Nikkei short update: Short again for 3rd or C waveUpdated the wave counts for the down move and the subsequent move up. I believe we are going into a wave 3 (or C). So it is a good opportunity to short again.
NIKKEI trade ideas
Japan225 to find buyers at market price?NIK225 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
Short term bias is mildly bullish. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Weekly pivot is at 37485.
We look to Buy at 37485 (stop at 37131)
Our profit targets will be 38496 and 40675
Resistance: 38275 / 40675 / 42155
Support: 36790 / 35590 / 34390
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Nikkei 225 Short: Completed 5-waves with Ending DiagonalAs I mentioned in the recording, there are multiple completions of 5-waves with the last wave as an ending diagonal.
Good luck!
JP225USD ShortBOJ interest rates hikes,Stock Market reacts.
2Approaches: Both selling the highs.
Approch 1 is more aggressive,
Approach2 :More conservative, higher reward-risk-ratio,but the irsk is,if the market falls in profit target zone and continues downard.Then we would miss the entry.
I will chose approach1,if market temporarily at (stop.levels of other traders) I will cover instead exit.
The stop levels in the chart are my new re-entries.(covering)
A quick long on NikkeiWarning: This is a counter trend quick trade.
JPN is in a downtrend on Daily. H4 is flat.
After last night's sell off there will be some buyers in the market looking for a deal.
We are going long based on:
1) There is a crab pattern
2) RSI divergence on M15
3) Strong support at 37500 area
Stop loss is 200+ pips and target is 400.
NIKKEI INDEX BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅NIKKEI is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 38,400
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 37,530
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nikkei 225 (existing short): Adjust your stop lossThis is the video update that I promised in my previous video. I have mentioned that when prices is reaching the personal target, I will update again.
So for those of you who are still holding a short position, and you want to hold on and see if this is gonna be a big ride down, my suggestion is to adjust your stop loss and maybe reduce you position (i.e. take some profits first).
How you want to manage this trade will be based on your personality and trading style. Good luck!
Nikkei price action forming a top?JP225USD -24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a top.
The primary trend remains bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
We look to Sell at 38270 (stop at 38679)
Our profit targets will be 37247 and 36790
Resistance: 38275 / 40675 / 42155
Support: 36790 / 35590 / 34390
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
NIKKEI 225 UP WE GOHere is a technical analysis of NIKKEI225. I think price will retest the S/R zone, there is also a fair value gap to be filled.
Selling NIKKEI at 37500Happy new week everyone,
We are looking to sell NIKKEI at 37500 based on the action we see this morning.
1) It created a high last week at 37,622
2) There is lot of divergence on H1, M30, M15
3) There is a shark pattern which is not quite valid, but shows a good sign to sell.
This could be a big move downwards.
JP225JP225 is showing good bullish buildup. Price has submitted the breakout , if the price sustain this breakout then the bulls can target 38800 region
JPN225 Short 1. This trade is against the trend
2. There are multiple patterns on all timeframes
3. This trade is oversold on all timeframes
4. There is a triple bottom on M15 with divergence
5. 200 Pip stop loss
6. First target at M15 overbought since this is counter trend
NIKKEI WILL BE BREAKING OUT SHORTLYAfter consolidating in a bull flag for nearly a year now and is testing it's 20 SMA as support.
Bullis div on the monthly and oversold stochastic rsi. This is and ideal setup!
JP225 - The cleanest P.A Ive seen in a hot minuteAlright, lets get to the point here and break this down cause this is way to clean to be right..
Firstly we see a Strong Bullish market which tells me.. BUY
Secondly we have seen a strong 6H Demand zone get respected
Thirdly.. Sell side Liquidity Sweeps are clean, we see almost every liquidity point has been collected on the sell leaving lots and lots of Buy side resting
Fourth...ly lmfao, we have seen a Elliots wave pattern finish moving into a second wave starting with the 3rd Wave in our OTE zone
The trade idea will be looking to buy from this Demand and ill be looking to hold possibly long term here. For confirmation I would like to see the Resistance zone be used as a support level of which I will look to add additional positions there
Follow to stay Tuned!
Nikkei, Bearish MomentumNikkei seems to be resuming its Bearish Momentum.
Hope to see it push down to 35000... and then some...
Nikkei 225, LongForecast for the Japanese Index (Nikkei 225, Long):
Entry Price: 37400.0
Take Profit (TP): 38200.0 (8000 pips above the entry point)
Stop Loss (SL): 37000.0 (4000 pips below the entry point)
Rationale for the Forecast:
Current Context:
The index is near a support level, indicating a potential upward reversal.
The Take Profit level (38200.0) is close to a key resistance level, which could be reached with improved economic data or positive corporate reports.
The Stop Loss level (37000.0) is set below a key support level, minimizing risks in case of a downward breakout.
Fundamental Factors:
Japan: GDP growth and an improved business climate could support the index.
Global Factors: Decreasing inflation in the US and stabilization in commodity markets could positively impact Japanese stocks.
Technical Factors:
The level of 37400.0 is a support zone where a bounce upwards is possible.
The level of 38200.0 is a resistance zone where profit-taking could occur.
The level of 37000.0 is a zone below key support where the Stop Loss would be triggered.
Recommendations:
Target (Take Profit): 38200.0 (8000 pips profit).
Risk (Stop Loss): 37000.0 (4000 pips loss).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 (profit twice the risk).
Scenarios:
Optimistic Scenario:
The index reaches the 38200.0 level, and the position is closed with a profit.
This could happen if Japan's economic data improves or positive corporate reports are released.
Pessimistic Scenario:
The index breaks below the 37000.0 level, and the position is closed with a loss.
This could occur if Japan's economic data worsens or negative global events take place.
Conclusion:
The current trade has a favorable risk-reward ratio (1:2).
It is recommended to monitor Japan's economic data and global events, as they could impact the index's movement.
JPN225 D1 | Potential bearish reversalJPN225 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 37,727.50 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 38,550.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 35,170.92 which is a swing-low support.
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Nikkei Sell at 37200The Nikkei is still in a downtrend and we will take a sell position now.
1) There is a gartley pattern to sell
2) There is M15 RSI divergence and triple top
3) H4 and D1 are down.
The only danger is that there is a H4 double bottom with divergence, but it is not oversold.
Nikkei 225 Drops Below Key Levels – What’s Next? The Nikkei 225 has broken out of its previous range, and key levels suggest potential downside risk. With Japan raising interest rates and Trump commenting on the yen, market dynamics are shifting. Technical analysis indicates a possible move lower, targeting the September 6th low. Should traders expect further declines, or will the index recover alongside U.S. stocks? Share your thoughts below!
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NIKKEI - higher interest rate causing another crash ?This is a weekly chart of the NIKKEI 225.
The Japanese index has been trading in a channel which was confirmed last summer with the massive swing up and down due to the unexpected increase of the interest rate by the BOJ.
After that price continued above the midline and turned lower after the latest interest rate decision earlier this year.
Another meeting of the BOJ is scheduled for March 18th, but the next raise of the interest rate probably won't happen before later this year.
Just looking at this chart, the NIKKEI could be on its way to the lower trend line again and I am considering a buy in the 33-34k area.
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Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent / swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (38300) swing trade basis.
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The JP225 (Nikkei 225 Index) is trending downwards due to a combination of economic, market, and geopolitical factors that are creating a bearish environment for Japanese equities. Below is a detailed explanation of the key reasons behind this downward movement.
⭐⚡🌟Weak Corporate Earnings
Many companies within the Nikkei 225, such as major players in the technology and automotive sectors (e.g., Toyota and Sony), have reported disappointing earnings. Growth has slowed to just 2% year-over-year, far below the expected 5%. This weakness in corporate performance is reducing investor confidence and dragging the index lower.
⭐⚡🌟Rising Inflation and Slowing GDP Growth
Japan’s inflation rate has climbed to 2.5%, surpassing the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target. This higher inflation is eroding consumer purchasing power, which hurts domestic spending and, in turn, corporate profits. At the same time, Japan’s GDP growth has decelerated to just 0.8% in the latest quarter, signaling a sluggish economy. A slowing economy is a strong bearish signal for the stock market.
