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SPX trade ideas

Short setup on SPX (x2)After the most recent upward move, the SPX shows clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup. Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving upward and it's now near its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend. This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration. Three additional signs support this setup: The RSI Exhaustion shows recent bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely. The price has formed a top just shy of its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator. A major level has formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level turned into support, it originated as resistance and could well revert back to it should be price start to drop further. Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
TVC:SPXShort
by a.b
SPX: s short break? After the winning streak during the last six weeks, the S&P 500 decided to relax a bit during the previous week. The index closed the week 0,3% lower, at the level of 5.808. While tech companies for one more time drove the markets higher, still, healthcare and manufacturing industries slowed down a bit. It should be especially mentioned TSLAs weekly performance, where shares of this company surged by 22%. This was the best performance of the company for the last 11 years, after TSLA posted better than expected Q3 results. The sentiment on the markets was mixed considering increased US Treasury yields and also effects of the hurricane in Florida. This mixed sentiment could continue during the week ahead, considering important macro data which is set for a release. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index and Non-farm payrolls might bring some volatility back to markets in case of any surprises from current market expectations.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P500 Bottom expected this week.New bull phase to 6500 startingThe S&P500 index (SPX) has a red 1W candle last week, its first after 6 straight green. This was a much needed technical correction on a rally that has been holding since the August 05 low, while on the longer term it's part of a Channel Up that since last October (2023), hence a year ago, is being supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). We've identified a similar pattern, essentially an identical price action that started after the March 2020 COVID bottom and extended all the way to the November 2021 peak. It appears that relative to that Channel Up pattern, we are about to complete this week step (e), which on May 17 2021, it priced the 2nd straight red week and then resumed the uptrend. Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we remain inside a Bull Phase. The symmetry between the two fractals is striking, both have ascended by +43.46% up to step (e). If this symmetry continues all the way to the top, then that could be at a +62.37% rise from the Channel's bottom. As a result, this gives us a 6500 Target (at least) by Q2 2025. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
24-Hour Short-Term Risk-on Risk-off Forecast for 30/10/2024Market sentiment appears to show mixed signals, with both risk-on and risk-off characteristics evident across various assets. Today’s sentiment leans towards mixed or cautious optimism, with selective risk-on trading tempered by defensive positioning amid global uncertainties. Investors are showing restrained enthusiasm for growth assets but continue to hedge in safe-havens due to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:SPX
by AfreeBit
S&P 500TREND ; The S&P 500 index is currently in an uptrend (Bullish), characterized by higher highs and higher lows since mid-August. PLAN : • The support zone around 5,670 acted as a base for a recent upward move. • The 5,870 level seems to be a key resistance area, and price is currently testing this level. • If the price breaks above the 5,870 resistance level, my potential target will be around 5,989.15. • Note that the blue arrow indicates the measured move from the support level at 5,750 up to the resistance at 5,870, which could imply the projected target if this breakout occurs.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by juniormoseki1
Market dynamics and Fed's role - Trump Re-ElectionRecent polls and market predictions have fueled speculations of a potential re-election for former U.S. President Donald Trump, with investors eyeing so-called “Trump trades” — strategies that typically involve a stronger dollar, reduced interest rates, and a preference for U.S. stocks over international ones. While these investments appear to be gaining momentum, there are concerns among financial institutions that they may have already reached their peak, potentially limiting gains in the near future. However, a significant factor adding complexity to this landscape is the role of the Fed and its influence on economic performance through its monetary policies. The Fed’s recent rate cuts, inflation control, and employment policies could have a decisive impact on both “Trump trades” and broader market stability. The Fed’s Dual Mandate: Inflation Control and Full Employment The U.S. Federal Reserve operates with a dual mandate: to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2% as measured by the Consumer Price Index and to sustain full employment, although it doesn’t set a specific target for the unemployment rate. When the CPI strays too far from the 2% goal, or if there are dramatic shifts in employment, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to influence economic conditions. In 2022, the CPI hit a 40-year high of 8%, prompting a swift response from the Fed. Contributing factors included the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during 2020 and 2021 to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, near-zero interest rates, and quantitative easing measures that flooded the financial system with liquidity. In response, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 5.33%, marking a two-decade high. This aggressive policy adjustment has since helped bring the CPI down to an annualized rate of 2.4% as of September 2024, aligning closer to the Fed’s target. September Rate Cut and Market Expectations for November In light of these trends, the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed decided to cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point in its September meeting. The upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for early November raises the question of whether another rate cut could be imminent. Given that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, a further rate cut seems likely. Moreover, with the unemployment rate climbing from 3.7% to 4.1% this year, there are signs of potential weakening in the job market, reinforcing the need for the Fed to support economic growth before further job losses occur. Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the downside risks to employment have increased, which might justify additional rate reductions. According to the FOMC’s September projections, there could be another 50 basis points of cuts before year’s end. With only November and December meetings remaining, most predictions suggest two 25-basis-point cuts in each session. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflects a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week, with a 78% likelihood of a similar cut in December. Impact of Rate Cuts on Trump Trades and Broader Markets These potential rate cuts have mixed implications for "Trump trades." Lower interest rates can benefit U.S. stocks in the long run by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, boosting their capacity for growth, and increasing consumer spending power. This environment would likely favor sectors central to “Trump trades” — primarily energy, finance, and certain defensive industries — especially if Trump secures re-election. On the other hand, if Harris wins, analysts anticipate a more balanced international investment landscape, which could weaken the dollar and shift investment attractiveness from U.S. to international stocks. Harris’s policies, expected to support environmentally friendly sectors and lessen trade tensions, may also benefit industries outside the U.S., including healthcare and manufacturing. Long-Term Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Outlook Looking beyond this year, the FOMC’s forecast indicates the possibility of an additional 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, with a final 25-basis-point cut in 2026. If realized, this would bring the federal funds rate to approximately 2.88%, nearly halving it from its recent peak. Historically, such reductions support stock markets, enhancing growth across various sectors by enabling corporations to expand with cheaper credit and improve profitability with lower interest costs. Still, investors remain cautious. Rate cuts are favorable for stocks only when economic conditions are stable. If further unemployment spikes indicate deeper economic challenges, investors could pull back, particularly from “Trump trades,” opting for safer assets amid heightened uncertainty. Preparing for Market Adjustments Based on Election Outcomes As the November elections draw near, markets remain highly sensitive to both political forecasts and the Fed’s rate decisions. While “Trump trades” show ongoing upward momentum, the potential for an investment realignment looms based on the election outcome. Investors are preparing for scenarios under both Trump and Harris, each with profound implications for the U.S. and global economy. In either case, the Fed’s monetary policy — and its influence over inflation and employment — will be crucial in shaping the investment landscape for the coming years.
SP:SPXLong
by kgougakis
U.S. Index Futures Eye Key Pivot Ahead of ElectionU.S. Index Futures Eye Key Pivot Ahead of Election U.S. stock index futures surged on Monday, poised to recoup some losses from a turbulent trading week as investors prepared for key corporate earnings and the final phase before the Nov. 5 presidential election. Technical Analysis: After pulling back from the Support zone around 5803, the price will touch the 5863 and then will drop again by stability under it. If the price holds below the Resistance line, it could drop to 5803. Breaks the liquidity Zone which is between 5863 and 5891 it could push up toward 5939 Watch for confirmation at the liquidity zone for a bullish breakout or breakdown from the support line for further downside movement. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5863 Resistance Levels: 5891, 5939 Support Levels: 5825, 5803, 5781 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5863 Bullish above 5863
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.29.24CBOE:SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for 10.28.24 Alright, y’all…. So I am still sick so no videos until this get’s cleared up. But here is the chart for today. I feel good enough to maybe trade today but still kind of Meh… LOL…. I don’t get sick often and MAN this stinks. Previous support (5805) is right at the bottom of the gap we opened yesterday 35EMA is still above the 30min 200MA. ATH’s are at the top of the implied move for tomorrow. Under 5805 the next support is 5770 and a 1hr 200MA coming up as well. Honestly looks fun!!
