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SPX trade ideas

SPX in daily charts Hello It's been a while the I am thinking to close my trading view page. If I am explaining it is to make a plan for some ideas I have published. It means that I have published a few ideas that might happen and because they are in big time frame I need to give a plan for next steps when I am not here anymore so please let me know if any of my ideas that was helpful for you. For this chart I predict another correction as wave IV and then last rise as wave V. This scenario would take a few months and then we might have a deep correction. Another scenario is to make higher levels and then we see a main correction. I expect deeper corrections for this movement. For investors, I recommend not to invest in stocks for long terms and please consider that these highs that main indices are experiencing comes from a minority high cap companies. For traders, it does not matter where market goes (short is mostly better) and they will find a way to make profits. Be safe and Happy.
FX:SPX500Short
by AMA_FX
S&P500 INDEX (SPX500): Waiting For Breakout⚠️The SPX500 is consolidating near a strong horizontal resistance level on the hourly chart. It has formed a pattern resembling an inverted head and shoulders, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A breakout above the neckline of the pattern, confirmed by a 1-hour candle closing above 5,231 - 5,256, is likely to trigger the next upward movement. The targets for this bullish move are the resistance levels at 5,324 and 5,400.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by linofx1
13
Does the Market Rally When the Fed Begins to Cut Rates?The relationship between rate cuts and the stock market, as illustrated in the provided graph, shows that major market declines often occur after the Federal Reserve pivots to lower interest rates. This pattern is evident in historical instances where the Fed's rate cuts were followed by significant drops in the S&P 500. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon, which are crucial for investors to understand. Economic Weakness: Rate cuts typically respond to economic slowdown or anticipated recession. Each instance of the Fed pivoting to lower rates (1969, 1973, 1981, 2000, 2007, 2019) corresponds to significant market declines soon after. Rate cuts signal concerns about economic health, causing investors to lose confidence, as reflected in the graph. Delayed Impact: Rate cuts do not immediately stimulate the economy; it takes time for their effects to propagate. The graph shows that the majority of the market decline occurs after the Fed's pivot, indicating that initial rate cuts were insufficient to halt the downturn. During this lag period, the market may continue to decline as economic data reflects ongoing weakness. Investor Sentiment: Rate cuts can trigger fear among investors, who interpret the move as an indication of severe economic issues. The graph shows substantial percentage drops in the S&P 500 following each pivot, demonstrating how negative sentiment can exacerbate declines. The fear of a worsening economy leads to a sell-off in stocks, contributing to further market drops. Credit Conditions: During economic stress, banks may tighten lending standards, reducing the effectiveness of rate cuts. Post-rate cut periods in the graph align with times of economic stress, where credit conditions likely tightened. Businesses and consumers may not be able to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, limiting economic recovery and impacting the market negatively. Historical examples such as the crises in 2000 and 2007 highlight substantial market drops after rate cuts, as seen in the graph. In both cases, the rate cuts responded to bursting bubbles (tech bubble in 2000, housing bubble in 2007), and the economic fallout was too severe for rate cuts to provide immediate relief. The graph underscores that while rate cuts aim to stimulate the economy, they often follow significant economic downturns. Investors should be cautious, recognizing that initial market reactions to rate cuts can be negative due to perceived economic weakness, delayed policy impact, and deteriorating sentiment.
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by MarkitMaven
5
SPX: Sector Performance and Economic OutlookThe chart shows the strong past performance of the Energy and Technology sectors, which have significantly outpaced the S&P 500. Technology saw a 55% increase in 2023 and continued to perform well into 2024. Energy, despite some volatility, remains strong due to high oil prices and investments in production infrastructure. On the other hand, sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate have underperformed, showing steady but modest growth compared to other sectors. Looking ahead, the outlook for Technology, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary sectors is bearish. Rising inflation and the potential for a recession are expected to drive these sectors lower. Meanwhile, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate are anticipated to continue their upward trend due to their defensive nature. Financials, Communications, and Industrials are likely to remain stable without significant moves until there are interest rate cuts. Given the current economic conditions, it's prudent to focus on more stable investments amid ongoing inflation and recession concerns.
