Discussions

US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar forum

2 hours ago

Break below the trendline is abit of a concern, but could be make or break with the elections. Trump victory might be a +ve whereas a Kamala victory might be a -ve. (Just sharing my opinion, not financial advice)

2 hours ago

Another account blown for perma bear Fibonaccivix….

2 hours ago

No matter who wins, the market has reliably pumped after elections in the past. From what I’ve read, the market clearly wants Trump to win because it would be easier to navigate, drawing from past patterns to decide what to buy and sell. If Harris were to win, we should expect more volatility, as the market would need time to adjust and determine its response. I would definitely consider shorting renewable energy stocks and Disney, which is just price-gouging American families and promoting wokeism that only a few people endorse—especially given the inflation that Biden’s administration has created.

2 hours ago

📊 Unemployment Claims Report Analysis 📊

Forecast: 221k

Previous: 216k

Expectation: Likely Higher than Forecast

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Article

The upcoming Unemployment Claims report is expected to come in higher than the forecast of 221k, indicating potential challenges in the labor market. Several key economic indicators, including a significant drop in Non-Farm Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings, suggest reduced hiring activity and declining labor demand.

Consumer confidence and retail sales data show signs of resilience, reflecting strong spending and sentiment. However, these positive aspects may not be enough to offset labor market weaknesses. The ADP Non-Farm Employment report showed private sector growth, yet its impact appears limited given uneven hiring across sectors and ongoing economic uncertainties.

If Unemployment Claims indeed exceed the forecast, it could signal that more people are seeking benefits as job opportunities tighten. This shift in the labor market may put pressure on economic growth as consumer spending, a key driver, could slow down if people begin cutting back amid fewer employment opportunities.

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Economic Impact

Pressure: Downward Pressure on Economic Growth

The higher-than-expected Unemployment Claims suggest a cooling labor market, which could lead to reduced consumer spending as unemployed individuals face fewer job prospects. A slowdown in spending can weigh on overall economic momentum and reduce growth prospects. 💼🔻

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Gold Market Impact

Pressure: Upward Pressure on Gold Prices

If claims come in above forecast, gold may see an increase in demand 📈. High unemployment numbers often trigger safe-haven demand for gold, as investors seek stability amid economic concerns. During such times, gold typically performs well, especially if expectations rise for potential future policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve. 🌟✨