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NDX trade ideas

US 100 – What Next For Tech Stocks After The Capitulation?As an uneasy calm settles across the financial markets after yesterday’s 3.2% fall in the US 100, which brings the total slump from the all time highs of 22226 seen on February 18th to 12.5%, this can often be an ideal time to reassess the key chart levels and technical trends for the index going into the NY open later today, but more importantly so you are prepared to react to the outcome of the next potential volatility event on the horizon, which may well be tomorrow’s US CPI release at 1230 GMT. With traders and investors dumping US assets across the board in the last week as fears grow about the negative impact of President Trump’s tariffs and spending cuts on the US economy, positioning, in the short term at least, may be cleaner than it has been for a while going into this data release. Meaning there could be some potential to see an outsized reaction to a lower-than-expected inflation reading, or, if the number is higher than expected a continuance of the recent sell off in the US 100 to even lower levels. So, with that in mind, let’s reassess the technical outlook. Technical Trends: US 100 Since the all-time high of 22226 for the US 100 Index was seen on February 18th, there has been an inability to sustain further upward momentum, and a clear rejection of the advance has emerged. This has resulted in what some might describe as a bearish capitulation, as an acceleration lower has materialised over the last few trading sessions. So, where does this leave US equities and particularly the US 100 index, ahead of what is set to be another potential volatility storm in the sessions ahead? Technical Setup: The almost uninterrupted phase of price weakness since the mid-February all-time highs has been a move that has seen some important support levels breached. This includes the 20477 correction low posted on January 13th and also the 19904 low, which was the November 4th downside extreme. (see chart above). However, interestingly, initial declines this morning (Tuesday 11th March) have tested what might prove to be an important support at 19142. This level is equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August 5th 2024 to February 18th 2025 strength, so, traders may well be focusing on this price level as being a potential pivotal area for any move that comes next. Potential Upside Focus If the Support Holds While the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement isn’t a guaranteed support, it has held current declines, so far at least, and at present prices are attempting to recover. With this in mind, it is important to be prepared and have an idea of some potential resistance levels to focus on. Areas that if broken in a move higher, may lead to the possibility of a more sustained period of price strength. The first resistance to monitor could possibly be 19623, which is equal to half this week’s current range. Breaks above this level might open the potential for moves back to what could be a stronger resistance level for traders at 20306, which is the 38.2% retracement of February/March declines. Potential Downside Focus If the Support Is Broken Just because the 19142 retracement support has held so far this morning, doesn’t mean it will continue to do so. It can be wise to be aware of the next support levels on the downside if fresh selling pressure materialises and a break below 19142 develops. Closing breaks below 19142 may suggest the current weakness can extend, with the focus then switching to potential support at 18297, which is the September 6th session low. If this were to give way on a closing basis, then the August 5th downside extreme at 17235, may come into play. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
NAS100USD Will Move Lower! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 45m Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 19,535.5. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 19,253.5 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
