SPX trade ideas
Inside candle but not redI posted that we could have a potential red inside candle by the end of the month. In this case it was an inside candle but was green which is just consolidation. Lets see how it goes this month. Has to close red inside to be a reversal.
September Weakness and Potential DeclineSeptember Weakness and Potential Decline
The chart clearly shows a historical pattern of weakness in September for the S&P 500 index. Based on this seasonal trend, there's a strong possibility that the index will continue to decline throughout the month.
Historical September Performance
Looking at the seasonality data at the bottom of the chart, we can see that September has consistently been a challenging month for the S&P 500:
The average September performance over the years shown is -1.83%
In recent years (2020-2023), September returns have been negative, ranging from -4.76% to -9.34%
Current Market Situation
The chart indicates that the index has already begun to show signs of weakness:
There's a visible downward trend in the most recent candlesticks
A red arrow pointing downwards suggests a bearish outlook
Projected Decline
Given the historical data and current market conditions, it's reasonable to expect:
A continued downward trajectory throughout September
A potential decline that could mirror the average September performance of -1.83%, or possibly more severe, considering recent years' trends
Consistency of Decline
The consistency of the decline may follow the pattern observed in previous years:
A steady, gradual decrease rather than sharp drops
Possible short-term fluctuations, but maintaining an overall downward trend
It's important to note that while historical patterns and current indicators suggest a bearish outlook for September, market conditions can change rapidly due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Traders should always consider multiple data points and remain vigilant to potential market shifts.
Bear Pressure Remains (Key Levels to Watch - SPX, NDX)Tuesday - Bear Candle breaking support
Wednesday - weak re-test of the support (now becoming resistance)
Bearish pressure remains firm with key levels lower on the major indexes.
Near-term bearish until price proves otherwise. Taking stops, protecting profits and managing hedges.
JPY "unwinding" is also back on the radar. I'll be watching the JPY strength and Nikkei correlation. I still hold long FXY through 2026 (call options)
Thanks for watching!!!
S&p 500 for shortTwo equal highs on the weekly time frame. We expect a sell to the downside to the weekly trendline.
SPX Analysis for Today: What’s Next After Yesterday’s Big Drop?Wow! Yesterday was brutal for us all on SPX with a major bearish move that probably left a lot of traders scratching their heads. So, what’s the game plan for today? Let’s break it down.
1. Technical Picture After the Drop
Yesterday’s sell-off took SPX to key levels, and now we’re sitting in some interesting territory. The 5550-5570 range is what we’re watching closely—this could act as support, but if it cracks, we might be heading lower, potentially toward 5500.
On the flip side, if buyers step in, we could see a bounce back toward 5550, which was previous support but might now act as resistance. Traders should keep an eye on whether we break out of that range or get rejected.
2. The News That Matters
A lot of today’s action depends on what’s going on in the broader world. Are we getting any new data on inflation or jobs? If inflation numbers come in hot, the market could get nervous again, anticipating more rate hikes from the Fed. But if the data is lighter, we might get a relief rally after yesterday’s beatdown.
Also, keep an eye on any big headlines—geopolitical tension, tech earnings, or even Fed commentary. All of these could be wildcards that drive sentiment today.
3. Sentiment Check
We’ve got VIX (the fear gauge) pretty elevated right now, so people are still pretty nervous. Watch for whether that calms down today—if it does, we might get some relief in SPX. But if VIX stays high or climbs further, brace yourselves for more volatility.
The Bottom Line:
If today’s news stokes more fear, we could see another push lower. But if the market takes a breather, we might get a short-term bounce. Either way, buckle up—it’s going to be another interesting session!
Fed Rate Cut, Ultra Bullish? Yes But...Are we there yet?
Positive news, positive developments, a bullish market... The FED will cut rates soon, is this an ultra-bullish development for the stocks and Cryptocurrency market?
The market moves in cycles and grows with or without the FED.
In 2023 the FED was raising rates and the stocks and Cryptocurrency market experienced growth the entire year.
Long-term, cuts to the FED rates is super bullish but watch-out for the short-term.
Here is how it works:
👉 Since the FED is going to cut rates soon, traders and market participants take profits before/during the event. They capitalize on the fact that the general populace see this as a bullish development (thanks to the media which is already in a campaign to mislead everybody) and use it to sell at high prices. There is always a major crash/correction before the change in FED policies takes place.
I repeat, the financial markets tend to crash before/during the event.
So, instead of ultra-bullish, expect a major crash all across. After the crash, we will have bullish for sure.
Just remember, all the markets were growing when the rates were the highest; Bitcoin grew from November 2022 through March 2024; the stock market is at all-time highs and has been growing for years with interest rates at their highest.
When the cuts become real, this will be a major bearish event.