⭐⚡🌟Stronger Yen Hurting Exporters
The yen has strengthened to 142.00 against the U.S. dollar. Since the Nikkei 225 is heavily weighted toward export-driven companies, a stronger yen makes Japanese goods more expensive abroad, reducing competitiveness and cutting into profits. This currency movement is a significant factor pushing the index down.
⭐⚡🌟Global Economic Pressures
U.S. Monetary Policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, with interest rates steady at 3.5%, has strengthened the U.S. dollar. This makes Japanese exports less attractive and reduces the yen-denominated earnings of multinational firms in the Nikkei 225.
China’s Slowdown: China, a key trading partner for Japan, is experiencing economic contraction, with its PMI at 49.2. Weak demand from China is hurting Japanese exporters, adding further downward pressure on the index.
⭐⚡🌟Technical Weakness
The Nikkei 225 is trading below its 50-day simple moving average (36,800) and nearing its 200-day simple moving average (35,500). It’s also struggling to hold support at 36,500. These technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the potential for further declines if key support levels break.
⭐⚡🌟Negative Market Sentiment
Speculative Traders: Data shows speculative traders have cut their net long positions to 10,000 contracts from 20,000, signaling reduced bullishness. Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have increased net short positions to 30,000 contracts, indicating expectations of lower prices.
Retail Investors and Analysts: Retail investor bullishness has dropped to 40% from 60%, and major analysts (e.g., Nomura) have lowered their year-end targets for the Nikkei 225 to 36,000 from 38,000. This shift reflects growing pessimism.
⭐⚡🌟Geopolitical and Policy Risks
Regional Tensions: Recent missile tests by North Korea (March 5, 2025) have raised security concerns in the region, dampening investor sentiment in Japan.
Bank of Japan Policy: The BoJ has hinted at potential rate hikes in late 2025. Tighter monetary policy could increase borrowing costs and weigh on stock valuations, contributing to the bearish outlook.
⭐⚡🌟Global Risk-Off Sentiment
The S&P 500 has fallen to 5,800, reflecting a broader global shift away from risky assets. At the same time, gold prices have risen to $3,000, signaling increased demand for safe-haven assets. This risk-off mood is spilling over into the Japanese market, pushing the Nikkei 225 lower.
⭐⚡🌟Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
COT data provides insights into futures market positioning for the Nikkei 225.
Speculative Traders:
Net long positions stand at approximately 20,000 contracts, up from 15,000 the previous month. This increase in bullish bets reflects growing confidence among speculators—a strong bullish indicator.
Commercial Hedgers:
Net short positions are at around 25,000 contracts, consistent with typical hedging activity. This stability suggests hedgers see current levels as sustainable—neutral.
Open Interest:
Total contracts reach approximately 50,000, an 8% increase month-over-month. Rising participation indicates growing market momentum—bullish.
Summary: COT data strongly supports a bullish outlook. Speculative long positions and rising open interest signal upward momentum, while hedgers’ steady shorts indicate no imminent sell-off pressure.
⭐⚡🌟Future Trend Prediction
Price projections for the Nikkei 225 across different timeframes.
Short-Term:
Range: 36,800 - 37,500
A breakout above 37,000 toward 37,500 is plausible if trade talk momentum persists. A pullback to 36,800 could occur on profit-taking.
Medium-Term:
Range: 36,500 - 38,000
Breaking resistance at 37,500 could propel the index to 38,000, driven by BOJ policy and trade developments. A drop below 36,500 might test 36,000 if global risks escalate.
Long-Term:
Bullish Target: 39,000 - 40,000
Achievable if the BOJ maintains easing, the yen weakens further, and global growth accelerates—60% probability.
Bearish Target: 34,000 - 35,000
Possible if the BOJ tightens policy, the yen strengthens, or a global recession emerges—40% probability.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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jp225 buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
