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SPX Long Trade Setup Analysis (3H Timeframe - Vantage)🔹 Current Setup: - 🦈 The Bullish Shark Pattern has completed at D (5912.17), indicating a potential reversal zone. - 📉 Price is currently bouncing off the 1.001 Fibonacci extension level. - 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Take Profit Targets): - 🎯 TP1: Fibonacci 27.2% extension (~6201.66) - 🎯 TP2: Fibonacci 61.8% extension (~6286.52) - 📍 Key Support Levels: - ❗ Critical Stop Zone: 5889.73 (inside the previously broken channel) - 🔻 Deeper Bearish Target: 5782.41 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup) - 🟢 Entry: Above 5945 (current market price) - 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6201 (27.2% Fibonacci extension) - 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6286 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) - 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5890 (to avoid whipsaws) ✅ Justification: - 🔹 Price has bounced from a strong Fibonacci support level - 🔹 Harmonic pattern suggests a potential bullish reversal - 🔹 TP targets align with Fibonacci extension levels and previous structure resistance 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup) - ❌ Invalidation Level: Below 5880 - 🔻 Downside Targets: - 5820: First support area - 5782: 161.8% Fibonacci extension ✅ Justification: - ❗ If the price breaks below 5890, the harmonic pattern fails, signaling more downside - ❗ 5782 aligns with channel equilibrium, meaning a further drop could happen ⚡ Key Takeaways - 🔹 Bullish bias above 5912, bearish below 5890 - 🔹 A break above 6000 will confirm the uptrend - 🔹 A break below 5880 could lead to 5782 or lower
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Who-Is-Caerus
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event. Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes : The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks. The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002. Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors: Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory: The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months. Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns: Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2). Geopolitical and Systemic Risks: Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs. Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026: Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing: AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025 Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting: A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels) Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025 Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035 Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes. Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators Recession Probability Models: NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026 Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline Technical Analysis: Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash) Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024 Likely Catalysts for Correction: Trigger Probability Potential Impact Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25% Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20% Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35% Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40% The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%. Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities High-Risk Sectors Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases. Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction. Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262. Defensive Opportunities Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams. Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average. Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines. Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis Comparative Scenario Modeling Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25% Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40% Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20% 1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15% The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction: Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward. Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors Portfolio Construction Recommendations: Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through: 15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets 20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV) 5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike) Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields. Alternative Assets: 10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium) 5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following Behavioral Considerations Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on: Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Who-Is-Caerus
S&P 500 Eyes New ATH – Breakout or Pullback Next? S&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis – February 17, 2025 Market Overview The S&P 500 is on the verge of breaking to a new All-Time High (ATH) as U.S. investors return from the long weekend. The index maintains strong bullish momentum, with traders eyeing fresh highs. However, historical seasonal trends suggest that a breakout could be followed by a deeper pullback, making it crucial to monitor key levels. Technical Outlook Bullish Scenario: As long as the price trades above 6123, the uptrend remains strong, targeting the next resistance levels at 6168 and 6225. A daily close above 6123 would reinforce the bullish momentum and increase the likelihood of further highs at 6279. Bearish Scenario: If the index closes a 4-hour candle below 6098, bearish pressure may emerge, leading to potential declines toward 6031 and 6010. Key Levels to Watch 🔹 Pivot Point: 6123 🔹 Resistance Levels: 6168, 6224, 6279 🔹 Support Levels: 6098, 6031, 6010 📈 Momentum remains bullish while above 6123, but a break below 6098 could trigger a pullback! 💬 Will S&P 500 break to new ATHs or face a pullback first? Drop your predictions below! 👇🔥
