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24-Hour Short-Term Risk-on Risk-off Forecast for 30/10/2024Market sentiment appears to show mixed signals, with both risk-on and risk-off characteristics evident across various assets. Today’s sentiment leans towards mixed or cautious optimism, with selective risk-on trading tempered by defensive positioning amid global uncertainties. Investors are showing restrained enthusiasm for growth assets but continue to hedge in safe-havens due to unpredictable economic and geopolitical factors. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:SPX
by AfreeBit
S&P 500TREND ; The S&P 500 index is currently in an uptrend (Bullish), characterized by higher highs and higher lows since mid-August. PLAN : • The support zone around 5,670 acted as a base for a recent upward move. • The 5,870 level seems to be a key resistance area, and price is currently testing this level. • If the price breaks above the 5,870 resistance level, my potential target will be around 5,989.15. • Note that the blue arrow indicates the measured move from the support level at 5,750 up to the resistance at 5,870, which could imply the projected target if this breakout occurs.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by juniormoseki1
Market dynamics and Fed's role - Trump Re-ElectionRecent polls and market predictions have fueled speculations of a potential re-election for former U.S. President Donald Trump, with investors eyeing so-called “Trump trades” — strategies that typically involve a stronger dollar, reduced interest rates, and a preference for U.S. stocks over international ones. While these investments appear to be gaining momentum, there are concerns among financial institutions that they may have already reached their peak, potentially limiting gains in the near future. However, a significant factor adding complexity to this landscape is the role of the Fed and its influence on economic performance through its monetary policies. The Fed’s recent rate cuts, inflation control, and employment policies could have a decisive impact on both “Trump trades” and broader market stability. The Fed’s Dual Mandate: Inflation Control and Full Employment The U.S. Federal Reserve operates with a dual mandate: to maintain an annual inflation rate of 2% as measured by the Consumer Price Index and to sustain full employment, although it doesn’t set a specific target for the unemployment rate. When the CPI strays too far from the 2% goal, or if there are dramatic shifts in employment, the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate to influence economic conditions. In 2022, the CPI hit a 40-year high of 8%, prompting a swift response from the Fed. Contributing factors included the trillions of dollars injected into the economy during 2020 and 2021 to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, near-zero interest rates, and quantitative easing measures that flooded the financial system with liquidity. In response, the Fed raised the federal funds rate to 5.33%, marking a two-decade high. This aggressive policy adjustment has since helped bring the CPI down to an annualized rate of 2.4% as of September 2024, aligning closer to the Fed’s target. September Rate Cut and Market Expectations for November In light of these trends, the Federal Open Market Committee at the Fed decided to cut the federal funds rate by half a percentage point in its September meeting. The upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for early November raises the question of whether another rate cut could be imminent. Given that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, a further rate cut seems likely. Moreover, with the unemployment rate climbing from 3.7% to 4.1% this year, there are signs of potential weakening in the job market, reinforcing the need for the Fed to support economic growth before further job losses occur. Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the downside risks to employment have increased, which might justify additional rate reductions. According to the FOMC’s September projections, there could be another 50 basis points of cuts before year’s end. With only November and December meetings remaining, most predictions suggest two 25-basis-point cuts in each session. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool reflects a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week, with a 78% likelihood of a similar cut in December. Impact of Rate Cuts on Trump Trades and Broader Markets These potential rate cuts have mixed implications for "Trump trades." Lower interest rates can benefit U.S. stocks in the long run by reducing borrowing costs for businesses, boosting their capacity for growth, and increasing consumer spending power. This environment would likely favor sectors central to “Trump trades” — primarily energy, finance, and certain defensive industries — especially if Trump secures re-election. On the other hand, if Harris wins, analysts anticipate a more balanced international investment landscape, which could weaken the dollar and shift investment attractiveness from U.S. to international stocks. Harris’s policies, expected to support environmentally friendly sectors and lessen trade tensions, may also benefit industries outside the U.S., including healthcare and manufacturing. Long-Term Rate Cuts and Economic Growth Outlook Looking beyond this year, the FOMC’s forecast indicates the possibility of an additional 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, with a final 25-basis-point cut in 2026. If realized, this would bring the federal funds rate to approximately 2.88%, nearly halving it from its recent peak. Historically, such reductions support stock markets, enhancing growth across various sectors by enabling corporations to expand with cheaper credit and improve profitability with lower interest costs. Still, investors remain cautious. Rate cuts are favorable for stocks only when economic conditions are stable. If further unemployment spikes indicate deeper economic challenges, investors could pull back, particularly from “Trump trades,” opting for safer assets amid heightened uncertainty. Preparing for Market Adjustments Based on Election Outcomes As the November elections draw near, markets remain highly sensitive to both political forecasts and the Fed’s rate decisions. While “Trump trades” show ongoing upward momentum, the potential for an investment realignment looms based on the election outcome. Investors are preparing for scenarios under both Trump and Harris, each with profound implications for the U.S. and global economy. In either case, the Fed’s monetary policy — and its influence over inflation and employment — will be crucial in shaping the investment landscape for the coming years.
