Crude 1 hr - ST trade - Long at trendlineCrude has pulled back after the furious bounce yday
Buy close to trendline - narrow SL as per risk appetite
58 .5 can be a deep stop. target c 65
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
Long WTIUS10Y yield (white) and WTI typically trade in lockstep, but have recently diverged with US10Y rebounding while WTI has continued to observe selling pressure.
Expecting divergence to narrow, with WTI moving higher off recent lows. Entering long positions on WTI contracts.
USOIL:You need to refer to this strategyPresident Trump of the United States suddenly announced the suspension of tariffs, which led to a significant change in market sentiment.
Since tariffs play a crucial role in global economic relations and market expectations, this unexpected move has caused investors to adjust their investment portfolios.
As the new tariff suspension policy has reduced market uncertainties to a certain extent, gold, which is usually regarded as a safe-haven asset, has been sold off.
Conversely, the price of USOIL has soared, reflecting the market's rapid response to this major policy change.
If you're at a loss right now, don't face it alone. Please contact me. We are always ready to fight side by side with you.
bearsTechnically going to check the London sessions bottom.Commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels in the week ended April 4, and were about 5% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would rise by 2.1 million barrels.
WTI Crude Oil selling pressure continuationWTI Crude Oil is showing bearish sentiment, in line with the current downtrend. Recent price action confirms a break below a key consolidation zone, adding pressure to the downside.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 6065 (former support, now resistance), 6307, 6400
Support: 5480, 5336, 5200
Bearish Outlook:
Price has broken below 6065, which was a key intraday consolidation level. If WTI sees a short-term bounce but fails to break above 6065, it could resume its downward move toward 5480, then 5336, and possibly 5200 over time.
Bullish Scenario:
If WTI breaks above 6065 and closes above it on the daily chart, the bearish setup would be invalidated. This could open the door for a rally toward 6307, then 6400.
Conclusion:
The trend remains bearish below 6065. A rejection at this level would reinforce the downside bias. However, a confirmed break and daily close above 6065 would shift the outlook to bullish in the short term.
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WTI Oil H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.51 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 61.95 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 53.41 which is a support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Light Crudeoil hourly trend analysis on April 09, 2025Light Crude oil has given a short signal at 69.855 with a stop loss above 79.885. The bearishness will continue with a support at 55.005.
WTI Wave Analysis – 8 April 2025
- WTI broke the long-term support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 55.00
WTI crude oil recently broke the long-term support zone set between the support levels 60.00 and 65.00. This support zone has stopped all downward corrections from the middle of 2021.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active downward impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of 2024.
Given the strong downtrend seen on the weekly WTI charts, WTI crude oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 55.00, the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3).
WTI Continues Sharp Decline and Enters Oversold TerritoryOver the past five trading sessions, oil prices have dropped more than 17% , with WTI crude falling below the $60 per barrel mark. This move reflects ongoing market uncertainty, as investors expect the new trade war to significantly weaken oil demand in the coming months. As long as confidence remains in a fragile zone, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to persist.
Break of the Sideways Channel
In recent weeks, a key sideways channel that had held since November 2023 has been broken. This shift could alter the neutral outlook that has dominated the oil market in the long term and now points toward seller dominance. As price movements stabilize, a stronger bearish trend may begin to develop in the short term.
Oversold Conditions Appear
RSI: The RSI line is currently holding below the 30 level, which signals oversold conditions on the indicator. This suggests that while bearish pressure has been dominant, the market may be entering an early stage of exhaustion, potentially opening the door for short-term bullish corrections.
Bollinger Bands: The price has completely broken through the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that it has moved beyond two standard deviations from the mean. This reflects high volatility and could signal a pause in selling momentum. In turn, it may lead to potential rebound zones forming soon.
Key Levels:
$58 – Near Support: This is the most important short-term barrier, aligning with multi-year lows not seen since 2021. Continued selling below this level could reinforce the current bearish bias.
$66 – Near Resistance: This level marks the lower boundary of the former sideways channel. It may act as a potential zone for bullish corrections in the short term.
$73 – Distant Resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. Price action approaching this area could reactivate the previously abandoned uptrend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Trump vs. ChinaDonald Trump’s recent actions show strong similarities to key moments in history. His push for high tariffs on imports reminds us of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which aimed to protect American jobs but ended up hurting the economy when other countries struck back with their own tariffs. Today, we’re seeing the same pattern, Trump’s tariffs on China, the EU, and others have already led to retaliation, and experts warn this could lead to inflation or even a recession. His tough stance on immigration also echoes early 20th century laws like the Immigration Act of 1924, which restricted immigrants to preserve a so called “American identity.” Even his populist, anti elite tone reminds many of President Andrew Jackson, who presented himself as a voice for the common man while shaking up the political system.
On the home front and globally, Trump’s moves also reflect a shift toward isolation similar to what the U.S. tried after World War I. Back then, the U.S. pulled away from global cooperation, and it didn’t work out well. Now, Trump is cutting foreign aid and pulling out of major global agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and the WHO, which could weaken America’s role on the world stage. Domestically, his push to revive coal and cut diversity programs feels like turning back the clock on social and environmental progress. History has shown us that these kinds of decisions often have long term consequences. As the saying goes, history tends to repeat itself and if we don’t learn from it, we may find ourselves repeating the same costly mistakes.
Plotted by TrumpI’ve been telling people that this is just a panic sell that people are doing, just keep your position no matter which price it goes to. 55,50,45,40. Its okay because ive advised to buy crude without leverage for investing. Its time to buy more actually!
I got some more positions yesterday, and might get another if it falls to 55. 👌
Keep it up because our trades will be profitable😁
Wow the tariff situation definitely affected the oil movement..I'm wondering are we going to continue to go bearish this week I missed out on the drop but I'll be watching to see were I can still profit on the situation definitely share your input and feedback.
USOIL / WTI Futures OversoldWTI looks very oversold here and there are too many catalysts not to buy right now. Positive catalysts would happen on 'good news' related to tariffs/trade war, but catalysts could also be negative developments concerning (trade)war globally and opec.
Oil Sell - Trump wants this lower... Trading oil with current momentum. Stop at 1.5x daily ATR, targeting 1.21 fibo extension.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Potential bottom and massive rebound to 71.00.WTI Crude Oil got oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.096, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 38.232) but is recovering its 1W candle now as it hit the bottom (LL) of the 1 year Channel Down. If the 1W candle makes a green closing, we will consider this a bottom, as the 1W RSI is also on its LL trendline) and go for a long aimed as the previous one at the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 71.00).
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Tariff Panic = Opportunity | WTI Long SetupWTI Oil has finally dipped into my long-watched buy zone, driven by macro fear and an aggressive tariff agenda. The current drop aligned perfectly with my long-term execution plan. I’ve placed this trade based on key historical demand levels with my stop-loss and take-profit clearly defined. I’m prepared for deeper drawdown, but this area remains high-conviction for me. Execution > Prediction.
Technicals:
• Key Level: Price tapped into a major demand zone dating back to 2021 lows, which had been protected ever since.
• Liquidity Sweep: This drop mitigated every low formed post-2021 — clearing out late longs and stop hunts.
• Trendline Break Anticipation: I expect a potential trendline breakout from the long-term descending structure.
• SL/TP Defined: This trade has structure. It’s not a hope-based setup, it’s pre-planned and managed.
• Consolidation + Accumulation: This is where strong hands prepare, and I’m joining in.
Fundamentals:
• Tight supply, rising global demand, and structural underinvestment in oil exploration.
• Chinese reopening + Russian ban tighten market availability.
• Central banks expected to support demand via easing cycles.
• Oil Bearish Catalyst (Short-Term):
• US tariff wave: Trump announced a total 54% tariff on China and baseline tariffs on all trading partners.
• Escalating fears of global economic slowdown pushed prices to $58.80, a 4-year low.
