SPX Outlook SPX500:
Economists predict it could reach 7200 this year, signaling a bullish outlook.
While a recession or depression is considered unlikely, if it does occur, bearish targets could drop to 3500–2000
SPX trade ideas
SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863An example on how our tools can be used to make projections: SPX expected value for 2025 is 6863 with an expected range from 5885 to 7841 with a probability of staying within this range of 66.67%. The expected volatility for this year is 16.63%. These projections are based on the last 5 years of data.
US 500 – Major Momentum Stall or Just Taking a Breather?After posting a gain of around 23%, 2024 was undoubtably another strong performance for the US 500 index. However, hopes of that much discussed ‘Santa Rally’ failed to materialise. Undermined by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on December 18th at the press conference following another 25bps (0.25%) interest rate cut.
His suggestion that further Fed interest rate cuts are likely to be on hold until more progress is made on bringing inflation back to the US central bank’s 2% target, put a dent in the strong bullish sentiment that had seen the US 500 index touch a new all time high at 6101, only days earlier on December 6th.
Now, with the index back trading around 5900 again, the question for traders at the start of 2025 may be, is this a major momentum stall or is the uptrend just taking a breather?
Weekly Mid-Average a Potential Line in the Sand
Recent declines in the US 500 are now approaching a possible key support level within the weekly picture marked by the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 5824 (Blue line on chart).
While having seen this line hold and resume price strength on previous occasions is no guarantee it will do so again, it may well be something of a ‘line in the sand’ to watch if tested in upcoming trading sessions.
Price action against this support zone could help us to gauge if the latest weakness in price is just a limited reaction to over-extended upside conditions, or if a downside closing break below this level is seen, if further extended falls may be about to materialise.
As we can see from the chart above, in April, August and September last year, it was the rising mid-average (Blue line on chart) that helped hold price declines and even prompt fresh upside strength to breach previous highs and extend the pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
US 500 - Why We Should Monitor Weekly Close Against 5824 Level
Sometimes, when a closing break below the weekly mid-average develops, we must wait to see if the average turns down, to suggest the potential of a downtrend forming, or as was the case in September, upside price action resumes, to break back and close above the still rising mid-average, pointing to the potential for further price strength.
So, with this in mind, if tested in upcoming sessions, it may be the Bollinger mid-average that can be important again as we move into 2025, and we will be monitoring the 5824 level on a closing basis.
Closes below this support, if followed by the average turning lower, could prove to be a sign of a more extended phase of weakness, although while it holds, the positive upside trending condition could still remain.
Potential Resistance Levels to Watch
While the rising weekly Bollinger mid-average currently suggests the longer term trend is still up, looking at the same measure on the daily chart, offers a slightly different picture.
The negative reaction to the Fed rate announcement on December 18th, saw the US 500 index break and close below its daily Bollinger mid-average, and as the daily chart above shows, this average has now turned lower.
While the daily mid-average (Blue line on chart), currently at 5998, continues to fall and as it did over the Christmas period, resists fresh attempts to move back higher again, this opens up the possibility that a short term daily downtrend may be materialising.
Potential Pivot Points:
In conclusion, it could be the weekly Bollinger mid-average at 5824 that marks a possible support, while the declining daily Bollinger mid-average at 5998 may suggest a potential important resistance level.
It could be worth watching both identified levels on a closing basis at the start of 2025. Confirmed closing breaks of either side, followed by the mid-average changing direction (the weekly average lower, or the daily higher) may lead to a more prolonged phase of price movement, in the direction of the break.
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S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Analysis
The price is currently trading with bullish momentum, reaching 5,969. A breakout above 5,969 is likely to push the price towards 6,022.
On the other hand, if the price remains stable below 5,969, it will fluctuate between 5,969 and 5,935. A break and a 4-hour candle closing below 5,935 will support a bearish trend, targeting 5,893 and 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5935
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Stability: Maintained below 5,969
Bullish Trend: Confirmed by a breakout above 5,969
SPX500USD (6H/4H): HIGH-RISK DOWNTRENDThe SPX500USD on the 4-hour/6-hour timeframe is exhibiting significant bearish momentum, consistent with a short- to medium-term downtrend.