SP:SPXLong
by kgougakis
SPX500 H4 | Falling to 38.2% Fibonacci supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,807.01 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 5,760.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Take profit is at 5,881.22 which is a swing-high resistance close to the all-time high. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
ALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wkALL STAR EARNINGS WEEK! Option Market pricing a 1.8% move/wk Key earnings this week : Tuesday: Alphabet after close Visa Wednesday: Microsoft After close Meta Thursday: Amazon After close Apple Economic Calendar key events this week : Tuesday: 10:00 am Consumer confidence Wednesday: 8:30 am GDP Thursday: 8:30 am PCE index 8:30 am PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Core PCE index 8:30 am Core PCE (year-over-year) 8:30 am Initial jobless claims Friday: 8:30 am U.S. employment report As well of End of Month and Elections following Tuesday on Nov 5. Volatile week equals opportunity for day traders. Stay Frosty!
SP:SPX
by Beyond_Charts
$SPX The Hundred Years TrendThat's right.. The sheep were told we broke through the great depression trendline and to prepare themselves for a new paradigm.. As you can see we have broken through one of the great depression trendlines. And Still you can see we have one to go.. Our last touch of this trendline ended up with a stiff rejection, and we are dangerously close to another fatal kiss. If you haven't taken out a heavy long term short to cover life's everything, it might be too late. Only the strong will survive. Are you Strong?
SP:SPXShort
by Midgar-
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!. Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one. 6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SP:SPXLong
by WinnerTrader99
SPX500USD Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 5,836.4. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 5,891.1 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SignalProvider
1
The bulls need to reclaim 5815! Structurally, the SPX has printed a higher low compared to the previous day, with the weekly low at 5863 and the higher low at 5785. A break below 5800 opens the door to 5785; a break below 5785, implies an outside day with major support at 5765/5760. If bulls cannot reclaim the 5815/5825 zone, this would be interpreted as a backtest of the breakdown zone from Wednesday. Dealer Gamma remains more neutral than imbalanced, but flows are destabilizing. There is potential for significant directional or flash moves as dealers chase deltas, selling weakness and buying strength. Since VIX remains elevated, 19 and the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) is at a premium, implied volatility could be an exacerbating factor in both directions. The upside is heavily dependent on a vol down environment. A reclaim of the 5815 Flip (dealer transition) often attracts volatility sellers, which could trigger a sharp upside squeeze. Vol crush Friday?
SP:SPX
by 0dteTraders
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels and Targets for 10.24.24OK, so in SPX, here we also closed right at the bottom of the implied move for the week, which is 5800. If you've been watching the videos you know how we got that number. That's the number right in the middle of the trading range. Above us, we have the 30-minute moving average and the 35 EMA; they are both in today's trading range, and the way they interact is very important. If the 35 EMA crosses underneath the 30-minute moving average, we have gone bearish. We could also bounce here, which futures suggest, and if the 35 EMA bounces on the 30-minute moving average, then we will resume upwards or keep consolidating here. As long as the 35EMA is above the 30min 200MA we are bullish on this timeframe. The top of the implied move is 5840, and 5850 on Friday's contract. If we do trade up today, I would be looking at 5845-5855 bear spreads. And if we drop, the one-hour 200 is underneath us, ready to catch us. The bottom of the implied move is 5750 and 5740 on Friday's contract. Here again, if we drop, I'll probably be looking at 5745-5735 bull put spreads. Also, guys I didn't add this to the chart above but we do have a bear gap at the very top of the training range from yesterday. GL today, y'all
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading