AUS200Looks to be running out of steam and also approaching the same levels from March 12 where the largest amount of selling entered the market this year.
AUS trade ideas
XJO - Monthly Candle - ABC Elliott Wave Correction Taking Place?XJO - We have what looks like a classic elliott wave correction taking place. At this point in time an XJO Elliott wave ABC correction is a higher probability than a V shape recovery. Will this play out, I have no idea.
context on asx 2004 years of gains wiped in a short span, and now the market is off the lows and fresh into new technical bull market.
So for context, we went into a bear market in like 2 weeks, then within another 2 weeks, its ended and back into green shoots.
This does not sit well with me, as the broader market isnt a basket of commodities, but it certainly behaved like it due to the volatility, which historically is still elevated over different time duration's.
I suspect another lower high, then a slow, painful, grinding deleveraging.
S&P500, Tsx, Asx, FTSE etc have all gone along the same path together in this globalised world, now with debts (personal and corp) at all time highs, rates at all time lows, unemployment at all time (ever in m/m, y/y % terms and total numbers)
this rebound FROM ATH's would be best treated with caution and a healthy level of skeptisim that really wasnt present during its bull run.
ASX200 Macro Structure - Will It Hold?On a macro scale we can see we're under a macro trendline which has been unbroken since 2009 + 2 weekly 200MA and a major weekly pivot point. otherwise, we're still trading in an ascending wedge (bearish pattern) and we'll just have to wait for some proper bearish confirmation of a break to the downside. This would yield at least a retest of the lows. the other scenario is a break above where i can potentially see us reaching right back up to the highs over the next 2-3 months.
AUS200, A day with no stimulus package from the government.For the last 5 trading days, every time the government announces some type of stimulus package to the country, I can see the market surging between 1.5 and 3 percent.
What will happen if we have 5 days with no economic stimulus? are we going to retest the lows of 4775,4400 or a new bottom 3xxxxx?
I have added a Fibonacci from the low of 4374 to the highest of this week 5429.
I still stand to get in LONG if the market can break the 5429 support with TP at 5590 and SL at 5050, and/or SHORT if the market goes below 5035 with SL at 5200 and TP at 4775.
Bounce back to 5660 aroundNot reverse, but just bounce back, waiting for good timing to close long and open short
Beautiful Bear FlagA beautiful bear flag is forming. There is potential for a bit more upside over the coming week to about 5600 before we break the flag and start towards our target of 2350; a level not seen since 1996. Clearly way over bought on the daily and the super guppy has gone red.
Long on AUXAUD200 on the 4 hour chartI see a potential long term target of 5600 on the AUXAUD200 on the 4 hour chart.
Its broken the resistance at 5340 and above the 26 EMA which confirms the long trend.
Target: 5600 SL 5335
ASX200 keeps rocking the cityXJO aka ASX200 keeps going high but what will be the potential targets before a pull-back? Can we expect a straight V-shape recovery with no looking back? Lets dive into the TA and analyze.
It seems ASX200 bounce from the 200Monthly MA last month has triggered a market recovery chain of events. But can we trust that? To me the real recovery would be confirmed if we close a weekly candle above 5800. Bulls can be happy that 0.382 fib milestone is reached, we have the price above LSMA line, the velocity is looking upwards
, but from the market structure point of view 5.8k needs to be taken, then 50MA and finally 0.618fib.
Keep an eye on this chart as a guide to whether you can invest in individual stocks. I will update you if anything changes.
Be safe.
XTF
Crash Continuation or Restoration?Over the last week or so we've seen all major indices rallying like crazy despite all the negative news and ongoing issues with covid-19. However, I think that the rally may be coming to a close shortly. As of today It's currently Easter Monday in Australia so the markets are closed. In this chart we can see:
- Potential bearish pennant coming to the apex
- convergence of price and H1 + H4 EMAs-
- Nearing closer to the Fibonacci Golden pocket which held us down recently.
What I am looking for in terms of entries:
I'm personally keeping an eye on the Golden Pocket for any chance of a rejection. Should we happen to get rejected again then we would be putting in a double top, (Bearish reversal pattern).
Important note:
BE CAREFUL. No matter how much TA or fundamental analysis you can bring to the table, we are in a completely different market situation where in a moments notice all that research could be thrown out the window. Any traditional fundamental trader can tell you that 16 MILLION jobless claims in the US alone is no reason for the markets to have one of the best weekly runs in history, so take all of this with a grain of salt and remember risk management is key. At the end of the day, you are NOT A TRADER, you are a RISK MANAGER, remember that if you want to remain profitable.
Let me know what you guys think and if you enjoyed then please consider liking and following, thanks!
OZ CENTRAL BANK ENGINEERS STUPIDEST RALLY I HAVE EVER SEEN! !! DEAD CAT BOUNCE NO. 1 ;
CREATED WHOLLY AND SOLELY BY OUR RESERVE BANK'S MORONIC QE free helicopter money for the Markets and consequently bolstering asset prices. I saf FK it, let it Rip. Let the Market decide how healthy it is on its OWN without massive interference WITH THE RBA as a MASSIVE MARKET WIDE Buyer.
... TBH the KILLJOYS have taken ALL THE FUN out of it! They have set effectively a floor under ANY downside moves...so Pitting your Bear Wits against those of the Bulls....well, down thew Memory Hole until they stop buying which they claim to be "open ended" ..?
WTFKNGF? !!!!
Surely the RBA know that unbridled Printing causes far more SERIOUS EXISTENTIAL PROBLEMS in the Real Economy than if poor, inflated, debt funded Asset prices of the upper income bracket percentile were to find the correct
unadulterated natural Equilibrium. No we couldn't possibly ALLOW THAT to happen !
FRRRROOT!!! THIS POLICY will bring about the end of the current World Financial Regime altogether...like I've consistently said ;
this IS the BIG ONE for Our Age.
How very exciting Life, All of a sudden, has become!
My Positions have not changed
Long Physical Au , long COVID DRIVEN DEMAND SPECCYS
SHORT XJO via Puts once this Dead Car is over. I predict Mkt on Wednesday I'll be slamming so more on early in the Session - fairly tight maybe a longer expiry this time...Strikes maybe 5200-4900??? Thoughts opinions, drivel...all welcome.
Happy Easter ALL and God Bless.
Always DYOR.
XJO "Dead Cat Bounce"outlined are major S/R levels, I am looking for a "dead cat bounce play if the down side momentum can reverse from this level over the next few weeks.
I would like to see either two scenarios play out rejection at 5980 or consolidation above 5980. Currently looking for longs if we can find a trend to the upside as a relief rally, entering short from this level is high risk as we may see a short squeeze if we do get a relief rally to R1.
ASX 200 leading diagonal for first corrective waveASX 200 looks to have put in a leading diagonal for the A wave. Looking for the B wave to retrace to the 0.618 fib (~$4800) where I'll open up new longs for the C wave. GL if you follow! :)
