ASX macro analysis"ASX 200 Analysis and Outlook
We hold the view that the ASX 200 has been in a bull market since October 2022. Currently, we find ourselves in an accumulation phase, although we remain cautious and withhold confirmation of higher prices until we witness a decisive break above the 7313 price level.
Key Observations:
1. **Optimism Amidst Recent Close**: While last week's closing performance was not the most favorable, there are discernible signs of optimism. The ASX 200 (XJO) managed to close above a robust support level, sparking optimism that the upcoming week may usher in a gradual move to higher levels.
2. **Moving Averages Analysis**: In the previous week, we observed a breakdown below the MA 20 and MA 50, with the index managing to cling to the MA 100 level by a slim margin. A bullish reclaiming of these moving averages could pave the way for a favorable macro outlook. Our belief is that we could potentially reach new all-time highs (ATH) before the year's end. It's noteworthy that the current channel top has already rejected price on three occasions, and the fourth attempt could prove to be the breakthrough.
3. **Key Price Level at 7220**: Should the index close above the 7220 mark, this could establish a highly bullish outlook in the near term.
4. **RSI Insights**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been displaying higher lows, and we do not anticipate a change in this trend at this juncture.
Summary:
In summary, our analysis indicates that the ASX 200 is undergoing an accumulation phase within an overarching bull market that commenced in October 2022. While we exercise caution and await a decisive move above 7313 to confirm higher prices, recent performance suggests a positive tone. Reclaiming the crucial moving averages and closing above the 7220 level could set the stage for a robust bullish outlook. We maintain optimism about the potential for the ASX 200 to reach new all-time highs before the conclusion of this year. It's important to stay vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions."
Please note that market dynamics can change, so it's advisable to stay updated with the latest developments and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
