1.2&1.2 Or Expanded Diagonal??Greetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
SPOTBRENT trade ideas
Brent oil prices found some support During early Friday trading, Brent oil prices found some support as investors continued to weigh the likelihood of additional production cuts from OPEC+ producers. The previous two sessions were marked by significant oscillations in the price of the barrel. There was an overall fall of almost 2%, as traders reacted to news of the postponement of a meeting of high-level representatives from OPEC+ member states, in which the main point on the agenda was agreeing on new production cuts. Nevertheless, the consensus amongst market participants remains tilted towards the high likelihood of additional output reductions, which could be announced at the end of the month. However, any upside for oil prices stays capped by the gloomy outlook for the Chinese economy and the strength of US oil inventories.
Ricardo Evangelista – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades
Brent (ICE) (F4) Intraday May rise 1.45 %Pivot: 80.80
Our preference:
long positions above 80.80 with targets at 82.00 & 82.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
below 80.80 look for further downside with 80.20 & 79.50 as targets.
Comment:
the RSI calls for a bounce.
The oil market is closely watching the developments within OPEC+ as the group prepares for a virtual meeting on November 30 to discuss potential production cuts. This comes in the wake of a significant increase in US crude inventories and amid expectations of a Chinese stimulus that could impact demand.
WTI crude oil was trading at $76.50 on Friday, as OPEC+ confirmed it would hold a virtual meeting next Wednesday to deliberate on production strategies. The group, including key player Saudi Arabia, is contemplating maintaining its current output cut of 1 million barrels per day into the next year. This decision is influenced by recent declines in oil prices, and there are discussions about the possibility of further reductions by OPEC+ members.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected surge in US crude inventories, with an increase of 8.7 million barrels for the week ending November 17. This figure starkly contrasts with market expectations, which had predicted a much smaller rise of just 0.9 million barrels.
The anticipation of a Chinese economic stimulus targeting real estate firms, such as Country Garden Holdings, has been factored into market sentiments. Given China's significant role as a consumer in the oil market, such measures could help counteract the downward pressure on WTI prices.
Additionally, market participants are awaiting the upcoming release of US S&P Global PMI data. Forecasts indicate slight contractions in both Manufacturing and Services indices, which could further influence global oil demand and pricing dynamics.
The outcome of OPEC+'s meeting and the subsequent decisions on production levels will be critical for the direction of oil prices as the market heads into the final month of 2023.
BCOUSD#Brent crude oil - H1
📣 Based on the chart structure in the 1-hour timeframe, if the resistance level around 83.85 is broken, one can consider buying with a target of 86.30.
⛔ Stop loss: 82.30
On the other hand, with the break of the 82.30 level, there is a potential for a price decline towards the 80.00 range.
⛔ Stop loss: 83.85
It's essential to perform your own analysis and consider other factors before making any trading decisions.
Possible idea OILGreetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week.
I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further.
I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you.
I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market.
However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time.
If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes.
It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is.
No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get.
We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities.
Let's mention a few opinions and ideas!
Based on mathematics.
I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future.
Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success.
Best regards,
Mr. Nobody
Keep trying and never give up.
Good luck!
Crude Oil Correction - Bearish Scenario (4H)Brent Crude Oil Forecast 🛢️ TVC:UKOIL
Recent sessions saw a surge in Brent crude futures, hitting the top of a descending channel and undergoing huge correction currently. This paves the way for potential fall from 82.00 to 80 then 79.
The bearish trend remains strong as price got rejected from the 100-day moving average (4H timeframe). A break above 83 could signal bullish move.
Note: Keep an eye on unexpected movements due to Fed's meeting minutes and ongoing conflict between Palestine and Israel.
Support lines: 80.00
Resistance lines: 83.00
Comment down below your thoughts about my analysis, Thank you!
Weekly Price PredictionProjected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $78.00 (Min) and $84.50 (Max). This projection is based on a combination of technical indicators and historical price action.
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement Breakout:
Last week witnessed a downside breakout from the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line. Despite this, the decline has not been rapid, suggesting a potential stabilisation and support in the current price region.
Volume Profile Analysis:
Utilising a Fixed Range Volume Profile from the trough at the end of June to the peak at the end of September provides crucial insights.
Point of Control (POC): Identified at $84.50, indicating a level of potential future resistance and good liquidity.
High Volume Nodes (HVM):
Bottom HVM: Signifying an area of good liquidity and a potential support region, preventing a rapid decline from the 0.5 Fibonacci breakout.
Upper HVM: Acting as both a resistance level and a zone where the price has historically stalled after the first peak.
Low Volume Node (LVM): Reflects a lack of liquidity, leading to rapid price movements. Notable price fluctuations occurred between October and November in this region, ranging from $91.00 to $87.00 and back up to $90.00.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
The MACD at the top of the chart is displaying a potential crossover, suggesting upward movement. Similarly, the Stochastic RSI at the bottom of the chart is showing signs of a bullish crossover.
Additional Factors
Prior Support/Resistance (Blue Line):
Just above the Bottom HVM, a blue line represents a prior support/resistance level. This is now a potential resistance level.
Geopolitical Events:
Given the volatile nature of the commodities market, traders are advised to stay vigilant regarding any geopolitical events in the upcoming week, as these events can significantly impact oil prices.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the current price level has solid support from the Bottom HVM and technical indicators like MACD and Stochastic RSI are signalling potential upward movement, caution is warranted. The presence of the blue resistance line suggests a potential obstacle. Traders should monitor this level closely, and risk management strategies should be implemented. The projected price range is between the Bottom High Volume Node and the Point of Control.
Brent (ICE) (F4) Intraday May fall -3.20 %Pivot: 78.70
Our preference:
short positions below 78.70 with targets at 76.60 & 75.60 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
above 78.70 look for further upside with 79.40 & 80.20 as targets.
Comment:
as long as the resistance at 78.70 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 76.60 remains high.
BCOUSD#Brent Crude Oil - H1
📣 Considering the chart structure on the 1-hour timeframe, with the breaches of the internal downtrend line in the range of 81.91, there is an expectation of price growth towards the range of 84.00.
⛔ Stop Loss: 80.50
On the other hand, with the breakdown below the 80.50 range, one may consider selling with a target of 78.50.
⛔ Stop Loss: 81.91
Oil Reverse Inverse Cup &HandleOil Reverse Inverse Cup &Handle
1.Price Formation: The price has broken out from a Reverse Inverted Cup & Handle price formation on a daily chart.
2.Moving Averages: The 7-day moving average (MA) is below the 21-day MA, which is a further confirmation of bearish sentiment.
3.200-day Moving Average is above the Price.
4.Thus, Mas 7<21<200
5.Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is < than 50, indicating bearish momentum and potential further downward movement.
6.Price Target: 70
Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news:
→ Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas;
→ the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict.
Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August.
Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover:
→ on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance;
→ during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers;
→ USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November.
If sellers strengthen their control, it is possible that the price of Brent oil may reach the lower line of the channel and thereby get closer to the forecasts of Citi analysts. In their opinion:
→ the forecast Brent price is USD 73 by the second quarter of 2024;
→ the forecast Brent price at the end of 2024 is at USD 68 per barrel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.