Nasdaq Long-Term Elliott Wave AnalysisNasdaq Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis
Hello, this time I’m looking at the long-term Elliott Wave for the Nasdaq.
On the weekly candle chart, it seems like the long-term Impulse 5 wave, which started in 2003, is coming to an end. Even when breaking it down into yellow sub-waves, everything aligns correctly, and all Elliott Wave rules are properly applied.
Beginners may not fully understand, but in Elliott Wave theory, Impulse 5 waves must also contain a 5-wave subdivision. Although I haven't marked all the counts to keep the chart clean, if you count them yourself, they should all be correct.
A strong piece of evidence supporting this view is that wave 4 of the blue wave 5 retraced to around the 0.382 level. The yellow wave 4 also retraced to around 0.382, which further confirms this analysis.
The issue here is that if this assumption is correct and wave 5 of the Elliott Wave has completed, then the Nasdaq could potentially drop to around 14,000. There is a possibility of it following a green ABC correction.
For this green ABC correction to be valid, it must be larger in both size and duration than wave 4 of the blue wave, because this correction belongs to a higher-degree wave. Based on this calculation, the decline could last until at least 2028. If we’re lucky, the green wave B retracement might push higher and form a flat correction, ideally ending at the 16,000 resistance level.
From a fundamental perspective, Trump continues to talk about tariffs, which is not a positive factor for the market.
However, if we consider the red circle as wave 1, then the green correction might end at the 0.382 (14,000) retracement level, and another 5-wave rally could follow. If that happens, good times will return.
For some hope, we could also consider that the blue wave 5 has not yet finished, and there might be another push higher, as indicated by the orange wave 5 scenario. To confirm this, we should monitor the price action around the 18,000 level—if a 5-wave upward structure appears, then an extended rally might still be possible.
If 18,000 is broken easily, then there is little hope left. Given the current global situation, the only bullish scenario would be Trump partially rolling back his tariff policies.
It might not be the best news, but as traders, whether we go short or take other strategies, the goal is to make money—so there's no need to worry too much.
May luck be on your side!