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
7
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18SP:SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18 OK - SPX - my baby. Expected move on the day is between 6080 - 6155 Expected move on Wednesday’s contract 6065 - 6165 30 Day average is a bit wider 6050 - 6180 so might not be a bad plan to find the midpoint as well. Everything between 6165 and 6180 is extreme overbought and likewise everything between 6050 and 6065 is extreme oversold on the week. That downtrend line that is facing down is not downward momentum. Look to the Moving averages instead. We are just underneath ATH’s here and if we break above 6155 is the next target on the day Underneath us we have the 35EMA and at the very bottom we have the 30min 200MA. These two are bullish here after inflation data.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
S&P500 Remarkable 16year Time Cycles call the Top and CorrectionThe S&P500 index (SPX) just made a new All Time High (ATH) and even though it hasn't picked up the pace since the initial very aggressive post-elections rally, it is entering a bullish phase. In fact that is technically the last rally phase of the Bull Cycle that started at the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis in October 2022. The reason behind this is the index' very reliable and consistent Time Cycle pattern that is repeated over and over again within the 16-year Channel Up that had been holding since the bottom of the 2009 Housing Crisis. As you can see on this remarkable trading blue-print, ever since the index recovered the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into its long-term Support, strong Cycles of Growth (Bullish Leg) and correction (Bearish Leg) phases became the norm. Using the 1M RSI specific overbought pattern, we can see that from those points onwards, the Bull Cycle usually took around 12 months before it topped (Higher High on the Channel Up) and then corrected. This suggests that by September 2025 we may have a new peak and it would be a good idea to have sold stock investments by then. The first two 12-month rallies (2014, 2018) posted +22.10% increases while the third (2021) posted +27.80%. As a result this gives us a potential range of 6800 - 7200 within which selling should occur, in preparation for the 2026 correction. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
5
S&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish OutlookS&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish Outlook The S&P 500 has been ranging since November 11, 2024, consolidating within a well-defined structure. A Wyckoff Spring occurred on January 13, confirming a strong demand zone and establishing a firm floor for price action. Currently, price is trading above a key level at 6,100, signaling bullish momentum. As long as price holds above this level, any bullish pattern presents a strong buy opportunity with a long-term target of 6,400. Trade Plan: 📈 Bias: Bullish 🔹 Entry: Look for bullish confirmations above 6,100 🔹 Target: 6,400 🔹 Invalidation: Breakdown below 6,100 This setup aligns with the larger trend and market structure. Let’s see how it plays out!
FX:SPX500Long
by LeeNasdaq
S&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish OutlookS&P 500 Trade Idea – Bullish Outlook The S&P 500 has been ranging since November 11, 2024, consolidating within a well-defined structure. A Wyckoff Spring occurred on January 13, confirming a strong demand zone and establishing a firm floor for price action. Currently, price is trading above a key level at 6,100, signaling bullish momentum. As long as price holds above this level, any bullish pattern presents a strong buy opportunity with a long-term target of 6,400. Trade Plan: 📈 Bias: Bullish 🔹 Entry: Look for bullish confirmations above 6,100 🔹 Target: 6,400 🔹 Invalidation: Breakdown below 6,100 This setup aligns with the larger trend and market structure. Let’s see how it plays out!
FX:SPX500Long
by LeeNasdaq
$SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 SP:SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 Last week was inflation data week and Monday and Tuesday we opened with a gap up and then stayed flat from there until CPI on Wednesday where we dropped down and filled the Monday gap and bounced on the 50 Day Moving Average. After CPI (which came in HOTTT) and the bounce on the 50Day we took it to the downtrend and then pushed passed resistance And then saw resistance at ATH’s - not making new ATH’s even though we did see that in SPY Friday closed Flat, SPY 0.00%, SPX -0.01% Vix UP 4.06% and we closed within the implied move on the day. —— Watching just the 35EMA and the 30min 200MA we opened the week neutral and when price dropped to the 50DMA the 35EMA bounced on the 30min 200MA and we bounced it from there. —- Stupid Willy reading overbought with initial red signal line
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
4
2025 Market Outlook - Cautiously Bullish (Important Bar Counts)Hey Everybody, Thanks for checking out the video. I'm reviewing all major instruments, US and Non US. US has carried the financial markets since 2020 and 2022 and this year out of the gate we're seeing big runs in "uninvestable" spaces like Europe and China. I say that jokingly because of how bad everything thought non US assets were, but here we are watching DAX, FTSE, and HSI running to double digit gains while the US lags behind. Will the US catch up and the global economy tide rise to lift all boats or are we truly seeing a catch up trade that will have headwinds uncertainties a plenty? Time will tell. This week is a holiday shortened trading week, RBA and RBNZ expected to cut rates, Europe and US printing PMI on Friday. BABA and BIDU earnings this week (China related), and NVDA earnings next week (#2 market cap in US). I discuss the big bar counts that I'm watching closely on SPY, SPX, XSP, RSP, NDX, QQQ, DIA, NVDA, META, NFLX, and others that I believe technically will matter for limited upside momentum without a bigger pause, snapback or correction ahead. Cautiously optimistic is a perfect play for 2025. I'm off to a good start for the year and intend to keep that way without chasing or doing anything silly. Thank for watching.
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
S&P 500 - Ending Diagonal Triangle - February 2025The S&P 500 (SPX) could be nearing completion of an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT) that began after the 11/04/24 bottom. This formation is the terminal phase of a larger degree trend. Price frequently throws over the trendline connecting the peaks of the third and first waves. In this case the target zone is SPX 6,145 to 6,165. Time zone for a top is 02/18/25 to 02/20/25. Its rare for U.S. stocks to peak in February. The last time this occurred was just before the 2020 covid crash. The SPX peak was made on 02/19/20. Its possible another SPX February top could be made almost exactly five years after 02/19/20.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
4
Updated S&P 500 Long Term Elliott Wave Count 2/17/25 The S&P 500 (SPX) could be very near the completion of a 28 – month extended Elliott Impulse wave that began in October 2022. There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. Followers to my website will notice that the count illustrated in this post is slightly different to what was shown on the website. Both wave counts have the same message – a multi – month or even a multi- year SPX bear market could begin in a few trading days. Both weekly RSI and MACD have multiple bearish divergences which imply the SPX could soon decline 20% or more! I will soon post another shorter – term SPX wave count illustrating a fascinating Elliott wave structure.
SP:SPXShort
by markrivest
SPX: risky optimismA strong performance of the S&P 500 and increased investors optimism was back during the previous week. Despite hotter than expected inflation figures for January, the market was pushing the index to the higher grounds during the week. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday at 6.122, still the ATH has not been breached on this occasion. The reason for investors optimism analysts are noting a more clarity over US Administration trade tariffs, on one side, and a drop in retail sales of -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectations. The combination of released data is pointing that the current elevated inflation is not putting pressure on Fed rates. The S&P 500 gained around 1,5% for the week. Analysts from JPMorgan noted that the participation of earnings of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies included in the S&P 500 index are beginning to slow down compared to other companies included in this index. On the other hand, analysts from Swiss largest bank, UBS, are pointing to potential negative effects of US trade tariffs for the US economy. They are mentioning retaliation risks from trading with the US in case of higher tariffs. This points out that despite current market optimism, there are still ongoing risks which could easily impact investors' optimistic mood, and bring back higher volatility to the US equity markets.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Breakout or Fakeout? SPX at CrossroadsBreakout or Fakeout? SPX at a Critical Crossroads | SPX Market Analysis 17 Feb 2025 Welcome to another shortened trading week, thanks to Presidents' Day (or maybe an extended Valentine's weekend for the lucky ones). With all the nudge nudge, wink wink out of the way, let’s talk setups. I’m watching two key trade scenarios—a breakout continuation or a break-in reversal (aka a false breakout). For now, it’s time to grab a cuppa and a hobnob while waiting for the markets to open. --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: ☕ Tea, biscuits, and breakout confirmations With Tuesday’s open ahead, my focus is on two key setups that could determine the next tradable move. Scenario #1 – The Breakout That Needs to Prove Itself On Friday, SPX tried to break out, but price action was about as decisive as someone staring at a restaurant menu for 20 minutes before ordering a burger. Price meandered sideways, leaving traders guessing I chose to sit this one out, because long weekends can mess with momentum Now, we watch if Tuesday brings real follow-through If this breakout is legit, we should see: ✅ A strong push above Friday’s highs ✅ Sustained momentum without rapid reversals ✅ Clean continuation setups for bullish entries If we get weak price action, I’ll hold off on longs and consider the next setup… Scenario #2 – The ‘Break-In’ (A False Breakout Setup) Now, let’s talk about something you won’t find in trading textbooks—the Break-In setup. Think of it like this: Imagine SPX breaking out, getting everyone excited, then suddenly doing a U-turn and slamming back into the previous range. Traders who chased the breakout get trapped, and those who spot the reversal early have a golden shorting opportunity. Signs of a Break-In setup: ❌ Price fails to hold breakout levels ❌ Quick rejection and reversal back into the previous range ❌ Bearish momentum builds instead of continuation If SPX falls back into the range, I’ll be watching for short setups, because these moves can be quick and brutal. So What’s the Plan? 🧐 1. Watch for Tuesday’s Open – If SPX continues Friday’s breakout, we look for bullish setups. If not, the Break-In trade is on the table. 🎯 2. Avoid Jumping in Too Early – Long weekends can create fake momentum that doesn’t hold. Patience is key. 🍪 3. Keep an Eye on Volatility – If volume is weak, the move could be another dud. But if volatility spikes, we could get a real tradeable move. 🚀 Key Takeaway? SPX has picked a direction, but the real move happens once full liquidity returns. Until then, I’ll be enjoying my tea and biscuits while the market figures itself out. Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The biggest post-holiday market crash happened in 1929, when the Dow plunged 12.8% after a weekend—triggering the Great Depression. 💡 The Lesson? Markets don’t take holidays—they just store volatility for later. That’s why smart traders stay prepared for anything after a break.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
4