Just in case you are reading the news, because they are telling it in reverse.
Protect your capital. Stay safe.
Namaste.
SPX500 SELLSLooks like further pressure sell offs this week. Entered on pull back to further anticipate price to drive down
Tech sell-off dents risk appetite US stock indices marked the end of summer and the first full trading session of September by closing sharply lower yesterday. All the majors came under sustained selling pressure, with the biggest losses suffered by tech. The NASDAQ 100 fell 3.3%, closely followed by mid-caps, with the Russell 2000 shedding 3.1%. Market darling NVIDIA slumped 9.5%, taking its total decline from its all-time high back in June to 23.3%. Have we seen peak-NVIDIA, or is this simply a healthy correction? Much depends on growth in generative AI, along with the ability of other chip makers to offer up some competition. Stock indices closed near their lows last night, not helped by yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, which, while up on last month’s reading, was below expectations, and remains firmly in contraction territory. The selling has continued this morning with the S&P 500 briefly breaking back below 5,500. Last week, the index came frustratingly close to taking out its record high of 5,670 from mid-July, shortly before the stock market plunge from a month ago. That sell-off was triggered by the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry-trade, followed by an unexpectedly weak US Non-Farm Payroll number. The latter suggested that the US economy may be slowing faster than anticipated, just after a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting left the key Fed Funds rate unchanged. Fast forward a month and equity markets had recovered most of their early August losses, until yesterday. And this Friday sees the latest update on Non-Farm Payrolls, with the next Fed rate decision to come less than a fortnight later. There is some nervousness out there as investors prepare for the payroll release. But before that, we have the latest JOLTS Job Openings update this afternoon, with weekly Unemployment Claims and the monthly ADP report tomorrow. Further weakness in the labour market won’t raise the probabilities of a rate cut this month, as that already stands at 100%. But it could shift the dial as far as expectations for 25 or 50 basis points is concerned. If this week brings evidence of a sharp slowdown in the labour market, then that will increase the probability of a 50 basis points cut. While the market has been pricing in aggressive rate cuts since last October, they may not react favourably to a large reduction, as this could signal problems for the US economy going forward.
US500: Bears Are Taking Control of Prices - Harmonic PatternUS500: Bears Are Taking Control of Prices - Harmonic Pattern
The US500 recently tested its all-time high zone, last reached on July 15, 2024.
The initial price reaction was notably strong and bearish, increasing the likelihood of a more significant bearish movement.
What’s next?
You can watch the analysis for further details
Thank you:)
#S&P500 $GSPC Falls 2.12% to 5528.93The Magnificent Seven tech stocks are no longer outperforming the rest of the 493 stocks in the S&P500. Shares in Nvidia plunged nearly 10% on the first trading day after the Labour Day weekend holiday wiping nearly 300 billion dollars off the firm’s value in the largest single-day value drop in US stock market history.
US stock futures (#DJI , #IXIC, #GSPC) edge lower on Tuesday. Markets are looking ahead to the avalanche of economic data due out this week, including August's jobs report this Friday, September 6.
Crucial jobs report kicks off a new month:
The August jobs report, due out on Friday, will headline economic releases in the week ahead as investors look to see whether the signs of slowing in the July jobs report were overstated or an early warning of a broader slowdown.
Updates on job openings and private wage growth are also on the schedule, as well as activity checks from the services and manufacturing sectors.
(The S&P hadn't cleared the July high - trading in a narrow range - but this changed today with an clear undercut of this range, and a close at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs support. It would be a good time for a bounce, particularly if there is a bullish candlestick like a dragonfly doji or bullis hammer at these moving averages. Technicals are net bullish).
SP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEADSP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEAD
The SP500 is finishing drawing the head of the SHS figure with this double maximum. If in these days it does not manage to break the resistance, the fall can be quite steep to go looking for the 4800 in the first instance and continue going down to 3600, base of the previous shoulder.
If the SP500 manages to break the resistance, this figure would be cancelled.
As always, it is better to act with a head and do things at the right time.
S&P500 resist 5600An area of interest for bears to start selling. Economic data seems to be turning south.
S&P 500: New ATH? 59% Chance!Economic Resilience: The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with robust job growth and consumer spending supporting overall market performance.
Technological Advancements: Ongoing innovations in AI and other tech sectors are driving productivity gains and creating new growth opportunities for many S&P 500 companies.
Corporate Earnings: Many companies are reporting better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong business performance and potential for further market gains.
Global Recovery: As international markets stabilize, U.S. multinationals within the S&P 500 are benefiting from increased global demand and improved supply chains.
Monetary Policy: While the Federal Reserve remains vigilant, there are indications that the interest rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end, potentially providing a more favorable environment for equities.
Using the X1X2 strategy, I'll be looking for optimal entry points for long positions.
Let's dive into the comprehensive top-down analysis together.
12M:
2W:
3H:
Please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
S&P 500 Bearish Trade Plan 3-4 weeks
Overview:
The S&P 500 is showing a potential bearish setup over the next 3-4 weeks based on fundamental economic data, seasonal trends, and market positioning. Combined with technical analysis, this trade plan outlines a short bias, with key profit targets at significant market levels.
Fundamentals:
Several key factors suggest potential downward pressure on the S&P 500 in the near term:
Inflation Concerns:
Inflation continues to remain above central bank targets, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance.Rising interest rates and reduced liquidity in the markets have traditionally led to reduced corporate profitability and weaker stock market performance.
US Consumer Spending:
Recent data has shown signs of slowing consumer demand as rising interest rates and inflation weigh on disposable incomes. This weakening consumer sentiment could negatively impact corporate earnings, leading to selling pressure in the equity markets.
Global Macro Factors:
Global supply chain issues, geopolitical tensions, and the potential for further economic slowdowns in Europe and China could exacerbate downside risk in equities. The S&P 500’s exposure to global markets could act as a drag on performance.
Earnings Season:
Many companies are adjusting their forward earnings estimates lower due to weaker demand and increased costs. This negative earnings guidance could contribute to further downside in the index.
Seasonality:
Historically, September is one of the weakest months for the S&P 500, and this trend has been amplified in recent years. Here’s a closer look at the data:
5-Year Performance: Over the last five years, September has seen an average decline of -49.9788 points in the S&P 500. This is a significant drop compared to other months.
2-Year Performance: The two-year average shows a massive decline of -180.7979 points in September, reflecting the market's extreme vulnerability during this period.
These seasonal trends suggest that traders tend to adopt a risk-off sentiment during September, likely due to various macroeconomic concerns, earnings reports, and upcoming policy announcements.
The historical performance implies that we should expect a bearish bias for the rest of September, with potential for recovery in October and November, which are typically stronger months for the S&P 500.
COT Data (Commitment of Traders Report):
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report supports the bearish outlook, as market participants are positioning for potential downside:
Commercial Traders (Smart Money):
Net Short Position: Commercial traders, typically hedgers and large institutions, are heavily net short with a -29,163 net position. This indicates they expect downside risk and are hedging against a drop in the market.
Large Speculators:
Speculators, often trend-following hedge funds, hold a significant short position as well, with a net short of -81,908. This reflects an alignment with commercial traders and suggests that sentiment among speculative traders is also bearish.
The combination of commercial hedgers and speculative traders holding bearish positions is a strong confirmation of the downside risk.
Technical Analysis:
Key Levels & Market Structure:
Weak High:
The recent price action shows the S&P 500 forming a weak high near the 5,700 zone. This failure to create a higher high suggests that the bullish momentum is losing strength, indicating a potential reversal.
Premium Zone (Resistance):
The price has rejected the premium zone between 5,650 - 5,700, signaling that the market may struggle to break higher. The rejection suggests that sellers have stepped in, adding further pressure to the downside.
Break of Structure (BOS):
The Break of Structure (BOS) earlier in the chart confirms a shift from a bullish to a bearish trend. This structure break strengthens the case for continued downside momentum.
Equilibrium (Fair Value):
The equilibrium level around 4,935 represents a natural profit target for short positions. This level is key as it reflects the balance between buyers and sellers and is where the price could consolidate or rebound after a bearish move.
Discount Zone (Support):
The discount zone between 4,164 and 4,701 acts as a strong support level. Should the bearish trend accelerate, this area would be an ideal target for taking profits or watching for potential bullish reversal signals.
Trade Setup:
Entry:
Short the S&P 500 around the current price level (5,650 - 5,700), as the price has rejected the premium zone and formed a weak high, signaling the potential for further downside.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop-loss above the premium zone at 5,700 to protect against a breakout higher.
Target 1:
Equilibrium zone around 4,935.9 for the first profit target.
Target 2:
If bearish pressure continues, hold the position towards the discount zone between 4,164 - 4,701, where stronger buying interest is likely to emerge.
Risk Management:
Risk/Reward Ratio: Aim for a 1:6 risk-to-reward ratio, given the significant downside potential.
Position Size: Limit risk per trade to 2-3% of your account balance to manage potential volatility.
S&P 500 - Fan Reversal Setting UpThe S&P 500 is forming a Base below the Supply Zone.
A Fan is apparent from the origin of the Rally. Three ascending trendlines connect to price action within the base.
The Fan reversal begins to set up once price crosses/breaks the 3rd trendline. Price action will be contained within the consolidation, with a possible false break
If you look to Volume and Momentum, both show a progressive divergence is in play and are bearish signs.