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
SP500: Markets watch for JOLTs and corporate resultsThis Tuesday, October 29, 2024, marks the start of a pivotal week for the markets, with several key reports that will define the trend of the coming days. In addition to corporate results and the JOLTs survey, multiple relevant economic indicators will be released throughout the day. Here are the five key highlights for today: 1. U.S. JOLTs survey. Today at 15:00 (Spanish time), the JOLTs survey will be released, revealing the number of job openings in the United States. This report will be crucial to understand the state of the labor market before the expected employment report this Friday. 8.04 million offers are expected, a slight increase from the previous 7.99 million, while job quits are estimated at 3.08 million. These data are crucial ahead of the employment report to be released on Friday. 2. Corporate results Some of the major companies reporting their results today include Banco Santander, Alphabet, Pfizer and AMD. These reports will have a strong impact and these results are expected to set the pace for the market, particularly in key sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals and banking. Additional note: Who are the “Magnificent 7” backing? In addition, the tech giants, known as the “Magnificent 7” (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla), have been in the spotlight for their financial support of the U.S. presidential campaign. Kamala Harris has received majority support from these companies, with the notable exception of Tesla, given Elon Musk's open support for Trump, which stands out in the political donation charts. This endorsement reinforces the influence of techs not only in the markets, but also in the political arena. 3. Volatility in cryptocurrencies and commodities. Cryptocurrencies continue to show volatility, with Bitcoin trading around $71,000 and Ethereum at $2,600. In addition, gold futures are holding around $2,763, while U.S. coffee is trading at $252. 4. Asian movements Asian indices show mixed signs, with rises in the Nikkei and Hang Seng, while the Shanghai Composite slips 0.8%. In Japan, job-to-applicant ratio (1.23) and unemployment rate (2.5%) figures were released, both in line with expectations. 5. European Movements and Wall Street Today In Europe, highlights include the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany (-21) and Eurozone quarterly GDP (0.2%). In the United Kingdom, data such as mortgages and consumer credit will be released. On Wall Street, the previous day closed in positive territory, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and the Dow Jones (+0.6%) standing out. In addition, in the US, the Redbook index and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index will also be published. 6. Debt auctions and other financial indicators During the day, several countries will hold debt auctions, including Japan, New Zealand and the US, with a special focus on the US 7-year bond auction. In addition, reports related to inflation in the US will be released, as well as weekly API crude oil stocks. S&P 500 (AT Ticker: USA500) S&P500 has been moving in the 5,832 points area this week with a bearish presence. Although its long term channel continues to have bullish presence and is moving above the middle zone of its long term channel, it currently appears to be generating a sideways movement since October 14 indicating this indecision in the US market regarding the election. JOLT survey data could extend the value above the current high. The RSI is indicating 58.08% and has been below the 200-day RSI average of 61.40%, this may be indicating that the market is undecided on a possible Trump victory despite consistent support from the magnanimous 7 for a Democratic party that does not appear to be convincing the majority of voters. The strong trading area of the checkpoint (POC) is located in the area of 5,636 points, so a correction could be anticipated this month in the direction of 5,700 points if today's data does not accompany. The day is marked by a series of events that could generate movements in the markets, with the JOLTs survey and the results of important companies as key factors for investors. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ULong
by ActivTrades
S&P500: Next bullish wave is underway.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.557, MACD = 35.840, ADX = 41.016) as the price made a rebound last Wednesday on the 4H MA100, right at the bottom of 6 week Channel Up. The 4H MA100 is the level where the last HL was also priced (October 2nd). Morever the 4H RSI hit and rebounded on the S1 Zone. Regarding the bullish waves, both previous ones have recorded at least a +3.50% rise. This is our expectation once more and we are aiming for slightly under it (TP = 5,950). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
Brief drop due to Electrions chaos, then back up a month afterI was checking last elections on 2012, 2016 and 2020. Seems that there is a brief drop before elections each time (5% to 10%) in the overall S&P500 (SPX). This year, seems that drop is not meaningful yet. Regarthless, I think going defensive this week to be heavy in cash. Then buy back into the market if price hits 5400 previous to Dec. It it do, I'll buy back 25% of SPX and wait if the trend still going in the direction to hit ~5000. If it do, might be back fully invested into the market to hope for a bounce back up signal. We can protect ourselves of a 10% loss if I get this one right OR we can miss 5% on profits if the trend keeps going up in Nov and Dec. Messy chart but I put my resistances and trends in here. Any thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by lealvillarreal