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Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why. From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000. Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
SPx 4H / Toward ATH and Bearish SideS&P 500 Technical Analysis: Potential Shift from Bullish to Bearish Trend The S&P 500 is currently striving to reach its all-time high (ATH), but a bearish trend may emerge if the price stabilizes below 5675 or 5709. If this occurs, the index is expected to decline towards 5620 and 5584, with a break below 5584 signaling the start of a significant bearish trend for the week. On the other hand, if the price stabilizes above 5675, it could test 5709, and a sustained move above 5709 would indicate the beginning of a new bullish phase. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5644 Resistance Levels: 5675, 5709, 5732 Support Levels: 5620, 5584, 5525 Expected Trading Range for Today: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5584 and 5675. Current Trend: The market is expected to initially move bullishly towards the ATH, followed by a potential bearish reversal.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 H4 | Approaching all-time highSPX500 is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 5,673.64 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high. Stop loss is at 5,710.00 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level and the all-time high. Take profit is at 5,579.72 which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Short
by FXCM
SPX: pivoting is “nearing”The Jackson Hole Symposium is a yearly event closely watched by the markets. The speech held by Fed Chair Powell, revealed that the Fed is “nearing” its first rate cut. Markets are now almost sure that the Fed will make such a decision at their September FOMC meeting. The US equity markets reacted positively to Powell`s rhetoric, bringing the S&P 500 to the level of 5.634. The index gained 1,45% for the week, and is nearing its all time highest level reached during July this year at the level of 5.668. Once again tech stocks were the ones that pushed the market to the upside. Nvidia and Tesla were higher by 4% over the week. Also other stocks were finishing the week higher, supported by the investor`s expectations that the environment of increased interest rates will support the future growth of companies. Analysts from the Swiss UBS bank noted their expectations that the eroded interest rates on cash holdings will impact investors to switch their holdings back to the equity market, in expectation of higher returns. Still, it should be considered that some investors are still expecting a recession in the US.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 25th—> Aug 30th)Weekly Market Recap 🌐 Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 Market Overview: US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3% - 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4% **Economic Indicators:** - **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts. - **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut. - **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low. - **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. **Corporate News:** - **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories. - **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment. - **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined. - **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets. - **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. - **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges. - **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook. - **AMD:** Made headlines with a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports: - **U.S. Core PCE Inflation** - **U.S. Q2 GDP** - **U.S. Housing Data** - **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ), Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), Dell Technologies ( NYSE:DELL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Applying Technical Analysis on an index (discussion)This is a topic that keeps coming back into my mind. I am a believer in and user of TA, but the concept of applying it to indices keep haunting me. I googled it and found a few YouTube videos that did nothing to help. So I decided to put my thoughts down on paper. Here’s the thing, using the S&P500 as an example. In an uptrend, we know that the market in general is moving up. And vice versa in a downtrend. We also know that the S&P500 consists of 500 large companies, each with a life, business, earnings and share price movement of their own. Recently, a handful of tech companies have taken charge, accounting for about 35% (MotleyFool, July 2024), but that leaves 65% to the others. So how is it that technical analysts use their tools to predict the movement of an index, then it clearly has no direction of its own? Technical traders will look at support and resistance levels, directions, pullbacks, indicators and so on to try to predict future behavior. They will place their trades based on this. On stocks, commodities, FX. And on indices. And here’s my quarrel with myself: an index is a derivative, it is 100% dependent on the movements of the underlying assets, which in fact IS the index. An index has no will or movement of its own, it moves as the underlying moves. Again, using the S&P500 as an example, it is the combined movement of 500 stocks that move the index. If the S&P500 is approaching a level of resistance, that should be irrelevant. The index is like a puppet on a string, it has no influence of its moves. In theory, ALL of the 500 companies making up the index might not be near resistance (not likely, but in theory). So, the idea