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Stock feedback loopStock market is a adaptive system or a stock, with feedback loops (for inflow, outflow function). Where nobody knows the outcome or future, but feedbacks (corrections or resistance) gives tells (makes inflows or outflows). Without a common leader. Economists think in models (price is the result of supply-demand, or inflow-outflow) that helps to explain system behavior (short term moves), but models are just ideas to explain complex world (models work until they dont). System thinkers study the stock not aggregate behavior . Looking at markets trough perspective of "eco system" helps better understand the drivers or moving forces?
FOREXCOM:SPX500Education
by citsvar
S&P 500 Coiled Beneath Key HighsAfter a wild and volatile summer, the S&P 500 finds itself in a tight range, coiled beneath all-time highs as we head into September—a month historically known for its weakness. The S&P 500’s recent behaviour suggests a potential breakout, but the question remains: which direction will it take? A Roller-Coaster Summer The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs in mid-July, fuelled by optimism surrounding strong corporate earnings and hopes for a resilient US economy. However, this euphoria was quickly followed by a near 10% correction in less than a month, rattling investor confidence. The sharp sell-off was a stark reminder of the market's inherent volatility, driven by concerns over interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, and the ever-present threat of inflation. Yet, as quickly as the market fell, buyers swooped in, leading to a swift V-shaped recovery. This rapid rebound brought the S&P 500 back towards its all-time highs, demonstrating the market’s resilience and the underlying strength of the current bull market. But, over the past two weeks, the S&P 500’s price action has been characterised by a tight range, forming the narrowest weekly range in over seven weeks for two consecutive weeks. This price compression has set the stage for what could be a significant move. S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The Nature of Price Compression Price volatility is often cyclical, and after a high-volatility summer marked by dramatic swings, the S&P 500 is experiencing a period of low-volatility price compression. This kind of behaviour—coiling within a narrow range—typically precedes a significant breakout, as the market builds up energy before releasing it in one direction or the other. The question is whether the breakout will align with the longer-term bullish trend or if we will see a reversal. The S&P 500’s dominant trend is undoubtedly bullish with the 50-day moving average comfortably above the 200-day moving average, indicating strong underlying momentum. Historically, price compression of this nature tends to resolve in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this case, points to a bullish breakout. However, the market’s memory of the sharp sell-off that occurred at the July highs could act as a psychological barrier, creating a potential battleground for bulls and bears around these levels. Seasonality: A Double-Edged Sword While the technical setup may appear bullish, it's crucial to consider the impact of seasonality. Historically, September has been the weakest month for the S&P 500, with the index falling by an average of 0.6% since 1945, according to data from CFRA. This seasonal weakness could be a headwind for the market, as investors often become more risk-averse after the summer and ahead of the final quarter of the year. On the other hand, November and December are typically strong months for the S&P 500, buoyed by the holiday season and year-end portfolio adjustments by institutional investors. If the market can navigate the choppy waters of September without a significant breakdown, the seasonal tailwinds in the final months of the year could provide the impetus needed to push the S&P 500 to new highs. Average S&P 500 Performance by Month Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500September – The Worst Month for the S&P 500 August was a turbulent month for the US stock market. On the 5th, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) experienced its largest daily drop since 2022, falling by 3%. However, the index ended August up by 3.7% and is now just 0.3% below its all-time high of around 5672 set in July. What can we expect in September? Historically, it is the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). Statistics show that the index has typically declined by an average of 1.1% in September. The month starts with a long weekend due to Labour Day in the US, but volatility is likely to increase as traders return from their holidays. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having tested the lower boundary of the channel on 5 August before returning to the upper half of the channel with a wide candle on 15 August (shown by the arrow). → The level of 5568, which showed signs of resistance at the end of July and early August, was broken to the upside on the 19th. This level, now "reinforced" by the median line of the channel, could serve as a base for bulls trying to set a new all-time high. If such an attempt occurs, it is possible that the price will reach the upper boundary of the channel, where resistance is expected. → The bears' attempt to lower the price on 28 August (second arrow) failed, further indicating that the bullish side has the upper hand. Thus, the start of the month looks promising, but the fundamental backdrop will be crucial. The key event for September is the Fed meeting on the 18th, where a 0.25% rate cut is anticipated – currently, the rate stands at a 23-year high of 5.5%. However, market sentiment may shift depending on the employment report for August, scheduled for release on 6 September. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
3
SPX Long: The Alternate CountMy July analysis in end July warning of an upcoming crash in S&P500 mentioned that there is one thing that I don't like about the previous count: The wave 4 is too short: only 1 week. I mentioned that there is an alternate count where the wave 3,4, and 5 are combined into a wave 3. But even that count will not change the projection that S&P is going down. Right now, given that the Aug crash happened, and my previous attempts at shorts all turn to losses, the subsequent recovery has shown that the possibility of the alternate being higher than the previous primary count, I have now activated the alternate count and swap it to be the primary. The updated count is now summarized as follows: 1. August crash is wave 4. 2. Since then, we are in a wave 5 up. Now, how will the wave 5 move? I think it will move up in September and maybe even October. The reason is beyond technical analysis but based on the Presidential cycle. In order for Kamala to win, September and October both HAVE to be up months.
SP:SPXLong
by yuchaosng
240902 Market OutlookThe ISM Manufacturing PMI has dropped below 50, indicating weak economic conditions in the US. Despite this, the S&P 500 has shown resilience, awaiting employment data released this week. In response to the deteriorating economic indicators, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at a potential rate cut this month. After experiencing a two-week adjustment in the latter part of July, the S&P 500 rebounded strongly in August. This recovery demonstrates robust investor confidence, with no signs of a contraction in the index.
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 1st —> Sept 6th)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw mixed movements in the stock markets as strength in consumer staples, energy, and financials helped offset weakness in discretionary and technology shares. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 **Market Overview:** The week began with consumer staples, energy, and financials providing support to the markets, counterbalancing the softness in discretionary and technology shares ahead of key earnings reports in those sectors. Oil prices rose early in the week as Israel responded to a Hezbollah attack from the North, and uncertainty over Libya’s production reemerged. However, crude prices fell back later in the week after a report suggested OPEC+ might proceed with a planned ‘gradual’ oil output increase starting in October. Gold prices continued to set new all-time highs, maintaining their recent outperformance over bitcoin. The S&P 500 encountered resistance around 5,600—a level approximately 20x average 2025 S&P earnings estimates, which moved up towards $275 following Nvidia and other companies' quarterly results. Stock indexes closed mixed for the week, with the S&P edging up 0.2%, the DJIA rising 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.9%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 0.2% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.9% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 0.9% **Economic Indicators:** Economic data this week supported the expectation of more central bank rate cuts next month: - **European CPI:** Preliminary German and French CPI fell below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since August 2021, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut from the ECB in September. - **US Durable Goods:** July data rebounded sharply as expected, but core capital goods (nondefense excluding aircraft) were disappointing, showing no monthly increase since April. - **Richmond Fed Index:** The August print was soft, contracting to a level not seen since the pandemic. - **PCE Inflation Data:** The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge did little to alter expectations for a September rate cut, while Q2 preliminary GDP and July personal consumption data remained solid. - **US Yield Curve:** The 2-10 spread moved closer to de-inverting, with just a few basis points separating it from positive territory. **Corporate News:** Earnings reports continued to be a major market driver, especially in the retail sector, which delivered mixed signals: - **Best Buy:** Exceeded earnings expectations despite posting its 11th consecutive quarter of negative US same-store sales, highlighting that consumers are seeking value but still willing to invest in new technologies. - **Dollar General:** Missed estimates and confirmed that lower-end consumers are struggling, with many running out of paychecks before month-end and relying on credit cards for basic needs. - **PDD (Temu-parent):** Shares were hit hard after the company reported that intensifying competition was pressuring revenue growth. - **Nvidia:** Beat earnings expectations again but saw a slightly more modest increase in guidance than usual, leading to a retracement in big tech stocks on Thursday. - **Marvell Technology:** Impressed investors with a strong earnings report and forecasted that custom silicon would become a significant revenue growth driver. - **Intel:** Reportedly considering a major restructuring, which could include spinning off its foundry business. - **Paramount:** The latest development in the ongoing acquisition saga saw the Edgar Bronfman Jr.-led consortium withdraw its proposal, clearing the way for Skydance to close the deal. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key events and data releases: - **U.S. Jobs Report** - **U.S. PMI Surveys** - **Fed Beige Book** - **Earnings Reports:** Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ), Dollar Tree ( NASDAQ:DLTR ), Dick’s Sporting Goods ( NYSE:DKS ), Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) - **Labor Day Holiday:** Markets will be closed on Monday As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
S&P500 - Week 35 Recap and Takeaways This week was full of twists and surprises in the stock market. We managed to execute three trades, all of which ended in profit, but there were some key lessons to carry forward into next week. Let's dive into the rollercoaster that was Week 35. 1. The Bulls Lost the Fight for a Breakout Our initial Plan A was geared toward a bullish breakout above the blue resistance level, with hopes of reaching a new all-time high (ATH). However, the market had other plans. As soon as the index dipped below the VWAPs with strong volume, our Plan B automatically kicked in. 2. Trade 1 - Initiating Plan B As we outlined last weekend, our backup plan was to look for a 4-star bearish setup between the key zones (blue and green). The idea was to enter a short trade if the RVOL was greater than 3 and the market dipped below VWAP1 and VWAP2, provided the risk/reward (R/R) ratio was in our favor at a minimum of 1.7. This setup unfolded perfectly on Monday. We entered the trade, but as the price paused at an R/R ratio of 1.5, we decided to take 50% off the table, move our SL to the entry level, and let the market decide the rest. Although we aimed for a TP2 at an R/R ratio of 2.5, the price didn't drop that low and started a comeback later in the day. When the intraday downtrend broke near the end of the session, we closed Trade 1, netting a realized R/R ratio (r) of 0.885. Given the shaky conditions, we were happy to walk away with clear signals and a modest profit. 3. Understanding R/R Ratio(e) vs. R/R Ratio(r) Both estimated (e) and realized (r) R/R ratios are crucial in trading. Success in trading isn't just about estimating potential gains but also about tracking what you actually realize. This distinction is vital, especially during back-testing, as it separates profitable traders from those who break even or worse. 4. Trade 2 - The Day Before NVIDIA’s Quarterly Report On Wednesday, NVIDIA released its quarterly report after the NY exchange closed, and the results fell short of market expectations. The day started below VWAP with high RVOL, which matched our criteria for another short trade. We again set our TP in two stages—TP1 at an R/R ratio of 1.5 and TP2 at 2.5, as the market confirmed a new intraday downtrend. This trade played out perfectly, with both the estimated and realized R/R ratios matching. Some might wonder why we closed the trade even with strong momentum. The answer lies in the green long-term bullish trend line. We placed our final TP just above this line, anticipating support in that area, which is exactly what happened. The market bounced back just before the end of the day, and we closed out the trade before NVIDIA’s report was released. The risk of holding on for more was simply too high. 5. Trade 3 - The Day After NVIDIA After NVIDIA’s report, the S&P 500 dipped below the long-term trend line during the Asian session, but by the time the London session began, the price was fighting back. With RVOL greater than 3 and the index reclaiming VWAP1 and VWAP2, we entered another short trade with an estimated R/R ratio greater than 1.7. This trade also hit both of our TPs, and we exited just as the market approached the blue resistance zone. 6. Were There More Setups This Week As we reviewed the week, we found that no additional trades aligned with our strategy. On Tuesday, the market bounced back from VWAP with high RVOL but didn’t offer a favorable R/R ratio. On Thursday, RVOL was below 3 during a potential setup, and on Friday, despite strong RVOL, the R/R ratio was again too low. Later on Friday, the market surged, but low RVOL kept us on the sidelines. Conclusion The key takeaway from this week is the importance of patience and discipline. It’s crucial to sit on your hands when not all your rules are checked. Even if the trade you didn’t take would have worked out, letting your ego guide your trading decisions can be a trap. Your ego might remember that one missed opportunity and push you to take the next trade without all your criteria being met, but that’s a recipe for disaster. Sticking to your trading rules is like maintaining trust in a relationship. Ignoring your rules is akin to cheating; it might be thrilling at first, but it will eventually lead to more pain than gain. So, stay calm, trust your process, and let the market create the trade for you, not the other way around. We hope this update adds real value as you continue to navigate the markets this week. Stay disciplined, patient, and focused on making smart, strategic trades! Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out! Subscribe to stay updated on all our latest trading ideas and strategies. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s build a community of traders who are committed to learning, growing, and succeeding together. Your journey to market mastery is just beginning, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way! What You’ll Learn: - In-depth market analysis - Proven trading setups - Effective risk management techniques - The importance of discipline in trading - How to adapt to changing market conditions - And much more!... Best wishes, TradingMasteryHub
OANDA:SPX500USD
by TradingMasteryHub
SPX Diamond TopWe've seen a tight range on SPX since about August 19th. Price is nearly at the same place it was then right now. That's a decent length of time and tells me there's a lot of compression and it'll make a big move once it picks a direction. There's plenty of bearish patterns, but you also can't deny that the market has been going straight up since early August and VX is still in decay mode. I've been expecting the top to be put in fairly soon for a while now, I thought there was a chance we'd dump before September/October, which would be the safest time to bet on downside in my opinion. We had the one big red day and almost had a circuit breaker on the Nasdaq, but it's been nothing but up since. I don't really see this type of volatility as a good thing for bulls, but it's been an impressive rally. I think it's just exit liquidity, we'll see. In addition to all of the major uptrend breaks and other bearish charts I've been posting on SPY/SPX, we also have a potential diamond top pattern here. It's not the cleanest, but looks pretty solid to me. Either way, the point of the diamond is that it shows a lot of volatility and indecision in the market. Broadening wedges and similar and suggest the same thing - indecision. That is usually not a good thing, especially near ATH. I'm still prepared for a big breakout though, we could see quite a melt up if we do shoot past ATH soon, but I just can't be on board with that until I see it.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
SPX: supported by consumer spendingThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index, was standing behind the increased investors optimism during the previous week. The Index reached the level of 2.5% in July, which was lower from market expectation of 2.6%. The US equities reacted positively, in expectation of the first Fed's rate cut. The S&P 500 gained more than 1%, ending the week at the level of 5.648. The index ended August with a gain of 2.3%. Additional support to the surging index came from good results which companies posted for the Q2. There are still only seven companies included in the S&P 500 which are pending results posts. The major companies in the tech industry continue to drive the index to the higher grounds. Market favorite stock, Nvidia, posted increased earnings by 13% for the second quarter. Almost all industries included in the index posted high results for Q2, except materials and real estate industries, which ended the quarter in a correction. The optimism on financial markets is expected to continue, taking into account posted consumer spending data. With the increase in consumer spending, investors are now expecting that the Q3 data will also be positive, and are adjusting accordingly. Also, analysts are currently making corrections of GDP projections for this year. Atlanta's Federal Reserve GDP now also made a correction of GDP growth expectations to 2.5% from 2.0% expected previously.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a bigger correction down and went up again. For next week we could see more upside for this pair to finish the last impulsive leg (wave 5). Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
SPX500USD Will Move Higher! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5,664.8. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 5,801.1 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
Sp500S&P 500 (SPX) Technical Update: Closing Price: 5648.39 (as of last week’s close) Outlook: The SPX appears poised for a potential rally, with immediate resistance levels identified at 5700.00, 5800.00, and 6000.00. Based on current technical indicators and market conditions, a continuation of the bullish trend to the 5800.00 level within the next month seems plausible. Technical Indicators Supporting a Bullish Move: Moving Averages: The SPX is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend. The positive crossover between these moving averages often signals sustained upward momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently positioned in the bullish zone (above 50) and has not yet reached overbought conditions. This suggests that there is room for further upside before any potential reversal. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, and the histogram is in positive territory. This indicates that the momentum is favorable and supports the possibility of further gains. Volume: Recent upward movements have been accompanied by increasing trading volume, which validates the strength of the rally and suggests that buying interest remains robust. Summary: Given the strong technical indicators and the current market environment, the SPX is well-positioned to advance towards the 5800.00 level over the next month. Current buying opportunities appear favorable for potentially significant gains.
SP:SPX
by Al-Reshad