WTI Crude Oil Testing Make-or-Break Support ZoneWTI crude is grinding into a pivotal horizontal support near 6,020 after another sharp rejection near the 50-day SMA:
Support at Risk: Price is pressing into the horizontal support zone formed by May’s lows (~6,020). A clean break below would shift momentum back decisively to the downside.
Bearish Structure: Price remains well below both the 50- and 200-day SMAs, which are angled downward—consistent with a medium-term downtrend.
Momentum Fading: MACD is negative and turning lower again, while RSI is stuck near 45 and showing no bullish divergence.
Next Support: If support fails, next downside level is likely around the YTD low near 5,400.
As it stands, bears remain in control unless bulls can defend this floor and drive a breakout back above the 50-day SMA.
-MW
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
USOIL:Go long first
Crude oil short-term trend to maintain weak shock upward rhythm, K line closed long lower shadow line, there are signs of rebound. Short - term moving average system gradually long arrangement, relying on oil prices, short - term objective trend direction to upward. It is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to extend upward, hitting around 62.8-63
Recommended Trading Strategies:
61-61.2 range to be long, short-term target to see 62, break through the target to see 62.8-63
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WTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh GainsWTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh Gains
WTI Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $63.50.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude climbed above the $60.90 and $61.50 resistance levels.
- There is a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a fresh upward move from $60.10 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $60.90 resistance.
The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. The price even climbed above the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $62.15 resistance zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. There is now a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30.
The RSI is now near the 50 level and the price could aim for more gains. If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $62.15. The next major resistance is near the $62.65 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $63.45 level or even $65.00.
Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $61.30 support level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $60.90 zone, below which the price could test the $60.10 zone.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.50 support zone.
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WTI Crude Slips as Inventory Build Fuels Bearish MomentumWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged lower overnight, extending its recent pullback following the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 9. The data revealed an unexpected build of 3.45 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, contrasting sharply with the prior week's 2.03 million-barrel draw and defying market expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline.
This surprise uptick in stockpiles signaled softening demand, compounding existing bearish sentiment and sparking a fresh wave of selling. WTI has since declined approximately 2% from the May 13 high of $63.68, suggesting growing downside pressure.
Technically, the price action appears poised to retest the key intermediate support at $60.00, a psychologically significant level. A decisive break below this area could expose the next major support at $55.12, a pivotal zone that aligns with the prevailing 7th March 2022 long-term downtrend. A breach of this support zone would likely confirm a broader bearish reversal, marking a critical milestone for oil markets.
On the contrary, oil prices may consolidate around the $60.00–$61.50 range before moving higher. If buying interest increases, prices could rise toward the key $63.71–$65.70 cluster zone. A decisive break above $66.00 could further interest near-term gains and short to medium term uptrend.
Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues, with sentiment likely to remain fragile in the near term.
USOIL A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 61.87
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 61.38
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
WTI CRUDE OIL: Mirror pattern calls for a sell.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.222, MACD = -0.370, ADX = 25.154) as the price is just under the 1D MA50, where it got rejected last Tuesday. In the meantime, it has the support of the 4H MA50, hence stuck inside a neutral range. This pattern is however identical to April, after which the price declined aggressively to the S1 level. Sell, TP = 56.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USOILUSOIL (WTI Crude) Fundamentals – May 2025
1. Supply and Demand Dynamics
Global Oil Demand:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow from 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 to around 650,000 bpd for the rest of 2025, reflecting economic headwinds and record-high efficiency gains.
The IEA’s latest report (May 2025) estimates total demand will rise by 741,000 bpd in 2025, reaching 103.9 million bpd, with emerging markets (China, India, Africa, Latin America, Middle East) driving most of the growth.
OECD demand is expected to decline, while non-OECD demand remains geographically diversified.
Global Oil Supply:
Global crude oil and liquids supply is forecast to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up 1.8 million bpd (+1.7%) from 2024.
Non-OPEC+ countries (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada) are expected to contribute most of the supply growth, potentially resulting in a supply surplus.
OPEC+ extended its 3.7 million bpd supply cuts to the end of 2026, but voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out starting April 2025.
Supply-Demand Balance:
The EIA expects a supply surplus in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth outpaces demand increases, especially with OPEC+ phasing out some cuts.
2. Inventory and Refinery Data
U.S. Inventories:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels at the end of April, now about 6% below the five-year seasonal average.
Gasoline and distillate inventories remain below average, suggesting tightness in refined product markets.
U.S. refineries are operating at 88.6% capacity, with robust input and flat-to-lower gasoline production.
3. Geopolitical and Macro Factors
Trade Policy and Geopolitics:
Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have improved risk sentiment and supported oil prices.
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums, but the market remains sensitive to any setback in negotiations.
OPEC+ Compliance:
OPEC+ compliance with production cuts was high (112%) in March 2025, tightening supply and helping prices rebound from recent lows.
4. Price Trends and Outlook
Current Prices:
WTI crude is trading around $62.80–$63.50, rebounding from recent lows but still well below early 2025 peaks.
Price volatility remains high (Brent’s 30-day realized volatility peaked at 35%), reflecting sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inventory data.
Forecasts:
J.P. Morgan maintains a Brent forecast of $66/bbl for 2025, with expectations for prices to remain under pressure due to supply surplus, but potential for mid-$70s if trade optimism and OPEC+ discipline persist.
Futures markets price WTI at an average of $75/bbl for 2025, though this is above current spot prices.
Summary Table
Factor Current Status/Impact (May 2025)
Global Demand Growth Slowing, driven by emerging markets
Global Supply Rising, led by non-OPEC+ (US, Brazil, Guyana)
OPEC+ Policy Extended cuts, gradual phase-out
US Inventories Below 5-year average, supporting prices
Geopolitical Risk Lower, but market remains headline-sensitive
WTI Price Range $62.80–$63.50 (recent), futures avg $75/bbl
Volatility High, driven by macro and geopolitical uncertainty
Conclusion
USOIL fundamentals for May 2025 reflect a market balancing slower demand growth, robust non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious optimism on geopolitics. Ongoing OPEC+ discipline and below-average inventories provide some support, but the risk of a supply surplus and persistent volatility keep prices capped. Watch for trade policy shifts, OPEC+ compliance, and inventory trends as key catalysts for the month.
USCRUDEOIL - Potential SellHi Traders,
Here is my view on CMCMARKETS:USCRUDEOIL
BIAS: SELL
Logical Analysis:
From April 2020 to March 2022, oil experienced strong buyer demand, pushing price aggressively from the $7 level up to around $120.
At that point, sellers stepped in, and a temporary agreement between buyers and sellers was established around the $120 zone — a fair value at the time.
Since March 2022, price has been declining — entering a discount phase.
However, the move has not been sharp or aggressive, suggesting sellers are not in a rush.
Importantly, no significant buyer interest has been observed during this entire discounted phase.
🛒 Interpretation:
The “store” (market) offered oil at a huge premium until buyers stopped stepping in at high prices. Since then, the price has been marked down gradually, waiting for a new batch of interested buyers — who haven’t shown up yet but be aware.
Technical Analysis: see chart
Good Luck
WTI Crude Oil awaits inventoriesPrice Movement: WTI Crude trades around $62.70 per barrel, marking a fourth straight session of gains.
Main Bullish Driver: Geopolitical tensions — reports suggest Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear sites, sparking fears of supply disruption from Iran (OPEC’s 3rd largest producer).
Risk of Iran retaliating by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE.
Limiting Factor: Rising U.S. crude supply
API data shows a 2.49 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, defying expectations of a draw.
Traders await confirmation from EIA stockpile data later today.
Conclusion:
Bullish momentum is currently driven by Middle East tension, but gains may be capped if U.S. inventory builds continue. Traders should watch for EIA data release and further geopolitical developments.
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Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short SetupInternational oil prices have been supported by the temporary easing of trade tensions and buying sentiment attracted by a double bottom. However, the upside for oil prices remains limited, mainly due to the impact of Trump's uncertain tariff policies on the economy and the OPEC+ strategy of maintaining production increases. In the forward view, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran Nuclear Agreement and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. If the agreements are reached, pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. During the summer oil consumption peak season, the incremental oil demand in major consuming countries may be affected by factors such as the bleak prospects of economic recovery and the substitution of new energy, keeping oil prices under pressure. On the daily chart, crude oil closed with a small bullish candle, with the high price breaking above the previous high and the low price not breaking below the previous low, forming an breakout pattern. Crude oil has shown upward momentum after consecutive oscillations, and key attention should be paid to whether the resistance level at 63.6 is broken.