However, longer-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching critical support levels that could provide a platform for a potential rebound. The SPX500USD remains in a short-term downtrend, presenting opportunities for bearish trades near resistance levels.
However, long-term indicators suggest that the index is approaching a critical support zone that could provide a platform for a rebound.
***Traders should watch for confirmation of price action and volume at the 5,800–5,860 level before committing to long positions.
OSCILLATORS
The oscillators highlight a bearish sentiment with increasing selling pressure but suggest that the market is nearing oversold conditions, potentially setting up for a relief bounce.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): 38.11 – Neutral, approaching oversold territory.
Stochastic %K: 24.77 – Neutral, near oversold conditions.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -102.47 – Neutral, signaling mild bearish momentum.
Momentum (10): -75.92 – Sell, confirming bearish pressure.
MACD: -29.63 – Sell, reflecting declining momentum and no imminent reversal signals.
Williams Percent Range: -77.32 – Neutral, nearing oversold territory.
MOVING AVERAGES
Short-term moving averages confirm bearish momentum, while long-term averages signal potential support and a possible reversal point.
Short-Term MAs (10, 20, 30, 50): All indicate “Sell” signals, confirming strong bearish momentum in the short to medium term.
Long-Term MAs (200 EMA and SMA): Indicate “Buy” signals, reflecting the underlying bullish trend over the longer timeframe.
Ichimoku Base Line: Neutral at 5,962.44.
Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): 5,959.81 – Sell, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): 5,862.93 – Buy, indicating potential support near current price levels.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS
Immediate Resistance: 5,960–6,000 (aligned with short-term moving averages).
Major Resistance: 6,100–6,160 (upper pivot zones and psychological barrier).
Key Support: 5,860–5,800 (aligned with Hull Moving Average and 200 EMA/SMA).
Critical Support: 5,760 and 5,658 (historical pivot lows).
PRICE ACTION
The index has recently tested its resistance levels near 5,960 but failed to break through, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Strong selling pressure is evident in the price action, with lower highs and lower lows dominating the 4-hour chart.
However, significant support is observed around 5,800, where the 200 EMA and SMA converge, offering potential for a bullish rebound if the level holds.
BEARISH SETUP (Short Positions)
Entry Zone: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels and short-term MAs).
Stop-Loss: Above 6,010 (next major resistance).
Target: 5,860–5,800 (first support zone), and extend to 5,760 if bearish momentum persists.
BULLISH SETUP (Long Positions)
Entry Zone: 5,800–5,860 (key support area, aligned with 200 EMA/SMA).
Stop-Loss: Below 5,780 (critical support break).
Target: 5,960–6,000 (resistance levels), and extend to 6,100 if the rebound is strong.
MARKET SENTIMENT
Short-Term: Bearish – Downtrend persists, with strong resistance at 5,960 and 6,000.
Medium-Term: Neutral – Oversold conditions may trigger a relief rally.
Long-Term: Bullish – The 200 EMA and SMA indicate potential for a long-term uptrend if key support levels hold.
$spy yieahhhLiking the risk reward here, a retest of the parallel channel. Heading to the med line.
If this breaks down, will get ugly to touch again lows of early Nov where we got a big volume shelf.
For now going to bet on the long side with a close stop in case this goes neeeih.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.2.2024🔮
📅 Thu Jan 2
⏰ 8:30am
Unemployment Claims: 222K (previous: 219K)
⏰ 9:45am
Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (previous: 48.3)
⏰ 11:00am
Crude Oil Inventories
📈GAP ABOVE HPZ:
If we gap above here,
its going to bait a lot
of traders
⛔OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
There is slight downside left.
A lot of people are still bullish
into the new years not good
for the longer rally.