SP:SPX
by MarkitMaven
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
Are We There Yet? A Market Top ExposeAfter re-calculations and re-assessing, I think I am ready to move forward. I have moved off my position that the 2022 correction was a Supercycle 2 correction and macro market top. I would be on the bandwagon the market is primed to move up indefinitely if not for the massive amounts of debt and cautious discretionary spending. I am still in the camp of prices and wages requiring a re-balance. Companies will have to lower their prices to meet customers at a more realistic price point. The companies that fail to get to that price point will go out of business. I am settling on the side of Supercycle I ending very soon and a larger corrective Supercycle II will take hold next. I am at this position due to the location of important wave 3s in the following chart: My wave 3 indicator at the bottom will paint a light blue background at potential wave 3s. Close gaps between painted backgrounds are common at wave 3 of 3s as is observed by the yellow line around August 2021. The strongest point on the RSI and my wave 3 indicator generally occurs at wave 3 of 3 of 3 (and more levels of 3) which occurred with the white line in January 2018. Additional wave 3 indicators occurred in late 2013 and early 2014 which were likely in the fifth wave of Cycle wave 1. Based on this premise, Cycle wave 3 likely ended in January 2022 and the October low was Cycle wave 4. This would put the market in Cycle wave 5 currently. Cycle wave 1 lasted 5-6 years, while wave 3 did the same. Cycle wave 5 does not have to last long, but there is always a chance it does something similar. Currently, we are just over a year and a half into this wave which may be too quick for it to end. So far we can see a 5 wave structure on the weekly chart. In this 5 wave structure, wave 1 had a wave extension, likely indicating waves 3 and 5 will be shorter in length. The wave 3 indicator has a gap between painted backgrounds in March of this year indicating this was possibly wave 3 and wave 3 of 3. Wave 4 likely bottomed with the low in April. This would place us currently in wave 5. The main question is if all five of these waves are Primary waves inside of the final cycle wave or if these are Intermediate waves inside of the First Primary wave. The pullback in consumer spending has me believing we are closer to the end of a major cycle instead of in the early stages of a multi-year bullish cycle. Additionally, even though the year over year inflation rate is no longer as high of a number, inflation has not actually declined yet as prices continue constantly go up. Furthermore, the year over year inflation rate remains higher than the year over year retail sales numbers. If things were healthy as the talking heads make it seem, retail sales rate should be higher than the rate of inflation as this would show people are spending more money than they are losing to inflation. This is not the case which is why I think a major re-balancing (and yes recession) must still occur. I could be wrong as I have been, or my inaccuracies have been delayed to this point. In trying to identify the current wave 5, I have switched over to the SPX500USD chart to find potential wave 3s and 3 of 3s. The major wave 3s in this fifth wave are identified by the vertical white lines. It looks like the wave extension once again resides in the first wave. Wave 3 of 3 for wave 1 was on May 7th. Wave 3 of 3 of 3 was on June 6, and wave 3 ended on June 12. If these are true, the major fourth wave likely ended at the June 14 low. This once again places us currently in the fifth wave. This is the fifth wave of a wave 5. The question remains as to how large will the next correction be. The current top on the SPX500USD chart is 5530 from June 28th, but it will likely change before week's end with potential decreases in holiday trading volume. On the main chart, I have plotted out potential Fib levels (noted on the right side) for a fifth wave extension if Cycle wave 3 ran from the 2016 low to the January 2022 top. 123.6% of this movement is where we currently are and can be a potential major wave 5 end point. The next Fib of interest would be 138.20% which is near 5967 (indicating much more bullish activity ahead). Regardless, a downturn is likely coming soon. If it starts within the next few weeks, the bottom could occur within the next 2-3 years. If the market blows past the current top, we will likely have a few more years of upward movement followed by a 3-5 year drop thereafter. A large drop now will not be great, but the economies of the country and world could "right themselves" in a quicker manner which would be best for everyone instead of longer and more drawn out. We shall see what happens, as I have been wrong plenty of times in the past. I can keep calling for a drop and will eventually be correct, but the batting average would not even be worthy of the minor leagues.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
The Charts Predicted the Market Sell-Off!While many are attributing the recent sell-off in stock markets to fears of a recession following last week's weak economic data, I believe the bearish trend was already unfolding in the US stock markets. On July 22, 2024, I wrote: "Following Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential election, a recovery in the US stock markets is anticipated. However, recent developments on equity charts are concerning. The Nasdaq has experienced a significant failure at the top of a 9-month trend, with the rejection appearing directional. Additionally, the weekly S&P chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential losses back to at least the 5350 mark of the 2024 uptrend, with the possibility of a deeper sell-off." Given the capitulation of other stock markets and the rapid sell-off in the S&P, which easily broke the 2023-2024 uptrend, we now expect the market to decline further and mean-revert to the 55-week moving average at 4887 and the 4818 peak of 2022. This suggests at least another 5-6% sell-off. Sorry guys but the charts called it! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CBOE:SPXShort
by The_STA
1
The end of the bull?The stock market sell-off in the latter part of last week accelerated overnight. A collapse in Japan’s Nikkei contributed to steep falls across all US stock index futures. Once again, the tech sector is leading the way down, just as it led the march up. But there is no evidence that investors are rotating out of tech and into US mid-caps anymore. This morning both the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 had lost around 4% in early trade, with the Dow and S&P 500 following closely behind. This is clearly a ‘risk-off’ move across equities. But investors are also cutting their exposure to such ‘safe havens’ as precious metals, as gold and silver are down sharply, as is oil. The main beneficiary in all this is the bond market. Yields have slumped over the last few trading sessions as investors price in the prospect of sharply lower interest rates, as recent data weakness has boosted recession fears. There’s also the ‘flight-to-quality’ aspect, where funds coming out of equities are parked in bills, notes and bonds until investors get some clarity over how much more stock market downside there may be. The yield on the key 10-year Treasury Note has dropped to 3.74% this morning, its lowest level since July last year. There have been a combination of factors triggering the moves. There have been some disappointing Q2 earnings reports, particularly from amongst the ‘Magnificent Seven’, while recent economic data releases suggest an economy that is slowing rapidly. Despite a strong Q2 GDP report, which is backward-looking anyway, last week brought poor manufacturing, labour and construction numbers, topped by Friday’s weaker than expected payroll update. This big ‘derisking’ also coincides with the move into peak summer. At some stage, buyers will come back in to take advantage of ‘knock-down’ prices. But there’s no sign that the major indices have stabilised yet. The bigger question is whether this bloodletting will prove sufficient to provide a basis for a resumption of the stock market rally, and ultimately fresh record highs. The alternative is that the top is in, and investors will have to adapt their outlook, and strategies, accordingly.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by muggins
Jobs Data Giving Recession Vibe. Is the Fed Late to Act (Again)?Why does it seem like the Fed is playing catch-up with the economy? In 2021 and 2022, the US central bank was jamming stimulus at a fast clip. Suddenly it stopped and reversed course to raise interest rates at never-before-seen speed (that’s when officials were saying inflation was transitory). Now, the skyrocketing interest rates are threatening to derail the economy. Or worse — throw it in a recession. The red-hot US labor market is no more. Or at least there wasn’t anything red-hot for America’s workers and job seekers in July (except for maybe the coast-to-coast summer heat). And now financial markets are in limbo. America’s employers added just 114,000 new hires to the workforce — a far cry from the expected 174,000 and even that consensus view was soft. The bigger-then expected slump in US jobs growth fanned concerns over a flailing economy and there was one major player to pin the blame on — the Federal Reserve. What’s the Fed? The Federal Reserve, or just the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Its daily grind is to keep the economy from veering off a cliff or overheating like a meme stock on WallStreetBets. The Fed is currently headed by Jerome Powell, or Jay Powell, or even JPow if you’re cool enough, and serves a dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. For about a year, markets have been building up the conviction that the Federal Reserve should start thinking about cutting rates. But for months, the Fed didn’t even think about talking about cutting rates as a flurry of economic indicators was more or less suggesting that one slash might be a good idea. And now markets fear it may be too late for that. The steep drop in the employment figure for July suggested that the economy has started to crack under the pressure of interest rates sitting at a 23-year high of 5.50%. When rates are high they make borrowing more expensive and discourage businesses and consumers from taking out loans to run their lives better. Instead, they shove their cash in deposit accounts and generate passive, risk-free yield. In a nutshell, high rates = economic contraction; low rates = economic expansion. When rates stay higher for longer, the Fed runs the risk of tilting the economy into the very recession it is fiercely trying to avoid. Talk About Bad Timing The timing for that jobs data couldn’t have been more inconvenient. July’s nonfarm payrolls arrived just two days after the Fed praised the growth of the economy and voted against reducing its benchmark interest rate. To defend this decision, Chairman Jay Powell said that his clique of top central bankers need more good data that shows inflation is heading down toward the bank’s 2% goal. He also went on to say that he “wouldn’t like to see material further cooling in the labor market.” The press conference after that rate call did end on a high note. The Fed boss noted that an interest rate cut was on the table at the next meeting slated for mid-September. The issue, however, is whether a single 25-basis-point cut, as communicated, will be enough. Markets have already ramped up bets for a juicier 50-basis-point reduction to borrowing costs — a more aggressive monetary policy measure that will provide a stronger lean against a faltering economy. And while the difference between jobs added and jobs expected might be a factor, the severe pullback seems more about investors throwing a tantrum. "You should've cut rates, now deal with our unusually strong reaction as we make a statement," kind of play. The painful scenario where the Fed may have fallen behind the curve shook Wall Street and spread into global markets. Stocks in the US are in a free fall. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slipped into correction territory, dropping 10% from its peak in mid-July. Tech giants , the main driver of the broad-based gains across the major US indexes, are heavily battered. But the selloff is widespread, jolting everything from stocks , to the US dollar to Bitcoin . Add to this an earnings season weighed by investor concerns over spending on artificial intelligence and you’ve got quite a few things to consider before you jump into your favorite stock out there. What Do You Think? Do you think the Fed will trim rates by a bigger 50-basis-point cut in September or even introduce an urgent interest rate cut before their next regular meeting? And are you comfortable betting on beaten-down equities across the board? Let us know your comments below!
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-5 : The Shot Across The Bow.Watch this video. I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet. I've gotten a lot of comments about how my SPY Cycle Patterns have NOT been working out over the past 10+ days and I want to address that. The SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Gann & Fibonacci price structures/patterns. They reflect "Normal market psychology" and attempt to provide a guide as to what to expect within normal market rotation/trends. Nothing has been "normal" over the past 3+ weeks. It all started when Biden dropped out of the race for POTUS. Then, the real shot across the bow was the Bank Of Japan warning the rest of the world "hey, you may need to start aggressively defending your currencies against devaluation risks". If you really understand what that means, you'll understand the panic process that is playing out right now. But, I urge all of you to think about "what changed over the past 3 weeks". That is the question I keep asking myself. What changed is uncertainty (the Kamala-Crush) and the BOJ signaling foreign markets to prepare to defend the value of your currency against the US-Dollar. And I believe the panic-mode will subside very quickly as global asset prices drop. Falling prices mean stocks move into undervalued price territory. That also means smart traders BUY INTO this weakness for the longer-term ROI potential. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
4
SPX500 to continue in the downward move?US500 - 24H expiry Traded to the lowest level in 12 weeks. We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 5136 from 4930 to 5680. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs. We look to set shorts at our bespoke indicator level (5273). We look to Sell at 5273 (stop at 5321) Our profit targets will be 5150 and 5136 Resistance: 5273 / 5338 / 5404 Support: 5175 / 5136 / 5091 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by OANDA