The trigger to short is a clear break of the Support Level at 5560.
The bias is for a small correction only (.382 fib), before a break to a new ATH.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Important Bearish Signal
US500 was consolidating for quite a long period of time around
the level of a current all-time high and formed a range.
After the release of the yesterday's US fundamentals, the Index dropped
and formed a high momentum bearish candle.
A daily candle closed below a support of the range, confirming its violation.
We can expect a bearish continuation lower now.
Next support - 5432
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Market 101:From the Drama King VIX to the Steady Eddie UtilitiesVolatility Index (VIX) - The Drama King
Let’s kick things off with the Volatility Index, aka the market’s drama king. It’s like that one friend who always makes a big deal out of nothing—spiking dramatically whenever the market so much as sneezes. Recently, it shot up faster than a caffeine-fueled trader on Monday morning, but now it’s calming down a bit, hovering around 20.73. Keep an eye on this guy—he’s always a sign of market anxiety like I said, the the fear gauge. If he starts climbing again, it might be time to batten down the hatches.
Utilities Sector (XLU) - The Steady Eddie
Moving on to the Utilities sector, which is the market’s equivalent of your reliable, always-on-time friend. XLU has been climbing steadily, but just like every other reliable person, it needs a break sometimes. It’s currently chilling around 76.20, looking like it’s taking a well-deserved breather. Nothing too exciting here, but that’s exactly what you want from Utilities—slow and steady wins the race.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) - The Wild Child
Now, let’s talk about ARKK—Cathie Wood’s wild child. This chart is like a rollercoaster at an amusement park: up, down, up, down, and sometimes you’re not sure if you should scream or cheer. After some wild moves, ARKK is sitting around 42.98, but don’t be surprised if it decides to take another loop-de-loop soon. Just remember to strap in and hold on tight.
Technology Sector (XLK) - The Overachiever
Next up, the Technology sector, which has been the market’s overachiever for quite some time. XLK had been climbing like it’s trying to win the market’s gold star, but recently it’s hit a bit of a speed bump, pulling back to 210.28. No worries though—this sector is like that student who’s always doing extra credit. It’ll likely bounce back in no time, probably while giving the rest of the market a lesson in resilience.
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) - The Big Spender
Finally, we’ve got the Consumer Discretionary sector, which is the market’s big spender. XLY has been on a shopping spree, but it looks like it might be hitting the credit limit soon. The chart shows some clear support around 184.61, but if it breaks below this, we might see some belt-tightening ahead. Keep an eye on it—everyone loves a spender until the bill comes due.
Summary: From the dramatic spikes of the VIX to the steady climb of Utilities, each of these charts has its own personality. Whether you’re dealing with the rollercoaster that is ARKK or the disciplined overachiever in Technology, there’s always something to learn from the market’s diverse cast of characters. Stay sharp, keep your sense of humour and energy, and remember: in the markets, as in life, it’s all about balance.
Likely Route For SPX Good day and or evening my fellow traders and followers!
Hope you all have been on the right side of the tracks with your trades so far and are well into profits $$$
I want to share with you what I believe is the continued route for SPX on the Oanda platform.
Once price breaks 5493 area, we need to see if we break through 5435.1 area. Next route on hit list brings us down to the beginning of a wide buy zone starting at 5299.5 to 5177.8. This would be the area we could see bulls step up and buy into. As time will tell how that plays out and if there would be enough bull participation to stop the selling.
Let the higher TF charts guide away any confusion regarding direction to take , just stick to trend if you use trading to pay your bills. Trickle out profits in percentages of at least 25 or higher at each resistance area to ensure cashflow.
Until next time, best of luck in all your trades $$$.
S&P outlook Using channel and fib extension to estimate the market top
- Idea - Not financial advice
US500 bullish analysisBull analysis for US500.
Curious to see if this expanding triangle wave (4) plays out. This count envisions a move above 5673.5 to the final wave to complete bull run off October 2022 low.
Count invalid below 5329.5.
Friday’s SPX Options Chain Already Priced in Today’s DropToday’s sharp 2.2% SPX decline wasn’t a surprise for those who looked closely at the options metrics after Friday’s spot price fakeout . Ahead of the long weekend, market participants priced in the downside with both short- and long-term options .
BEFORE TODAY OPEN
Put options were nearly twice as expensive as calls at equivalent Expected Move distances before Tuesday's open!
BEFORE TODAY CLOSE
While today’s drop has led to some call skew on weekly options, suggesting a short-term rebound , the long-term bearish sentiment remains intact.
Key unemployment data this week will be crucial for the market’s next move.
If you'd like to see the option chain metrics in your charts, be sure to check out our free demo script here:
