ArabianSimple idea to scalp spx short dated contracts.
Scalping through levels using the the help of fast and slow emaโs
SPX trade ideas
SPX Update - Good CPI Scenario worked outHello traders!
Today I update the idea I shared on 13th Aug.
On 13th Aug i highlighted 3 scenarios (1 on tradingview considering bad CPI, 2 on telegram considering mid and good CPIs)
SPX followed the bullish scenario (green) - after CPI Aug release.
Market is really weird, personally I think that Inflation cuts will lead to lower levels if 50bps (because it would mean that US economy is really bleeding, bearish short term) - while would lead to a full bullmarket if 25pbs.
Right now we are holding and hedging position on BTC - which replicates SPX movements.
Buy Spot at 55235$ - Short at 60465$
Waiting for retest + confirmation to close the "wrong" alignment. - Saving our convenient buy (and planning others at lower levels) is our highest priority.
Send a DM for private channel.
How to Optimize Your Investments and Navigate Economic SeasonsThe economy operates in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, known as business cycles or economic cycles. These cycles play a fundamental role in shaping economic activity, employment, and investment decisions. In this article, we will explore the different phases of the business cycle, relate them to the seasons of the year, and discuss how investors and businesses can navigate these cycles effectively.
๐ต๐๐ท๐ฐ๐ ๐ธ๐ ๐ฐ ๐ฑ๐๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด?
A business cycle refers to the fluctuation of economic activity over a period, encompassing periods of growth and decline. It is measured through changes in key economic indicators such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), employment, consumer spending, and industrial production.
Business cycles typically follow a regular pattern, starting with a phase of expansion, followed by a peak, a period of contraction or recession, and eventually a trough, after which the economy recovers and the cycle begins anew.
๐ต๐ฑ๐๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ฐ๐ฝ๐ณ ๐๐ท๐ด ๐๐ด๐ฐ๐๐พ๐ฝ๐ ๐พ๐ต ๐๐ท๐ด ๐๐ด๐ฐ๐
Each phase of the business cycle can be compared to a season of the year, which provides a helpful way to visualize the economic conditions at play:
Spring (Recovery) : After the trough (winter), the economy enters a phase of recovery. Like spring, it's a time of renewal, with growth resuming and businesses beginning to thrive again. Employment rises, consumer confidence improves, and investment increases.
Summer (Expansion) : The economy reaches its full strength during the expansion phase. Just like summer brings warmth and energy, this phase brings rising consumer confidence, employment, and production. Companies grow, and investments yield high returns.
Autumn (Weakening) : As the cycle peaks, the economy starts showing signs of weakening, much like the cooling of autumn. Consumer spending and business growth slow down, and inflation may rise. The peak signals that the economy is at its maximum potential, and a slowdown or contraction may follow.
Winter (Contraction or Recession) : In winter, the economy enters a recession, characterized by declining economic activity, falling production, and rising unemployment. Just as winter halts natureโs growth, a recession slows down economic growth. This is the time when businesses may suffer losses, and consumer confidence weakens.
๐ต๐ธ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ ๐พ๐ต ๐ฑ๐๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐พ๐ฝ ๐ณ๐ธ๐ต๐ต๐ด๐๐ด๐ฝ๐ ๐๐ด๐ฒ๐๐พ๐๐
Business cycles affect various sectors of the economy differently. Some sectors, like consumer discretionary and industrials, tend to perform well during expansions but suffer during recessions. Others, such as utilities and consumer staples, may be more resilient during downturns, as they provide essential goods and services.
For example:
Technology and Manufacturing : These sectors are highly sensitive to business cycles and tend to flourish during periods of expansion due to increased consumer and business spending.
Healthcare and Utilities : These sectors often remain stable during recessions because demand for healthcare and essential services remains constant.
Crypto Sector:
SP500:
๐ต๐ฝ๐ฐ๐
๐ธ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ถ ๐ฑ๐๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ ๐ฐ๐ ๐ฐ๐ฝ ๐ธ๐ฝ๐
๐ด๐๐๐พ๐
Investors can use knowledge of the business cycle to adjust their portfolios. During expansion phases, growth stocks and cyclical industries may offer better returns.
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off Investing in Different Business Cycle Phases
During periods of economic expansion (summer), the environment is often referred to as "risk-on." Investors are more willing to take risks because economic growth drives higher returns on riskier assets, such as equities, growth stocks, or emerging markets. As consumer confidence, business spending, and investments increase, the potential rewards from higher-risk investments become more appealing.
Example of risk-on and off of cryptocurrency
Example of risk-on and off of Stock Market
However, during periods of economic contraction or recession (winter), investors typically shift to a "risk-off" strategy. In this phase, they seek to protect their capital by moving away from high-risk assets and toward lower-risk investments like government bonds, blue-chip stocks, or cash. The focus shifts to preserving wealth, and risk-taking is minimized or eliminated.
Investors may use leading and lagging indicators to anticipate where the economy is headed. Leading indicators, such as stock market performance or consumer confidence, tend to signal changes before the economy as a whole moves. Lagging indicators, like unemployment or corporate profits, confirm trends after they occur.
๐ต๐ถ๐พ๐
๐ด๐๐ฝ๐ผ๐ด๐ฝ๐ ๐ฟ๐พ๐ป๐ธ๐ฒ๐ธ๐ด๐ ๐ฐ๐ฝ๐ณ ๐ฑ๐๐๐ธ๐ฝ๐ด๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐
Governments often intervene to smooth out the extremes of business cycles through fiscal and monetary policy. During recessions, governments may implement stimulus packages, cut taxes, or increase spending to boost demand. Central banks may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing and investment.
Conversely, during periods of rapid expansion and inflationary pressure, governments may raise taxes or cut spending, while central banks might increase interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating.
๐ต๐ฒ๐พ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐๐ธ๐พ๐ฝ
Business cycles are a natural part of economic activity, influencing everything from consumer spending to corporate profitability and investment strategies. By understanding the phases of the business cycle (or seasons of the economy) and their impact on various sectors, investors and businesses can better position themselves to navigate economic fluctuations.
Whether the economy is expanding or contracting, being aware of the current phase of the business cycle helps guide decisions, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
SPXBe careful
T= 4600
Be careful
The relative strength index (RSI) is a popular momentum oscillator introduced in 1978.
The RSI provides technical traders with signals about bullish and bearish price momentum, and it is often plotted beneath the graph of an assetโs price.
An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
The RSI line crossing below the overbought line or above oversold line is often seen by traders as a signal to buy or sell.
The RSI works best in trading ranges rather than trending markets.
SPX - Bullish CluesGapped up to start the week and its another gap up today.
We'll obviously have to see this develop to have an idea of whether this bounce will have any strength
But significant pivots often happen with higher time frame gaps such as a weekend gap as we had yesterday.
Notice that the previous two bottoming pivots began with a gap up on the week chart.
This is a little clue that this may be a significant pivot forming.
The bounce has come between the 0.382 and 0.5 retracement.
This is ideal ratio of a bullish recovery.
We'll see how this develops ๐ง.
Not advice
S&P500Hello traders, I think the price has reached an important area and has the ability to fall from this area.
If SP500 allows me to trade according to my trading plan, I will exit the trade with a reward 2 or stop loss.
Have a good week
SPX500,,,H2,,, UPDATEWaiting for breakout
It can be the end of the correction after touching the S/R area. Based on my view, passing out of 5500 can be a green light for new buying positions on stocks.
Although, the chart is very close to an all-time high and in these cases, the market has been fluctuated and the risk is a little high. Nevertheless, I'm going to buy some after a good confirmation of over 5500.
S&P 500 Eyes Uptrend Ahead of CPI Inflation Data ReleaseS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading above the pivot line of 5453, with potential Uptrend targets of 5491 and 5526.
However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5453 and 5491 until a breakout occurs.
A sustained move above 5491 would likely support a rise towards 5526 and potentially 5573. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5453 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5460
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5460
Expected Trading Range: 5453 - 5526
Trend: Uptrend while above 5453
SPX Daily bounce underway?Price abruptly started weekly consolidation after failing the bull flag.
I expect the price to continue bouncing until we find a daily lower high.
For the bounce to start, surpassing the previous day high at 5,487 is a must.
Can we hold the last week low at 5,386? otherwise weekly consolidation will continue.
SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (โCompanyโ, โweโ) by a third-party provider (โTFA Global Pte Ltdโ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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240910 Market OutlookThe SP:SPX market turns sluggish with the last day closing price is within the prior day candlestick.
Most indicators show mixed signals on the daily chart:
- Stochastic show strong divergence buy signal;
- RSI is neutral shuttling up and down around the level of 50 points;
- MACD Signal line show death cross of MACD line, while histogram of average size indicate medium falling power and may turn to positive. The latter need more observations.
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Major economic data release include the following statistics this week:
Inflation Rate (CPI) on Wednesday
ECB Rate Decision on Thu
PPI on Thu
Initial Jobless Claims on Thu
Michigan Consumer Sentiment on on Fri.
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Overall state of US economy is moderate that is no strong growth is on horizon, neither have no signs of recession. The 2024 is the year of negative real GDP growth rate in the US. There was a sign of weakening labor market last Friday. SP:SPX is relentless to disturbance and still clinging upward though, showing strong consumer confidence in late 2025.
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib.
Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib).
Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
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US500 Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,477.28.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5,392.64 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
[US Stock] The forecasting of SPX Index's price action The forecasting of SPX Index's price action on Sept 10th, 2024
Could price drop from here?S&P500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,498.75
1st Support: 5,392.64
1st Resistance: 5,562.88
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX500 Rebounds. Support Respected.SPX500 respected its weekly support line and reverses.
Expect more ascending movements from hereon:
Spotted 4027.0
SL at 3800
TAYOR.
S&P500: Rebounding on the 1D MA100.The S&P500 is recovering Friday's lost ground and turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.331, MACD = -24.550, ADX = 22.750). Even though it needs to overcome the Resistance pressure of the 1D MA50, this rebound gives a very positive note as it is being performed on the 1D MA100, which last time was a bounce point on April 19 2024. If the August 5th rebound was a HL of a Bullish Megaphone, then now the index is starting phase 2 of the new Bullish Wave, much like the 1D MA50 bounce of May 31st. We are bullish with TP = 6000, on the -0.618 Fibonacci level for a HH.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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$SPY $SPX 30min 35EMA is still resistance hereAMEX:SPY SP:SPX 30min 35EMA is still resistance here
All of last week the 35 EMA was a clear resistance and today on the pipe we did see a push back there. Our next support level is at the four hour 200 moving average and the top of the inflation cap from last month where we saw the gap up right before PPI and CPI. About the 35 EMA we do have the 50 day moving average in the one hour 200 moving average, however the momentum there is completely flat so if we get to that point I would say definitely stay neutral
Short trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Pair: SPX/USD
Time: 11:00 PM
Trade Type: Sellside trade idea
Time Frame: (15min TF)
Entry Level: 5543.1
Profit Level: 5402.8 (a 2.53% - 1403 PIPS)
Stop Level: 5558.6 (a 0.28% - 155 PIPS)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 9.05
Trade Idea:
This sellside trade on SPX/USD is set for late in the session on Tuesday, 3rd September 2024.
Mid term shortWe expect a drop in the price that broke the 200-hour moving average towards the main correction level of 38.2%, and if this level is broken, a decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is anticipated.
With the expectation of a 0.50-point rate cut from the FED in September starting to decrease to 0.25 points, we may see a correction movement in the U.S. stock markets overall.
Additionally, the recovery in the DXY and the breakout of the short-term downward channel also strengthen our expectation. We recommend setting the stop-loss level above the previous peak.
SPx - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Key Economic Data AwaitsS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading below the pivot level of 5454, with a potential downside target of 5412. However, the price remains in a consolidation phase between 5456 and 5412 until a breakout occurs. A sustained move above 5454 would likely support a rise towards 5490 and potentially 5526. Conversely, maintaining a position below 5454 would increase the likelihood of a move down to 5412.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5454
Resistance Levels: 5490, 5526, 5573
Support Levels: 5412, 5460, 5328
Expected Trading Range: 5471 - 5412
Trend: Short-term downtrend
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Monetary Policy Shift Anticipated Amid Key Economic Releases
With the economy in balance and inflation trending toward the 2% target, it is now seen as appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by lowering the target range for the federal funds rate.
Currently, U.S. rate futures indicate a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
In the coming week, the spotlight will be on the U.S. consumer inflation report for August. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor other key economic indicators, including the U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
US500 LONGUS100
LONG
PLEASE DONโT BE GREEDY
ENTRY POINT : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG POSITION
above red Line for SHORT POSITION
INSTRUCTIONS:
FOR risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X โค20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X โฅ 20
US500
LONG
ENTRY 5443
TP 5478 5520 5560 5600
SL 5380
like, boost, be followers
PLEASE DONโT BE GREEDY
