Crude Oil Gets Trapped Back Inside 3-Year Down trending ChannelAfter failing to close above the upper border and the 78 resistance level, and amid renewed hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices dropped sharply back toward the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation—initially broken ahead of the recent war escalation—at 64.70.
A sustained move below that neckline could target crude prices toward the mid-zone of the established channel, near 63.40 and 61.40, where another rebound may take shape.
On the upside, if a clear recovery re-emerges above the 72-mark, the potential for a breakout above the 78-resistance could return, opening the door to revisit the 80 and 83.50 highs.
— Razan Hilal, CMT
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
WTI Oil: further downside?Front page news this morning focussed on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, first announced by US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. However, reports recently emerged of Iran firing missiles, seemingly violating the ceasefire, but no confirmation has been received yet. The point is that things remain somewhat uncertain as of writing.
The technical front, nevertheless, is interesting on WTI Oil (West Texas Intermediate), and ultimately points to a moderate pullback before heading lower.
Monthly descending triangle in play
The flow on the monthly chart reveals that price action completed a descending triangle in April this year, formed between US$95.00 and US$64.41. Following the breach of the lower boundary and refreshing year-to-date (YTD) lows of US$55.15, a determined pullback materialised and resulted in the unit testing the upper barrier of the pattern. As you can see, the test has held for now, with June poised to end the month considerably off its best levels.
Given that price has aggressively rejected the upper boundary of the triangle formation, and if we see WTI push to fresh YTD lows, this would unearth a possible bearish scenario in the direction of support from US$42.57.
Daily Fibonacci resistance
Across the page on the daily chart, you will note that recent flow touched gloves with support at US$64.55, a level complemented by a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at US$64.76, a trendline support (extended from the low of US$55.40), and a neighbouring 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at US$63.70. Given that the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio also represents an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support pattern, traders that are long from US$64.55 may aim for the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios of US$69.53 and US$72.59. Consequently, both of these lines serve as potential resistance levels to watch.
H1 confluence
With monthly price suggesting further selling, and daily resistance on the table, the H1 chart shines the spotlight on two levels of resistance at US$68.35 and US$70.14. However, I am more drawn to the latter level as a potential resistance. This is because it converges closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio on the daily timeframe mentioned above at US$69.53, as well as a nearby 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio on the H1 chart at US$69.13.
As a result, my focus will be on H1 resistance between US$70.14 and US$69.13.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
The latest layout for crude oil today.With geopolitical risks gradually easing, oil prices have deviated significantly from macroeconomic and fundamental guidance. While Iran's situation has shown signs of mitigation, the single-day decline in oil prices was excessive. We believe current oil prices have reached a reasonable range: short positions can still be held, but chasing further shorting is no longer advisable.
On the daily chart, crude oil formed a large bearish candlestick with both no upper and lower shadows, directly breaking below support and continuing to decline. After breaking above the previous high, the breakdown of support indicates that oil prices are falling back again to seek a new trading range. Today, the focus remains on the sustainability of the bearish momentum.
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Trading Strategy:
sell@68.5-69.0
TP:64.5-64.0
USOIL Buy- Go for buy if entry setup given
- Refine entry with smaller SL for better RR, if your strategy allow
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Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful toThree Driving Logics Behind Oil Price Collapse: From Geopolitical Ebb to Supply Loosening
(1) The "Security Pledge" for Strait of Hormuz Materializes
As the "lifeblood" for 30% of global seaborne crude oil, blockade expectations for the Strait of Hormuz were the core support for oil prices above $75. However, during the recent attacks, Iran deliberately avoided the strait's vicinity and even issued navigation safety bulletins via the International Maritime Organization (IMO)—this explicit signal of "no supply disruption" eliminated market panic over a "11 million bpd supply outage." Historical parallels show that after Iran attacked U.S. bases in 2020, oil prices surged 4.5% before rapidly reversing to a 1% decline due to the same "uninterrupted supply" logic—a pattern repeating today.
(2) OPEC+ Production Hike Expectations "Undercut the Foundation"
Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ has stuck to its plan to increase output by 411,000 bpd in July, with producers like Saudi Arabia hinting at "further capacity releases if necessary." This combination of "production pledge + supply stability" directly hedges against geopolitical risk premiums. More crucially, while U.S. crude inventories dropped by 11.47 million barrels last week, strategic reserve replenishment demand remains uninitiated, leaving markets focused on potential "oversupply" from OPEC+'s actual production increases.
(3) Aftermath of Trump's "Ceasefire Smokescreen"
Trump's earlier announcement of a "comprehensive Israel-Iran ceasefire"—though unconfirmed by official sources—planted expectations of "conflict resolution" in the market. When Iran opted for "symbolic attacks" over all-out retaliation, capital accelerated its exit from geopolitical risk exposures: data shows WTI net long positions have dropped from 179,100 contracts to 123,000 contracts, with the rapid exodus of speculative capital amplifying price declines.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL sell@64~64.5
SL:66
TP1:63.5~63
WTI Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025
WTI: ⬇️ Sell
- WTI reversed from the resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 76.45 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of last year), the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the weekly down channel from 2024.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the C-wave of the earlier weekly ABC correction (4) from April.
Given the clear weekly downtrend, WTI crude oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 65.00 (a former yearly low from 2024).
Crude Oil Trade Setup – Macro Narrative Aligned | WaverVanir DSS📍Instrument: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
📊Timeframe: 15M | Methodology: Smart Money Concepts + Fibonacci + Volume Profile + ORB
🔍Framework: VolanX DSS | WaverVanir International LLC
📈 Trade Thesis
While much of the world remains fixated on short-term rate expectations and gold/oil volatility, this chart reflects clear SMC structure aligned with the macro backdrop:
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and strategic energy hoarding by global players continue to apply pressure to oil supply narratives.
Inventories remain tight while BRICS+ nations move toward commodity-backed currency talks—oil being the anchor.
The Fed’s neutral stance combined with softening global PMIs points to a fragile growth phase, supporting rebalancing trades into tangible assets like oil.
🧠 Technical Breakdown
Premium/Discount Model in Play:
Current price retraced after rejecting the premium zone at 77.10 with strong bearish volume and confluence at the 1.0 Fib level.
Buy Zone 1:
Around 75.26, near 0.618 retracement—ideal for short-term scalpers with tight invalidation.
Buy Zone 2:
74.18–73.85 marked as Discount OB zone + ORB LOD + VWAP deviation.
Liquidity engineered below BOS—favorable risk-reward for swing re-entry.
Volume Spike Confirmation near 73.90 during London session sweep = high-probability demand.
🧭 Trade Plan
✅ Entry #1: 75.26 – Speculative order flow entry
✅ Entry #2: 74.18 – Confirmed bullish OB zone
🛑 SL: Below 73.70 (invalidates BOS reclaim + OB)
🎯 TP: 77.10 (weak high) and partials at 76.00–76.50
⚠️ Trailing stop after reclaiming 75.70
🧠 Narrative Alignment
As the world shifts toward resource realism, oil becomes more than a trade—it's a proxy for power, policy, and protectionism. This isn’t just a chart—it's a window into the realignment of global influence.
📌 Volatility will be harvested. Order will emerge from imbalance.
—
#CrudeOil #SmartMoneyConcepts #WTI #MacroTrading #WaverVanir #VolanX #OrderFlow #EnergyMarkets #BRICS #FibonacciStrategy #LiquiditySweep #TradingView #TraderMindset
Oil’s Reaction to Geopolitical DevelopmentsOil’s Reaction to Geopolitical Developments
We must be cautious when trading oil.
Despite the unexpected attack by Israel on Iran last week, gold prices did not rise beyond $77.50.
In my view, oil prices remain largely under the influence of the U.S. and OPEC+, with Trump opposing any significant price increase.
Iran ranks as one of the world's top oil producers, holding the fifth position in daily output. However, it is surprising that prices did not exceed $77.50, especially considering past instances of major price surges during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Even if oil rebounds toward $80, this movement could be purely speculative, with a high likelihood of a pullback, as indicated by the technical chart.
Key target zones: 67.00 ; 64 and 56.50
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Is the oil market signalling de-escalation?After an initial 6% spike at the open, U.S. crude oil futures reversed sharply—falling into negative territory—as markets priced in the possibility that Iran's latest retaliation may be more symbolic than escalatory.
According to President Donald Trump, Iran gave advance notice before launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, allowing defences to intercept the attack and resulting in no reported casualties.
While Tehran publicly described the strike as “devastating and powerful,” the lack of impact on the ground and the pre-warning have fuelled speculation that Iran was aiming to save face without triggering a broader conflict.
The swift reversal in oil prices reflects that sentiment. For now, the market appears to be signaling that escalation may pause here.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Massive 4H MA50 bearish breakout.WTI Crude Oil has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.933, MACD = 2.900, ADX = 47.682) as it just broke with force under the 4H MA50. Every time this has taken place in the recent past, a strong downtrend followed. The last such selling sequence dropped by -23.71%. The 4H RSI is on the exact same spot as then. We are bearish, TP = 59.00.
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US CRUDE OIL LONG RESULT Crude Oil price has been in an overall bullish trend and after it broke out of the previously formed symmetrical triangle.
Tried to get in earlier but wasn't getting enough pullback levels tapped.
Almost got our S.l hit and also missed the Tp but still managed to close in profits.
_THE_KLASSIC_TRADER_.
KOG - OILQuick look at Oil. There is a pivot here in the golden zone around the 70.5 level which we can dip into. Above that level, we would be looking for higher oil with the potential target level on the chart. Note, oil is due a huge pull back, so rejection from one of these resistance levels can give us that pull back in order to get better pricing to long.
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Crude Oil Strategy LayoutThe rise in oil prices on Monday will not only push up household daily expenses such as fuel and heating costs, but also increase corporate operating costs, which may in turn suppress consumption and investment activities. Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in a Sunday analysis that against the backdrop of the Trump administration's high tariff policies, the U.S. economy was already facing pressure from a slowdown in growth, and the further increase in oil prices would exert "powerful pressure" on household consumption capacity. This may not only weaken consumers' willingness to purchase, but also drag down the pace of overall economic growth.
Crude oil showed a gap-up and then decline trend today, falling sharply from around $77.7. Oil prices gradually corrected today, with the lowest point touching around $72.5 and hovering there. Currently, oil prices are hovering above the support level of 72.0, which is expected to be the bottom support of the box movement. Taken together, crude oil is in a high-range consolidation. In terms of operation, it is considered to lay out long positions on pullbacks.
you are currently struggling with losses,or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
Crude Oil Eyes 3-Year Channel BreakoutCrude Oil trades between Israel-Iran-Conflict supply risks, overbought momentum, and the potential for a 3-year channel breakout.
While upside risks from a possible Strait of Hormuz closure remain uncertain, a firm hold above $78 could extend gains toward $80 and $83.50, keeping oil on a bullish edge for H2 2025.
A pullback into the channel may ease inflation concerns and reassert bearish pressure below the $80 mark. Key support lies at $72 for a potential downside resumption.
- Razan Hilal, CMT