SPX - LONGWait for price to fill the gap. Once in the zone wait for bullish confirmation on the higher time frames for bulls to take over. TP set at previous highs.
SPX trade ideas
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 5,782.52
1st Support: 5,692.37
1st Resistance: 6,138.06
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are.
The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here.
First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time.
If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong.
Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high.
Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it.
Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23.
If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move.
The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs.
SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake.
Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping.
Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that.
The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event.
A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner.
Which would be crash like on this timeframe.
But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23.
Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome.
If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered.
The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals.
It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad.
I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right.
What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break.
How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23.
If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling.
The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent.
From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started.
What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years.
I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets.
There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero.
Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical.
I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that.
It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash.
If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated.
The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action.
If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it.
The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break.
At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
Is minor B done?In my last post…” We Have a Full Pattern into The Target Box” … I stated, “I am now looking for a 5-wave pattern to develop to the downside, followed by a 3-wave retrace, that in the coming weeks can take us back out of the target box to the downside.”
That pattern may have begun today in the very micro sense. This is very preliminary, so we need follow through to the downside so that in the days and weeks to come, we can confirm a top in minor B.
A short term buy opportunity: US500AUDHello,
We are at a great level for buy opportunities for the S&P500 quoted in AUD from a technical point of view. After the Trump tariff declaration, most countries rushed and sought exemptions. However, China chose to retaliate. The focus shifted towards China and the trade war between the US and China escalated quite fast. President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. China responded with a 125% tax on US imports, bringing nearly $600 billion in trade to a halt. Trump continues to insist that the issue of trade deficits needs to be solved and he seems quite serious about it. However, we acknowledge that Tariffs will not solve the trade deficits in totality. Tariffs are still seen as a negotiation tactic to call stakeholders to the table for President Trump. The U.S. and China are economically interdependent. The U.S. is China’s largest export market, and China is the U.S.’s largest import market.
On 14th may, China and the Unites States called for a truce on the trade war and agreed to reduce tariffs on one another by 115 per cent for 90 days. The average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese exports will fall from 145 per cent to 30 per cent during that time, and the corresponding Chinese figure will fall from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Additionally, the United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade deal for both countries. This two significant news excited the market and the S&P which is a market barometer was not left out. The S&P has since recovered and is currently trading at $5,886 (Above the April 2nd levels). While analysts may be concerned whether the underlying structure of the relationship between the United States and other economies remains fragile and subject to re-escalation. The long-term implications of this trade truce are still being assessed, with some anticipating renewed trade flows and market gains, while others caution that the underlying structural issues remain.
We believe the U.S. may shift its focus to accelerating Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near term. Just yesterday (13th May 2025), the inflation numbers came in lower than expected, the consumer price index rose by 2.3% in April, down from 2.4% in March – prompting President Trump to renew attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, demanding he cut interest rates. We believe that lower rates will add onto an already rising market and now is a perfect time for us to align our portfolio by considering adding more into the S&P 500.
Adding to the above is that we are just closing on the Quarter one 2025 results and, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% surpassing estimates, according to FactSet. This strong performance signals robust market health, particularly at current lows. Although tariffs were introduced post-Q1, the combination of solid earnings, easing inflation, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut could drive a bullish surge toward all-time highs. We recommend a buy on the US500AUD from the current levels.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-22 : Inside Breakaway CountertrendToday's Inside Breakaway in Countertrend mode suggests the markets may attempt to move downward - away from the recent highs.
I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into a sideways/consolidation range over the next 3-5+ trading days before attempting to make any big moves. We have a holiday-shortened trading week next week, and I believe the markets are moving into the Summer doldrums.
Overall, I would ask traders to stay cautious of this transition in the markets over the next 5--10+ days and prepare for volatility to increase after June 1st.
You all know what I believe is the most likely outcome - a rollover topping pattern followed by a breakdown in price targeting the 525-535 level on the SPY. We'll see what happens going forward.
Gold and Silver pullback back overnight which suggests the metals markets were a bit overheated to the upside. I still believe Metals will continue to push higher.
BTCUSD is trading up above $111k. Here we go.
BTCUSD is moving up into the potential rejection level that I suggested in my 5-20 video as a MASSIVE WARNING setup.
This is where we'll see how BTCUSD plays out - if we continue to push higher or if we REJECT and move into a broad downtrend.
I didn't expect it to happen only TWO DAYS after my video - but here we are.
Time to get muddy and play what price puts in front of us.
Get some.
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Pimp Your Indicators – A Smoothed Take on RSIYou don’t need to reinvent the wheel to find new and effective trading tools. Often, enhancing classic indicators with a few thoughtful modifications can yield surprisingly powerful results. Here’s a simple yet effective way to upgrade the RSI and turn it into a more actionable entry signal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, providing a measure of upside momentum within a given timeframe. For example, an RSI reading of 60 implies a 60% upside dominance based on recent price action. Traditionally, traders interpret levels above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold. However, RSI on its own isn’t reliable as a standalone entry trigger. An overbought reading doesn’t necessarily mean the market is losing strength—it simply indicates recent data reflects a strong upward move.
Smoothed RSI Approaches
To extract more useful signals, we can enhance the RSI in a couple of simple but effective ways:
1. RSI vs. RSIMA (RSI Moving Average):
One approach is to smooth the RSI itself by calculating a moving average of the RSI (call it RSIMA), and then observe the difference between the RSI and its moving average. A positive difference suggests bullish momentum; a negative one, bearish. This approach reduces some noise but can still result in a choppy indicator, as seen in the subplot of the reference chart.
2. RSI on Smoothed Price (RSI5M):
A more refined method involves smoothing the price before calculating RSI. Specifically, apply a 5-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to the price series, then compute the RSI on this smoothed series—let’s call it RSI5M. The key insight is to then analyze the difference between RSI5M and the standard RSI. This difference creates a smoother, more robust signal that better captures market bias.
Why It Works
In uptrends, the EMA(5) smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights the prevailing trend more clearly than raw price data. As a result, RSI5M tends to rise faster and higher than the standard RSI. The difference between the two becomes positive in uptrends and negative in downtrends, making it a useful gauge of directional momentum. This effect is illustrated in the lower subplot of the reference chart, where the smoothed signal offers a clearer view of market regimes.
Ready-to-Use Script
If you're not into coding, you can explore the public script of the Parsifal.RSI.Trend indicator on TradingView. It implements a slightly refined version of this smoothed RSI differential and provides a clean visual cue for trend bias.
The Macro Importance of the 4.23 Breakout or Fake-outWe are at an incredibly interesting and unique point in SPX. I am fascinated to see how this ends up resolving.
Based on everything I know, these things predict extreme trend events come next.
First let's take a moment to qualify the idea the 4.23 is going to be important. The idea of using a line generated by a multiple of a swing that happened almost 20 years ago to make decision on what will happen in the next years sounds silly. I know that. But look at what happened on all of the previous fibs. Seeing is believing.
This doesn't tell me the 4.23 has to be important, but it supports the idea it may be. If you bet any of the previous fibs would not be important, you'd have been wrong. All of these did their thing in one way or another at one point. It's quite incredibly, really. Especially if you understand that these pullback/breaks levels are common any time you use these fibs in a developing trend. They tend to react to the same levels in the same ways. Then it happens on the Big Stage .It's amazing.
And if it continues, the next thing is ultra amazing.
The 4.23 head fake has disastrous forecasts. In the full play out of the 4.23 rejection we return to the 1.27 fib. In this case, that'd be a Depression style event. When a trend forms through fibs having all these pullback/break reactions and it gets to the 4.23, if the trend fails there -a massive mean reversion move happens.
When applied to a decade long rally, that would be horrific. This is the macro bear risk I have discussed at length, generally taking shorts into the fibs and covering/reversing long into supports). In the grand scheme of things the 4.23 area would be seen to have been essentially the top with some wild blow off action above it that turned into a head fake. We'd be right in the end times. A lot of nuance is needed for real trading but in a historical analysis it'd be seen that we were at the high now.
