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Brent Crude: Will De-escalation Lower Prices Even Further?Brent crude oil prices remain bearish below the October 29 high of $72.15 per barrel, with traders likely targeting the recent low around $70.49. A break below this level could drive prices further down to the next support at $69.40. Conversely, a push above $72.15 could lift prices higher, potentially closing the gap from Sunday. This gap emerged after news that Israel’s attack on Iran avoided energy production facilities, and Iran’s response was restrained. As a result, the market removed some of the risk premium that had been pricing in a wider regional conflict. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BRENTShort
by ThinkMarkets
Oil Prices Rise AgainOil prices have risen around 1 dollar in the Asian session and continued a rise of almost 2 dollars per barrel at the European opening, driven by reports of possible conflicts in the Middle East and the expectation of adjustments in crude oil production. The situation has generated uncertainty among investors, who are seeking protection in the face of instability in the energy market. We continue to see the same upward trend movement as yesterday, only in this case, looking at the one-hour candlesticks, it is clear that the effect of yesterday's inventory news had a really strong effect on crude oil. Currently BRENT (Ticker AT: BRENT) and WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) are trading at $74.42 and $70.75 respectively. It would not be unusual to see a rally towards $75.85 and $72.20 as target prices respectively as this is the area of strong bearish pressure if we look at the delta indicator. Currently RSI is highly oversold at 74.44% so this bullish burst might not be overextended, and generate a price suppression to the POC zone at $74 which is the POC zone for BRENT and $69.70 for WTI respectively. Tensions in the Middle East Recent reports indicate that Iran may be planning an attack against Israel from Iraq, using drones and ballistic missiles. According to Israeli intelligence, this move could occur before the U.S. presidential election on November 5. These types of tensions tend to raise oil prices, as any escalation in the region could impact global energy supply. Influence of OPEC+ and global production Prices have also been supported by the possibility that OPEC+ may decide to postpone the December production increase, given weak demand conditions and rising global supply. Sources close to the organization indicated that this decision could be made next week to stabilize the market in a context of volatility. Additional factors: U.S. elections and China's economy The approaching U.S. presidential election adds another level of uncertainty, as the candidates have different positions towards Iran and Russia, which could affect the relationship with oil producers. Meanwhile, in China, growth in manufacturing activity during October, driven by economic stimulus, suggests a potential increase in oil demand. This data reflects a recovery in the Chinese economy after several months of contraction in the sector, which could influence the global energy market. Inventories and production in the United States In the United States, gasoline inventories reached their lowest level in two years due to a growing demand and a drop in crude oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, the country reached a production record of 13.4 million barrels per day in August, which may contribute to supply stability in the short term. In conclusion, the combination of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production policies and demand factors in the United States and China are driving oil prices higher. This trend is likely to continue depending on the evolution of these factors in the coming days. Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
U.S. Demand and Uncertainty Drive Oil VolatilityThe oil market continues to show strong oscillations, influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuations in global demand. Recently, oil prices rose on the back of a surprise drop in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, suggesting stronger-than-expected demand for the fuel. In early Asian trading, Brent (Ticker AT: BRENT) was up 0.65% at USD 73.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) was up 0.63% at USD 69.04 per barrel. These increases reflect the positive impact of US demand and reduced crude imports, extending a momentum that drove both contracts up by more than 2% on Wednesday. At the start of the European session, the market did not correct this rise, but some downward pressure is perceptible. Technical indicators show a strong trading zone around USD 72.30 for Brent and USD 68.55 for WTI, with the RSI balanced at 50%, suggesting that the market could consolidate in this zone as support before a possible rise towards the end of the week. Geopolitical and Oversupply Effect Since Iran's attack on Israel on October 1, crude oil prices have experienced remarkable volatility. In October, Brent went as high as almost 10% in just four days, reaching USD 80 before retreating following an Israeli bombing in Iran on October 26. This led to a significant drop in prices on Monday 28, where Brent fell by more than 4% to USD 71.42, while WTI lost more than 5% to USD 67.38. This situation takes place in a context of oversupply, where gasoline inventories in the US (Ticker AT: GASOLZ2024) have fallen to two-year lows. Against a backdrop of low global demand, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have revised their demand forecasts for this year, mainly due to the economic slowdown in China. Despite the stimulus in the Chinese economy, demand remains weak, affecting crude oil consumption projections. Short and Medium-Term Outlook The market is also watching the possibility of OPEC+ postponing a 180,000 barrels per day production increase planned for December in order to stabilize prices. In parallel, the upcoming U.S. presidential election and expectations of further stimulus in China could influence oil demand in the short term, the projection of its movement a price range for oil between USD 70 and USD 85 in the medium term. This scenario reflects the complexities of the current market, where supply, demand and geopolitical events will continue to drive fluctuations in crude oil prices. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
A Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil ChartA Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil Chart As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude oil prices formed a gap at the start of this week: while Friday’s session closed at 75.60, Monday’s opening price dropped below 72.60. According to Reuters, this development is tied to the fact that Israel’s recent missile strike on Iran did not impact oil or nuclear facilities, reducing the immediate risk of escalation. Will Brent Crude Oil Prices Continue Falling? In terms of technical analysis for XBR/USD today: → The price is within a descending channel (shown in red) that has been active since early summer. A bullish breakout attempt on 7 October was unsuccessful (marked by a red arrow), and Brent crude has since dropped over 10%. Price consolidation between 17-22 October near the median of this red channel confirms its current relevance. → Bulls had an opportunity to show strength with a bounce (marked by a blue arrow) from Support Line 1, which forms part of an upward structure represented by blue lines. However, today’s bearish gap erased these gains. This allows traders to consider two scenarios: → Bearish Scenario: After breaking below Support, Brent could continue along the red descending channel. If the channel’s median line holds as resistance, this bearish outlook may be confirmed. → Bullish Scenario: Today’s bearish breach of the 18 October low could prove false, leading to a potential recovery back toward the structure of three blue lines. Ultimately, which scenario plays out will largely depend on volatile news related to geopolitical tensions, the U.S. presidential election, and economic data from major economies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Oil Prices Slump as Israel-Iran Tensions Drop: Bears Eye $71Israel's targeted strike, which avoided Iran's energy facilities, is driving crude oil prices sharply lower. After closing Friday at $75 per barrel, prices opened today at $72.61 and quickly dropped to a low of $71. This has created a notable gap between today’s high and Friday’s close, which could be filled if prices rebound temporarily before resuming a potential downward trend.The recent price action has also breached a significant triangle pattern, suggesting a strong downside move. The trend will remain bearish below $74.32, with sellers targeting $71 and potentially $69.89 per barrel. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BRENTShort
by ThinkMarkets
BULLISH IDEA ON UK OILMarket structure has shifted to an uptrend. The supply zone at $75.00 was invalidated shifting market sentiment from a downtrend to an uptrend making it a mitigation zone a newly formed Bullish breaker block 1h, Price broke and closed above $75.In the lower timeframe there's a point of interest demand at 75.036 which is close to the 1bullish breaker block. Anticipating a retracement and continuation of buys from 75.036 to 77.327 as my profit target
FX:UKOILLong
by Nigel-K-W
Can oil prices hit 100 usd/bbl in 2025?🔸Based on technicals it's entirely possible. Looking at the daily price chart of Brent Oil we can spot a sequence of lower lows having said that prices are also compressing in a falling wedge price structure which could indicate a swift reversal off the lows near 65 USD/bbl. 🔸Potential price targets for Brent at 100/110 USD bbl if the tensions escalate further in 2025, which is almost guaranteed at this stage. 🔸The possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict has escalated tensions in the Middle East, which is putting upward pressure on oil prices. Although Israel has not yet officially declared war on Iran, there is ongoing speculation about Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in response to missile attacks and Iran's support for militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Such actions could significantly disrupt the global oil market. 🔸If Israel were to target major Iranian oil facilities, such as Kharg Island, which handles the majority of Iran's oil exports, global oil prices could spike dramatically. Analysts suggest prices could exceed $100 per barrel and might even reach as high as $200 if the conflict spreads to other regional oil producers or if key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted. This scenario would impact not only fuel prices but also inflation globally, reviving economic fears similar to those seen during the 1970s oil crisis​ 🔸At the moment, oil prices have already seen increases due to the broader conflict, but the market has remained relatively stable thanks to diversified supplies from the U.S. and other non-Middle Eastern producers​ ​ 🔸However, if the situation deteriorates further, particularly with attacks on critical energy infrastructure, more significant price hikes are likely. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
TVC:UKOILLong
by ProjectSyndicate
15
Oil and Lithium: Horizon in the Energy TransformationThe global energy market is undergoing dramatic changes, with oil and lithium playing a crucial role. As oil prices face a significant weekly drop, the extraction of lithium in oil fields, such as the Smackover Formation in the United States, offers a revolutionary opportunity for the energy industry. These developments reflect the current dilemma: the same reservoir that fueled combustion engines could now drive the transition to electric mobility. Oil prices rose slightly on Friday in Asian trading, boosted by a drop in U.S. inventories. However, Brent and WTI futures are heading for a weekly loss of around 6%, the steepest since September, due to growing concerns about global demand. China's GDP data showed moderate growth, but the government's recent stimulus measures failed to generate the expected momentum, affecting market expectations. The strength of the U.S. dollar, coupled with concerns about higher U.S. interest rates, has put pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following Israel's response to an attack by Iran, have added a risk premium to oil prices. Traders fear that these conflicts could disrupt Iranian oil supplies, increasing volatility in an already volatile market. At the same time, lithium extraction in oil fields is emerging as a promising solution. In the United States, the Smackover Formation has been the epicenter of research that seeks to take advantage of oil field brines, which contain lithium in large quantities. Companies such as ExxonMobil and Standard Lithium, in alliance with Equinor, are leading projects that could transform lithium production through advanced technologies such as direct lithium extraction (DLE), which would reduce the need for large evaporation ponds and increase commercial viability. On the technical side, Brent crude oil (Ticker AT: BRENT) has been moving in a range between $95.11 and $71.47, its average trading range coinciding with the Point of Control (POC) around $82.00. At the moment the delta pressure indicators indicate a bearish pressure that coincides with an RSI at 45.69%. We have to watch the macroeconomic backdrop to see if the price of crude oil tries to test support again and returns towards the POC area or pierces in the direction of $68.46. Although oil demand seems to be slowing down, the lithium boom and its importance for electric mobility shows an energy horizon where both resources could coexist, facilitating both traditional and future energy. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by ActivTrades