How to Backtest a Trading Strategy on TradingViewBacktesting is an essential part of developing a profitable trading strategy. It allows you to test how your system would have performed in past market conditions before risking real money. In this guide, I’ll walk you through the step-by-step process of backtesting using TradingView’s Bar Replay Tool and other key methods. By the end, you’ll be able to analyze and optimize your strategy for better results. 📌 Step 1: Open Your Chart & Select a Timeframe The first step in backtesting is choosing the right chart and timeframe based on your trading style: Scalping → 1-minute (M1) or 5-minute (M5) charts Day Trading → 15-minute (M15) or 1-hour (H1) charts Swing Trading → 4-hour (H4) or daily (D1) charts Select the asset you want to test (stocks, forex, crypto, indices, etc.) and ensure there’s enough historical data available. Enough available data in this chart: ⏳ Step 2: Activate the Bar Replay Tool TradingView’s Bar Replay Tool lets you scroll back in time and simulate live market conditions. Here’s how to use it: Click on the "Replay" button in the top toolbar. Select a point in the past where you want to begin your test. The chart will "rewind," hiding future price action. At this stage, you’re looking at the market as if it were happening in real-time. This prevents hindsight bias, which is when you unconsciously adjust decisions based on already knowing the outcome. Enable it here: Then choose a point on the chart: 📈 Step 3: Apply Your Trading Strategy Now, it’s time to apply your chosen strategy. This could be: Indicator-based strategies (e.g., EMA crossovers, MACD signals, RSI divergences). Price action trading (e.g., support/resistance levels, candlestick patterns, chart patterns). Algorithmic or rule-based trading (e.g., entry and exit conditions based on technical indicators). The strategies above are just some examples so make sure to use your own strategy. Make sure to document your trade setup, including: ✅ Entry conditions (What triggers a trade?) ✅ Stop-loss placement (Where do you exit if wrong?) ✅ Take-profit target (What is the goal?) ✅ Risk-to-reward ratio (Is it worth taking the trade?) Here is an example how to draw it out on your chart: ▶️ Step 4: Play the Market & Record Your Trades Now comes the real testing phase: Press "Play" or use the "Step Forward" button to move price action forward bar by bar. When a trade setup appears, log it in a trading journal or spreadsheet. Record: Entry price Stop-loss level Take-profit target Win/Loss outcome You can use a simple Google Sheet, Excel or Notion template to track results. The more data you collect, the better your analysis will be later. 📊 Step 5: Analyze Your Results & Optimize After backtesting at least 50-100 trades, it’s time to analyze the performance of your strategy. Here are some key metrics to review: Win Rate (%) → How many trades were profitable? Risk-to-Reward Ratio → Are your winners bigger than your losers? Drawdowns → What’s the worst losing streak your system encountered? Market Conditions → Did your strategy perform better in trends or ranging markets? 🚀 Final Thoughts Backtesting is a crucial step for any serious trader. It allows you to: ✅ Gain confidence in your strategy. ✅ Identify weaknesses and make adjustments. ✅ Avoid trading systems that don’t work before losing real money. However, keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. After backtesting, it’s best to forward-test your strategy in a demo account before using real capital. __________________________________________ Have you backtested your strategy before? What were your results? Let me know in the comments! 💬
FPMARKETS:US100Education
by TehThomas
25
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NDXGood Morning, Those of you following the market would have seen that something in the world was going to happen. Yep we have it....trade war. The market is a great predictor at investor confidence which typically means - what is going on in the world to affect their assets. Right now we have a leg down in the NDX also in SPX & other American/Markets. The uncertainty of the trade war is causing investors to 2nd guess where they are putting their money. Currently on this chart we are seeing a bottom start to form - You will never be able to call a bottom 100% but can get close. This would be a good spot to start accumulating stocks that are matching the trend patterns of the market. Be careful, if this is only a corrective action it would go down after its reached target, again a time to sell your stocks and wait to see where it drops. It could also reach target and consolidate which would be a great area to review trades and see what you want to keep and those you may want to sell for profits. Thanks and have a great day!
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by mindfullylost
18 Times, +2000%, 5800 Days - All About NASDAQ100 Corrections!Hi, all! I need to repost some of my recent ideas on TradingView due to issues with the platform's moderation. Let's start! The most up-to-date post is coming right away - one that serves as a timely reminder during these interesting times: never forget history. From November 2008 to February 2025, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index has grown by over 2000%! Yes, that’s a 20x increase! This tech giant, made up of the 100 leading technology stocks, has shown impressive strength. For comparison, the S&P 500 has risen about 820% in the same period. A great performance but Nasdaq 100 leaves it far behind. Has this been a straight-line rise? Not really. Looking back, it may seem like the perfect investment. But the road was not smooth. Nasdaq 100’s success came with painful drops, investor panic, and moments when it felt like the market would never recover. From the outside, everything looks great. But would you sit through a 30% drop, while the news is screaming about the "end of the world"? So, I decided to analyze every correction of 10% or more since the market bottom in 2008. - How long do corrections and recoveries last? - How often do they happen? - What should investors know? - Can this help you in any way? DATA ANALYSIS - 18 corrections in Nasdaq 100 (2008–2025), -10% or more. Retracement Stats: - Average drop: -15% - Median drop: -13% - Biggest drop: -37.72% - Smallest drop: -10% Correction Length (17 completed corrections): How many days does a correction last from the peak to the bottom? - Average: 60 days - Median: 35 days - Longest: 325 days - Shortest: 14 days Recovery Time: From bottom back to new highs. - Average: 165 days (~5.5 months) - Median: 119 days (~4 months) - Longest: 752 days (over 2 years) - Shortest: 42 days (~1.5 months) Correction Frequency If we take a rough estimate, in 5800 days, there were 18 corrections, which means a correction happens every 322 days (~10.5 months) on average. Total Time Spent in Corrections vs. Rising Markets - Corrections lasted 1016 days - Recoveries lasted 2801 days - Total time spent in "work mode": 3817 days - Total "smooth uptrend" days: 1983 days (~5.4 years) Basically, like a hardworking employee – the market spends more time struggling than rising! What Can Investors Learn from This? 1. Accept Volatility Knowing that market swings are normal, investors can keep a long-term perspective and avoid panic-selling during downturns. 2. Nasdaq 100 Has Always Recovered In the long run, Nasdaq 100 has always bounced back to new highs. Each recovery has been different, but so far, making new all-time highs has never been a problem. 3. Make Better Decisions Understanding psychological biases helps investors make rational choices and manage risks better. 4. Market Drops = Opportunities, Not Threats Most big market rallies started when most investors were too scared to buy. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett Market drops always feel unique and scary but history shows they follow repeating patterns. And those who keep their emotions in check have the best opportunities. "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." – Baron Rothschild Final Thoughts: Is the current retracement a buying opportunity? No one knows for sure but history suggests - stay calm! So, that's all. Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀 Have great day, Vaido 💬 Before you leave... What’s your take on the current Nasdaq 100 correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by VaidoVeek
Nasdaq 100 Enters CorrectionNasdaq 100 Enters Correction As shown on the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) index chart today: → The index has fallen below the psychological 20,000-point level, reaching its lowest in approximately six months. → The decline from the December peak now exceeds 10%, officially marking the start of a correction. Why the Nasdaq 100 Is Falling Today Bearish sentiment stems from a combination of factors, including (according to Zacks analysts): → The Trump administration’s tariff policies and their potential economic impact. Concerns increased after the latest jobs report showed unemployment rising from 4.0% to 4.1%. → Worries about AI investment costs and their long-term profitability. → Market anticipation of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 15:30 GMT+3. Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart Price movements indicate that the steeper growth channel (marked in black), which had been in place since last August, has lost relevance. A broader view of the chart reveals that the index has now approached the lower boundary of a long-term channel (marked in blue), which has been forming since early 2024. Key price formations that helped define this channel are highlighted in orange. Given that the index is at the lower boundary of the blue channel and the RSI indicator on the daily chart has dropped to multi-year lows, a short-term recovery may be likely. However, the fundamental backdrop will play a decisive role—clear signs of U.S. economic stability could support a rebound, while extreme fear (as reflected in CNN’s Fear & Greed Index) may continue to weigh on sentiment. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
Short-Term Opportunity in NAS100: Rebound in Play?Since reaching its all-time high (ATH) three weeks ago, NAS100 has dropped approximately 3,000 pips, hitting a low near the 19,000 zone yesterday. Currently, the CFD price is rebounding, and this recovery could extend into the New York trading session. Although my overall correction target remains around 18,000, I anticipate a short-term relief rally at this stage. From a short-term trading perspective, the 19,000 level could present a good entry opportunity. With a tight stop and a target slightly above 20,000, this setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Mihai_Iacob
5
Market Update: Mean Reversion in Play? It never ceases to amaze how, in times of uncertainty, markets tend to revert to their long-term moving averages. Right now, US stocks are taking a hit, pricing in an expected slowdown. 🔻 Nasdaq has broken key technical levels, closing below its 2023-2025 uptrend and 55-week MA (19,770). A weekly close below this will confirm further downside risk, with major support at 16,765 (2021 high). 🔻 S&P 500 is now below its 200-day MA for the first time since Nov 2023 and has also slipped through its 55-week MA (5,611). A weekly close below here could open the door to 4,818 (2021 high). 🔻 Bond Yields are under pressure as markets price in a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate cut in May. Key support to watch: 4.02% (2022-2025 support line). 💵 US Dollar is sliding, with EUR/USD now testing its 200-week MA at 1.0866. Potential consolidation here, but the big level to watch is 1.1145 (2008-2025 downtrend). ⚡ Bitcoin has sold off to its 200-day MA, with a negative bias persisting below 93,000. Our downside target remains 72-72k. 🚨 All eyes on weekly closes for confirmation! 🚨 Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NASDAQ:NDX
by The_STA
NAS 100 Overextended – Brace for a Pullback! The NAS 100 is looking highly overextended at the moment 📊. Market conditions are precarious, with many instruments trading into key support and resistance levels on both the daily and weekly timeframes ⏳. A sharp pullback 📉 could be on the horizon, potentially offering a counter-trend buying opportunity on the lower timeframes for the US 100 💰. If it pushes higher, it may set up a potential short trade 🎯. 🚨 Not financial advice – trade wisely and manage your risk! ⚖️
CAPITALCOM:US100
by fxtraderanthony
US 100 AKA NASDAQ 11 MARCH TRADE IDEAThe NASDAQ 100 (US100) is currently experiencing a pullback after reaching resistance near 22,198 - 22,138, marking a rejection from the upper boundary of its ascending channel. The price has broken below the midline of the channel, suggesting a potential move towards lower support levels. The key downside target in this correction is the 20,758 level, which serves as an initial support area. If this level fails to hold, we could see a further decline towards 18,155 - 17,699, where a stronger demand zone exists. A breakdown below this range would shift the broader bullish outlook and expose the 16,941 level as the next critical support. Fundamental Analysis: The NASDAQ 100, being tech-heavy, is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and overall economic sentiment. Federal Reserve policy decisions, inflation data, and corporate earnings reports from major tech firms will significantly impact its trajectory. If the Fed signals rate cuts or easing monetary policy, it could support a bullish rebound. However, persistent inflation or higher-for-longer rates could lead to further downside pressure. The ongoing AI and semiconductor boom may provide sector-specific support, but broader market conditions and global macroeconomic risks, including U.S.-China tensions and recession fears, could introduce volatility. Conclusion: Technically, NASDAQ 100 is in a corrective phase, with potential downside targets at 20,758 and 18,155 - 17,699. If support holds, the long-term uptrend remains intact, presenting potential long opportunities. However, a break below 16,941 would shift the outlook bearish, opening the door for deeper retracements. Traders should monitor economic reports, interest rate updates, and earnings releases for further confirmation of market direction. 🚀
SKILLING:US100Short
by karabompesi
NAS100 (US100) – Bearish Outlook | SMC & ICT AnalysisMarket Structure & Key Levels: Break of Structure (BOS D): The market confirmed a bearish shift with BOS, showing institutional selling pressure. 4HR Order Flow (OF): Price is tapping into the 4HR Order Block (Supply Zone), a high-probability rejection area. Liquidity Grab & Distribution: The market may grab buy-side liquidity before continuing lower. Trade Idea & Bias: 🔻 Short-Term Bearish: Expecting a reaction from the 4HR Order Block, leading to another drop. 🔻 Liquidity Grab & Rejection: Price could sweep weak highs, mitigate the supply zone, and then sell off aggressively. 🔻 Final Target: Price may target IDM Daily & 4HR OF Demand Zone, where buy-side interest could return. Confluences: ✅ SMC & ICT Methodology: Liquidity grab + Order Block rejection. ✅ Premium vs. Discount: Market is in a premium zone, making it an ideal area for smart money to sell. ✅ Institutional Order Flow: Market makers may push price lower after mitigating the supply zone. Final Thoughts: I will look for short positions after price taps the 4HR supply zone and rejects. If rejection confirms, the next bearish target will be at the demand zone below. 🚨 📉 Bearish until confirmation of bullish structure shift at lower levels. 🚨 Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your trading plan. #NAS100 #ICT #SMC #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #Forex #TradingView
FX:NAS100Long
by lasinsraj
NASDAQ below its 1W MA50 after 2 years. Doom or recovery ahead??Nasdaq (NDX) broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years (since week of March 13 2023). That is a strong long-term Support, in fact it is technically the first level to look for during cyclical bull trends. So how bad can a break and/or 1W candle closing below it? As you can see on this multi-year chart on the 1W time-frame, since the 2008 Housing Crisis, the index has had a number of breaks below its 1W MA50. With the exception of the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a cyclical Bear Market like 2008, all of those breaks were short-lived and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) almost instantly. In fact, the current technical pull-back resembles the June - August 2011 correction, which after breaking below the 1W MA50, it found support and rebounded on the 1W MA100 in 2 weeks. The rebound that followed rose by +38% in 7 months. If a similar development is followed, which is what we expect, we are looking at a potential end-of-year rally to 24900. This also took place on the 2019 rally. What makes this 17-year recurring pattern even more interesting is that technical pull-backs such as the current, tend to take place when the 1W RSI Channel Down, a technical Bearish Divergence) hits 40.00 and makes a Lower Low (green circles). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDX
by TradingShot
3
$NAS100 may settle around 17300 @ 0.382 Fib Retracement PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is already in the correction territory with down more than 10%. If this bear market holds grip, then we might get into the bear market territory with 20% or more correction. This might be coincidental. Let’s get to the numbers behind this reasoning. The lows on Aug 5th carry trade set back was 17300. The Trump 1.0 tariff also send the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 down by 23% before the market started a meaningful bounce. If we have a 23% drawdown from the top of PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 then we will be back @ 17300. If you plot the upward sloping Fib retracement levels on PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 which we discussed in this blog on 01 March when I sounded bearish predicting a 10% downturn in the near term. Link here. The 0.382 Fib retracement level in this long term upward sloping channel lies around 17300. Tell me coincidence but all these 3 indicators align at 17300. Will the PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 settle at 17300 before this bear market correction is done and dusted? No one knows. Buy PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 from here till 17300.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100
by RabishankarBiswal
NASDAQ 100 Elliott Wave Analysis – A High-Probability Setup in P📌 Is the NASDAQ 100 in a Bearish Impulse Wave? Based on Elliott Wave analysis, NASDAQ 100 appears to be in Wave 3 of an ongoing bearish impulse (Wave A or 1). This setup suggests that after the current downward move, we might see a corrective structure before another leg down. Key Insights: 🔹 Wave Structure: The first wave of this move was a leading diagonal, followed by a pullback. Now, we are likely in Wave 3, which could extend further before a corrective phase begins. 🔹 Retracement Zones: After Wave 3 completes, we expect a corrective structure (Wave 4), which typically retraces between 38.2% and 50% of Wave 3 before Wave 5 resumes. 🔹 Trading Strategy: The most favorable entry zone would be during Wave 5 of A (or 1), ideally in lower timeframes such as H1, H4, or even M15. Before entering a trade, we need to confirm a three-wave corrective structure—whether it forms a sideways correction or a complex zigzag. 📌 Critical Levels to Watch: A break into Wave 1 territory could invalidate the impulse structure and shift the outlook. If the corrective phase is shallow, a deeper drop may still be on the table. 🚀 Patience is key! Once the correction completes, the next move could offer a strong trading opportunity. #NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #StockMarket #TradingSetup #BearishImpulse 💬 What’s your take? Are we heading lower, or will the market surprise us?
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP