SPX trade ideas
SPX update - retesting 6000 before 6340In my updated view we can see a retest o 5995-6000 area before dump to 3340 where last bullish leg will start to new ATH @6444
SPX retesting 5900 before dumping to 5200 areaIN my view SPX could retest 5900-5910 area before new bearish leg to 5230 area where last bullish wave will start to final tp 6444
BUY AND HOLD UNTIL OCTOBER 2025Price is scheduled to break above the current high for a 7-month run, price top is expected between 6588 and 6680 range for a steep correction. Tariffs and recession chants will have their day but history shows post war cycles never go south.
Trade safe, good luck
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post.
⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
S&P 500 Technical Breakdown – Bearish Momentum Building?Looking at this SPX Daily Chart, we’re seeing some clear signs of weakness in the market.
🔹 Breakdown from the Rising Channel – After months of uptrend, SPX has broken below its previous rising channel, signaling potential downside ahead.
🔹 Failed Recovery Attempt – The recent bounce formed a bear flag (highlighted in brown), but today’s sharp drop indicates that the relief rally has been rejected.
🔹 Key Fibonacci Levels in Play –
The 0.382 Fib retracement was acting as support, but price has now slipped below it.
Next key level: The 0.5 Fib (around 5,550) and the 0.618 Fib (near 5,438) could act as crucial support zones.
A deeper retracement to 4,982 (0.786 Fib) isn't out of the question if selling pressure accelerates.
🔹 Moving Averages & Volume –
The price is now under the 200-day moving average (blue line), which is typically a bearish signal if confirmed.
Volume has been increasing on red days, hinting at stronger selling conviction.
🔹 Support & Resistance Zones –
Resistance: ~5,822 (recent bounce level) and ~6,097 (previous high)
Support: ~5,402 and ~4,982 if selling intensifies.
🚨 Final Thoughts: The technical structure is turning bearish, and if the S&P 500 doesn’t reclaim key levels soon, further downside could be on the horizon. Bulls need to step in fast to avoid a deeper correction.
S&P entering rough path in 2025 It seems S&P is going through a soft bounce back after selloff towards 10W MA around 58-5900 levels. This could be the strong rejection leading to summer lows around 52-5300 range .
If Macro is promising could resume bull run by providing good entry otherwise a recovery towards 5600 which eventually sees 4800 or 2021 ATH making a long range for 4-5 years providing 2026 to reach towards 5800 level by end of December 2026 and giving a new ATH only in 2027 .
SPX500 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
SPX500 has been in a strong downtrend, and the price has already broken the 5,599.30 support level, confirming further bearish momentum. The next key support to watch is 5,506.40 (2025 lowest point).
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 5,599.30 (now turned resistance), 5,679.90
📉 Support: 5,506.40 – If broken, the sell-off could accelerate further.
🔹 Market Structure:
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Since 5,599.30 has already been broken, the price is likely to continue down to 5,506.40. A break below this level could push the market into new 2025 lows.
🚀 Bullish scenario: If the market pulls back above 5,599.30 and reclaims it as support, a temporary bounce to 5,679.90 could occur.
📌 Risk Management:
-Wait for price action confirmation before entering new positions.
-Monitor for potential retests of broken levels.
5600 Really needs to hold...If this 5600 level breaks, I expect the decline to continue until may with support around 5400, 5200, and 5000 with 5200 being most likely.
The market was hoping for consistent messaging from the Fed, which it did not get. The data shows that inflation is accelerating in the face of job cuts which makes their job very difficult. The are not helping with their rhetoric that the data is 'transitory'. The market is not enjoying their 'vibe' driven analysis.
Volatility is bid for April and May, giving bears ammo for another leg lower.
vixcentral.com
The measured move and several demand zones sit around 5200.
GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.GENERATIONAL unwind in stock markets starting.
This capital rotation is a VERY rare macro event, which very few traders have previously lived through.
Is your financial advisor AWARE of this?
My last warning To Donald Trump and Americansif you Attack Iran's infrastructure, America enters a shitty situation that will last for not years but for decades. you can fix the problem by supporting the Iran's King Reza Pahlavi and the people and the mullahs will be overthrown easily but you are Unknowingly doing it in a very wrong way, if you do it Stockholm syndrome will happen.
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Price has ping on the channel edges. I hope it becomes just a simple correction but Americans ego is is in line with technicals.
This doesn't look good for SPX500USDHi traders,
The price action of SPX500USD last week went exactly as what I've said in my outlook.
I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what would be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Price went corrective up, rejected from the Weekly FVG higher and dropped!
So next week we could see more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P500 IndexIf the midline of the linear regression channel is broken, the price will continue to decline until it reaches the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
In the less likely event that this support line is also broken, we have the support line of the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
