Correction down for SPX500USD is almost finishedHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD dropped and slowly went up again.
I think next week we could see the finish of the complex correction down (wave 4) and the last leg up to finish wave 5.
Trade idea: Wait for the complex correction down to finish and after a change in orderflow to bullish and a correction down on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
SPX trade ideas
Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get.
The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now):
That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only.
What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern.
** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle **
Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle **
The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200.
** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle **
With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended.
Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous).
That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032!
** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels **
What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis.
As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis.
** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? **
It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc).
It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond.
** Conclusion **
In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics.
So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time?
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5915 (Wave 5).Dear colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the end of the movement in wave “5” is ahead.
At the moment I see the support area of 5800, from which I assume that the price will reach the area of 5915.
Then we will look for a short trade entry, but for now all my thoughts are only on long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500 Index: First Correction Since July 2023I was just looking at NVDA and the market has been bullish forever. A drop is approaching and I wondered, "Will this be a short lived correction or will it turn into a bear-market?"
Good question isn't it?
The last correction for the SPX happened between July and October 2023, after that, it has been 100% bullish with some retraces lasting a maximum of three weeks. So it is hard to think of a bear-market.
From January 2022 through October 2022 the SPX entered a strong correction, a bear-market, it lasted 280 days. There you have it.
How would that look like today? Let's see... Ten months would put us at August/September 2025, can you imagine?
These markets are super resilient, and with money printing going on over-drive soon, it is possible that we only experience a correction. A correction can last several weeks to a few months maximum.
Big correction or small correction, three weeks or ten months, the SPX is bearish and pointing lower in the coming days, weeks and months.
Namaste.
S&P500 Bottom expected this week.New bull phase to 6500 startingThe S&P500 index (SPX) has a red 1W candle last week, its first after 6 straight green. This was a much needed technical correction on a rally that has been holding since the August 05 low, while on the longer term it's part of a Channel Up that since last October (2023), hence a year ago, is being supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
We've identified a similar pattern, essentially an identical price action that started after the March 2020 COVID bottom and extended all the way to the November 2021 peak. It appears that relative to that Channel Up pattern, we are about to complete this week step (e), which on May 17 2021, it priced the 2nd straight red week and then resumed the uptrend.
Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we remain inside a Bull Phase. The symmetry between the two fractals is striking, both have ascended by +43.46% up to step (e). If this symmetry continues all the way to the top, then that could be at a +62.37% rise from the Channel's bottom.
As a result, this gives us a 6500 Target (at least) by Q2 2025.
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How the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 IndexHow the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 Index
Today, 5 November, the U.S. presidential election is underway, and it may serve as a significant driver of volatility for global stock markets.
According to EuroNews, heightened market fluctuations are expected throughout the voting period on 5 November, potentially mirroring reactions observed during the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. election. Newsweek notes that historically, U.S. stock markets tend to rise regardless of the election winner. In 2020, for example, American stocks rose immediately after election day and continued upward even as Trump contested the results.
Investor’s Business Daily highlights Tony Roth, CIO of Wilmington Trust, who argues that U.S. stock markets could climb regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, as both candidates provide viable economic paths that could support market sentiment.
On 14 October, analysing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we plotted three narrow upward channels (shown in blue), noting:
→ each channel has a similar slope and width;
→ connecting the maximum of Channel 1, the peak and trough of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 outlines a larger channel (in orange).
Today’s technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the current index level near the lower edge of the third blue channel, with additional support around:
→ former resistance at $5678;
→ the lower orange boundary.
Election results may trigger a volatility spike, potentially testing or reinforcing these support levels, which could shape future market momentum.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
how I find support and resistance of a trendTo understand Price Action, first thing we do is to look for (S) and (R) to help us read strength&weakness of price.
This video will explain how I find Support and Resistance of a trend.
I will provide example of what your chart will looks like throughout trading hours.
how to know which candle to draw (S)/(R).
Wave 4 nearing the end 5703 to 5696 wave 5 5935 plusThe chart posted is the cash sp 500 .I sold longs the other day small gain then moved to a 90 to 100 long puts in the money and sold for a nice gain at 4;15 pm as the min abc down was formed . since then we broke hard the timing from july 16 called for a top and drop . so now what is that the TOP TOP I have an issue with it as it was a low bull sediment and A high short term put.call I see this decline as wave ABC down for wave 4 and should hold 5703 to 5696 and then Turn up We are how ever being held back until the new moon at 8.47 am We should see a very strong move in the direction up to see a print min target 5935 to as high as 6118 with 6012 as the most likely price I will how ever be selling LONGs at 5921 and up and buying in the money puts at these prices . Best of trades WAVETIMER 2024 was a great year again $$$ 43 winning trades flat 8 loss 9
SP500 Double gap analysis ideaWe can see that there are 2 gaps in the SP500, both are at similar distances, which one will close first?
Always do your own research
S&P, Bullish Parabolic Move comingS&P, is consolidating in a tight range. I'm expecting breakout of inner rising wedge by 5th November, i.e. the Election result date. Followed by Parabolic move upwards. The top end of the channel is around levels of 7500.
Refer to my previous posts, i have posted bullish view of equities and precious metals
If you like this idea, kindly boost and subscribe. :)
SPX500USD Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,779.8.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,887.5 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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S&P500: 1D MA50 hit after 50 days. Is it a buy?S&P500 just turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.346, MACD = 12.360, ADX = 37.705) as it hit yesterday the 1D MA50 for the first time since September 11th. The Channel Up since August is intact and each of its two previous Lows took place on the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 respectively, so each time an MA period higher. The 1D RSI is also reversing on a similar pattern as those two Lows. Our Target is the top of the pattern (TP = 6,000).
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Get Ready for a DumpIsrael’s security cabinet will vote Thursday on its response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, an Israeli official told CNN. Earlier, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the retaliation would be “powerful, precise, and above all – surprising.”
be ready.
S&P500 Screaming Caution!Bearish Rising Wedge building pressure at the bottom of the structure. BAD JUJU!!
Bulls don't be a "dick for a tik"
CAUTION!
SPx / Critical Levels to Watch for Bullish or Bearish MomentumS&P 500 Index Technical Analysis:
To initiate a downside move, the price needs to stabilize below 5,863. However, any quick break above 5,863 would likely propel the price towards 5,891.
Bearish Scenario: Stability below 5,863 would open the path to 5,824 and 5,803. A 4-hour candle close below 5,781 would activate a stronger bearish zone, allowing for further declines.
Bullish Scenario: A successful breakout above 5,863 would signal potential for a move to 5,891. A further break above 5,891 would confirm the bullish trend, with an extended target of 5,939.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5891, 5939
Support Levels: 5824, 5803, 5781
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5863
Bullish above 5863 and 5891
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,735.3.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,643.6.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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You Killed my Dog - Revenge TradingRevenge trading is a behavioral trap that can ensnare even experienced traders. It's the impulse to enter a new trade immediately after a significant loss, often fueled by frustration or a need to "win back" what was lost. However, succumbing to this urge can lead to further losses and greater emotional instability. This psychological cycle, if left unchecked, can spiral into a destructive pattern that can erode both account balances and self-confidence.
1️⃣ Understanding the Root of Revenge Trading
At its core, revenge trading arises from the natural human response to loss. This reaction can be linked to what’s known as the "fight-or-flight" mechanism—when traders feel threatened by a financial loss, they experience a rush of adrenaline, which can result in impulsive decision-making. This initial phase often reflects the trader's attachment to their profits or ego rather than a rational, strategy-based response. You need to recognize this instinct to regain lost money as the first step to addressing revenge trading. By understanding that revenge trading is driven more by emotion than by reason, you can start building awareness around your trading behavior.
2️⃣ Identifying the Emotional Cycle in Revenge Trading
The emotional cycle in revenge trading typically starts with anger, followed by a need to “win back” losses, often resulting in riskier trades. This cycle can repeat and intensify as losses compound, leading to feelings of self-blame and regret. Identifying the triggers that set off this emotional cycle—such as a recent loss or the need to prove something—can help you avoid jumping into impulsive trades. Recognizing these cycles early can allow you to pause, reflect, and make better choices.
3️⃣ Setting Up Predefined Trading Rules
One of the most effective strategies to prevent revenge trading is to establish strict trading rules, including stop-loss levels, damage control triggers and daily limits. When you have clear, predefined rules, it becomes easier to stick to a plan rather than trading based on emotions. For instance, having a rule to stop trading for the day after a certain level of loss ensures that you have time to step away and reset mentally. Knowing when to pause prevents the desperation that often triggers revenge trading, reinforcing discipline and giving you time to recover emotionally.
4️⃣ Building Self-Awareness Through Mindfulness Practices
Mindfulness is an effective tool for managing the emotional pressures that come with trading. Practices such as deep breathing, meditation, or even journaling after each trading session can help increase self-awareness and emotional regulation. These exercises help you stay present in the moment, allowing for a more objective assessment of a situation without letting anger or frustration cloud your judgment. The more self-aware you become, the better you can avoid the emotional pitfalls that lead to revenge trading.
5️⃣ Creating a Loss Recovery Plan
Developing a structured plan for recovering from losses is another way to counteract revenge trading tendencies. This plan may include specific actions, such as re-evaluating the last losing trade, understanding why it failed, and making a list of ways to improve your strategy. A loss recovery plan can provide structure and prevent panic-driven decisions. For example, instead of doubling down on the next trade, you might focus on smaller, more conservative trades to gradually regain what was lost, creating a more balanced and thoughtful approach to rebuilding.
6️⃣ Learning from Historical Instances of Revenge Trading
The idea of revenge trading is not new; many traders, including professionals, have been affected by it. One well-known example is the collapse of Barings Bank, which was largely due to rogue trader Nick Leeson’s revenge trading following initial losses. His increasing risk in an attempt to “win back” losses ultimately led to catastrophic results. Studying such cases reminds you of the real consequences of revenge trading and encourages you to approach each trade with caution, even after a loss.
7️⃣ Leveraging Support Networks and Mentorship
Having a support system, such as trading peers, a coach, or even online communities, can provide accountability and perspective when dealing with losses. Discussing challenges and trading experiences with others helps you reflect on your decisions and avoid impulsive trading. A mentor, in particular, can be instrumental, as they bring experience, objectivity, and practical advice for managing the emotional hurdles of trading. By fostering these connections, you build resilience and have someone to consult with during tough times, which can help prevent revenge trading behaviors. Shameless plug: join us at The Trading Mentor, you will not regret it ;)
Revenge trading can be a powerful and destructive force, driven by deep-rooted emotional responses to loss. But with self-awareness, mindfulness, structured plans, and support, you can gain control over these impulses and foster a healthier, more disciplined trading mindset. The journey to overcoming revenge trading is one of introspection, strategy, and gradual improvement, helping you achieve long-term trading success while minimizing emotionally driven mistakes.
SPX: s short break? After the winning streak during the last six weeks, the S&P 500 decided to relax a bit during the previous week. The index closed the week 0,3% lower, at the level of 5.808. While tech companies for one more time drove the markets higher, still, healthcare and manufacturing industries slowed down a bit. It should be especially mentioned TSLAs weekly performance, where shares of this company surged by 22%. This was the best performance of the company for the last 11 years, after TSLA posted better than expected Q3 results.
The sentiment on the markets was mixed considering increased US Treasury yields and also effects of the hurricane in Florida. This mixed sentiment could continue during the week ahead, considering important macro data which is set for a release. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index and Non-farm payrolls might bring some volatility back to markets in case of any surprises from current market expectations.
$SPX pattern repeatingThis is essentially already explained on the chart.
my own short entry point would be around 5770 with a target of 5400
S&P500 / Bearish Pressure Builds: Key Support Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis
The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643.
Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone.
Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850.
Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5748
Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824
Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643
SPX: Critical Levels and Volatility Ahead Amid Key Data ReleasesTechnical Analysis
The price is likely to attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643.
Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone.
Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850.
Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,732 and 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675.
Today’s market is expected to be highly volatile due to the release of the NFP, Unemployment Rate data, and earnings reports, which will likely have a strong impact on indices.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5748
Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824
Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643
previous idea:
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds.
Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SPX at support ahead of critical dataIntraday Update: As the "bias chart" supported has noted the last several sessions, key support is at 5770, and today's lows (as of now) is 5775. With PCE, ECI and unemployment claims and earnings from a ton of major companies like AAPL, AMZN, MA and more later today, this support will be in focus.
