charts included here,show a clear rollover stock market top. I mean if it wasn't so classic a rollover pattern it then it wouldn't have been so obvious. The S+P 500 has topped, and rolled over. The VIX hit 30 today. SPX Close 5346.55 I'll let you guess how this is all going to play out,.. in the weeks and months ahead. THE_UNWIND WOODS OF CONNECTICUT Shortby The_UnwindPublished 7
Time to Exit?Although i will not be taking my own advice... Looking at the SPX and comparing it to the USINTR (US Int Rates) historyically, it looks like the best time to sell is right before they begin to cut rates and the best time to buy is right when they finally stop cutting rates... I'm too deep in the market and my plan still has more time in it so i'm not exiting until 2025... Lets see how this cookie crumbles... May the luck forever be in our favor. Z - 8/2/24 7pmby Zavon123Published 1
SP500 Ending Diagonal from the COVID low.Here's a potential SP500 wave count. The current selloff looks like a ABC corrective pattern a 3-3-5 wave count if the current selloff is the 5 wave C wave down to complete the selloff. It just needs a lower low to complete the 5 waves down from the high of the B wave.by RonBjustromPublished 0
A potential SP500 wave countHere's a potential SP500 wave count. The current selloff looks like a ABC corrective pattern a 3-3-5 wave count if the current selloff is the 5 wave C wave down to complete the selloff. It just needs a lower low to complete the 5 waves down from the high of the B wave.by RonBjustromPublished 0
Potential Wave Count for SP500Here's a potential SP500 wave count. The current selloff looks like a ABC corrective pattern a 3-3-5 wave count if the current selloff is the 5 wave C wave down to complete the selloff. It just needs a lower low to complete the 5 waves down from the high of the B wave.Longby RonBjustromPublished 0
S&P 500 makes island top today indicates more selling to come 5%Bearish case - Island top reversal made today suggests further selling unless the gap can be closed Expect the price to move back to the 200EMA which is 5% away If it does not stop there it could be a small trend change as it happened on NFP non farm payrolls day Not advice only for educational purposes Shortby William_PlayfairPublished 3
SPX | Market Cycles, Life Cycles & The Technological CycleThe biggest index in the world, goes bearish... Hello my dear reader, are you ready for more? The markets have been around for hundreds and hundreds of years. The markets will continue to exist for hundreds and hundreds of years more. We cannot let negativity take the best of us. We cannot lose focus because the market is doing what it is supposed to do and what it has always done; it moves through different cycles, alternating between down and up. We cannot fight between each other just because it is night, and soon, it will become day. At one point in time we have summer but then comes winter, after a short while, summer again. We can see cycles all throughout nature; the flowers, the animals, the moon, the sun and the stars. The markets are no different, everything is part of nature and thus the market must follow a cyclic pattern because life is not random at all. The good news is that we know that it doesn't matter what happens, it is not the end of the world. Prices can move down, and this immediately guarantees that eventually they will move back up. The long-term trend is maximum growth and this positive ascending life cycle is only starting... We are set to experience thousands and thousands of years of sustained growth. The SPX Technical Analysis We will be looking at mainly two signals: 1) Rising wedge. A rising wedge pattern has already been broken, with three consecutive weeks closing red. These are strong red candles supported by high volume. 2) MACD bearish divergence. The SPX produced a strong bearish divergence with the MACD. This is a very, very strong divergence and a bearish cross is also present on the MACD. Similar signals were present mid-2023, which led to a ~10% correction. The difference this time around is based on the change of the FEDs policies and the USA elections. Bearish volume is also higher and the stock market is all-around over-bought. A correction tends to balance things out, and once the correction is over, we resume our trajectory of sustained long-term growth. Life Cycles There is a tendency to belief that the world, the financial markets and anything we can think of is always on the brink of collapse, this due to the news and also past experiences. If we go by real data, facts and available global statistics, all the doom scenarios that have been proposed in the past 100 years or so never materialized. There has been some scenarios saying that we would run out of oil, energy, etc.; Other scenarios would say that the earth would freeze by 1980. Others instead said the earth would drown due to high heat by the year 2000. Others instead insist that if the world population reached 5billion, we would all be dead for one reason or the other. Needless to say, we are now at almost 8billion and growing. The reason why the world never ends is because we are in the positive, ascending, life growing cycle. We are just at the beginning of a massive technological cycle. Each time there is a problem, a new solution is developed. "The Financial system is doomed!" Bitcoin shows up. Whenever a problem becomes apparent, just know that is not the end of the world, the world will continue to do just fine and we humans will continue to live and evolve. There is no way out of life, so get used to it... We are only getting started... After the bear-market/correction, we are definitely set for maximum growth. The stock market will not stop existing. The banks will adapt and evolve. Many outdated systems will be weeded out, but this is not the end of the world. Life is good. Pain encourages growth. If you prepare, you can even avoid the pain and profit from this drop. Namaste.Shortby AlanSantanaPublished 6638
The Graveyard in the SkyI won't be analyzing any paterns.I will let you enjoy the beautiful shooting star near the all time highs.Shortby MonstralianUpdated 2219
Breakdown of our SHORT SPX TRADEExpected move yesterday close was 5380 Morning Call we said 5380 will Resistance Traget was 5312 I we teach SPX reset everyday, VWAP great tool for direction . Happy everyone in the room made money!! Stay Frosty!06:13by Beyond_ChartsPublished 0
Remember March 2020? $spx $spyRemember when we had the market crash of days with more than 4% decline daily? Well we are about to have a short taste of what was like, be prepared the market will moon very quicky... the factors could be many but the direction is clear. the markets are overly extended and have already touched the yearly h5 resistance. the political factors together could lead to this big decline combined with the fed policy. Tomorrow is the day and after the initial dumb and delight that will have from the FED I expect a taste of the March 2020 days. Get ready and see you at the end of august! more information on my socials ,see you thereShortby Time_OracleUpdated 665
SPX 666The S&P has proven itself a safe haven over the years and will likely continue doing so. There are a ton of reasons why the markets should collapse, nonetheless here we are rallying into the sunset. Taking a step back on the logarithmic scale we can see the pattern clearly. We are in the midst of a 3rd wave up with plenty of room to run... but where to? Near term and long term targets below. Using the Fibonacci extension tool we can overlay a road map to the next destinations. No surprise there is a near perfect match. The Near Term Top The 2.618 level above at 4,500 is an area to pay attention to and is the current near term target. My strategy continues to be 'buy the dip' all the way up to these macro levels using the 1 hour chart with an RSI set to 10. However, 4,500 on the S&P does not look like the end of this cycle. The Long Term Top My long term call for the top is around 6,660. Not only is it sandwiched in between the last fib extensions. It is a historically significant pivot point. No, I'm not a conspiracy guy but I do think it's hilariously entertaining that the major pivot points all happen near 666 levels. Looks to me as if the market is flying towards 6,660 like a bat out of hell. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Live trades with entries and exits will be updated on the post linked below titled "S&P 5,000,000" Long: MES futures + a basket of other equitiesLongby trade-GodUpdated 335
Time Is Melting UpA decisive moment draws near as a familiar, but forgotten trend incredulously appears. Outlined in "S&squeezed" linked below, caution was appropriate until new highs were confirmed. Enough time has passed. The carcasses of blown accounts can serve as a launch pad to revisit the fib that was lost at 4500. This is now underway. Soon to find out which way things tumble Longby trade-GodUpdated 226
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-02-2024After selling off yesterday, S&P 500 closed at bottom third which could be bearish sign. Level to watch : 5400 --- 5398 Report to watch: US Factory Orders 10am EST by traderdan59Published 0
S&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative NewsS&P 500 Index Price Falls Amid Negative News Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory: → The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production. → The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months. As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies: → Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%). → Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%). The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets. Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): → Having twice acted as support, the 5585 level has become resistance (as indicated by the arrows). A similar transformation may occur with the psychological level of 5400. → The lower highs in July provide grounds to define the contours of a downward channel, which will gain more relevance if the bears manage to push the price through the lower blue boundary – intensifying recession talks. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. by FXOpenPublished 118
Futures Slide as AMZN & Intel Disappoint; Key Jobs Data Awaited Futures Slide as Amazon and Intel Forecasts Disappoint; Jobs Data Awaited U.S. index futures fell sharply on Friday following downbeat forecasts from Amazon and Intel. Investors are now awaiting a crucial jobs report for further insights into the labor market amid ongoing concerns over an economic slowdown. S&P 500 Analysis: Downside !!! The S&P 500 dropped sharply as noted yesterday and continues to trend bearish. Bullish Scenario: For a shift to a bullish trend, the price needs to stabilize above 5,409, potentially reaching 5,438 and 5,460. Bearish Scenario: If trading continues below 5,409, the price is expected to drop to 5,372 and 5,345. Key Levels: - Pivot Line: 5,409 - Resistance Levels: 5,438, 5,460, 5,491 - Support Levels: 5,372, 5,346, 5,320 Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the resistance at 5,438 and the support at 5,320. Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Unemployment Rate reports are expected to significantly impact the market. Previous idea: Shortby SroshMayiPublished 4
RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD moment for US Indices.Hi Guys, The US Indices are facing some real selling pressure currently and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in particular are in critical must hold price areas if they are to keep their uptrends on daily timeframe intact. There is a bearish harmonic Gartley pattern that is developing on the SP500 with perfect fib ratios. If price holds the current level and we see a rally then the pattern's entry point would coincide with a strong resistance zone/ supply area , where sell setups should arise. 4HR overbought RSI could also be added as confluence should price rally to that point. Lower time frame entry using shooting star or engulfing candle or double top, inv head shoulders pattern or CHOCH or trendline break etc.. would allow for tight stop loss placement and result in a nice risk to reward trade with target being the current support zone. If we break and close on the 4hour or Daily time frame then we would have confirmation of trend change/ reversal point / break of structure and can start looking at lower points for discount buy zones and start selling into any bulllish rallies from this point. I personally wouldn't mind seeing a reversal here and a return to some lower prices but we will see how things play out here. Markets are very volatile at the moment so there are plenty of opportunities but ensure that you have risk management under control before entering into any trades. Safe trading all.by elyask120Updated 2
S&P 500 More Downside RiskA few factors to consider a. Supply / Demand - the Supply Zone is at the prior swing high (ATH) of 5679. The Demand zone is at 5220-5270. b. Support level - support comes in 5320. Tested by 8 candles, broken by 1. c. Equal Measured Move - if we consider an equal move as the last bearish retracement in March/April , we arrive also at 5320. d. Fibonacci - this area of interest also coincides with Fib 50-618 levels. e. RSI - is in the selling half , sitting at 41. Price has a deal of room to move towards the demand zone. f. Volume Spread Analysis - yesterday had an extraordinary volume with a large spread. The buyers got involved , but the sellers turned up bigtime. Today we have an average volume as price shuttles lower, some 40 points given up on the lower volume. 5400 has been a line in the sand. However, with the dominance of selling seen in the last 12 days , combined with the above factors , a bias exists for a trade to the short side. Shortby UmlingoPublished 0
$SPX Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndSo, in SPX, one of the biggest levels to have on your chart is the 50-day moving average. We have definitely been chopping around that level since last Thursday, and quite violently this week. The 50-day is directly above where we closed, and then the 35 EMA is right above that as well. At the very top of the implied move, we have the 30-minute 200 moving average coming down from above the trading range, and the momentum on that is down. We clearly saw a rejection there today, so be careful if we get near the top of the trading range. The average is also at the top of the trading range, and they look like they’re about to cross down. That is a bearish cross, to see the 30-minute get underneath the one-hour like that. Under us, we have support at 5399. We bounced there three times: last Thursday, last Friday, and then this week on Tuesday. Underneath that, we have another gap. That is the rest of the gap left over from FOMC in June. When we dipped into that level last week on Thursday, we did see some buying there, and we filled that gap about halfway. Good luck tomorrow, guys!by SPYder_QQQueen_TradingPublished 4
US500, NASDAQ at KEY level The price is currently at a key level, testing both support and the trendline. 1. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown): - If the price breaks below the support level, it may indicate the beginning of an ABC correction in the Elliott Wave pattern. - Action: Open a SHORT position with a smaller lot size. - If the price then retests the broken support (now acting as resistance), you should open another SHORT position with a larger lot size. - Target Levels: The price could initially drop to 5300 and potentially further to 4930. 2. Bullish Scenario (Support Holds): - If the support holds and you observe bullish price action (e.g., long needles at the bottom of the candles), open a LONG position. - Action: If the price forms a higher high and a higher low, or breaks above the resistance at 5560 and retests it, you can add to your LONG position. Fundamental: Recently, a technology crisis impacted Microsoft and several other companies' stocks. However, it appears that they have managed the situation effectively, suggesting a potential price increase. Despite this, the Volatility Index (VIX) keeps increasing, indicating persistent fear among investors. As a result, there is an equal 50/50 chance of prices moving either up or down.by tselmegFOREXUpdated 3
Fed Rate Rally could fail on StocksSo Stock market rallied to the anticipated September rate cut after an initial sell off earlier last week. I am seeing this rally as fake rally or retrace of the earlier sell off. I am seeing a gap window that needs to close as well as unsupported money flow for the rally. I think the rally will likely fail after the gap down window closes. see it on the chart. I am only sharing my trade notes and this should not be considered as financial or investment advice or recommendation. please do your own analysis and if you care about the trading community then share your trade idea. Best of trading Shortby RICHINVESTORUpdated 228
Weekly Update: At the very least...ITS TIME TO RAISE CASH !!!!Since I last updated you on the overall markets, price has retreated lower. (Click Here for the last Market Update) The Nasdaq futures contract (NQ) has declined a total of 10.76% whereas the SP500 futures contract (ES) has only declined 5.05% from their respective all-time highs earlier in July. Does the Divergence between the weakness of the NQ, and relative strength of the ES, tell us anything? As I take in volumes of information to access the current pattern I find myself overwhelmed with the musings of more experienced market participants. A reasonable explanation would be the Nasdaq outperformed on the way up and is now underperforming on the way down. A sign possibly it got ahead of itself? Sure. However, in my experience, the answer is more nuanced to advancing and declining markets than simply the Nasdaq outperformed earlier and is now underperforming. I find Bob Farrell’s “Market Rules to Remember” always a good list to consult in the most interesting of market times. In his top 10 list of market rules, I find the market somewhere between rule #2 and rule#4 rather germane to the current price action. Rule #2 states : “Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.” Whereas Rule #4 states : “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.” Have we achieved the one directional excess that will lead to excesses in the opposite direction yet? Does this rapidly rising market have further to go? These are questions that are impossible to answer right now as the current price action in the NQ and ES tends to favor both rules. To further explain with respect to Rule#2…as long as we remain above the April lows in both the NQ and the ES, we retain the ability to continue to subdivide higher . Right now, those April lows seem like worlds away from the current consciousness of traders. However, from an Elliottitions’ perspective, the upside pattern is not damaged in the least, as long as we remain above those April lows. But to say the advancing price action has not been damaged in the least is somewhat an oversimplification of the technical structure of the recent price action as notated in RN Elliott’s original theories. Elliott Wave Theory simply put states that a trend will persist in 5 distinct waves, and counter trend price action will retrace the trend but only in 3 distinct waves. This forms the basis of trends, or (Motive Waves) and counter trends, or (Corrective Waves). The exception to this primary tenant of EWT is, wait for it …… (A diagonal Pattern) . Anyone can use the Google Machine for a definition of what a diagonal is within the construct of Elliott Wave Theory. However, I will add that the sentiment of market participants usually is that of tepid confidence. Traders not entirely sure of their actions....FOMO. Nonetheless, using this basic premise, this is how I interpret the current market price action. Disclaimer: I am not a fortune teller. I do not levitate off the ground, nor do I smoke a pipe like a wizard. Elliott Wave Theory is a construct to provide simply a higher probability forecast of future price action...NOT A GUARANTEE. Many times, with more price action and the benefit of hindsight, patterns can be interpreted as something other than what was originally perceived. The current price action in the NQ can persist to new all-time highs right now. However, to do so, would ONLY be accomplished as an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 of larger V of even larger wave (III). This sort of price action, if it subdivides to it’s ultimate conclusion, would eventually result in a market crash of sorts. Ending Diagonal patterns ideally return to their point of origination in relatively short order. The origination point of this potential pattern is the April lows. That would be considered a pretty hefty decline if that were to play out and certainly scare those who remain permanently bullish by virtue of a lack of imagination. The ES, although not nearly as precarious as the NQ pattern is, would undoubtedly follow suit to a large extent. Therefore, I will conclude by humbly offering some unsolicited advice. The professionals, the market media and your day trader buddy…all will chime in when it’s time to buy. Its crickets…when it’s time to sell. You, nor I, have ever turned on CNBC to hear…”Folks it’s time to sell stocks”. In my last update on the markets, I ended with this statement... these decisions are only yours alone to make. I will not tell you to sell now. However, I’ll tell you this. It is time to raise some cash. Could the market make new highs? Sure. But have you honestly done a risk/reward scenario for these potential incremental new highs? Take that suggestion for what it may be worth. Best to all, Chris by maikischPublished 19
Long trade Observed Price Action Wed 31st July 24 NY Session - 3:00 PM Buyside 1-minute TF entry Entry: 5532.1 Profit Level: 5614.2 (1.48%) Stop Level: 5513.8 (0.33%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.49Longby davidjulien369Updated 0