On the other hand, if the 4.23 breaks we usually see a move that is equal in size to all of the move before but happens in a fraction of the time. 4.23 breaks can be a wild with all supports/resistances being easily broken in big persistent candles. 4.23 breaks are rare, but they tend to put you into the most exceptional of price moves.
For context, when a 4.23 breaks when I am trading them on a 15 min chart prices are moving that fast I generally don't have time to do much. Even if I am sitting there watching at the exact moment it kicks off. It's like this;
"Wow! Okay I need to think what to ... WOW!".
Prices are moving too fast to process any reasonable plan. By the time you consider the situation you're in, you're in a totally different one. Nice conditions to be trailing stops. Hard to enter into.
The magnitude of a 4.23 break here would be astonishing based on the previously discussed norms. It'd predict that SPX would go into a move where it was doubling from the high. Furthermore, it was doing it in a tiny fraction of the time it took the previous rally.
For our doubling number it'd be best to take the breakout of the 4.23. Let's call it 5000 to keep it simple. Would give us an upside target of 10,000 in SPX without accounting for any stop hunting or overshoots. It would also imply that this happens in a crash up type of move. "Crash" being defined as a strong and sustained breaks of SR levels with no big reactions.
When it comes to tactical trading this is a total nightmare at this moment in time with the suggestion of massive profits (with potentially easy markets) in the coming year or so. At this point in time it's very tricky. If you accept the premise that either we're in a head fake over the 4.23 and a very aggressive rejection is coming or we're now into the start of what will become hyper over performance in the trend you have to consider this as a bit of a limbo point where there could be a chance to do well one way or the other but if you screw up something terrible will happen to you.
If it was a 4.23 fake out we'd have a super strong sell off. There could then be a big bull trap coming up to a double top/spike out and this would then turn into the most sensational of crashes down to under the 4.23- as the macro uptrend experiences what will become its first major trend failure.
The action in that move short term would be insane. There could be some late month rejection here (or next month) and then a massive monthly engulfing candle. We could see a month -20% or so and then see follow through down months. The amount the market could drop and how fast it'd be predicted to drop make it enticing to bet on this.
To bet on this, you have to bet into the rallies. There are too many times we dip and rip to try to sell after bear candles etc. They produce too many false signals. You can end up losing money even if you hit the big trade eventually. Betting on rallies allows you higher RR and when there are short term pullbacks you can get stops into even.
But that leads us to the headache ...
If we're inside a real breakout of the 4.23, we're in the foothills of what will become the most exceptional of rallies. During this, we should see massive high momentum moves up. These will generally go from one resistance level to another. Said differently, you'll see the spikes that seem ideal to fade into the levels you think are the levels to fade - and they won't be levels to fade.
Conversely, the bull strategy would have you aggressively buying all dips and breakouts. When you see momentum looking to get in one it quickly. If it pulls back, all the better. Doesn't matter if you take a string of losses because if you end up in lower at the end and it makes a new high you'll be net up on the round trip. The trend is going to be accommodating and it's only going to get better and better. You can't lose on the upside, and if you come at it in a really attacking way you could perhaps position before a massive upside move.
But you might be doing that into the very end of the trend and have all sorts of sickening gap risk/slippage risk and margin call risk.
Of course, the 4.23 thing might end up not even being important. But from the lens I see markets through, I have to think it will be. If it's not, I'll be surprised. And it makes me believe that whatever way it goes there has to be something exceptional.
When it comes to these juxtaposed outcomes watching price is not all that helpful. Because this can happen in an up move.
With this happening in a down move.
It can be really hard to tell things apart until the point where you've lost is crossed.
If we break the high and you think we're going higher, it's important to be aware of the risk of a bigger pullback. But it can just break and run, too.
Or to the downside it could break abruptly.
Breaks more commonly have traps in them and would look something like this.
So we have a unique situation where I think it's fully justifiable to expect there would be exceptional moves with the market going up 100% or down over 60% - and both of these would be expected to happen within a short period of time. Bulk of it over a couple years. But the nuances of how to go about positioning in a risk efficient way are tricky.
On the bear side, you should be fading this rally and looking to build positions into drops as they develop. But if you're doing that against a bull trend you'll get decent entries if you're good with resistances but build up a position into support and end up down/even on all your entries. And you'll lose a lot of entries with no reaction - so you'll lose overall.
On the buy side you should be aggressively accumulating and buying close to supports but in the 4.23 head fake thesis this would be literally the worst time in your life to do that.
If you're buying and we go up and breakout, you should buy more. But if it's a breakout/correction then you'll get nailed. You can buy more into the correction but you might be "Exit liquidity" in the dump. In the dump, you can short aggressively but are liable to get cut up a dozen different ways.
This set of dilemmas are always something faced when you're trading at a binary inflection point. Even on small charts when we trade at 1.61/2.61 and 4.23 levels this set of paradoxes exist and are tricky to know exactly what's best to to do - on the Big Stage, it's mindboggling the different things that may happen. And daunting knowing the different traps.
If this 4.23 thing is going to be right, the one thing that is sure is there's going to be well above average chances to make big money when the 4.23 decision is resolved.
The 4.23 rejection would be a terrible event. And with who knows what types of real world impacts/reasons. From an intellectual standpoint it is fascinating. If we went into that style of crash now we'd have done it off basic TA patterns, mirroring major crashes of the past and even the interest rates cycles would have been the same as previous bubbles. In the final analysis of it, almost all aspects of the formation and bust of the bubble would have been foreseeable with basic pattern matching ideas. All of the things that have happened in the last 50 years and then all of the crazy things that'd have to happen for a depression crash in the years to come - all foreseeable with extremely basic pattern ideas. The fact everything has matched as well as it has so far trading through the fibs is already remarkable. If it was punctured by a mean reversion fat tail ... wow! On a personal level, even just in the minor drops of 2020, 2022 and recent one it's clear to see indices going down a lot is going to really hurt people. At this point we're just seeing this in speculators but it makes me think about what this would be like on a grand scale. It'd not be nice.
The 4.23 breakout thesis is fascinating and exhilarating. A prospect of heading into the major boom section of a mega trend and having full awareness of that being what you're heading into and approximately where you can expect that to end up going. These would be conditions where someone who knows what they're doing can make insane amounts of money. Even just showing up will make money (as long as you don't end up overstaying). In this extreme doubling event we would still be predicting bad times ahead - but they'd be differed by a couple of years. From a selfish point of view this would all seem great. To benefit from a bubble and be able to bet on a spectacular reversal later. From a humanistic point of view it seems like it'd only cause greater devastation later. No one cares now because we're back at all time highs and boohoo anyone who sold the bottom, but at the lows of April there were anti suicide posts pinned in trading forums. That's how bad things are now on a 20% drop. Think how much worse they'd get if mania develops more.
It's an interesting time. For the sake of sanity and profitability I am doing my best to be as agnostic as possible about what the outcome will be. Plan for all, execute as suitable. I hope we see the 4.23 break. It's the better of the trading ops (Since it offers two massive swings) and if we can crash up or down by the same amount of points, who cares which way it goes? Trading long can be logistically easier in many ways, so it'd be the preference if all else was equal. And being a bear is tiring. It's particularly tiring having to explain to people stating a statistical observation on a SR level doesn't mean you're depressed, angry, a shill and having a different opinion about markets does not mean you hate them. So they don't have to try to fight with you. Every 5 mins...
If you're a bull and say something will go from 100 to 130. And it goes to 40 then it goes to 129 ... you were always right. That's what people say. If you're a bear at 100 and it goes to 120 then 40 you were an idiot that got lucky eventually. I always find that funny about social media.
We're in interesting times. If my 4.23 hypothesis turns out to be correct we're heading into the history books. It's just a question of "For what?.
BearishThe market has tapped into our orderblock and filling the imbalance,break of the trend will confirm our way to the downside.
S&P500 Same recovery path with 2020 and 2009The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost 90% of its losses since the February 19 2025 All Time High (ATH) and many have already started calling for a technical correction.
If we compare however this 2025 Tariff fueled correction with the recent most aggressive ones (COVID crash in 2020 and Housing Crisis 2008/2009) we see a different picture.
On their respective 0.9 Fibonacci levels (close to which we are today), both of those market recoveries went straight to new ATHs, without testing their MA50 (blue trend-line) until the next Cycle peak. They had that tested before when the price was trading near (or on)the 0.618 Fib. Notice also how a MACD Bullish on all three charts, confirmed the aggressive recovery pattern straight after the bottom.
Instead of a correction, history shows that we might be looking at new ATH soon.
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SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump
This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend.
Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now.
🪙 Bitcoin Stalling
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market.
But let’s be clear:
🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over
The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact.
However, in TradFi, there are cracks:
🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag
💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade
📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk
🔮 What to Expect
Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target)
A possible rebound after healthy consolidation
A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks
I’ll publish a new update when conditions change.
📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR.
#CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash.
Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing .
For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low.
On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher.
This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market.
So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world.
Thank you for reading.
Note: not financial advice
S&P500 Short: C WaveI believe that the correction up in 5 waves has ended as a B wave. And we should go into a C wave now.
SP500 BEARISH TRADE IDEA Key Observations:
Imbalance Zone Identified (Supply-Demand Gap):
The pink zone is marked as an imbalance — an area where price moved too quickly upward, leaving little trading volume in between.
These imbalances often act like magnets, drawing price back to "fill" them.
Recent Price Action:
Price recently formed a peak and has since started pulling back.
The latest candlesticks show bearish momentum (a series of red Heikin Ashi candles with increasing size).
Projected Price Movement:
A blue arrow projects a further decline into the imbalance zone, suggesting price may retest this level for liquidity or to complete a retracement.
Target Area:
The imbalance zone lies approximately between 5,680 and 5,736, with a midpoint around 5,710.
This is a logical target for a pullback before potentially resuming upward.
📉 Bearish Bias Justification:
Market Structure: A new lower high is forming, possibly signaling a short-term reversal or correction.
Heikin Ashi Candles: Smooth and elongated bearish candles indicate strength in the down move.
Volume Imbalance Theory: Price may need to fill this inefficiency before finding new direction.
✅ Possible Trading Implications:
Short Setup: Traders might look for short positions with targets inside the imbalance zone.
Buy Opportunity: Once the imbalance is filled, if bullish price action confirms, it could become a strong buy zone.
⚠️ What to Watch:
Look for confirmation (e.g., candlestick reversal or support forming) in the imbalance area before assuming reversal.
News/events (such as the economic calendar icons below) might impact price direction sharply.
S&P500: First Trade War indicates that ATH comes soon.S&P500 is a very healthy bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.213, MACD = 111.000, ADX = 49.249), being considerably over its 1D MA200, with the 1D RSI very close to the overbought zone. This resembles the first Trade War in 2018, when once the 1D MA200 was crossed, it became a Support level and extended the rally to the index Highs and the R1. We remain bullish on SPX with TP = 6,150.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Plan for Full Support Failure We did really well today with lotto puts, hitting over 2,000% on the OTMs taking near the high of the day betting on new lows - but I want to start this post by stating nothing significant happened for bears today. I've been explaining recently how this sort of reaction to the level we were at would be most common.
There are times when the low is made now. As I write this, we trade on support. In a 2021-esk move, we'd be at the low.
In the statistically most common SPX move, we'd be in the first break the 5500.
In the doom move, we'd be entering into a consistent downtrend that would have shallow bounces, a bigger trappier bounce around 5700 and then enter into a period of serious outright capitulation. The type of action almost never seen in indices. I believe contingent on the preceding action hitting this would be a highly probable event on the break.
