S&P500 Bullish continuation developing close to ATHUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today at an ASEAN summit, as tensions remain high over the war in Ukraine. President Trump has criticized Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are meeting in Rome to plan postwar rebuilding.
Trump also announced new tariff plans—50% on Brazil and 20% on the Philippines, though further talks are expected. He said a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be close, possibly within weeks.
In business news, X CEO Linda Yaccarino is stepping down, Meta faces a competition warning in France, and Wall Street banks are preparing financing for a $4.25 billion Boots buyout. Nvidia became the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market value, boosted by strong investor demand.
US Equity Outlook:
Markets may trade mixed. Nvidia’s historic surge could lift tech stocks, but geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may limit gains. Investors will watch for more updates on tariffs and global talks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6290
Resistance Level 2: 6340
Resistance Level 3: 6400
Support Level 1: 6180
Support Level 2: 6120
Support Level 3: 6070
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SPX trade ideas
SPX - This IS the TOPA three day test of the high is as obscure as it can get, especially when I hear on tv that there is near certainty that every dip is a buying opportunity. We have enough for the move to count as a wave 5. The next move down should be a doozy. I'd be happy with a few down days with the intense resiliancy of stocks. Too much money in the system. Can prices go to infinity?
SPX - Are you catching the rotation trends? SPX is still holding very bullish price action. Technicals are pointing towards higher price and todays inside consolidation day certainly helps digest recent gains.
Along with the flat indices market session, we did observe some massive capital rotation trends.
Financials saw a pretty strong down move across the board. JPM / BAC / C all saw large outflows. We were positioned on the short side of financials and took profits on JPM puts.
Even with the big selloff in financials, SPX held up surprisingly well.
Capital simply rotated instead of outright leaving the market. Bullish Signal.
Technology, Energy, Materials, Health care, Transports all saw capital inflow trends.
Rotation into under preforming sectors is a sign that markets could be staging another healthy leg up.
We still have an upside target over 6300 on SPX.
SPX500 Range-Bound Between 6223–6246 |Breakout Will Define TrendSPX500 – Technical & Fundamental Outlook
The SPX500 is currently trading within a narrow consolidation zone between 6223 and 6246.
A 1H or 4H candle close below 6223 would confirm a bearish breakout, with downside targets at 6191 and 6143.
Conversely, a 1H close above 6246 would signal bullish continuation, potentially driving the price toward the next resistance at 6287, followed by 6305.
Support: 6223 / 6191 / 6143
Resistance: 6287 / 6305
Fundamental Note:
The tariff situation remains a major driver.
Successful negotiations would likely boost bullish sentiment across indices.
Lack of progress may trigger renewed bearish momentum.
SPX Expansion with Historical DataGood morning everyone!
This week I wanted to elaborate more on my previous idea of SPX with the historical data that led to this analysis. This is almost all fundamental analysis adding in the retracement percentages which can also be evaluated through some technical instruments.
Unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, with inflation at 2.4%. Based on the data, it is evident the market is currently in an expansion period which is why the narrative that we will see 2 interest rate drops by the end of year continues to diminish. I think we will probably see 1 before the year ends and that would just fuel the market and gain momentum to the upside.
If we were to measure the expansion of SPX going back to the 2000's, we get an extension of at least 75%. If we were to extend 75% based on the previous swing high (6,147) we could see future SPX price at 8,500. Now, do your own research, but the data is here. I expect the market to possibly retest previous high, but if you did not enter during the dip, no worries. There is still plenty of upside potential and better late than never.
Remember... CASH FLOW IS KING!
Avoid all the noise and distractions. The job of many platforms out there is to have something to put out for the public EVERYDAY! A good amount of that is noise. Look for macroeconomic news and let that be your indicator.
Historical Data:
(1) .com Bubble (2000 - 2002) We had a 50% drop of SPX. This lasted for almost 2 years before recovery.
(2) Housing Market (2007 - 2009) The SPX dropped 57% due to the collapse of subprime lenders collapsing. Housing prices decline drastically leaving people with high mortgage payments than what their homes are actually worth leading to a wave of foreclosures.
(3) Covid (2020) This was a global event with government mandated shutdowns causing the entire financial markets to come to a halt. Many business closures that led to jobs loss with an unemployment rate of approximately 15%.
(4) Inflation & Rate Hikes (2022) When Covid happened, upon recovery market expanded way too fast causing inflation to rise and the Feds to increase interest rates to slow down the economy.
(5) Tariffs (2025) Will stay away from politics on this one, however, a rebalancing of trade has taken place with some countries still working on tariff deals with the U.S. This has caused huge uncertainty for companies and corporation. VIX (fear index) reached 60.13.
Hope you enjoyed this post. Have a great rest of your week, don't forget to like and follow and Happy Trading!
S&P to go down a bit....good time to hop on UVIX!Saw this from a mile away. We are now at the cross hair between high tariffs and the tail-end of a week long rally that was mostly based on hot air. What's next? Gravity will prevail.
The VIX has been at super low levels historically. UVIX is a nice 2X! Jumped like 4% already today and there's way more upside. Best of luck and always do your own due diligence.
Little more upside for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD went higher then expected (wavecount updated).