📉GAP BELOW HCZ:
Will cause a mechanical bounce
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX 500 - New daily low, good buy opportunity Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trade on what we see the price movement on chart. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position. This ensures every trading position is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
2025 Stock Buyback CrashI think there's going to be a major stock market crash now. I drew a Schiff Pitchfork connecting the peak and bottom of the 2008 subprime mortgage crash to the peak of Covid-19. Why? I'm looking at the geometry of how the stock market reacts to large systemic human problems. Notice that SPX is now overbought in exactly the same region as the 2000 dot com bubble crash.
What is this thing I'm calling the "Stock Buyback Crash"? Well without getting too political, the name of the game in Capitalism in exploitation and grift. You can only pay your employees shit, fire huge percentages of your employees, and buy back your own stock to inflate your stock prices for so long before the game of chicken is up. Corporations haven't been reinvesting their surplus capital into improving their businesses. No, they've been artificially inflating their stock prices to get those sweet executive bonuses. Well, the bubble's about to burst. This whole system is a grift. I can highly recommend reading the book called 'Understanding Capitalism' by Richard Wolff.
Technical analysis comparing SPX, RUT, and DJIChart comparing supercycle structures of SPX, RUT, and DJT.
Supercycle starts October 1974.
Wave 1 peaks are in 2007-2008, wave 2's are zigzags that end in March 2009.
Wave 3 terminates in November 2021 for RUT and DJT,ithe latter of which has a blow-off top. SPX wave 3 terminates in January 2022.
Wave 4 assumes all three indices are forming flats. SPX and RUT formed all time highs in December 2024 and November 2024, respectively. DJT's all time high is still November 2021.
If DJT's wave 4 is a regular flat, then RUT and SPX are most likely expanded flats. Each index would then be in wave C of their flats, and each would be looking to take out their 2022 lows.
Therefore, for SPX, price should move down quickly towards 3491.58 to complete wave 4.
Wave 5 would be impulse waves back up towards all time highs, for a new bull market over the next 5-10 years.
SPX ... S&P 500 levels from 1877-1932, an omenThe following is a few examples of why things aren't looking good for the SPX and why it could be on its way to lower levels...
First the looking back of back testing this 1877 line.
further...
further...
further...
furthering...(White line removed and replaced with Grey...so not confuse on next picture)
still furthering...(Top White line is not the same as White in previous pictures*)
A clear showing how what is to come is a bounce or straight crash through levels when the crack in the tech world...or what i call "The gr(AI)t short"
Basically this is an idea for you to pick a color and count from 1877 to 2024 which has more touches; from there you have the best support line..kinda
More detailed short term posts will come soon...just figured out how to imbed these pics/charts
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 5,853.42
1st Support: 5,788.43
1st Resistance: 5,926.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in this week we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 5650 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 5650 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
S&P 500 - a fork in the roadThere are 3 major trendlines, 2 starting at the 1929 peak, 1 at the 1972 peak. Will SPX blast through the 1929-2000 trendline, or has something else been unleashed? I expect a breakout in 2025-6 to be rejected, only to resurge parabolically toward 2030.
S&P 500 - Clear head and shoulders pattern on the 1 hour.The markets have had a rough end of the year. The S&P 500 has printed a pretty clear head and shoulders pattern. Is this a fake out, or will it break to the down side?
I don't see anything different now than a few weeks ago, so can we mark it up to end of the year tax covering and profit taking? Or is there something more severe going on? A rate cut and Trump taking office should be a boon to the markets, unless we have a black swan event in the near future that the insider know about and we don't.
Bird flu? War with Russia? Debt ceiling? Some other unknown event? Maybe its all just noise. The charts "never" lie though.
S&P500 - The Next 14 Days Will Decide Everything!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is about to break all resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks, the S&P500 has been repeating the major breakout rally of 2021. Back then the S&P500 actually broke above the channel resistance and immediately rallied more than +15%. If we see the confirmed breakout, we will likely see the same thing happening again.
Levels to watch: $6.000, $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens█ Understanding Window Dressing: What It Is and Why It Happens
At the end of every quarter or year, especially in December, some fund managers engage in a practice called window dressing. While it may sound like a holiday tradition, it’s actually a financial strategy designed to make a portfolio look more attractive to investors. Here's what you need to know:
█ What Is Window Dressing?
Window dressing happens when fund managers adjust their portfolios right before reporting periods. They sell underperforming stocks and buy high-performing ones to present a cleaner, more successful-looking portfolio in reports to clients or investors. This tactic gives the appearance of strong investment decisions, even if the actual performance over the quarter or year was lackluster.
█ Why Do Fund Managers Do It?
To Impress Investors:
Fund managers want their reports to show a strong portfolio, which can attract new investors and retain current ones.
To Boost Confidence:
A portfolio filled with "winning" stocks makes it seem like the fund consistently picks the right investments.
To Justify Performance:
If a fund struggled during the year, window dressing can shift focus away from losses.
█ How Does It Work?
Selling Losing Stocks: Underperforming stocks are sold off so they don't appear in the end-of-year report. Example: A fund holding a struggling tech stock might sell it in December to avoid questions about its performance.
Buying Winning Stocks: Managers may buy stocks that performed well recently, even if they didn’t hold them earlier, to create the illusion of good timing. Example: Adding shares of a high-flying AI company to the portfolio in December to make it seem like they capitalized on the trend.
█ Examples in Action
⚪ Market Volatility in December
As the 2024 trading year wrapped up, U.S. stock markets experienced notable declines, reflecting a mix of profit-taking, year-end adjustments, and portfolio rebalancing. One key driver of this volatility was window dressing. Fund managers, aiming to improve the appearance of their portfolios, sold off underperforming stocks in bulk before the year-end reporting period. This large-scale activity added pressure to the already vulnerable market, amplifying price movements, particularly in weaker stocks.
Example: Imagine a fund holding several tech stocks that underperformed in 2024. By December, the fund may decide to sell these stocks en masse, effectively clearing them from their books. This sudden selling can further depress the stock prices of those underperforming companies, creating a ripple effect across the broader market.
Broader Market Impact: The sharp sell-offs from window dressing contribute to increased market fluctuations, which can mislead casual investors into thinking these stocks are worse off than they might be in the long term.
⚪ Tax-Loss Selling
In addition to window dressing, another widespread practice that overlaps with it during December is tax-loss selling. This is when fund managers or individual investors sell losing stocks to offset their capital gains for tax purposes. This allows them to reduce their taxable income while simultaneously adjusting their portfolios for the new year.
How It Overlaps: A fund manager selling a losing stock for tax purposes might also be engaging in window dressing, as this helps clean up the portfolio's appearance for the year-end report. The dual motivation often drives even more selling pressure on underperforming stocks in December.
Example: Suppose a fund owns shares of a biotech company that fell significantly during the year. Selling the shares not only offsets gains elsewhere in the portfolio but also removes the "blemish" of a losing position from the annual report.
█ Is Window Dressing Legal?
Yes, it’s legal, but it’s often criticized for being misleading. Investors might think the fund's performance was better than it actually was. Regulators like the SEC are taking steps to increase transparency. For example, mutual funds will soon have to report their holdings monthly instead of quarterly, making it harder to hide these tactics.
█ How Does It Affect You as an Investor?
Short-Term Market Volatility: Window dressing can cause unusual price movements in December as funds adjust their portfolios.
Misleading Reports: If you’re investing in mutual funds or ETFs, the end-of-year portfolio may not reflect the manager’s true strategy or the fund’s performance throughout the year.
█ Takeaway for Investors
Window dressing is a reminder to look beyond year-end reports when evaluating a fund. Focus on long-term performance and consistency rather than just the holdings shown in December. Transparency regulations will help, but it’s always wise to dig deeper.
By understanding window dressing, you can make more informed decisions about your investments and avoid being misled by this common, yet questionable, practice.
-----------------
Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
S&P 500: Final Day Analysis with Key Levels and Trend OutlookS&P 500 Technical Analysis
It's the final trading day of the year.
The price shows bullish momentum up to 5,969, which must be confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level. This could lead to a further rise toward 6,022, followed by a correction.
Conversely, stability below 5,969 will trigger a bearish move from 5,969 toward 5,899 and potentially 5,863.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5937
Resistance Levels: 5969, 6022, 6053
Support Levels: 5905, 5863, 5790
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum: Stability below 5,969
Bullish Trend: If 5,969 is broken
Year-end volatilityWhile it’s true that yesterday wasn’t completely void of economic events, a disappointing Chicago PMI can’t really shoulder the blame, or take the credit, for the wild stock market swings that took place. The Dow was down 700 points first thing, on no news. It then rallied 500 soon after the US open, before dropping 200 in the last hour of trading. In S&P terms, that was a loss of 100 points in three hours; a rally of 60 over the following three, topped off with a 30 point slump in the final hour of trading. As they say over the Atlantic: “Go figure.” A clue to what all that was about may be found in the US Treasury market where yields pulled back from recent highs. The 10-year Treasury note lost around 8 basis points yesterday, again on no news. So, like Sherlock Holmes and the ‘dog that didn’t bark’, it seems fair to suggest that investors were indulging in a dollop of year-end window dressing and rebalancing. Equities have had a strong twelve months, so these were sold off on profit-taking; bonds have had a dreadful fourth quarter, so they got bought, sending yields lower. This should help maintain the traditional 60:40 equity/bond portfolio to which most money managers aspire. That still leaves the 10-year yield over 4.50%, and a potential headwind for equities, although it’s remarkable how quickly investors can acclimatise to new environments. Could a 5.00% yield be the new danger threshold next year, as 4.50% now looks rather tatty and obsolete? Going forward, there are two related issues that investors are considering: Will growth continue to outperform value? Can the tech giants continue to lead the market, providing investors with further outsized gains (how does one try to calculate the future returns of generative AI and quantum computing)? Or will the more neglected value stocks take over? That’s all one issue. The second one is: Has the US peaked in terms of market outperformance? Is it now time to rebalance towards Europe and emerging markets? Is China once again an investment opportunity? That’s the other one. Linking all this is where the US dollar is likely to head from here. Yesterday, Jared Dillian, in his ‘Daily Dirtnap’, posted a chart of the Dollar Index superimposed on the same chart from 2016, around the time of Trump’s first presidential election victory. It shows the Dollar Index peaking around 106.00 a month after the result, then falling to 94.00 eight months later. Will history repeat? We know that President-elect Trump likes low interest rates, and tariffs. Could that be enough to trash the greenback? If so, then 2025 is likely to see higher commodity prices, a bond market rally and a bit of a headwind for US equities. Let’s look forward to finding out.
S&P500 First 4H Death Cross in 5 months! Is it bearish indeed?The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a decline since Thursday and despite the thin holiday volume and less trading days, is a sign of weakness on the short-term. Especially having completed a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame on December 24.
In fact, this is the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months (since July 29). During that sequence, the index was under heavy seasonal selling pressure but initially rose following the Death Cross. Soon after though it collapsed lower on bad macroeconomics.
This time however, the trend turned bearish immediately after the Death Cross. The buy signal in August was the Aug 05 4H RSI Double Bottom. This time, the RSI has already started rising since yesterday.
In our opinion, this suggests that the selling pressure by the 4H Death Cross is most likely over and we can technically see the new Bullish Leg of the 3-month Channel Up.
The most common % rise these past few months has been +7.19%. If we count that from the recent December 20 Low, then we should be expecting a 6200 Target by late January - early February.
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THE Scariest Trend Line you will ever have to see/consider !!!This upper line of resistance is where its all breakdown or break out !!!
Divided America, recession incomingthis just caught my eyes, a textbook abc pattern, and it can be an EW wave 5 which is equal to wave3, in that case, America will enter a recession . for now it's not high probability, when it becomes so , I will publish setups(and this is not a setup).
