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Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
WTI Crude Oil USOUSD LongIn my humble opinion, the worst seems to be over for oil. Trading Idea: After analyzing multiple sessions, I noticed how well the price has absorbed the recent drop, reclaiming the liquidity distribution from last month. There’s no strong indication of further downside. The Asian session has brought it into a solid accumulation range. I’m looking for an entry within the lower zone, aligned with a 15-minute FVG. Trade Management: Once the rally begins, I plan to take partial profits (40%) at yesterday’s NY session high, and let the remaining position run toward the swing high. I’m targeting a rally up to the $73 area, but will wait for additional high-probability confirmations as the rally unfolds. Risk: 0.50% R/R: 6.78
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by Jaytradermb
Supply/Demand Analytics on 2024 Oil: IEA-EIA Demand ProjectionDear Esteemed Members, There are several fundamental factors that could support the oil price reaching $76.09 per barrel, which is the highest level since November 2014. As the global economy rebounds from the pandemic, the demand for oil is expected to increase, especially in the second half of 2024. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, reaching 99.6 million bpd by the end of the year. The OPEC+ group of oil producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been maintaining a cautious approach to increasing output, in order to balance the market and avoid oversupply. The group agreed in April to gradually raise production by 2.1 million bpd between May and July, but this is still below the pre-pandemic levels of output. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has voluntarily cut an extra 1 million bpd from its production since February, which it plans to phase out by July. The US shale industry, which was hit hard by the price collapse in 2020, has been showing signs of discipline and prudence, focusing on improving cash flow and shareholder returns rather than expanding production. The US oil rig count, a proxy for drilling activity, has increased by about 100 rigs since the start of the year, but it is still more than 300 rigs lower than a year ago. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will average 11.2 million bpd in 2024, which is 0.3 million bpd lower than in 2020. The oil market is always susceptible to geopolitical tensions and conflicts that could disrupt supply or create uncertainty. Some of the current hotspots include Iran, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela. Iran, which has been under US sanctions that limit its oil exports, is engaged in indirect talks with the US to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which could lead to a lifting of sanctions and a return of Iranian oil to the market. However, the outcome of the negotiations is uncertain and could face opposition from hardliners in both countries. Libya, which has been plagued by civil war and instability, has seen its oil production fluctuate due to frequent attacks and blockades on its oil facilities. The country is currently producing around 1.2 million bpd, but it faces challenges in maintaining and increasing its output amid political and security risks. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is facing social unrest and militant attacks that could affect its oil infrastructure and exports. The country is also struggling to implement a long-awaited reform of its oil sector, which could improve its governance and attract investment. Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has seen its oil industry collapse due to mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions. The country’s oil production has fallen from over 3 million bpd in the late 1990s to less than 0.5 million bpd in 2020. Kind Regards, Ely
TVC:USOILLong
by Elysian_Mind
USOIL Potential Downtrend Line Breakout At $69.79 06.09.2024USOIL: Potential breakout above $69.79 on 1hr chart. Target: $70.74, $71.50 if breakout holds. Support: $68.57, $67.02 if breakout fails. Apply risk management Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure. BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd. BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene. BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350) Disclaimer
TVC:USOILLong
by Stuart_Cowell
Instrument: WTI Crude OilCurrent Price: $69.29 Overall Bias: Neutral to Bearish (Short-term downside risk) Key Observations: 1. 12-Month Chart (Long-Term): • Price Action: WTI Crude is currently trading at $69.29, having retraced from a high of $98.59. • Fibonacci Levels: • The price is currently hovering around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $73.80. • 0.618 level (strong support) lies at $67.94. • Support Levels: Key long-term support is at $67.94. A breakdown below this could lead to further downside towards $60.70. • Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at $77.00 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement). • Volume: 411.056M, signaling significant long-term trading activity. 2. 1-Month Chart: • Price Action: WTI Crude peaked at $135.00 and has been correcting ever since. The price is now around $69.29 after finding support in the $60-70 range. • Support Levels: $69.29 is the immediate support, with major long-term support at $56.82. • Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $75.00 and the next key resistance around $96.10 (0.236 Fibonacci level). • RSI: RSI is sitting at 59.40, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, but still within a broader downward structure. 3. 1-Week Chart: • Price Action: Crude oil is attempting to rebound from the $67.94 level (close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement). • Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29 and the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $67.94. • Resistance Levels: Strong resistance lies at $84.00 (close to the 0.382 Fibonacci level). Above that, $96.10 would be the next significant level to watch. • RSI: 50.49, suggesting crude is at a neutral point with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. • Stochastic Oscillator: Positioned at 17.06, which is nearing the oversold region, implying potential for a bounce in the short term. 4. 1-Day Chart: • Price Action: The daily chart shows crude struggling at $69.29. A target of $81.51 is visible, but only if the price can hold above current levels. • Support Levels: Immediate support at $69.29, with potential downside to $65.55 and further to $60.70. • Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00 and $81.51. • RSI: RSI at 40.41, indicating the asset is nearing oversold territory. • Stochastic Oscillator: 15.95, which is also signaling oversold conditions. This suggests there could be a short-term bounce before further downside. 5. 4-Hour Chart: • Price Action: WTI Crude recently tested support at $67.95 but is showing some consolidation around $69.29. There’s potential for a short-term bounce, but downside risks remain significant. • Support Levels: Immediate support at $65.55. If broken, this could lead to a drop towards $60.70. • Resistance Levels: Resistance at $77.00, with a target of $84.00 if bullish momentum picks up. • RSI: 32.23, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. • Stochastic Oscillator: Deep into oversold territory at 9.13, suggesting an imminent bounce is possible. 6. 30-Minute Chart: • Price Action: The short-term structure shows a local high of $87.56 before a steady decline to $69.29. • Support Levels: Immediate support lies at $68.04, and below that, $65.55 becomes critical. • Resistance Levels: Short-term resistance is at $77.00. • RSI: 34.77, indicating oversold conditions, suggesting there could be a short-term bounce. • Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 36.10, signaling that downward pressure could persist in the short term. Trading Strategy: Primary Bias: Neutral to Bearish with potential short-term bounce • Short Position: • Entry: If WTI Crude fails to hold above $69.29 and starts breaking down below $67.94 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), this could be an opportunity to short. • Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss above $77.00 (immediate resistance). • Take-Profit Levels: • First target: $65.55. • Second target: $60.70 (0.764 Fibonacci level). • Aggressive target: $56.82. • Long Position (Bounce Play): • Entry: If WTI Crude holds above the $67.94 level and shows signs of a reversal, consider a long position. • Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below $65.55 to manage downside risk. • Take-Profit Levels: • First target: $77.00. • Second target: $81.51. • Aggressive target: $84.00. Risk Management: • Position Sizing: Given the volatile nature of crude oil, use conservative position sizing to manage risk, especially with the potential for sharp reversals. • Stop-Loss: Always keep strict stop-losses in place as the downside potential remains significant, especially if $67.94 support breaks. Conclusion: WTI Crude Oil is at a critical juncture, currently trading near its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $67.94. A break below this level could open the door to further downside, with potential targets at $65.55 and $60.70. However, oversold conditions on multiple time frames suggest that a short-term bounce is possible. For bearish traders, a breakdown below $67.94 is a trigger for shorts, with targets around $65.55 and $60.70. Bullish traders should watch for support holding at $67.94, with upside targets at $77.00 and $81.51 if the rebound materializes.
TVC:USOILShort
by stonaola1
1
Drop Base Drop Pattern: A Technical Analysis PerspectiveDefinition: The Drop Base Drop pattern is a technical chart pattern that indicates a potential continuation of a downtrend. It consists of a sharp decline in price, followed by a period of consolidation or sideways movement (the base), and then a resumption of the downtrend. Formation: First Drop: A significant price decline. Base Formation: A period of consolidation or sideways movement, often below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline. Second Drop: A continuation of the downtrend, breaking below the base's low. Trading Implications: Sell Signal: If the Drop Base Drop forms below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in a downtrend, it suggests a potential continuation of the bearish trend. Risk Management: Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. Confirmation: Seek additional technical indicators or chart patterns to reinforce the bearish signal. Key Considerations: False Breakouts: Be cautious of false breakouts, where the price temporarily breaks below the base's low but then reverses. Market Conditions: The effectiveness of the pattern may vary depending on overall market conditions and the specific characteristics of the underlying asset. Individual Stocks: The pattern's reliability can differ between stocks. Analyze multiple timeframes and technical indicators for a more comprehensive assessment. Conclusion: The Drop Base Drop pattern can be a valuable tool for identifying potential downtrend continuations. However, it's essential to use it in conjunction with other technical analysis techniques and risk management strategies.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Trade_With_Prakash