If this is correct, then next week we could see a little more upside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily bullish FVG's to trade longs again. At the moment price is too high to trade.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave TheoryAnalysis shows that the Wave 3(Black) correction is a Flat because Wave 2(Black) was a Zigzag. From the ending of Wave 3(Black), we see a shallow Wave A(Blue) forming. This is our first Wave of the 3 move correction. From A(Blue), another 3 wave move MUST occur and must go beyond the ending of Wave 3(Black) as seen. The correction of Wave A(Blue) is marked by an unfolding 3 wave move shown in Green. Waves A and B are formed after Wave A(Blue) completes. For the last 'leg' of the 3 Wave correction, we find a 5 Wave move shown in Red and this should contain all properties of a normal 5 wave move. Wave 1(Red) is followed by a Zigzag correction and we should expect a Flat correction at Wave 3(Red). Indeed a Flat is formed and is highlighted in Purple. Wave 4(Red) is complete. This sets in motion a last wave that upon completion would be the end of Wave C(Green) hence the end of Wave B(Blue) and would trigger the start of Wave 4(Black). Follow for breakdown of the same chart in the Daily time frame.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 Index has primarily shown an upward course, hitting and surpassing our target for the Outer Index Rally of 6235. Currently, the index demonstrates a consistent bullish trend, with the following objective for the Outer Index Rally set at 6420, followed by forthcoming targets of 6620 and 6768. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the current price action may cause prices to retrace from their current fluctuation to test the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
Decade-Long Uptrend Holds Strong – SPX Hits Fresh HighsS&P 500 Just Hit a New All-Time High (ATH) 🚀
The index has been in a strong uptrend for over a decade, consistently printing higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).
Every major resistance level has flipped into support, classic bull market structure.
Even during corrections, the 33 EMA and 100 EMA have acted like dynamic support zones.
Now that SPX has cleared its previous ATH, the structure remains intact, unless a strong breakdown occurs, momentum is still with the bulls.
SPX500 Holding Bullish Structure – Eyes on 6287 BreakoutSPX500
The price maintains bullish momentum as long as it remains above 6225 and 6246.
Currently, the market is approaching the 6287 resistance level. A confirmed 4H candle close above 6287 is required to validate continuation of the bullish trend toward 6325.
However, a rejection from 6287 may trigger a short-term bearish correction, with potential pullbacks toward 6246 and 6225.
A sustained break below 6225 would shift the momentum to the downside, targeting the 6143 support level.
Pivot Level: 6264
Resistance: 6287 – 6325
Support: 6246 – 6225 – 6143
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SPX : Next Stop @ 6800 :-)Since we are now expecting a delay in the FED cutting, there will be plenty of liquidity to spice things up.
The 'D' @ yellow had worked once before and since it has been 'used up' , its potency had been somewhat reduced.
But have no fear/worry, there would always be more 'D' ahead. The next one at 6,800
Good luck.
S&P 500 ($SPX) Nests Upward in Strong RallySince bottoming out on April 7, 2025, following the tariff war selloff, the S&P 500 (SPX) has sustained a robust rally. The Index is reaching new all-time highs in a clear Elliott Wave impulsive structure. Technical analysis, particularly momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows no divergence at the latest peak. This indicates sustained bullish momentum and suggests the rally remains within the third wave of the Elliott Wave sequence. From the April 7 low, wave 1 concluded at 5968.6. A corrective wave 2 followed which ended at 5767.41. The index has since nested higher within wave 3, demonstrating strong upward momentum.
Breaking down the substructure of wave 3, the hourly chart below reveals that wave ((i)) peaked at 6059.4. The subsequent pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag pattern. Wave (a) declined to 5963.21, and wave (b) rebounded to 6050.83. Wave (c) concluded at 5941.4, completing wave ((ii)) in the higher degree. The index has since resumed its ascent in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) reached 215.08 and a minor pullback in wave (ii) ended at 6177.97.
The SPX is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with potential pullbacks finding support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing against the 5941.4 level, setting the stage for further gains. This analysis underscores the index’s bullish outlook, supported by technical indicators and Elliott Wave structure, as it navigates higher within this impulsive cycle.
Risk environment to remain positive? S&P continuation?Despite all the recent tariff concerns, inflation concerns and Middle East worries. The S&P continues to push all tine highs. And 'risk surprises' not withstanding, is likely to do so. Backed up by a solid start to ratings season, especially from Netflix.
In the currency space, that should mean the JPY remains weak. And I'm cutoutting recent JPY strength due to profit taking ahead of weekend elections. But moving into the new week, i'll be looking for JPY short opportunities.
S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (US500) holds a strong bullish structure, continuing to print higher highs and higher lows above diverging EMAs, signaling sustained upward momentum.
RSI has eased from overbought levels, now hovering below 70, while price consolidates sideways near recent highs, a typical pause before potential continuation.
ADX remains elevated above DI+ and DI-, with DI+ above DI–, confirming trend strength and ongoing bullish momentum.
A breakout above the 6300 all-time high would confirm a bullish continuation, with the next upside target near 6500 based on the flagpole projection.
Conversely, a drop below 6200 may trigger a deeper pullback toward the 6050 support zone.
Fundamental Outlook
Corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector, continue to exceed expectations, providing significant support to the index. Analysts project continued earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, with profits expected to grow by approximately 9% year-over-year in 2025, reinforcing confidence in the index’s rising fundamental valuation.
Markets are now pricing in earlier Fed rate cuts, driven by evolving economic data and political pressure.
Economic data such as stronger-than-expected retail sales and unemployment claims, though the latter could reduce the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, signal robust consumer demand, which should continue to support economic growth.
by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness