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Inflation Report Set to Drive Market; Key Levels for both sideTechnical Analysis: Today’s inflation report is anticipated to drive significant market movements, particularly following unanimous agreement among Fed members to cut rates by 50 basis points. A CPI release exceeding 2.3% is expected to support a bearish trend towards 5,732. Conversely, a CPI below 2.3% would likely drive a bullish trend, targeting 5,863. Additionally, stability above 5,784 would reinforce a bullish outlook, while a close below this level on the 4-hour candle could prompt a decline toward 5,732. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5784 Resistance Levels: 5820, 5863, 5891 Support Levels: 5759, 5732, 5708 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5784 Bullish above 5784
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend higher?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,786.80 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,769.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 5,825.77 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
SPX Short: Seeking PeakThe new high has forced me to recount the last wave and forced me to bring back the original count where I had expected another wave in the early days of October. This has definitely dragged on for too long. Now, let me first say this: there is an alternate count that I am holding that has a scary price target just slightly more than 6000 for SPX. So if I am wrong, CUT THE SHORT POSITION. With that, let me continue. As you can see over in this chart, I will bring your attention to the following: 1. A huge wedge for primary wave 5 itself in Yellow. 2. An internal wave for wave 5 of 5 in Green. 3. A Fibonacci extension that is projected from wave 1 of intermediate wave 5 to the entire intermediate wave 5 (blue wave). 4. An ending diagonal for wave 5 of intermediate wave 5, drawn in green minor wave. 5. The breakdown of the ending diagonal using corrective a-b-c waves in purple (there is no 1-2-3 waves in TradingView for usage). 6. RSI is extended overbought region. From the above, my primary count is that we should see SPX peaking this week. There are 2 potential peak points: 1. Fibonacci extension level of 5802. 2. The upper trendline of the wedges which will be around 5820. The above 2 price points are potential entry points. An alternate way for short entry will be to wait for a reversal candle. You also see in this chart a purple breakdown line. This line can be used if you are a strong hand waiting for the final confirmation of the break and can withstand volatility. Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by yuchaosng
4
$SPX The results in SPX for Oct. 8thSo in last night's video, this was the trading range - and this is the result. We took it right to the top of the implied move. Look at the setup here - Stupid willy below was green over green, so bullish set up there, and the 35EMA was above the 30min 200 average and in the support zone in the bottom half. We had a fully bullish set up and continued that heading into CPI tomorrow. We closed out that last bear gap and we made new all time highs.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Title: Ascending Triangle on the S&P 500"Currently, we’re seeing an ascending triangle forming on the S&P 500. This pattern typically indicates a potential change in momentum. However, we're also noticing a clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour TDI (Traders Dynamic Index), which could suggest that upward momentum is weakening. The key scenario to watch for is if the price fails to close above the upper trendline. As long as we don't get a candle body close above that resistance level, the pattern may remain intact. It’s crucial to remember that this is not financial advice, and the pattern could still become invalid if market conditions change. However, there is a chance that this could signal a top formation."
SP:SPXShort
by Christian_1605
10
S&P 500 Index analysis 2024/10/09SP:SPX Hey everyone, I just got back from a trip. Sorry it's been a while since my last analysis. How's everyone been doing in the markets lately? Notice: The points are only valid from 2024/10/09 to 2024/10/20 What we have now? 1. Current price: 5760 2. The key support and resistances level: 5770 5590 5450 5300 Future Price movement 70% chance : The day level shows strong momentum, and we expect the price to make a slight correction before pushing toward 5770, or even breaking through that level. 30% chance : Moving back to 5590 and start moving back from 5590 to 5450. Trade safe!
SP:SPXLong
by DrkeezySSGcup
2
S&P 500 probes key resistanceThe S&P 500 has been quite resilient despite the Chinese stock market sell-off, raised geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over the upcoming earnings results and not to mention US presidential election. You would think that these risk events would weigh on risk appetite somewhat but so far this hasn't been the case. Still, be on the look out for a possible reversal sign as the index tests this key zone starting around 5755ish to around 5665ish. A potential reversal here will not be too surprising. But as traders we will need to see evidence of a bearish reversal here before looking for any bearish trades. If the index breaks the trend line on this hourly chart or more to the point, goes below 5733, the most recent low, then that could be the trigger I am looking for. Should that happen, then we could see a run towards liquidity that would now be resting below recent lows circa 5672. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
Futures Steady Before Fed Minutes; Alphabet Dips on Breakup TalkFutures tread water ahead of Fed minutes; Alphabet slips Stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting for clues on the policy path, while Alphabet dipped after the U.S. said it was considering breaking up Google. Technical Analysis: The price reversed and stabilized above 5732 so that means will push to 5784, then should close 4h candle above it to be a bullish trend to 5891 otherwise, it would help if you closed 4h candle under 5732 to get 5675 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5747 Resistance Levels: 5784, 5820, 5891 Support Levels: 5732, 5708, 5675 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 5732 Bullish above 5747
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 index short position I think the index has reached a significant resistance level, where I expect a potential reversal. The recent upward momentum appears to be losing steam, and this resistance zone could prompt a pullback. Based on this analysis, I’m anticipating a bearish move, targeting a drop to lower levels. My risk is managed with a tight stop-loss just above the entry, aiming for a favorable risk-reward ratio on this trade. my aim will be entry at : 575205 stop loss : 575504 TP : 569815
SP:SPXShort
by Oceanforexx
S&P500 Consolidation almost over. Prepare for 6300 end of year.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating for roughly the past 3 weeks, significantly above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which indicates that the long-term trend is not in danger. In fact, we believe that it has already entered a Channel Up structure, similar to November 2023 - March 2024. As you can see, in late November 2023 the index was also consolidating way above its 1D MA50 after a strong recovery from a -10.90% correction. This time the consolidation is exactly at the top of the previous High while then it was exactly below it. The 1D CCI sequences between the two fractals show that we are on the exact same position, posting bearish divergencies on the price's consolidation. As a result, we expect a smooth Channel Up expansion towards the end of the year (quick exception the natural volatility around the U.S. elections day) and our Target is 6300, which is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
7
My Bet on Energy Due to AI's Electricity BottleneckWhy I'm Betting on the Energy Market Due to AI's Electricity Bottleneck: My Two Cents As someone who works in the AI space, I've witnessed firsthand the incredible advancements and the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. Companies like NVIDIA have seen their stock prices skyrocket to all-time highs, fueled by the insatiable demand for AI technologies. But beneath this excitement lies a critical, often overlooked issue that could significantly impact the energy sector—and offer intriguing investment opportunities. In this article, I want to share my perspective on why I'm betting on the energy market, specifically utilities and natural gas companies, due to the emerging electricity bottleneck caused by AI's exponential growth. If you're an investor or just someone interested in the intersection of technology and energy, this is a trend you won't want to miss. The Unseen Problem: Electricity Demand Outpacing Supply The AI Boom and Its Energy Appetite Working in AI, I see daily how models are becoming increasingly complex, requiring massive computational power to train and operate. While the parameter sizes of these models aren't doubling every few months, the growth is still substantial. For example, GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters, and estimates suggest GPT-4 has around 280 billion parameters (*1). Training GPT-4 is estimated to have required about 1,750 megawatt-hours of electricity—the equivalent of what 160 average American homes use in a year (*2). But it's not just about training these models; running them (inference) also demands significant power. Each query to GPT-4 consumes about 2.9 watt-hours of electricity, nearly ten times that of a standard Google search (*3). Multiply that by millions of users and billions of queries, and you can see how quickly the energy consumption adds up. Hitting the Limits of Electrical Infrastructure Here's the crux of the issue: our current electrical infrastructure isn't equipped to handle the escalating demands of AI. Data centers already consume 1-2% of global electricity, and this figure is projected to rise to 3-4% by 2030 (*4). The International Energy Agency forecasts that global data center electricity demand will more than double from 2022 to 2026, with AI playing a major role (*5). In my professional circles, there's growing concern about the strain on power infrastructure. Operating large clusters of high-performance GPUs, like NVIDIA's H100, could potentially strain a state's entire electrical grid. While specific figures vary, the general consensus is that we're nearing the limits of what our grids can handle (*6). Microsoft seems to recognize this issue. They've recently purchased a power plant, presumably to secure a stable electricity supply for their data centers (*7). This move underscores the severity of the electricity bottleneck we're approaching. The Impending Slowdown in AI Development Given these constraints, I believe the rapid pace of AI advancement may slow down in the short to medium term. Industry leaders like Elon Musk and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy have identified electricity supply as the latest bottleneck for AI development, replacing the previous constraint of chip availability (*8). It's not just about technological capabilities anymore; it's about physical resources. We simply aren't producing enough electricity to sustain the current trajectory of AI scaling. This isn't a hurdle we can clear overnight. Building new power plants, upgrading grid infrastructure, and securing renewable energy sources are massive undertakings that require time and substantial investment. This potential slowdown has significant implications for markets and investors, shifting attention toward sectors that can address or benefit from these challenges. Why the Energy Sector Stands to Benefit Increased Demand for Electricity The most direct beneficiary of this situation is the energy sector. As AI companies grapple with electricity shortages, utilities and energy providers will see increased demand. According to Goldman Sachs Research, data center power demand is expected to grow 160% by 2030 (*4). This isn't just a temporary spike; it's a trend that could persist as long as the demand for AI technologies continues to grow. Natural Gas as a Key Player Natural gas is a cornerstone of U.S. electricity generation, accounting for approximately 43% of the country's electricity production in 2023 (*9). Its abundance, relatively low cost, and ability to quickly ramp up production make it essential for meeting immediate energy demands. With constraints on electricity supply, natural gas producers and related infrastructure companies are in a prime position to capitalize. Opportunities in Grid Infrastructure Beyond just producing more electricity, there's a pressing need to upgrade and expand the electrical grid. The strain isn't solely about capacity but also about managing fluctuations in demand. Companies specializing in grid infrastructure and smart technologies could see substantial growth as they help modernize the system to handle higher loads. Stocks and Sectors I'm Watching 1. Utilities with Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants NextEra Energy ( NYSE:NEE ): Not only does NextEra have significant natural gas operations, but they're also leaders in renewable energy. This dual focus positions them well for both immediate and long-term energy needs. Duke Energy ( NYSE:DUK ) : Serving millions across multiple states, Duke Energy's extensive infrastructure makes them a key player in meeting increased electricity demand. 2. Natural Gas Producers ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ): As one of the world's largest publicly traded energy providers, ExxonMobil has substantial natural gas operations and the resources to scale up production. Chevron Corporation ( NYSE:CVX ): Chevron's investments in natural gas projects and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities make it a key player in meeting both domestic and international needs. EQT Corporation ( NYSE:EQT ): Focusing on the Appalachian Basin, EQT stands to benefit directly from increased domestic demand. 3. Natural Gas Producers Kinder Morgan ( NYSE:KMI ): Operating extensive pipeline networks, Kinder Morgan is crucial for natural gas distribution. The Williams Companies ( NYSE:WMB ): Specializing in natural gas processing and transportation, Williams is set to capitalize on increased flow, with plans to add around 4.2 billion cubic feet per day from 2024 to 2027 (*10). 4. LNG Exporters Cheniere Energy ( NYSE:LNG ): As the leading U.S. LNG exporter, Cheniere recently loaded their 3,000th cargo in 2023 (*11). Tellurian Inc. ( AMEX:TELL ): Poised for growth with plans to build the first two plants at their Driftwood LNG export facility (*12). 5. Grid Infrastructure and Technology Firms American Electric Power ( NASDAQ:AEP ): Owning the nation's largest electricity transmission system, AEP plans to invest $40 billion from 2023 through 2027, focusing on transmission and distribution (*13). Eaton Corporation ( NYSE:ETN ): Their energy-efficient technologies are vital for grid modernization and enhancing reliability (*14). 6. Renewable Energy Companies While natural gas is key for immediate needs, renewable energy companies are crucial for sustainable long-term solutions. First Solar ( NASDAQ:FSLR ): Specializing in utility-scale solar projects. Brookfield Renewable Partners ( NYSE:BEP ): With a diversified renewable portfolio, they're set to benefit from the shift toward clean energy. Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal opinions and is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, including the loss of principal. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Sources 1. OpenAI's GPT-4 Technical Report cdn.openai.com 2. AI Energy Consumption www.energycentral.com 3. The Hidden Cost of AI www.datacenterknowledge.com 4. Goldman Sachs Research on Data Center Power Demand www.goldmansachs.com 5. International Energy Agency on Data Centers www.iea.org 6. The Conversation on AI Energy Use theconversation.com 7. Microsoft's Power Plant Purchase www.theverge.com 8. Electricity Supply as AI's Bottleneck www.ft.com 9. U.S. Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov 10. Williams Companies Expansion Plans www.williams.com 11. Cheniere Energy Milestones www.cheniere.com 12. Tellurian's Driftwood LNG Project www.tellurianinc.com 13. American Electric Power Investment Plans www.aep.com 14. Eaton Corporation Overview www.eaton.com
SP:SPXLong
by qrDanielqr
3