Oil Short: Broke down trendlineI believe that oil will go down a lot more these 2 months for 2 reasons:
1. Broke down of trendline, and
2. Presidential election and democrats will want to bring down oil prices in order to win votes.
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
XTIUSD Out look Wti crude oil is has move in bearish direction and has broken its support also going to retest its broke below resistance level also 50 SMA is showing us on 1H a bearish trend and that bearish move is likely to continue
USOIL.. one n only area, hold or not??#USOIL... First market HITT our upside targeted areas and then dropped.
Now it reached near to his one of the most important supporting area 72.10
That level can change the overall acnerios of market.
Keep close it because if there is any kind of buying scnerio exist then it should be hold this area.
72.10
Keep close and stay sharp.
Good luck
Trade wisely
WTI Rises Above $84.50 Amid Summer Demand ExpectationsWith the peak of the summer travel season, marked by the Independence Day holiday this week, US oil demand is expected to surge. The American Automobile Association (AAA) projects travel during this period to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters.
Crude oil markets are further supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Israel-Palestinian Hamas conflict continues to create volatility in energy markets. Investors are concerned that a potential cross-border spillover could involve direct action from Iran, a Hamas supporter, threatening crude oil supplies and logistical stability in the region.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the steepest week-on-week decline in US Weekly Crude Oil Stocks in nearly two years. API data showed a significant weekly decrease of -9.163 million barrels, far exceeding the forecasted -150K drawdown and following the previous week’s -3 million barrel decline.
Given our forecast, we are currently considering a short position in the supply area. Typically, crude oil production for summer demand occurs in the preceding months, leading to higher oil prices before the summer season. Our seasonality analysis indicates that crude oil prices generally decline in trading from the end of July through September.
Therefore, we are now looking for a short position.
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USOIL / TRADING BELOW FVG AREA - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
The overall trend is downward , until trading below FVG .
As long as prices stay below the turning level of 74.78, a decline is expected, potentially reaching the support level (1) at 73.03, and then 71.51.
However, if prices break above the turning level and close a 4-hour candle above it, the trend may shift upward, with potential to reach the resistance level at 76.18. Breaking this resistance could lead to further gains, targeting 77.52.
KEY LEVELS :
TURNING LEVEL : 74.78
RESISTANCE LEVELS : 76.18 , 77.52
SUPPORT LEVELS :73.03 , 71.51
Weekly outlook Sep2-6 $USOILTVC:USOIL staring its trend toward $61 oil as expected. It would have to be an alarming geopolitical situation to turn the course of OIL back up
WTI Oil Updated Plans On FallsFears of lessening demand have dropped the value of Oil per barrel.
Key levels exist below and are very much worth noting for long side entries.
USOIL - Retest at 76.55 Before Bullish Momentum Aims for 79.49 Market Update: Retest and Bullish Continuation Expected
The price has already reached the resistance zone at 77.95, as noted in our previous analysis. Now, the price is expected to retest the 76.55 level before resuming its bullish trend towards 79.49.
Bullish Scenario:
For the bullish trend to continue, the price should stabilize above 77.94, targeting 79.49, with further potential to reach 80.73.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price stabilizes below 77.94, it could support a decline toward 76.55 and possibly down to 73.35.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 77.94
- Support Levels: 76.55, 75.35, 72.72
- Resistance Levels: 79.49, 80.73, 82.20
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to move between the support at 75.35 and the resistance at 82.20.
USOIL: Downside Potential RemainsUSOIL still has room to move down, based on my personal strategy and market analysis. Traders should assume their own risk when considering this viewpoint. This is not financial advice.
Oil baby, common you can do it! Do it!FA: Historically, when the Fed rate is lowered in the U.S., there is one very simple pattern - the collapse of commodities!
Of course, there are nuances related to the rate of downgrade....
Prices do not start falling at once... most often there is a time lag from 2-3 months to 8 months.
It is important to understand the following...
The USA controls oil prices (directly or indirectly - but the fact remains). Oil reserves in the states are low but last report showed very nice numbers (actual -0.8M vs forecast -2.7M)
Now catch the train of thought:
US will start a cycle of rate cuts- US has more than enough oil reserves - historically rate cuts are a drop in oil prices
TA: After aggressive movement till 4h gap, price went down as expected with first MS, then price went up to test BTS zone and made second shift (BoS) and came into bullish 4h fvg. Now there are 3 options:
1 - move higher till 4h fvg into premium , rebalance and final move till EQL at 71.4$ area
2 - fail 73.3 area from market opening with potential move downwards till EQL
3 - Breaking above 4h FVG with target at 77.55$, this option can be considered only after closing above 4h fvg on 1h+ time frame with candle's body
$77.78 possible!?From here stops looks narrow.
R/R BIG.
Maybe some stop hunt kinda thing can happen..
Trade your way...
USOIL BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
The BB lower band is nearby so USOIL is in the oversold territory. Thus, despite the downtrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bullish reaction from the support line below and a move up towards the target at around 76.95.
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WTI OIL formed 1st 1W Death Cross in 4.5 years!The last long-term signal (July 09, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) was a rejection (sell) at the top of the former Triangle (Lower Highs trend-line):
The price not only broke below both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also the bottom of the Triangle. The result this week is the formation of a 1W Death Cross, the first one since the COVID crash back in March 2020!
Naturally this is a strong bearish signal, which will be confirmed if the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line. If it does we may see a fatal market collapse, as this is a cyclical signal (observe the Sine Waves). In May 2009, it was invalid as the Housing Crisis preceded it, in November 2014 it was halfway through the sell-off of the Oil Crisis and Chinese economic slowdown and in March 2020 it came earlier relative to the previous two but still after the price broke below the Higher Lows trend-line.
As a result, this trend-line is of the utmost importance currently and only if broken (and close a 1M candle below it) can we consider a similar collapse. If it does, we expect at least $45.00, on the way to the Symmetrical Support Zone test.
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Crude Oil Quarterly Will crude oil signal another INFLATIONARY cycle OR a DEFLATIONARY bust?
We are entering quarterly defined support zone, currently on BRINK OF COLLAPSE.
I DO NOT want to see quarterly closes BELOW 67$.
#inflation #recession #energy #crudeoil #oil
USOIL : Weekly Technical AnalysisHi Traders!
Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday due to demand concerns driven by weak economic growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer.
Brent crude fell 1% to US$76.77 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.1% to US$73.50/b at last look early Tuesday. Demand concerns offset impacts of the production and export halt at Libya due to a political dispute, Reuters said in a Tuesday report.
China's purchasing managers' index hit a six-month low in August and new home prices grew in the month at their weakest pace this year.
Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its El Feel oil field from Sept. 2. Total production in the country had dropped to just over 591,000 barrels per day (b/d) as of Aug. 28 from nearly 959,000 b/d on Aug. 26, Reuters reported, citing NOC.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly set to proceed with its planned output boost in October regardless of demand concerns, Reuters reported, citing unnamed industry sources.
From a technical point of view, the break of the support (left wing) should confirm our bearish harmonic structure and subsequently push the price around $55. If OPEC confirms an increase in production, this element could support our idea. What do you think?
