Aus200 for shortThis one of the index I've been watching and it's looking good for next week I'll be waiting on weekly candlestick to close.
AUS trade ideas
Choppy and SidewaysThis market has turned to chop in recent sessions.
As the attached daily chart shows; the bulls and bears have no clue who is in control.
Price makes a move higher, only to be crunched back lower in the next session.
This is a market (and similar looking markets) I am avoiding until we get a clearer price action picture and when there is far less risk of being whipsawed out of any trade position.
Until then, if we are looking to trade in these sorts of markets we run the very high risk of getting whipped out even if we pick the correct direction.
ASX200 weakness is squeezing on bulls but will we see a selloffThe ASX200 has rolled over since the last alert and holding lower highs. Price is at an important crossroads now as it holds above 5970 and below 6010. A break up through 6010 will get the bulls excited and lead to a push up to 6200. A hold below 5925 and move down through 5970 will trigger further selling and pressure lower as buyers are forced to close out. We favour the sell side so will be watching for an entry of further weakness but either way, the next few days will be important.
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Australia 200 Index - Convergence sell trade using price actionTaking a look at the Australian 200 Index, we have seen a good potential short term trading opportunity for a Sell.
As you can see from the 15 Minute chart we were watching to see what price did if it reached the 6000.0 level as this could potentially show a rejection here because its a psychological level in general.
This alone is not going to present a high probability trading opportunity so we look to the price action and the structure of the movement getting there that can help give us a clue.
Price was in an ascending channel on the way up which then turned into a more tighter ascending channel inside the larger one. This structure in price showed 3 hits on both of the channels topsides (marked with blue and pink arrows) creating two bearish 3 drive patterns in the process. What increases the probability here is that both of these patterns also converged and lined up with the 6000.0 level.
Once we saw price start to show signs of weakness and move lower we just had to be patient and use the lower inner trend line of the smaller channel as our trigger for the short trade if this trend line gets broken to the downside which occurred nicely.
For trade management we want to place a stop just above the 6000.0 level and the highest high and live with the result while taking profits along the way as price keeps going lower.
AU200 Short(Divergence) and Long (Inverted H & S) SetupOkay so I have been monitoring the indices for some days now and I don't know why I was not trading them. Maybe because it was too expensive
The price action on most of them are so much easier than the currencies and the direction on most of them are very similar.
So how do we take advantage of this trade?
First the short. On the right hand side is the 4hr chart and we have almost a perfect divergence and confirmation is exactly where the price is.
So I am taking the short as soon as the exchange opens. Hopefully without gaps.
Now when you look on the left which is the daily, we can see an inverted head and shoulders set up confirming our 4hr divergence short to test the new higher low.
It has been a while seeing such a perfect setup. Definitely not missing this one. I will update chart once I take the trade
If you agree, please give this a thumbs up and if not, please comment and let me know your thoughts.
Good luck and thanks for stopping by.
AUS200This monthly chart doesn't look good for the Australian index. I am pretty bearish about it for the next couple of months.
POTENTIAL EXPLOIT: Aussies in trouble.The 4H position on the AUS200, could be an advantagious exploit for a controlled affordable loss.
1 - The Aussies tend to follow the DJI and USTech 100.
2 - But there is usually a time lag of between 30 mins and 2 hours.
3 - The DJI did a major leg down but the Aussies barley flinched after a major bull run yesterday.
I've seen it many times, where they catch up after that delay. Then they panic.
As the DJI could be moving south from the base of a head and shoulders pattern (see my posts), then if the Aussies follow south and panic - it could be a nice exploit. Remember your risk controls please.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
XJO - ASX200 a drop bears dream.XJO - ASX200 a drop bears dream.
Crikey!
A long term take on the Index down under.
Undeniably having been in a multi decade bull market, technically, future times appear tougher.
Divergence in the overbought area of the wave oscillator, coupled with an ominous Doom spike back at the GFC March lows of 2009.
The father of finance, Fibonacci, projects a downside golden ratio target of 2016.
Conclusion - If you're long on Aussie stocks, ya stuffed mate! OI.
ASX200 Sighting June Lows – 5800Hello Fellow Trader!
The US500 and Nasdaq continued their falls and finishing in the red on Friday. The ASX200 also had two consecutive lower low days breaking slicing below 6000 to finish the week also in the red.
We could see slight recovery back into the 6000 which is key for the advance, or rejection indicating falls the ASX200 has not seen since June.
Key Points:
- Price holding below the 200 EMA
- Price holding below the 50 EMA
- Fibonacci 50% support cluster with target 1 (April Low – June High)
- Price holding above the 50 EMA
- RSI could break trend and range simultaneously for momentum
Key Levels:
Support – 5800, 5700, 5610
Resistance – 200 EMA, 50 EMA, 6000
Entry Zone:
Optimal entry provides the greatest reward to risk ratio while supporting entry is a zone for reversal signals.
Optimal Entry – 5925
Supporting Entry – 5890
Candle Reversals for entry
- Bearish Shooting Star
- Bearish Engulfing
- Bearish Dark Cloud Cover
The Risk:
As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios.
If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital.
IF: Price breaks above level 6000 and violates 200 EMA– this would suggest the structure is not in our favour and would be wise to reduce exposure or close the trade until a solid signal gives us reasons to re-enter.
Reward / Reward Targets:
Optimal Entry 5925 – Target 1 5700 = 3x Reward to Risk
Optimal Entry 5925 – Target 2 5610 = 4x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 5890– Target 1 5700 = 1.5x Reward to Risk
Supporting Entry 5890 – Target 2 5610 = 2.2x Reward to Risk
NOT OVER YET, ONE MORE DAY TO GO & PROTECT 5836 $XJO On 26 August 2020,
$XJO was at 6161 and I said we will pull back to the moving averages and a big breakout will come...
The 2 day chart have shown us we have broke down to the down side.
This week, I said we need to close above 5836 on the weekly to stay bullish.
We did that.
However, it is not over yet.
The 2 day candlesticks DID NOT CLOSE this week , it will close next Monday and start a new candlestick on Tuesday 22/09/2020.
Furthermore, we have closed below all three moving averages 20,50,200 and from the past more downside will come in the coming days/weeks.
Therefore,
Monday will be a very important trading day,
Long - Close above 5919
Short - Close below 5836
If close below 5836, the 0.50 Fibonacci Retracement level is my next support....
Set up for my first short position using indictors Using this script indictors in this oder to establish my first short position. Let me know your thoughts.
UHLMA100 gives a larger bear market indication
TDF MA sows first sign on short term trend change below its zero line.
ASO 10 0 shows the sentiment reading
UHLMA26 shows the shorter term trend crossing over into negative territory (white crosses below yellow line)
Buysellsignal 20 works similar to a TD sequential to help with enter exits
All public library scripts show be visible to see
Long Term TrendA country sleepwalking into desolation. ----Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.-----
The ASX200 may be setting to head down the slippery slope lowerThe ASX200 is hovering at a key level at 5850, that if broken, will trigger some bears into action. Recent pressure from sellers has picked up off the 6200 area and the uptrend from march has been broken. Many feel that a selloff and reset is on the cards and warranted so it may soon come true.
-------------------------------------------------------------
WE TRADE WHAT WE TEACH
Check out our recent Live Streams from our profile page!!
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** If you enjoy our free content, please support and follow our profile, by hitting the Follow button to get further high quality ideas. **
** If you are following our ideas any comments and likes are most welcome and will be greatly appreciated **
** With quality alerts and correct Risk Management, you can learn consistency and grow your account **
** With quality portfolio management and defined risk levels to help your account grow and achieve steady profit targets while increasing your trading edge. **
XJO Re-tested long term trend We've seen price action since the March drop push us back into the channel, it would be nice to see a bounce from the 1M trendline thats provided TL support since '09.
Maybe a bounce from here will get us through the 6200 resistance thats been on our plate since June.
Let's see what happens.
