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SPX trade ideas

SPX: Short term bearish to touch gap? And fill? Looking like there is apparently “no tariff talks” per China. We’re still in such an uptrend, but looking for a short-term pull back on negative news. Also we have FOMC this week. Does Powell give what Trump and the people want, a rate cut? I’m looking for 5678.33 to - TP1: 5672.46 - TP2: 5635.06 Possible touch or fill gap of below 5603.21? Let me know what you think. Do your DD, not FA. Let’s see what the week brings.
SP:SPXShort
by sweatytrigger
SPX Bullish Breakout and Wave 5 TargetSPX has successfully broken out of the rounding bottom pattern, confirming a strong bullish reversal. After completing waves 1 to 4 within the upward channel, the index is now poised to advance into Wave 5. The current momentum supports a rally toward the immediate setup target near 6,690, with an ideal continuation into Wave 5. A decisive breach of this resistance could accelerate the move toward the mid-term target around 7,278, activating a new bullish impulse. The chart highlights key support in the buy zone and emphasizes the importance of a confirmed breakout, offering a high-probability setup aligned with the Wave progression and ongoing trend strength.
SP:SPXLong
by weslad
19
Week ahead analysis May 4th to 11th**Week Ahead Analysis (May 5 – May 11, 2025)** ### **Baseline: Market Expectations** - **Tariffs & Fed Policy:** Trump's tariff announcement has heightened concerns about economic slowing, prompting bond markets to price in up to four Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. - **Trade Talks & Sentiment Shift:** Reports suggest China may restart trade negotiations, boosting risk sentiment. However, China insists the U.S. must first remove all unilateral tariffs, adding uncertainty to the discussions. - **Market Reaction:** Risk assets—equities and high-beta currencies like AUD, NZD, and CAD—are climbing as volatility cools. Meanwhile, safe havens such as JPY, CHF, and gold are facing selling pressure, though overall risk sentiment remains cautious. ### **Potential Surprise Scenarios** - **Trade Deal Secured:** A deal would likely send equities higher, strengthen risk-sensitive currencies, and drive safe havens lower. - **No Deal Reached:** In contrast, safe havens could gain while risk assets retreat. ### **Big Picture Outlook** Regardless of the immediate outcome, the market's medium-term trajectory hinges on the broader effects of trade policy. If tariffs persist, economic uncertainty may sustain the Fed’s dovish stance. A successful trade deal, however, could restore confidence, shifting expectations back toward growth stabili
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Midas_Macro
Chart Called It S&P 500 Bottom on April 7 Confirmed the March 27On March 27, 2025, I published an analysis identifying the potential for a major bottom forming in the S&P 500 near 4,790.57: Original chart and analysis At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal. The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure. On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume. The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822. If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement. This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment. The market followed the chart. The bottom was April 7. The call was made March 27. The chart led the move.
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
Down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD did not close below the Daily FVG and broke the Weekly FVG. Now the trend has changed to bullish but price is moving very slow. This could indicate a leading diagonal (wave 1). So next week we could see a (corrective) move down from the Daily FVG above. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily FVG above and a change in orderflow to bearish, a small impulse wave down and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade (short term) shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
3
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Weekend Trading Note - 3 May 2025A couple of interesting dynamics in the market over the latter half of the week: - Minimal reaction to economic data suggests that traders are weighing the pull between deflation and tariffs, which are undoubtedly putting the fed in a bind. Can they raise rates at a time of uncertainty when it comes to tariff-induced inflation. Recent data suggests deflation and a strong economy. Nothing is clear. - The temporary uncoupling of BTC and the Nasdaq100 is interesting, but such narrative-led decoupling has happened on a short-term basis before. Perhaps this time the anti-dollar trade will continue a while longer, until calm is restored. - Businesses seem to be reacting to the Trump uncertainty by slowing down their trading activity and hesitating to invest or grow until more clarity is available. The loss of confidence and reassurance of clear direction may be damaging in the longer-term, elevating the potential for a technical recession as business enter more defensive posturing. - Theres still some potential for good news around a deal between the US and China leading to a return to a risk-on regime in the near-term. The question on whether this will be enough to propel US equities to new all time highs will depend on the pre-existing structural issues with the macroeconomy Enough macro. Here’s what I’m looking at in markets: - SPX has retraced back up to the 0.618 fib of the recent downside move. This coincides with the POC on the anchored volume profile (anchored from the ATH). If the SPX is going to retest the lows, I’d expect it this begin in the next 5-10 days. A complete breakdown below its current lows is unlikely at this stage, but a wick slightly below current lows marking the bottom is definitely on the cards. - BTC’s relative strength is encouraging. A retest of the $88700 level would offer a good entry for a trade back up to the current high at around $109K and perhaps more.
SP:SPX
by volatility_Viking
April 25 crypto and stock market results📈 April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets. In this post, I’ll break down my April 2025 performance — where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined. 🏛️ Stock market results: $1,144 profit Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well: • Monthly return: just above 1% • S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (−0.44%) Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green. 🪙 Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results. • Monthly crypto return: just over 6% • By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14% While my strategy didn’t beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns. 📊 Portfolio Overview • Cumulative profit: $10,000+ • Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5% I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi. 🔍 What’s Next? I’ll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If you’re interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights — follow along.
SP:SPXLong
by grigori-ilkevich
S&P500 INTRADAY ahead of NFP, resistance at 5670The bulls are firmly in control as the S&P 500 heads for its ninth straight daily gain—the longest winning streak since 2004. Optimism is fuelled by: Expectations of Fed rate cuts due to soft economic data Hopes for renewed US-China trade talks, easing geopolitical risk Strong risk appetite, with Bitcoin nearing $100,000 and equity momentum building Key Risk Today – US Jobs Report: April Nonfarm Payrolls expected at +138K, down from March’s strong beat This is the first major labor data since new US tariffs, and could shift market expectations for Fed policy Conclusion for S&P 500 Traders: Momentum is bullish, but today’s NFP report is a key risk event. A weaker-than-expected jobs number could reinforce rate cut bets and extend the rally. A surprise beat may trigger profit-taking. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5670 Resistance Level 2: 5740 Resistance Level 3: 5820 Support Level 1: 5440 Support Level 2: 5385 Support Level 3: 5316 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P500 1st 4H Golden Cross since Jan could be a TRAP!S&P500 (SPX) completed yearly today its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since January 23. That formation issued an immediate pull-back but technically it's not very similar to the today's as that was formed after an All Time High (ATH) while now we are on the recovery phase after March's massive Trade War fueled correction. The 4H Golden Cross however that looks more similar to the current is the one before January's, the August 21 2024. That was formed after a substantial market pull-back, though again not as strong as March's. Still, the 1D RSI patterns are also more similar and that again should keep us on high alert as 2 weeks later the index pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous High Resistance. As a result, if we see the price now turning sideways for a week or so, we will give higher probabilities for a short-term pull-back, maybe not as low as the 0.5 Fib but at least to the 5450 region, before the market takes off to 6000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500
by TradingShot
2
US500 Reversal Zone? My Thought Process Explained 🎯 📉 Earlier today I posted an analysis on the US500, highlighting how price has traded into a weekly bearish order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where I believe smart money could look to unwind positions. The market is currently overextended and sitting at a premium, which raises the risk of a potential aggressive retrace 🔄, especially heading into the weekend. ⚠️ 💭 Here's a video where I break down that exact setup and walk you through my full thought process, including why I’m exercising extreme caution at these levels and what I’m looking for in terms of confirmation. 📚 As always, this is for educational purposes only — not financial advice. 🚫💼
FX:SPX500
by fxtraderanthony
2
Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ? After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears. In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market. The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down. Today, my scenario is clear: I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points. In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt. 💰 For long-term investing: I'm staying fully in cash. I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market. Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments. 🎯 For swing trading: The approach here is more active. Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range. No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
SP:SPXShort
by LAZY_SMART_TRADING
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈. ⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure. 🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure. 📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by fxtraderanthony
3
Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
13