Trading Strategy:
sell@62.5-63.0
TP:61.0-61.5
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Crude oil: 63.00 resistance & 60.00 support keyPrices are currently testing the upper resistance at $63.00 📈. These levels are suppressing the price 🔻. A decisive breakthrough above this level may trigger a more intense upward rally 🔥. Meanwhile, recent selling pressure has pushed the price down to $60.60 📉. Watch the pivot support at $60.00, the real downward target 🎯
Crude oil surplus expanded in April, and imports increased, reaching multi - month highs from some countries 🌍. If global benchmark oil prices rise in the future, purchases may be reduced 📉.
Crude oil fell first and then rose today 📊. After a deep dive to $60.9, it stabilized and started to rise 🔼. After the previous price increase and adjustment, it remains to be seen if the upward momentum will continue and break through upwards 🔍.
Overall, on the delivery day, oil prices are volatile 🔼🔽. Watch the resistance at $63.0 on the upside and the support at $60.60 - $60.0 on the downside 👀.
⚡️⚡️⚡️ USOil ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 62.50 - 62.30
🚀 TP 61.50 - 60.60
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 61.86
Target Level: 55.95
Stop Loss: 65.80
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup🔻 Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short Setup – Trend Exhaustion with Bearish Risk/Reward Play
Crude oil has shown weakness after failing to reclaim the $62.50–63.00 resistance zone. Price is now consolidating near the breakdown level, and early signs of bearish continuation are forming. SQZMOM histogram is flattening near zero, hinting at loss of bullish momentum. This setup offers a high-probability short with favorable downside extension.
📉 Entry: 61.97
🎯 Target: 57.83
🛑 Stop Loss: 63.87
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.18
📆 Expected Duration: ~5 days
📌 Technical Highlights:
Bearish Retest: Price is stalling at previous broken support turned resistance.
Trend Weakness: Lower highs forming after recent top at 63.87.
SQZMOM Indicator: Momentum stalling below zero, signaling a potential shift back to bearish pressure.
Support Gap: Clean range down to $58 with thin volume structure below $60.
💬 A break below 60.12 confirms momentum shift. A close above 62.50 invalidates the short.
The main strategy is to go long on pullbacksDuring the Asian trading session on Monday, Brent crude fell slightly by $0.05 to $65.15 per barrel; WTI crude was quoted at $61.76, while the more actively traded July contract dropped $0.04 to $61.93. Both benchmark oil prices recorded weekly gains of over 1% last week, mainly boosted by the easing of global trade sentiment. The market will closely monitor data to be released soon by a major Asian economy, including April industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales. ANZ Bank noted in a report that weak data from the major Asian economy could undermine the optimism brought by the tariff suspension, thereby pressing down oil prices.👉👉👉
The K-line closed as a yang line with a long lower shadow, indicating strong bullish momentum from buyers. The moving average system is gradually arranging in a bullish formation, relying on the oil price, and the short-term objective trend direction has turned upward. It is expected that the intraday crude oil trend will continue to rise, reaching near 63. Overall, in terms of crude oil trading strategies, it is recommended to focus on buying low on pullbacks and supplement with selling high on rebounds. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance at the 63.0-63.5 level above, and the support at the 61.0-60.5 level below.
Oil trading strategy:
buy @ 61.00-61.50
sl 60.00
tp 62.30-62.80
If you think the analysis helpful, you can give a thumbs-up to show your support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments. Thank you for reading!👉👉👉
Crude Oil Analysis 16-May-2025Crude oil analysis and what are the possible scenarios we could see.
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WTI Update | Oil CrashSince the last update we were able to perform about two to three swing trades. One from $70 - $79, and from $79 to $68. The next move I'm looking for is another short position from current market price ~($62) to swing to the next major low $33.
We saw a rejection last week and we're currently pulling back to retest the little selloff we had.
Could say this next local move will look to selloff mid week making its way back to $57 which would be a nice short term swing.
The $33 target would be the long term swing of course and moving on I would like to see a break below $57 and a retest.
WTI Oil H4 | Potential bullish bounceWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 60.44 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 57.60 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 63.68 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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