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SPX trade ideas

Buckle Up for the Next Part of the Huffy CycleAs everyone knows, indices move on a predictable 4 month cycle - known as the "Huffy cycle", and this is programmatically built into markets are Donald Trump switches from being "Huffy" (Down moves) to "Less Huffy" (Parabolic organic growth moves). Donald has been huffy lately ... so we ALL KNOW what comes next ...! Are you mentally prepared for the next glorious breakout of the Huffy cycle? I'm sure everyone has noticed the 4 month huffy cycle which can be extensively studied, understood and used to forecast the future flawlessly because if we look at markets over 12 months we can see it looks a little bit kinda like a pattern - so long as you just ignore or remove the parts that are not a pattern. Which is how market cycles work. If you see something a few times, you can be sure it will happen again forever. And if it doesn't you can be sure at worst it can only go down 70% and then it's probably a buy from there. So the huffy cycle is basically risk free, if you look at it in the right way. "But what about all the the things happening" I hear you ask. Lol. NGMI! If you're too stupid to understand the huffy cycle, that's your problem. Not mine! HFSP. Now, of course we all know SPX is not where near gambley for us to generate our birth right generational wealth from the markets. It could take literally YEARS to make money in SPX. Who has time for that? Of course, we want to be looking at the most stupid and speculative things we can - because those are the ones the savvy investors are buying. That's right folks .... "Squeeze season" is upon us. It's been 4 years since we seen anything make any truly irrational hyper parabolic moves in stocks. As we all know, this is too long. Stonks are not allowed to go this long without there being a squeeze cycle. Some doomers out there are even saying squeeze season has been cancelled (lmao ok boomer) - but we know the truth. Squeeze season has just BEEN DELAYED and it being delayed actually means it will just be BIGGER THAN EVER! I don't really have any logic or ideas to back up why it was delayed and why this means it will be an even bigger move, but if I say the word "Whales" I think that covers everything. There are some idiots who are sceptical of the huffy cycle, but I am only writing my post for the future billionaires who are not too bothered about checking the details. And we all know what comes next!!! WGMI, fam.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
28
S&P500: Trump's 90-day tariff pause just saved the day??S&P500 is having so far a +9.50% rise from today's low as even though Trump announced a 125% raise to China tariffs, he lowered and paused tariffs for 90 days to all countries that contacted the U.S. for negotiation. The 1D technical outlook is about to get neutral (RSI = 42.537, MACD = -181.510, ADX = 39.036) as the rebound is taking place at the HL bottom of the Bullish Megaphone, while the 1W MA200 stayed intact. A similar Megaphone was last seen during the previous 2018 Trade War and was completed with the COVID crash that started an abnormal rally to new ATH to correct the equally abnormal crash. Needless to say, it was based on quick rate cuts but the situation isn't all that different today. Trump's stance towards negotiating, coupled with highly anticipated rate cuts, can deliver an equally abnormal rally now. The previous HH of the Bullish Megaphone hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time if the rally extends to the end of the year, targeting the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone would be considered fair (TP = 6,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
The Bearish Cycle of SPX has begun.TL Overshort, rejected, recent price action(PA) has been bearish, the market seems to be overvalued. The AI rush will subside due to the lack of data storage, and questions about how to sustain energy consumption, among other concerns about the sustainability of the tech rush, remain. I think the tech industry will be the leading factor in the bearish cycle as the market continues finding lower levels from higher highs (HH). The forecast predicts a movement towards 4,400 points on the S&P 500 (SPX).
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by achh
1
S&P 500 Index Under Pressure – Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us. The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus . The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks . From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) . I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary? Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps. Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
26
Do not panic. Let's look for opportunity.Don't panic. Let's try to find the opportunity here. Let this be a place free of fear p0rn. Yes, we bounced, but as you can see - we bounced at a perfectly logical place. IF we go lower, where MIGHT the bottom be? Where might we get a major bounce? Let's assume this is something "historic". What I have indicated in the chart would be a crash worse than COVID, but not AS BAD as the Global Financial Crisis. Take the long-term support (going back to GFC) and extend it out. Take the PRE-COVID high and extend it out. This may be an important coordinate, and even if we touch either of the lines, I would expect some bounce. Let's see how it plays out. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY. Don't panic!
SP:SPX
by MonsterStockPicks
S&P 500 Index vs PresidentIn this layout you can see how the S&P has been performed on each presidency. Presidency terms, Obama 1st term: after the financial recession, the index was trying to recover and we saw falls from 16 to 21%, market went up 83%. Obama 2nd term: the index saw falls from 10 to 15%, Market went up 50%. Trump 1st Term: the index saw falls 3 big times 11, 21 and 34% Market went up 68%. Biden 1st Term: the index saw falls 27% and 10%, Market went up 55%. Trump 2nd Term: we are in the 1st fall 21% not sure if it will continue going down. The price wants to get closer to the 200MA every time Fibonacci levels, we are on 0.5, we still have 2 more levels down so these 3 levels could be a good entry point 😊
SP:SPX
by JorgeMz10
1
S&P 500 still testing 5,000Some participants in stock markets had hoped for negotiations to make some progress in the first week of April and at least some countries to be exempted quickly from the latest round of tariffs. However, now it’s a full-scale trade war: China in particular, under 104% tariffs, is very unlikely to back down. The main uncertainty for markets now is less how major countries such as China will continue to react and more whether the American government has discipline of policy to stick to what was announced. So far there hasn’t been a full-day close below 5,000, which suggests that this area is still a support and it’d be possible to see another attempt at a bounce soon. However, it’s important to consider the bigger picture: the current retracement has barely touched the highs from late 2021 and early 2022 plus the losses in the last two months haven’t so far been bigger than in early 2022, just faster. A very obvious bullish interpretation of the chart would be inverted head and shoulders, suggesting a return to 6,000 around this time next month. Perhaps obviously, that’s very questionable given how quickly the trade situation can change. Traders also need to monitor the upcoming earnings season in the USA, particularly banks’ reports on Friday 11 April, and sentiment on the Fed’s upcoming meetings. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
FX:SPX500
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Retests, Rallies, and Bear Swings LoadingYou know what’s better than nailing a trade? Not having to flip, flop, hedge, unhedge, reverse, scalp, and do the full Hokey Cokey just to survive. Today was one of those days – the kind where the plan just works. Futures? Wild. Down 143, up 188, then back to flat - all before most traders finished their first sip of coffee. But while price whipsaws, I’m not chasing shadows. I’ve got my line out. My bear swing is on. And I’m just waiting for the exit alert to ding. --- Let’s break down what happened: Yesterday’s tariff chaos acted like a Mr. Miyagi market prank. “Tariff on.” “Wait, just kidding.” “Tariff off.” The move up? Landed exactly at Monday's news spike and the days 5250 gamma flip level – which we had marked and mapped. Perfect resistance. Retest. Rejection. Bear pulse bars triggered. And now the swing is on. Trade location: Dialled in. Directional bias: still bearish under 5400. Execution: GEX levels + pulse bar structure. Retests, Not Reversals Tuesdays action also gave us something sneaky: An intraday retest of the recent lows. Now, if you’ve been around since the 2020 V-turn era, you’ve seen this before. Panic sell. Sharp bounce. Retest the low to check for real conviction. Then make the real move. This retest could be the prelude to a bull thesis - but not yet. Structure comes first. Bias second. Until we break clean above 5400, I stay bear-biased. --- Expert Insights: Don’t Trade Like You’re in a Dance-Off The Mistake: Overtrading volatility. Flipping bias every 15 minutes. Trading like it’s a talent show. The Fix: Pick your structure. Define your invalidation. Enter once, scale in if needed, and let it play out. No need to “turn around and shake it all about.” Leave the Hokey Cokey for weddings. --- Fun Fact During the 2015–2020 bull run, the average false breakout-to-retest cycle happened within 3 sessions after a panic reversal. Translation? Markets often retest panic lows before deciding the next big move. This isn’t new. It’s just noisy. And totally tradable. ...Another fun fact Did you know? The 104% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports is among the highest in modern history, reminiscent of protectionist measures not seen since the early 20th century.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPX500 Short - Due to tariffs impactMarket overview and macro outlook 1. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs - The 104% tariffs response to China's response and possible 25% pharmaceutical tariffs are weighing down the markets - Markets are expected to keep going down until some news of relief is announced 2. Upcoming news - FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty - US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD -- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut -- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut - US Core PPI on Fri - TBD -- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here. Technical View Continuing the downtrend from yesterday Limit short position at 4910, which is right above a major psychological level. Going for a 1:1 trade. - SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend) - TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone) Execution 1. Limit order - SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend) - TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone) 2. Key note: - To watch out for news on tariffs action by Trump, EU and China. Focus on China, then EU then US as per the timezones for today. 3. TF: - Will close by Friday if price does not retrace back to entry level by then. Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 3 WR: 33% Profit: 1.9R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuhaocooper
Look there is our bottom :)I loved my title :) haha if you're reading this: I intrigued you! And I made you read it. ☺️ thankyou! Ok, This is what I think about why we might be near the bottom. The 200 EMA on a weekly scale has been a very selective indicator to indicate this. Above, you can see how the chart touches the candle when the market is oversold (as indicated by RSI below). You can see that it repeats itself in sharp, spike-like, and short-term decline: marked by the yellow circles on the chart. And finally, the volume indicates, with blue dot lines, the high and medium volume levels. There's no hay below. And we just entered HIGH :) This is going to get even more interesting... and sharp 😜 ✌🏼
SP:SPXLong
by marmoller86
1
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2