of an index bouncing off resistance makes no sense, it all depends on the action of the underlying assets. Yes, as Mag7 make up 35% of the index, their behavior weighs heavy, but in terms of TA for the index that does not matter. If all of them should happen to also meet resistance, there is still 65% of the index that might not be. In essence, TA should not work on an index. On a stock, traders make a direct impact on price and thereby charts, they are seamlessly connected. For an index, there is no such direct connection, it is through a number of underlying components, 500 of them in the case of S&P500. However, we know that TA is heavily used on indices, and sometimes actually work as well. Just to mention, I know you can trade indices “directly” via i.e. futures and CFDs, but these are derivatives of the index (which itself is a derivative...), and as such has no impact on the price or direction of the actual index. Statements like “the S&P500 is approaching a strong level of resistance, so we might see a pullback” puzzles me. The only way the S&P500 can experience a pullback is if the majority of the components, in terms of value, also experience a pullback. The index has no movement of its own, it has no free will. So why does it work? Before we dive into that, I must say that I mainly look at trend and general direction when trading indices. I rarely even consider support and resistance or any other factors. I sometimes look at the strength of a movement, but again any strength is dependent on the underlying, and so indicators i.e. applied to an index is of limited value as I see it. Why TA might work on indices is a complex topic, and there is no correct answer. One theory is that (still using S&P500 as example) when the S&P is approaching a level of resistance, it can make investors anxious. If they are long NVDA, MSFT, F, WMT, they might think they should sell or reduce their position. “The market is expected to pull back, better take profit, I can buy back after”. If enough investors do this, the index will do just as predicted. Also, if the market is making ATH after ATH, more people will want to get onboard, pushing the index even further. In closing, I looked at the 5-year chart of the S&P500. You must look really hard to find definitive levels of support and resistance, as can be seen from the chart. I would argue there are none. No levels being touched several times, no clear levels of bounce either up or down. Trend is present, but considering what I have discussed above, is this index related? Or is the index simply moving as the underlying is moving? Clearly the latter, as an index has no direction of its own. I am sure there are many views on this, as there should be. TA is a very subjective “science” and I expect many opposing views, especially on my last paragraph. It is highly welcome! I started this post being very uncertain what I think of TA applied to indices. As I was writing, thinking, considering, I have come closer to deciding where I stand on this.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by WeRideAtDawn
2
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD went up little more, made a small correction down and went up again. For next week we could see more upside for this pair to finish the impulsive leg. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the current week's trading session, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated notable resilience, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5564 and positioning itself beneath the attained Inner Index Rally at 5666. The prevailing price action indicates a sustained upward momentum aimed at retesting the completed Interim Index Rally at 5666, with an eye on the subsequent upside objectives represented by the Inner Index Rally at 5745 and the ultimate Outer Index Rally at 5840. It is important to note that the attainment of these targets is likely to prompt a selling price action.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
240823 Market Outlook $SPX $DJI $VOO $SPY $QQQChart S&P overlay Fed interest rate a few conclusions: 1. Stocks can rise and fall throughout rate cut cycle; 2. Rise in stocks is usually associated with minimum interest rate in the cycle; 3. US stocks were rising throughout rate hike cycle in later years; 4. More money supply management tools were introduced in last quarter century like QE policy; 5. More tools like Circuit Breaker were introduced to stop panic selling in US stocks since Financial crisis 2008; 6. The market has become more certain and efficient; 7. Investors must always recognize the market situation, cuz US management is research based and one cycle is different from another. A new prosperous cycle is enact at the moment. Cheers
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
Could this be a big bat pattern?SPX went parabolic after breaking the 1.61 of the bottoming swing. This move has now extended to the 2.61 of that fib set and currently sold off to under it. It's possible this is a bat pattern. If it is, then we probably made a high yesterday. One caveat of the bat to always keep in mind is if it fails it can evolve into a crab and when that happens you are essentially "Right" but you're going to get spiked out. Always a risk to keep in mind when trading a bat. We have a similar pattern in the DJI. Interestingly, we have not made as deep retracements in the RUT and Nasdaq. Nasdaq actually looking much like a classic bull trap. The possible Nasdaq bull trap and bat patterns in DJI and SPX resulted in me opening swing shorts in DJI, SPX and Nasdaq yesterday. Waiting to see if we can make the follow through break today. Will trail stops and add to positions if we do.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
11