If we're in a big bear move then it HAS TO BE the case that the first drop was a leg one of Elliot downtrend or a leg A of a correction.
This leg would have to be either the C leg or the 3 leg. Both of those would be capitulation events - and be headline making crashes. Like mainstream news sort of deals.
These moves would be characterised by consistent and strong selling. Only shallow bounces.
If these things are not happening, then it's not a good idea to be a bear.
If these things are happening, trying to buy the dip might get you nailed.
I'll tell you here and now, if the bear break thesis is correct - lots of people will end up margin called.
They will buy the dip and then think they can average out of it buying more and there will not be deep enough rallies to accommodate this.
They'll progressively pick up bigger and bigger positions. Hope and feel it's all over on the first major bounce and then the worst part of the trend will come.
If the sell off is strong, people should respect the risk of it.
To end on an optimistic note - if we make a low somewhere in the area we traded today that is almost always bullish. I'd certainly be bull bias to a new high and if we break the classic spike out risk I'd be ultra bullish.
I strongly believe the trend for the following couple years will be set in this area. I think that's been foreseeable for years. If the downside risk can be overcome - I think the easy bull markets that followed would surpass the ones we've seen.
Or this could become the worse sell off you've seen in SPX.
It's not a time to be overly cocky. Protect risk and be ready to benefit from any outcome.
Big money is likely to be available within the next 9 months. Next 3 if it's a bear thing.
SPX Down/Gold UpWIth the move down on SP500 overnight, gold rallied. Both look like they may be nearing the end of the move down so caution is necessary.
SPX (S&P 500) – Double Top Rejection or Fakeout? Major BreakdownThe S&P 500 just got REJECTED at the key supply zone near 5,842, a level we’ve tested multiple times since Q1. This looks like a potential double top, and the rejection wick is no joke!
Here’s what’s cooking:
1. Strong Supply Rejection:
Price failed to break and hold above the 5,842 level – this zone has now acted as a wall for weeks. Clear signs of exhaustion from the bulls.
2. Bearish Setup in Play:
If price fails to reclaim 5,842 fast, there’s room to fall toward:
5,044.09 – Previous breakout zone
4,091.47 – Major demand (high volume node & previous consolidation base)
3. Clean Risk-to-Reward Bearish Play:
Short entries from the supply zone with stops above recent highs could offer great R:R down to the 4,000 zone.
4. Macro Context:
This rejection comes at a time when economic uncertainty is rising – a correction may already be in motion. Watch for institutional exits.
Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish below 5,842
Confirmation: Break and close below 5,700 for momentum
Target Zones: 5,044 and 4,091
Invalidation: Daily close above 5,900
Is SPX done pumping or will bulls defend?
Drop your thoughts – Short or Long?
Like & follow for real-time updates!
SPX updateI expect a correction to retest 5400 area before last bullish leg to new ATH@6180 then in my view bearish cycle will start and push SPX to at least 4100 area
401K drop in 2022The drop in 401Ks during 2022 was tied to the S&P 500. This chart is just showing that the drop during that time was really just testing the bottom support of the upward channel. Support was not broken and went on to continue in an overall uptrend.
Has the S&P 500 rally ended?The US stock indices saw a noticeable drop in recent trading sessions, as markets wait for President Donald Trump’s new tax plan and its implications for US debt.
The S&P 500 had surged more than 23% since April, but the rally seems to have ended from a technical point of view, reflecting rising concerns about the US economy.
A bearish divergence appeared while prices were making higher highs, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was making lower highs. This is a negative signal, and it played out clearly, pushing the index down to a new low. This suggests that bearish momentum is still strong.
What’s the possible next move?
Any current rise in the market may just be a temporary correction in a larger downtrend. A key resistance level for the S&P 500 is 5,937.55, which is 78% of the recent move based on Fibonacci retracement. The price could react negatively there, either with a small pullback or by continuing the downward trend toward 5,850.23.
However, if the price rises above 5,971.53 and closes above it on the daily chart, the negative outlook would be invalidated, and it could signal the beginning of a new upward trend.
