Crude Oil Stays Below Key $69.7 as Supply Fears MountCrude oil's downtrend resumed following the IEA report on oil reservation surplus and a strong dollar. If the 50-SMA holds, the price will likely revisit $66.8.
Article: fxnews.me
SPOTCRUDE trade ideas
USOil WTI Bullish 1:2 Trade1. Market Analysis:
Asset: US Oil (WTI Crude)
Timeframes: 1-hour (1H) and 4-hour (4H)
Setup: Bullish divergence observed on both 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes
Support Level: Price is near a strong support zone, providing a solid base for a potential bounce.
2. Divergence Details:
Bullish Divergence: Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are showing bullish divergence, indicating weakening bearish momentum as the price approaches strong support. This divergence can signal a potential reversal to the upside if confirmed by bullish price action.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Enter a long position when a bullish confirmation candle forms (such as a bullish engulfing or hammer candle) on the 1-hour chart after divergence confirmation. This candle should close above the support level for a stronger entry signal.
Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss just below the strong support level to protect against further downside risk. This positioning ensures risk is limited in case the support does not hold.
Take-Profit: Aim for a 1:2 or higher risk-reward ratio, targeting the next resistance levels on the chart. Consider recent highs or Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour timeframe as potential take-profit areas.
4. Risk Management:
Position Size: Determine position size based on risk tolerance, ensuring only a small percentage of capital is risked on this trade (e.g., 1-2%).
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aiming for at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio provides an advantageous setup, enhancing potential reward relative to risk.
5. Additional Confirmation:
Volume Analysis: Look for an increase in volume on the 1-hour chart as the price bounces from support to confirm strong buying interest.
Support-Resistance Alignment: Ensure the support level aligns well with recent price structure and support zones on higher timeframes to reinforce the strength of this setup.
6. Trade Execution:
Place Orders: Set buy orders, stop-loss, and take-profit levels according to the criteria above.
Monitor the Trade: Manage the trade by adjusting the stop-loss to break even or trailing it if the price moves strongly in your favor.
7. Review and Adjust:
Post-Trade Analysis: After closing the trade, review the outcome to evaluate effectiveness and learn from the trade setup.
WTI Trade idea. Longterm Setup formingI quickly breakdown the trade I caught this morning. continuation of fridays plays
OIL (extremely bearish)watch the 65$ level if broken i think oil will spiral down to 52$ then ultimately to 30$ with 17$ a possibility in case of a recession
USOIL:Today's short trading strategy
Crude oil began to contract delivery, the action of these two days should be relatively large, today's thinking or bearish, weekly line again closed negative, and the center of gravity began to move down, crude oil also fell below the bottom of the hour level, today's rebound continues to empty, do not chase, this position is the bottom of crude oil week, has been volatile for a few weeks;
Today the bearish pressure around 68.00 has been broken and is currently around 67.00, the lower target is seen around 66.00. Please do not continue to short after arrival, wait for the market to confirm before trading. Follow me for updates
Oil Swing Back to $77My next trade on oil is looking to be around 15% Mid term and about 7% for the short term as we see price idling at support levels to swing back to $72
Buy OpportunityEntry: Buy WTI Crude Oil CFDs at $66.88.
Stop Loss: $65.60 (below the recent low and key support).
Take Profit:
First target at $69.35 (close to previous resistance).
Second target at $72.79 (8.83% profit potential).
Timeframe: The move is expected to play out over the next 9-10 days, as indicated by the projection curve on the chart.
Analysis Breakdown:
Support and Resistance Levels:
The price seems to have found a support zone around $66.88.
Resistance levels are marked at $69.35, $71.65, and a higher level at $72.88.
Volume Profile:
Visible volume profile on the left side suggests strong activity in the highlighted zones, indicating areas of high liquidity and potential areas of support/resistance.
Momentum Indicator (Squeeze Momentum):
The lower panel shows a Squeeze Momentum Indicator.
The histogram is currently red, indicating bearish momentum, but there’s a hint of weakening bearish pressure as the bars are shrinking.
Potential Trade Setup:
Long Position: Entry at the support level of $66.88.
Stop Loss: Positioned below the $66.00 level (around $65.60).
Take Profit Levels: Targets are set at $69.35 (first target) and $72.79 (final target), aiming for an 8.83% upside move.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
The risk-reward ratio appears favorable based on the analysis, with a potential reward of around 5.91 points ($5.91 move up).
Tracking Key Reversal Points: Anticipating Shifts in Oil MarketOverview:
Timeframes: The chart shows two timeframes: 1-day (left) and 1-hour (right).
Price Levels: The analysis spans key levels around $78.42, $72.84, and below, identifying important support and resistance zones.
Main Concepts:
Wave Structure Analysis (Elliott Wave):
The chart illustrates wave counts to identify impulsive and corrective wave formations.
The 1-day chart displays a completed or ongoing complex wave structure involving labeled sub-waves (e.g., (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v)).
The 1-hour chart follows with detailed sub-waves in a downtrend, marking a potential end of a minor wave 5.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The analysis highlights break-of-structure (BOS) points, signaling trend shifts or confirmation of current momentum.
Order Blocks (OB) and Supply Zones:
The charts label areas of interest like the Bearish OB, which indicates potential resistance levels for short trades.
Liquidity Pools and Equilibrium Levels (EQL): Show possible areas where price may seek liquidity, triggering stops or reversals.
Swing Failure Patterns (SFP):
On the 1-hour chart, an SFP shows a failed attempt to break a previous high, indicating potential reversals at those points.
Step-by-Step Breakdown:
Left Chart (1-Day):
Wave Completion: Possible end of wave (iv) around $78.42.
Correction Analysis: The chart suggests a retracement towards $72.84, marked by liquidity inducements and previous buy-side stops (BSL).
Potential Moves: If a correction deepens, the internal wave count may extend, affecting the broader trend structure.
Right Chart (1-Hour):
Bearish Momentum: Highlights swing failure patterns, with downward trends forming lower highs and lows.
Wave Labeling: The (A)-(C) correction forms a bearish pattern, suggesting possible price reversal around the Bearish OB at $69.35.
Projection: If bearish momentum continues, expect a move towards the dealing range lows around $68.41.
Examples and Analogy:
Think of the swing failure patterns as warning signs—like a car struggling to pass a steep hill. If it fails, it rolls back, suggesting sellers are regaining control, which could lead to further declines.
Key Takeaways:
Primary Resistance: $69.35 (potential short entries).
Support Focus: $67.66 - $66.75 area, as noted on both timeframes.
Continued Monitoring: If price breaks the strong high invalidation point, the short-term bearish outlook could be invalidated.
Donald will pump and WTI will keep falling. Sell at 67,282.These are key targets for OIL short trade. Due to geopolitical situation in US, possible taxes on the Chinese products, and also the technical levels I´m expecting a weakening in the demand for OIL. The targets are key weekly levels, TP your trades partially as always. Don´t let your floating profit to disappear. Final target is at 56 till end of the year. Wish you good luck.
WTI continues to decline, even as Biden reverses policyAccording to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled.
TVC:USOIL fell during the Asian session on Monday (November 18), trading around $66.90/barrel, a drop equivalent to 2.43% on the day.
Basically, although the geopolitical situation is heating up, its impact on oil prices is limited. The main reason is that global demand is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor limiting the recovery of oil prices.
EIA inventories also increased last week, which is not favorable for a supply-side recovery in oil prices. According to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled.
Biden reverses policy on Russia-Ukraine conflict, allowing Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack Russia's homeland President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russia's homeland Russian land.
This is a major reversal in Washington's policy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days, but they did not disclose details due to concerns about operational security. There are still two months until President-elect Trump will take office on January 20.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months asked for Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. Biden's policy reversal has created some risks in the market, but it is also not considered good support for oil prices when there is a very high possibility that when Trump takes office, all policies related to the War in Ukraine will be abolished.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still maintaining the main downtrend sent to readers in previous publications with the current short-term target at about 66.44USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down with a steep slope and away from the oversold area, suggesting a broad bearish outlook ahead.
As long as WTI crude oil remains below its 21-day moving average (EMA21), it will still have a bearish near-term trend outlook. And once WTI crude oil is sold below 66.44USD it will have the conditions to fall a bit more with the target then being around 65.28USD.
During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 68.11 – 68.77USD
USOIL CHART ANALYSIS - NOV 18📊 USOIL CHART ANALYSIS
📈 Technical / Naked Price Action
⚖️ Overall Sentiment: Indecision 🍥
🎲 Hello traders!
Let’s take a closer look at TVC:USOIL , which is currently at a critical juncture. The price is sitting within the mid-range of a long-term yearly support zone that spans $68 - $64. At the moment, USOIL is hovering around the $67 mark, reflecting a high level of market indecision.
💡 Key Observations:
🔴 SELL Scenario: A sell opportunity arises if the price breaks below $64, signaling a bearish continuation.
🟢 BUY Scenario: A buy opportunity could emerge if the price closes above $68, potentially leading to a retest of the descending triangle’s resistance trendline near $76.
📌 Trading Tip:
For now, it’s best to exercise patience and wait for the market to decide its next path and confirm its direction.
🧠 Let’s Collaborate!
Share your ideas, thoughts, and charts in the 💬┃community-chat channel. Got questions? Let us know—we’re eager to hear how you think USOIL will move next!
Best Regards,
The NFX Team™ 💚
CRUDE OIL Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL keeps falling
Down but the price will
Soon hit a horizontal support
Of 65.24$ from where we
Will be expecting a
Local bullish correction
Buy!
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USOIL Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a buying opportunity around 67.70 zone, USOIL was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 67.70 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USOIL A HARMONIC CRAB FOR 100$HELLO FRIENDS
As i can see us oil is now trading near 67.00 $ i can see a strong horizontal Support Zone on Daily based and weekly based also we can see a bullish crap harmonic pattren with FIb retracement it can be a life changing trade we need patience time will decice
after theses over sold weeks on oil and wars are the world will boost the demand because wars r not based on EV, they need Crude also fundamental issues and tight supply with exceeding demand will boost the price charts always talk we always prefer 80% of technical
Friends our trade idea is based on very lower risk and big weekly rewards it's just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us
Stay Tuned for more updates
#CrudeOil #USOil Higher Time Frame #H4 Analysis #CrudeOil #USOil Higher Time Frame #H4 Analysis 🛢️📉
Currently, #USOil is under significant selling pressure, with prices likely heading towards the 65-63.50 zone. This area is critical, as it previously acted as a strong support during past crises, pushing prices higher. 🔄
🔹 Bullish Scenario: If prices tap into this zone and show a quick rejection, we’ll look for confirmation to plan our buys. This area could once again trigger an upward bounce. 📈
🔻 Bearish Scenario: However, if the 63.50 level fails to hold and we see a fully bearish #H4 candle close below it, we’ll prepare for a significant correction. A breakdown could open doors for a massive drop, potentially driving prices down to the 55-56 range. 💥
Stay sharp and ready to react based on price action around this crucial zone! ⚠️
USOILForex trading involves higher leverage (up to 50:1) and 24/5 market access, focusing on currency pair movements affected by economic data, interest rates, and geopolitical events - the key risk is that high leverage can quickly amplify losses, plus overnight positions face swap fees and gap risks during major news. Stock trading typically offers lower leverage (2:1 to 4:1), operates during exchange hours, and focuses on company fundamentals, earnings, and broader market sentiment - main risks include earnings surprises, market volatility, and lower liquidity in individual stocks compared to major forex pairs, while key advantages include better transparency through public financial reports and generally lower spreads than exotic forex pairs.
Oil Markets Into Monday This Week (18th Nov)Oil has continued to be subdued post election, with no real demand feeding into it.
Price action consists of strong momentum south side into key area(s) seen previously for longs.
For that reason, I hold a long bias, but only lightly as we are rushing back to lows (no clear strength/investor willingness) and current price action represents the same story (higher chance of low break).
NOT breakout shorting. Just awaiting further longs lower (DCA).
USOIL FORECAST Q4 FY24 - FY25monthly timeframe just to show em we the big dogs
The last post was short lived lasted a month then went to the bears
in this analysis i see price going up higher for longer in the long run as i anticipate
some serious global tensions to follow through, wont speculate on conspiracies only prices
that said price didnt break our level yet again and from 12/22 to now price was in an accumulation distribution range as the big money slowly but sure buy up more inventory
hidden in plain sight
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Trade opportunity in Crude on 18th November 2024This is an intraday trading opportunity in WTI Crude based on the Support and Resistance levels. The time frame used is 15 minutes and both the Upper and Lower targets are clearly marked once the resistance / Support levels are broken on a 15 minute time frame candles.
www.tradingview.com
Always keep a comfortable Stoploss and use the trailing stoploss method to de-risk your trade
CRUDE OIL TIME TO BUIY|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 65.50$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 67.69$
LONG🚀
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US Oil Finds Support: Bullish Divergence in PlayUS oil prices are currently finding strong support and forming a bullish divergence. This technical pattern suggests a potential upward movement.
USOIL: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USOIL pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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