The bearish panic gave bulls like us a gift. This is how real trades are born - not in euphoria, but in blood.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Crude below major support now. Intraday Update: Crude oil broke the 161% extension (lower) of the March 5th lows to April 2 lows, this is also below the support of the May 2021 lows and major horizontal support. ONLY a break back above the 61.70 level would take the downside pressure off.
WTI Oil H1 | Bearish downtrend to extend further?WTI oil (USOIL) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.52 which is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss is at 61.50 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 57.37 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Trump Goes "The Peacemaker", as Crude Oil Turns Gradually LowerThe notion that crude oil prices might decrease due to an abatement of the Ukraine's war not seems to be counterintuitive, as the conflict has historically led to increased oil prices due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
There are several factors that could contribute to a decrease in oil prices if tensions were to ease.
Factors Contributing to Decreased Oil Prices:
Easing of Sanctions on Russia: If tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine were to ease, it might lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia, potentially allowing more Russian oil to enter the global market. This increase in supply could help reduce prices.
Market Perception of Reduced Conflict: The market might perceive a decrease in conflict as a sign of reduced risk to global oil supplies, leading to lower prices. This perception could be influenced by expectations of increased oil availability from Russia and other regions.
OPEC Production Increases: If OPEC decides to increase production, as it has recently done, this could add more oil to the market, further pressuring prices downward.
Global Economic Concerns: Economic slowdowns or concerns about global growth can reduce demand for oil, leading to lower prices. The Ukraine conflict has contributed to economic uncertainty, and its abatement might not necessarily increase demand if global economic concerns persist.
Fundamental considerations
Well, in early March 2025, oil prices fell due to a combination of factors, including tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine and OPEC's decision to gradually increase output. Brent crude fell to around $71.08 per barrel, and WTI to about $68.01 per barrel.
Impact of Sanctions: Despite sanctions not directly targeting Russian oil, they have affected its exports by limiting financing and causing some buyers to avoid Russian crude. Easing these sanctions could increase Russian oil exports, potentially lowering global prices.
Market Dynamics: The war in Ukraine initially caused oil prices to surge due to supply concerns. However, if the conflict were to abate, market dynamics could shift, leading to decreased prices as supply risks diminish and global economic factors come into play.
Post war challenge
Crude oil and gasoline prices today are moderately lower, but crude oil tends to breakthrough a long-term 3 - to - 4 years low.
Crude oil prices are under pressure as US tariff uncertainty weighs on the outlook for energy demand.
Also, ramped-up Russian oil exports boost global supplies and are negative for prices.
In addition, crude prices have some negative carryover from Wednesday when weekly EIA crude inventories rose more than expected to a 7-month high.
Conclusion
In summary, while the Ukrainian war has historically driven oil prices up due to supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, an easing of tensions could lead to decreased prices through increased supply, reduced market risk, and global economic factors.
--
Best 'Peacemaking' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
WTI Breaks Flat Support – Eyes on $58.45WTI has completed a textbook flat continuation pattern with a bearish engulfing candle slicing below $65.40 support.
Price is now hovering near $60, with downside momentum targeting $58.45 and $56.50 next.
RSI remains deeply oversold near 26, hinting at potential for a relief bounce. However, as long as price stays below the 50 EMA ($69.05), bearish bias remains intact.
Market Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Crashes As Trade War EscalatesMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Crashes As Trade War Escalates
WTI Crude oil is down over 10% and remains at risk of more losses.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $65.00 support zone.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $60.70 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $72.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $70.00.
There was a steady decline below the $65.60 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $62.20 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $59.20 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $59.21, and the price is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above the $60.00 level. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $60.70 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $60.70.
The next resistance is near the $62.20 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.97 swing high to the $59.21 low. The main resistance is near a trend line at $65.60.
The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.97 swing high to the $59.21 low is also near $65.60. A clear move above the $65.60 zone could send the price toward $68.70. The next key resistance is near $71.85. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $72.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $59.20 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $58.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $55.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $52.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Multiple support for USOIL at 65.84 price levelWell, had you bought it at the support level, good. Fret not if you missed it.
For those who are more risk averse, you can wait for the breakout of the bearish channel first.
Please DYODD
