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Oil Outlook: Rising Tensions versus Saudi Price CutsConflicting Factors Cause Volatile Start to the Year The global oil market faces a turbulent start to 2024, navigating a complex interplay of factors that have sent prices on a rollercoaster ride. Saudi Arabia's unexpected price cuts, causing a nearly 4% drop in Brent crude on January 8th, hinted at the world's largest oil exporter's commitment to maintaining market share. Just days later, Houthi threats, coupled with US and UK military strikes in Yemen, briefly pushed oil prices above $80 a barrel on January 12th. The redirection of oil tankers from the Red Sea intensified uncertainty, challenging earlier assumptions about market stability. Analysts are divided on the medium-term trajectory of oil prices. While some focus on softening global demand and robust US supply growth, attributing the decline since September, others underscore the geopolitical landscape's role in swiftly altering market dynamics. The recent surge, driven by Houthi threats, highlights the delicate balance between global forces and market sentiment. Technical Backdrop: Wedge Starts to Form In the midst of conflicting market forces, technical analysis emerges as a crucial tool to contextualise January's volatility. The daily candle chart for Brent crude reveals a persistent downtrend, with prices remaining over 18% below their September highs. Anchored volume-weighted average prices (VWAPs) from the autumn swing highs act as dynamic resistance points as the trend continues downward. However, having retested key support in December, we have seen prices start to carve out a small series of higher swing lows – ‘funnelling’ the market into a ‘wedge’ pattern. We can use this consolidation pattern as a canary in the coal mine – a decisive break above the wedge could set the stage for change in trend while a break below could finally trigger long-held support to be breached. Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by Capitalcom
1
UKOil Bullish**Yearly Chart** UKOil (Brent) last year's candle closed in a big range between 70 and 95 levels. While the intermediate trend suggests continuing the long-directional bias. **Monthly Chart** After retracing from an all-time high at around 125 level in 2022. The price retraced back to balance the move at 50% of the swing high and then remains in a range from March 2023. As far as the price does not break the swing low at around 70 (key level), I am expecting the bullish momentum to continue this year. **Weekly Chart** Last week candle closed as a doji candle which is an indication of indecision in the market. I would like to see the price retrace slightly lower, provides a reversal, and then move higher in the coming weeks. **Daily Chart** I would like to see the price tape into the demand zone and provide a confirmation to go higher.
TVC:UKOILLong
by PropSignals
Brent - W1\D1Brent W1 - The price may form a potential 3-wave structure, which, if wave 1 is broken, will mean continued upward movement to the values of 95.90 D1 - You can observe the formation of a triangular structure with a breakout of the upper trend line. Globally, the levels that the price can reach are 92.04 What can you expect? You can consider entering from the current levels of ~79.21 or wait for the price to fix behind the trend line and then consider entering. Cancel if the price breaks the minimum - 75.34, if you are considering the entry from W1 and the formation of a 3-wave structure, the stop can be set at the minimum of the 1st wave at 72.00 Long Target 81.41 - 82.78 - 85.51 - 87.98 - 92.04
TVC:UKOILLong
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Diagonal leading?? Three corrective waves and then a fallDear FRIEND, I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily). I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished. Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, (Mr. Nobody)
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by mehdi47abbasi79
Brent, dailyTA normally considers a trend to be active until there’s evidence that it has ended, so further losses seem to be possible for oil in the medium term. However, the price recently made a higher low and doesn’t show any sign of buying or selling saturation. The main dynamic resistance in the short term which might cap gains is the 50 SMA around $80, also a psychological area. A logical first target to the downside in the medium term would be around $72.50. Movement at the end of the week is likely to depend on the dollar’s reaction to the job report.
TVC:UKOIL
by Exness_Official
Crude oil - $200 per barrelWe've all seen how oil reacted to the beginning of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I am sure that this conflict will not settle down quickly and will only increase. The conflict will involve other players in the region - Emen is proof of this fact. How will oil react to this? The suspension of supplies and other problems with oil supplies will provoke demand for oil and the price will go higher and in the next few years will renew historical highs up to $200 per barrel. I think this was calculated by the coalition of aggressor countries before the war started. about TA We see a strong horizontal level where there is a lot of liquidity (concentration of stop losses) which will be collected up to the level of the largest horizontal volumes from below. And only after that, we will see a global reversal, which is probably the end of the year - December On the chart, I have shown levels from which I will try to take longs. I hope there will be PEACE in the world. Our world looks very humongous in terms of cosmic civilization sending tons of bombs to kill each other. Best regards EXCAVO
FX:UKOILSPOT
by EXCAVO
5