18.08.24Price earlier this week hace been very bullish especially after Wednesdays CPI data release indicating there signs of stability in the economy which my increase the chances of a rate cut in September. Wednesday Fed Chair Jerome will give a clear statment of what may happen with interest rates and there will also be PMI and inital jobless claim data on Thursday.
US30: After price took Mondays lows on Tuesday, US30 has not returned to that spot. WIth the current state of price action, I see price aiming towards 41414.72
GER40: Price on the DAX hasnt returned back down after rebounding off a 4h order block on Tuesday aswell and seems to be reaching 18916.9
GDAXI trade ideas
DE40 - Daily TF - LONG Buy Trade CallOn daily TF, as analyzed earlier, DE40 after following the Bullish Reversal Crab Pattern perfectly went into the reversal. All those who were not aware that this pattern is an indication of bullish reversal from point D's close by zone, and missed out getting into LONG trade, may still are with the chance of gaining in next three to five days.
Here are the trade values.
LONG Trade Call
Entry: Instant Buy : 18270 OR
Buy Limit Order : 18250
S/L : 18000
TP1: 18540 (after hitting TP1, for 2nd trade : move SL to breakeven)
TP2: 18810
Will the German stock market return to the ceiling of its currenThe DAX index can continue to climb up to the range of 18514 and in case of strength up to the range of 18594. Otherwise, after breaking the range of 18255, we can expect this index to drop to the range of 18127 and in case of strength, to 17968.
Downward Pressure on the European Automotive Sector• European Stock Exchange: EuroStoxx50 is up 0.4% at the open, and is considered to have failed to reach its optimal buy point of 4,400 points. Meanwhile, the IBEX35 has stagnated at 0.1%. European indices as a whole have advanced +2.5% since Monday.
• Debt market: The US 10-year bond is at 3.9% and the German 10-year bond is above 2.25%, while Spanish bonds are at 3.08%.
• Carry Trade: T raders have returned to the carry trade with the Japanese yen and the Bank of Japan's policies could influence the profitability of these operations.
• European Automotive Industry: T he transition to electric vehicles and the entire GreenDeal faces several challenges in the sector related to high cost and lack of local infrastructure. The EV market share has contracted from 16% in 2015 to 13% in 2023, so it looks like a clear demand reduction trend. Additionally we can count on supply problems and competition with Chinese manufacturers are affecting European production. This is being reflected in the Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts, which has fallen by 6% so far this year. In contrast, luxury brands such as Ferrari have increased their shares by 25%.
• Automobile Company Indices: European leaders in the sector are in EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts.
- Ferrari (RACE): S&P 500, FTSE MIB.
- Renault (RNO) and Stellantis (STLA): CAC 40.
- BMW (BMW) and Mercedes-Benz (MBG): DAX.
• Outlook: The recovery of the European automotive industry could take a decade due to the current pressure, with factors complicating its recovery to pre-crisis levels.
Looking at the DAX chart, it has currently recovered almost +8% since August 5. This tells us that the Fed's policies are reflecting their effects on all European indices to a greater or lesser extent. But do not discount the risk of major automotive and industrial companies being affected by the commodity and technology wars with the East. At the moment, the index's support zone is at 17,419 points, with the current high at 18,913 points. At the moment the strongest trading zone is 18,479 points, slightly above the trading zone. RSI is slightly above the middle zone so it could be representing an increase of long positions in the index. If the index exceeds the 18,479 checkpoint zone, we will see a new attempt to pierce prices in the highs zone.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
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Key Levels Crucial for GER30 Bullish TrendHello Everyone,
The GER30 index is experiencing a steady rise and is expected to maintain its bullish trend, provided that the 1-year strong resistance point at 18,527.129 can act as a support level in the future. A key indicator to watch is the 1-month pivot point (PP) acting as support, rather than resistance as it has been. This situation is prompting sellers to enter the market despite the solid bullish trajectory.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
$DAX Buys in the making!Buys from H1 FVG
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1. Yesterday's High overlaps with FVG
2. FVA of BOS lies within the same area
3. perfect OLOD ie FVG + FVA fill
4. H4 FVG
5. low of Asian session coincides with FVA on 15 min + MSS
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FVA fair value Area
OLOD- overlapping Line of defense.
Does the DAX index cross its important resistance?According to the resistance in the range of 17944 After the failure of this zone, we can expect the price to rise to the range of 18122 and in case of strength, the range of 18272 Otherwise, after breaking the range of 17768, we can expect the price to drop to the range of 17576.
Could GER40 reverse from hereDAX40 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 17,957.60
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 18,221.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 17,659.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
NOTE: These charts use the ‘Pro Trading Tools’ available on the SpreadEx trading platform. To use them, log in to your SpreadEx Financials Account and click ‘Technical’ from the menu on any chart.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP over 50 periods
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level (above or below)
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
Germany 40 has entered a bearish trend and is currently in an impulsive phase, with the price dropping to 17,726, slightly below the VWAP of 17,988. The support level has been lowered to 17,131, while resistance has adjusted upward to 18,845. The RSI has risen to 41, indicating a moderate bearish momentum compared to the previous analysis.
UK 100 remains in a bearish trend, continuing in its impulsive phase, with the price now at 8,202, slightly above the VWAP of 8,179. The support level is set at 7,999, and resistance has moved up to 8,360. The RSI has stabilised at 50, reflecting a neutral momentum.
Wall Street continues to show a bullish trend but has entered a corrective phase, with the price declining to 39,532, just below the VWAP of 39,930. This correction may soon transition into a bearish trend if the downward movement continues. The support level is now at 38,636, while resistance has increased to 41,223. The RSI has dropped to 46, signalling a shift towards bearish momentum.
Brent Crude has moved into a bearish trend and is currently in a corrective phase, with the price slightly increasing to 79.94, now just above the VWAP of 79.40. Support has been adjusted downward to 75.95, while resistance has climbed to 82.84. The RSI is at 48, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish pressures.
Gold is showing a neutral trend and is in a consolidation phase, with the price increasing to 2,442, above the VWAP of 2,410. Support has been lowered to 2,361, while resistance has risen to 2,460. The RSI stands at 58, suggesting the momentum is slightly leaning towards the bullish side.
EUR/USD continues in a bullish trend and remains in an impulsive phase, with the price rising to 1.0927, just above the VWAP of 1.0879. Support has adjusted to 1.0785, while resistance has been slightly increased to 1.0974. The RSI has reached 59, indicating continued strong bullish momentum.
GBP/USD has shifted to a bearish trend and is now in an impulsive phase, with the price decreasing to 1.2763, below the VWAP of 1.2818. Support is now higher at 1.2666, and resistance has been adjusted downward to 1.2971. The RSI has decreased to 45, reflecting weakening bullish momentum.
USD/JPY is in a bearish trend, continuing in an impulsive phase, with the price falling significantly to 147.49, now below the VWAP of 150.63. Support has been adjusted upward to 142.14, while resistance has increased to 159.11. The RSI has dropped sharply to 32, indicating a strong bearish momentum.
#GER30 bearish continuation moveAfter an impulsive bearish move in the GER30 last week, the price is now forming a bullish corrective move and a rising wedge pattern, which typically has a bearish bias.
Additionally, the price has reached the 1-hour 200 EMA, which could act as dynamic resistance. There's also a bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator on this timeframe.
These factors together suggest a bearish outlook.