SPX 500 Technical Analysis This is not financial advice and I never recommend trying to pick bottoms and tops of markets. Trade safely and always wait for confirmation, with sound risk management.
SPX trade ideas
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
[H] SPX 4.8.2025This deserves a closer look.... The orange thug is going to destroy the biggest economy inevitably. Sadly, stock charts are just the beginning, and things will escalate fast. Brace for a world order change.
Are we done with the slide, or not? US indices are suffering right now, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Let's dig in!
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
MARKETSCOM:US30
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday?
In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions.
Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there.
2. Key Question:
Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions?
3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction:
🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there)
🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k
🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions.
4. Trading Plan:
🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range.
✅ Buy near the 4800 support.
✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400.
5. Conclusion:
I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello,
The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward.
What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know."
For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
This is my point of view regarding the S&P 500This is my point of view regarding the S&P 500. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not, but as a general picture, I think there will be similarities.
S&P500 vs Unemployment vs Yield CurveI'd be surprised if that was the bottom in equities. 10yr/2yr is still coming out of inversion which historically is followed by a recession and a decline in equities, and we have unemployment remaining stubbornly low with only one direction to go from current levels. Market selloffs usually mean investors lose money while main street loses jobs so we should start to see the unemployment rate begin to rise from here assuming that the tariff war isn't over.
Trump proved today that he has no intention of relenting on the new tariffs; when China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods, he immediately hit them with 50% tariffs. Not sure which side will cave first, but as long as there is uncertainty around US/China trade the risk for further declines in equities remains.
The previous two times the yield curve inverted, we saw 50%+ declines in equities and rising unemployment when the curve came out of inversion. There was also a short-lived inversion in 2019 with a spike in unemployment and falling equity prices due to Covid, but the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to 0% and printing trillions of dollars kept that bear market short and sweet.
We currently have a Federal Reserve that needs higher rates to fight inflation while at the same time we have a president who wants lower rates to stimulate growth. Catch-22 for the Fed: if they lower rates, they risk reigniting inflation. If they raise rates or keep them flat during a market decline it will speed up the decline in equities. Trump knows this which is why I don't think that the tariff war and market decline are over.
I May Have this Bull Idea Horribly WrongI know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend.
Sell > big profit.
Sell > big profit
Sell > WTF was that
Oh correction > Sell > Big profit.
I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which is crazy high for the way I estimate odds).
But that might have been it. I may have terribly misjudged how deep it would be.
If I have this wrong, 4500 in MIN I've expect to hit and if that level breaks we might capitulate to 3000.
EXTREMELY STRONG WARNING TO ANYONE USING ANY OF THE BULL IDEAS I'VE EXPESSED.
If they're good, they'll be good and easy - and if not, ditch the ideas! They would be predicted to fail spectacularly if wrong.
Probably around 5170 area.
S&P500 Searching for a BottomExecutive Summary
The S&P 500’s Elliott Wave structure suggests the current downtrend is incomplete, with a high-probability target near the 4,300 level based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Global stock markets remain under pressure amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and Elliott Wave patterns across various indices continue to point to more downside.
Current Elliott Wave Analysis
Today’s upward volatility is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today’s lows in the coming sessions.
There is an impulse wave that began in October 2022 and topped in 2025. We are now seeing the after effects of that completed rally. A standard 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300—a logical target for a ‘normal’ correction of the 2022–2025 rally.
Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term.
We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.
S&P 500: Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?
Zoom out. Clear the noise.
We might still sweep the lows, but when viewed on the weekly timeframe, this current S&P 500 move looks more like a healthy valuation correction than a structural breakdown.
Let’s break it down by the numbers using fractal analysis:
🟩 March 2020 (COVID Crash):
▪️~35% drop
▪️V-shaped recovery
▪️Oversold RSI bounce
🟨 2022 Bear Market:
▪️~27% correction
▪️Multi-month wedge consolidation
▪️Eventually led to an upside breakout
🟦 Now (2025):
▪️~21% correction so far
▪️Retesting long-term trendline
▪️RSI in familiar oversold zone
📊 Fractal Math:
- From 35% to 27% = 22.86% decrease
- From 27% to 21% = 22.22% decrease
Both legs show a consistent ~22% drop in correction depth suggesting bearish momentum is weakening with each cycle. Currently bouncing off the1844 days of support.
Is this the bottom? Will there be relief?
🔁 If this pattern holds:
- We could see a short-term sweep or deviation under recent lows.
- But structure favours a potential recovery from this zone, unless the trendline breaks decisively.
📌 Watch levels closely. Timing matters.
🧠 What’s your take, is this another “buy the dip” moment?
Do hit the like button if you liked this update and share your views in the comment section.
$SPX Flirting With a Bear Market alongside $QQQ NASDAQ fell another 4% touching down 26%
S&P 500 walking a tight rope falling 21% to play with the idea of a Bear Market, but has rebounded a bit.
NASDAQ:QQQ did have a stronger response from buyers than SP:SPX
Nonetheless, we would need several WEEKLY closes sub 20% losses to enter a textbook Bear Market.
SPX WEEKLY 7TH APRIL 2025Welcome to SPX weekly. I have deeply discussed the price action here. If you have any doubts, feel free to leave a message or comment below.
NOTE:DO NOT SHORT
To the Mooooooon! I think we just bottomed and we'll now see a retest of the highs.
I'm still net super bearish but I think a trap is possible.
I've taken profit and bought under 5200.
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple:
✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs.
That’s exactly where we are.
🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark.
🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared:
We are in a bear market.
👀 What does this mean?
Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news.
Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment.
While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet.
🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns.
What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash?
#SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)
💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes.
📊 Core Strategy:
The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade.
🧠 How to use it:
1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset.
2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement).
3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback.
4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss.
📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle. The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “Bear 2025 in Numbers”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23.
☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president.
⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycle could be very energetic. But for how long? Interesting developments are likely in spring 2026 during the final stage of the 7-year crisis cycle.
⚠️ We are holding the short position opened on the extreme forecast of March 24 — the midpoint of Mercury retrograde. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14 — the end of the Venus retrograde period, which has been very active this year.
Market Structure is broken - Another - 0 DTE Call Spread on SPXThis may be my last super aggressive Call Spread on SPX, then will watch how the market plays out rest of this week.
-5000 +5005 expires today, 18%
Everything is off atm.
Only options play this week, otherwise I'm a huge buyer of Crypto.
US500 Panic sell, Major support, psychological level LONG Hello fellow traders,
Yesterday was one of the darkest days for some of you who invested in market and had high hopes and once the price gone over certain levels the machines started selling selling selling and who knows what Monday will bring? Maybe on Sunday some salvation will come from USA! hahaha! Anyway, trading and chart wise- this is a major support zone for sp500 5000!! and look how the price has hit the trend line and look how the RSI is oversold and look...this is a Daily chart! I like going from daily to 4h and 1h intervals, Daily oversold is a good signal for a reversal at least for NOW, correction faze to 5400 perhaps and will see, for now my bet is on the Long position with the target 5,400
This is not a trading advise, just an idea and wait!- s/l advisable here I would say below 4650 being win to loss ratio slightly above 1:1
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading?
Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead.
I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart.
Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------
4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th.
Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account.
Best of luck in all your trades.
Cheers!
Wall Street's Difficulties: How It Impacts the Forex Market
Hello, I am Andrea Russo, Forex Trader, and today I want to discuss how the recent difficulties on Wall Street are influencing the global forex market.
The Storm on Wall Street
In recent days, Wall Street has experienced significant turbulence, with major indices sharply declining. This scenario has been driven by several factors, including:
Rising Interest Rates in the U.S.: The Federal Reserve, concerned about persistent inflation, has hinted at potential monetary tightening.
Geopolitical Tensions: Global uncertainties are unsettling investors and reducing risk appetite.
Signs of Economic Slowdown: Recent macroeconomic data have fueled fears of an imminent recession.
These elements have resulted in a decline in investor confidence, leading to heavy sell-offs in equity markets.
Effects on the Forex Market
The repercussions of this turbulence are already manifesting in the forex market. Here are the key implications:
Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The dollar has gained momentum as a safe-haven currency, particularly against emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.
Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Rising: These haven currencies have seen increased demand, drawing monetary flows.
Pressure on Emerging Market Currencies: Reduced risk appetite has triggered sell-offs in the major currencies of emerging markets.
What Should Forex Traders Do Now?
In such a volatile environment, it's crucial for traders to:
Analyze the Data: Keep a close watch on U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve announcements.
Diversify Risk: Consider hedging strategies to reduce exposure to volatility.
Observe Safe Havens: Explore trading opportunities involving the yen and Swiss franc, which remain stable during uncertainty.
Reversal timeAs mentioned in my post earlier, we have seen the market pullback "https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/EbczOtHO-Major-pullback-from-April/"
I now expect the buyers to start coming in and we will start to see a reversal of the overall market soon, probably even April itself. But this is when you start buying stocks and indices rather than wait for exact bottom.
