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The Bitcoin Dilemma.The Bitcoin Dilemma. Unlimited Upside Potential Since Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculative growth capital flows, much like the S&P 500, it has the potential, over very long periods of time, for continual price increases. $100K, MIL:1M , $10M, even higher... Unlimited Downside Risk Unlike an index of stocks, which can rotate out underperforming companies, Bitcoin as a standalone asset cannot. S&P 500 in comprised of 11 sectors, where an underperforming sector can pick up the slack, as capitals rotate out of the leaders. Bitcoin cannot. If faith in Bitcoin wanes or it is outcompeted by newer technologies or regulatory changes, there is no mechanism to replace it or adapt its structure. This makes it susceptible to large drops in value if the market turns negative, with theoretically no bottom in sight. #bitcoin #spx #capitalflows With all that said, I am a chart trader. I will follow the trends, using proper risk and money management, no matter how compelling (or not) a narrative or story line is. Hope you enjoyed my thoughts on this delicate subject for some! Remember, there is always something we do not know, and accepting that is the 1st step to growing and learning.
SP:SPX
by Badcharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPX 6086 - VIX and Put/Call Ratio : the market combines it all.How to read the Chart? SPX in main picture an below - with own scales- you find the Put/Call Ratio and and bottom the VIX. Put/call Ratio tells us, how much euphoric is in the market. Values below 0.65 , market is bullish. VIX tells us, how much volatilty is in the market. Values below 13 tells us normally, that market is prepared for larger or bigger movements. Values also important, for calculate price of warrants etc. Low VIX cheaper prices for warrants. So: in the chart now you can see several time stamps with green marks on price SPX, VIX and P/C Ratio. The meaning of this all: high coincidence with low values in VIX and P/C Ratio will high indicator for downward moves. The deeper values on VIX and P/C Ratio, the stronger the downward move. Dan, 11th dec 2024
CBOE:SPXShort
by Flyerdan
4.23 Breakouts in Bubbles. In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move. Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be. Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them. Let's first look at the evidence for these fibs having been useful before for the SPX rally. We'll look and see if they have reactions that would seem "Beyond chance" and if they do, then it's reasonable to think the 4.23 decision will be important too, right? And if not, then no. But obviously we'd not have a post if not. Quite useful. Not perfect, certainly very useful. Being aware of big decisions at or around these levels helped a lot. The 4.23 reaction here was very shallow. 4.23's are prone to much deeper corrections and this would be a big risk if we're inside of a false breakout of the 4.23. But if we're actually breaking it, something wild usually happens above the 4.23. Here's the fibs from the Black Monday move. The breakout above it would go on to be known as the dotcom and housing bubbles and the GFC crash would end on the 4.23 retest. Interesting, right? That was around 1996 and that happened to be the same time Nasdaq broke the 4.23. This happened after the Nasdaq break. A headliner stock of the Nasdaq bubble was CSCO. That had a couple big reactions to fibs on the way up and broke the 4.23. And this happened. Remember that time GME went up 100% in a day? That was on the 4.23 break. Then it hyper boomed and mean reverted. As with the other examples. This is a fun one. It's off topic on the bull stuff but we'll be quick. Remember that time some oil contracts negative? 4.23 breaks usually look something like this. The red trend feeling extremely strong at the time but being tame relative to the blue trend. This part of the move will have some crash pullbacks in it but feature exceptional bullish engulfing candles. All of that stuff almost invariably ends up in a bust, but it's a lot of fun at the time.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
1
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
SPX500 forming a Double Top pattern, will it keep going up?Technical Analysis: ================ SPX500 has formed a noticeable double top technical pattern. If it respects the double top pattern the price should touch around 5700. But if it keeps climbing the 6000 may become another support level. Fundamental Analysis: =================== 1) Israel war seems to be calming, which should reduce the uncertainty and boost the stock market 2) Russia Ukraine war is intensifying as a result of latest attacks. This war has potential to undermine all other good news and could go with the double top (technical analysis) 3) Santa Claus Rally can boost the stock market in coming weeks followed by correction in Jan 2025 ===== Happy Thanks Giving to all the traders ====
OANDA:SPX500USD
by spranav
SPX500/ Trades Between (ATH) ZoneS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its all-time high (ATH) which is 6,099. It is currently trading within the ATH zone, which is located between 6,099 and 6,058, and continues to move toward 6,058. For the bullish trend to be confirmed, the price must break the previous high resistance at 6,099 with a confirmed close of a 1H or 4H candle. This would pave the way for the price to reach a new all-time high (ATH) at 6,143. The price is currently trading toward 6,058. If it breaks this level with a confirmed 4-hour candle close, the bearish trend will be activated, targeting the 6,022 level. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6099, 6143, 6185 Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming. Chance of forming: <50%
SP:SPX
by StonkMarketParty
S&P 500 Index→Simple Analysis SP:SPX The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024: If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025). What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support. As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
SP:SPX
by MarketAnalyzar
S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
S&P 500 Analysis: Bearish Momentum Ahead of CPI ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea from 6058 and still has bearish momentum. Now, as long as trades below 6058 touch 6022, stability under 6022 supports dropping toward 5971, especially if the CPI released is more than expected, which is 2.7%. A 4-hour candle should close above 6058 to have a bullish trend until 6099, in the case of realizing CPI results in less than 2.7%. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: Downward while below 6058
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500: Technical Insights and Trend ForecastS&P 500 Technical Analysis The price has dropped from its previous significant high and has already broken the key level at 6058. It is currently attempting to reclaim this level. As long as trades below 6058 will touch 6022. Bullish Scenario, A 4-hour candle close above 6058 will signal a potential reversal, targeting higher resistance levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6058 Resistance Levels: 6073, 6099, 6145 Support Levels: 6022, 5971, 5932 Trend Outlook: The trend remains downward while the price is below 6058. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi