Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5000/5030/5785/5815 Iron Condor... for a 10.45 credit.
Comments: High IVR. After having taken small profit on the setup I put on before "Liberation Day," back in with a more symmetric setup in a higher IV environment.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.55
Max Profit: 10.45
ROC at Max: 53.45%
50% Max: 5.23
ROC at 50% Max: 26.73%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test, manage at 21 DTE.
SPX trade ideas
SP500,A BIRTH OF A NEW TREND (FURTHER DECLINE EXCEPTED)Sp500 has given birth a to new trend after forming bullish pattern from our previous analysis to give us ATH of 6k. It has form another bearish reversal pattern on weekly timeframe. We might see further declines in coming weeks. Overall target $4700 a $43,00
"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5780) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 30m timeframe (5700) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5860 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
"US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day or Swing)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5700) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 2H timeframe (5600) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5850 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
"US500 / SPX500" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction.
And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped.
Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis.
If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit.
Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Geopolitics, Rates, and Risk: Why 1987 Is Back on the RadarThe current mix of geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and fragile market sentiment brings to mind the setup ahead of October '87.
Without stabilizing signal, especially from the U.S. administration this weekend, the risk of a sharp correction is not negligible.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 4, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index experienced lower openings, completing the Outer Index Dip at 5403, as highlighted in the previous week's Daily Chart analysis. This development lays a foundation for a potential decline targeting the Outer Index Dip at 5026, with the possibility of further extension to the subsequent target of the next Outer Index Dip, 4893. An upward momentum may materialize at either completed target level, with the primary objective being the Mean Resistance level of 5185.
S&P 500 Market Analysis 04/05/2025The S&P 500 is currently undergoing a significant correction, having dropped approximately 17% from its all-time high. This decline coincides with renewed policy rhetoric from the U.S. President, particularly surrounding trade tariffs, which has historically triggered market uncertainty. This scenario echoes past events, where similar pullbacks followed a peak in parabolic price action. Notably, in 2022, after a parabolic surge, the S&P 500 dropped 27%, and in 2018, the index saw a 21% decline after a similar spike. These historical patterns suggest that the longer and more extended the parabolic rise, the deeper the eventual correction tends to be.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently acted as a reliable support level during past downturns. In both 2018 and 2022, the S&P 500 retraced down to this EMA before finding a bottom and beginning its recovery. Currently, the 200-week EMA sits around the 4,740 level, which could serve as a critical support zone that the index may attempt to retest before any meaningful rebound occurs.
In addition to this technical level, the SilentTrader Indicator—a proprietary tool analyzing multiple timeframes—has signaled bearish momentum across all major timeframes. The indicator is showing selling signals on the weekly, daily, and intraday charts, reinforcing the idea that the market remains under heavy downward pressure. The alignment of these bearish signals across multiple timeframes suggests that the S&P 500 could continue to face selling pressure in the near term.
Considering these factors, the current correction appears to be far from over. With macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for continued tariff-related concerns, a retest of the 4,740 level—or possibly even lower—remains a likely scenario. Traders and investors should remain cautious and consider tightening risk management strategies until there is a clearer indication of stabilization or a trend reversal.
#SP500 #stockmarket #forextrading #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #ethereum
SPX 1D 200 EMA Retest? As the 9&21W EMAs cross and a new local low printing after a SFP top, could the S&P500 be getting its first major correction since Jan 2022?
From a TA standpoint this kind of setup looks to be high probability with good R:R for the bears. Targeting the 1W 200 EMA is the most logical area as it remains major support and whenever tested holds strong.
From a bulls standpoint this is worrying but could be rectified with a reclaim of the 9&21 EMAs preventing a "death cross" from there acceptance above the high would be the next step to maintain the rally.
Fundamentals play a major role and the geopolitical world shows no signs of slowing down, perhaps the tariffs angle is introducing uncertainty in American companies? Or the index is just exhausted from 2.5 years of climbing? Either way the chart is an interesting one to monitor for now.
S&P 500 (SPX) 1M next week?The S&P 500 is pulling back from a key resistance after completing a bearish AB=CD pattern on the monthly chart. Price action suggests a potential correction toward the 4662–4700 zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which may serve as a key area for bullish reaccumulation. Momentum indicators show bearish divergence, hinting at a cooling rally.
Fundamentally, the index remains supported by strong earnings in tech and AI sectors, but risks persist from elevated interest rates, sticky inflation, and potential Fed policy shifts. A pullback into the 4662–4700 zone may offer a medium-term setup for continuation toward 5198 and potentially 5338. A breakdown below 4662 would invalidate the bullish structure and shift focus to lower Fibonacci levels.
When is the party over?Inflation ticking back up. Unemployment increasing. Dollar increasing. Geopolitical turmoil. Contentious elections. And yet the market continues to grind up. But when will the music stop? When is the party over?
I'm not making a call to mark the top here but this is setting up for a giant fall. We could continue to grind up to 6000 point, there's no doubt that bulls remain in control. However, the strength of the move up is weak. History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. Looking back at the historical data, bearish divergences on the Weekly always result in a large pullback.
I am expecting a pull back soon. I do believe a large correction is brewing and I don't want to be caught on the wrong side of the trade.
What am I doing about it? I still think the path of least resistance is to the upside, bulls remain control. So I am using trailing stop losses, taking profits on many of my positions. And looking to open shorts upon weakness. Waiting for confirmation of my bias, especially with a very important couple of weeks of earnings.
Stay tuned, manage your risk and don't let greed get the better of you!
Not financial advice.
SPX, What is next? Trump knows best!Just putting my personal view based on market information and minimum speculation.
I hope my warning of a crash in my last post was useful
I rely heavily on volume profile and market geometry and of course my indicator( check it out: HiLo Ema squeeze bands)
I expect the market to fall to 4820 (about 61.8% fib level) to fill some volume gap, also 2022 peak, do a small a-b-c bottom and then rally back up to say 5450 ish, if some good news is heard. This would be just a bear rally
But I believe, Trump has opened a pandora's box and the market is still not aware of the full impact of it, or maybe it did realise and hence the crash
16% of USA budget is used for interest payment. If inflation rises and China and Japan keep selling treasuries, the bonds will go down. Not to speak of some major hedge funds like Citadel and banks holding trillions in treasury bond would increase their unrealised losses on bonds. But the stock market fall will force them to liquidate the bonds realise the loss, unless Fed buys the bonds back, which they will as always. That would be QE and the next bull run will begin. The banks have been holding the bonds since covid. Remember Silico Valley bank going burst! That was a sample.
Fed has managed to clicked the can down the road long, but Trumps policies will send the can in Fed's face
A financial liquidity baby seeded by Fed and Biden Adm during covid is about to take birth soon as financial crisis
I am bearish till Fed announces QE
SPX500 Analysis – Has the Bottom Formed or Is More Downside?Hello traders,
Taking a closer look at the SPX500 and discussing whether the market has found a bottom or if there’s further downside ahead. From a technical perspective, price action is still showing signs of weakness, with critical support levels yet to be tested.
Key Technical Points:
• Bearish Expansion: A key swing high formed before price broke structure with a volatile bearish move, ending a year-long bullish pattern.
• Confluence Support at 4779: This level aligns with the value area high, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, and a high timeframe support zone.
• Next Target if Support Fails: If 4779 is lost, the point of control (POC) becomes the next downside target.
The recent bearish expansion suggests a shift in market sentiment. Although the 4779 region could offer a technical bounce, it is crucial to wait for confirmation. A strong reaction from this level may provide short-term relief, but without follow-through, it could be short-lived.
If this support zone breaks, we may see an accelerated move towards the POC, which would confirm a deeper correction. This would likely spill over into other global markets, potentially triggering a broader risk-off environment.
Given the current high volatility, it’s essential to let the market find equilibrium before making any major trading decisions. Patience and precision are key—wait for the next move to be backed by volume and structure before stepping in.
are we repeating 1987 and going to 4000 on S&P?Though the correction and market reaction was expected for macro economic conditions, did not anticipate such severe and sharper decline. This doesn't mimic regualr circumstances like healthy and organic correction, rather it mimic covid and 1987 flash crash.
I started to feel now we may repeat 1987 thus may see more downtrend next week or two and slowly world comes to adjust to new conditions and prepare. This could be slow recovery thereafter hardly touching 5100 on S&P by Christmas
401(k)s: A Safe Bet or a Rigged Game?In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped 57% at its lowest, wiping out decades of savings for millions of Americans. People who were 5–10 years from retirement lost everything overnight—and they had no way out.
And here’s the problem:
• 401(k)s are heavily stock-weighted, especially those “target-date” funds that adjust based on age—but not fast enough in a crash.
• No active protection. These funds don’t hedge, use stop-losses, or rotate into cash. If the market dumps, you’re just riding it down.
• No control or transparency. Most people don’t even know what they’re invested in unless they dig deep into fund holdings.
It’s no coincidence that the same Wall Street firms managing 401(k)s make money shorting crashes or getting bailouts, while regular people are told to “just wait it out.” Sure, that might work over decades, but what if you’re close to retirement? Or just don’t want to wait 10 years for a recovery?
The Harsh Reality
• 401(k)s aren’t really optional. They’re the main retirement plan in the U.S., so most people are forced into them with few alternatives.
• Most people don’t actively manage them. They pick a default option, get put into a target-date fund, and hope for the best. That’s where the “sheep” feeling comes in.
• You can’t easily exit. There are penalties for withdrawing early, so in a crash, you’re locked in like a prisoner or financial refugee, while the “big boys” cash out first.
It’s not a scam in a legal sense—but it is a system that favors the knowledgeable and punishes the passive. Those who don’t study markets, adjust their portfolios, or take active control end up paying the price. And sadly, that’s the majority.
S&P500 target 4550The markets are spooked by the recent Trump Administration Tariff's. Such political mayhem harks back to the Smoot Hawley Tariffs of 1930 , when Protectionism plummeted the world into chaos.
Fear and Panic has gripped investors. The last week has seen a rapid decline of this index, with the market falling over 5% in the recent trading session. To date the market is down 17.5 percent from the high of 6147. It is likely we will pass into Bear Market territory in the coming week.
From a technical perspective , last week was the largest bear candle in the last 5 years and the RSI has moved into the oversold zone.
If we look to the last Bear Market of 2022, the 200 Week MAV acted as support. This may be an area again, where the market forms a low. This would coincide with a 70.5 percentile Fibonacci retracement.
So 4550 is the updated target for the current move down.
S&P 500 Breakdown: 4,790 Worst-Case Scenario in Play?Last week, I warned in this post that if sentiment worsened, the S&P 500 could head toward 4,790 as a worst-case scenario. Fast forward to today, and the index has officially lost the 5,149 support level, opening the door for further downside.
What Just Happened?
📉 Key Support Broken: The market just lost 5,149 (1.0 Fib retracement), which was a major line in the sand.
📉 Momentum Still Bearish: With no strong bounce, sellers remain in control, making 4,790 - 4,800 the next major target.
📉 Next Supports:
4,800 zone: A critical psychological level and my worst-case scenario target.
4,761 (1.618 Fib): A key confluence area for a potential bounce.
If the S&P 500 fails to reclaim 5,149 quickly, then the next downside targets are:
4,800 – A major area I highlighted last week.
4,761 – Aligns with the 1.618 Fib extension, adding confluence.
What Needs to Happen for a Rebound?
For bulls to take back control, the index must reclaim at least 5,149, or risk continued selling. A failed bounce could accelerate the move lower.
🚨 I called 4,790 as a worst-case target last week.
S&P 500SPX
SPX
Trump 's US Stock is seeking a inverted Symmetry Trend to Biden's stock graph.
But For Worst case,
SPX may flung to Gap filling till $ 4200.
Yesterday, China released its anti-US Tariff policy.
If Europe add a new hostile anti-US Tariff policy,
The Great Recession will start.
Don't buy the dip.
Just sleep till Trump's surrender.