$SPX // June 10 2025 // Analysis & Targets for Day TradersWow!!! What a day!! This is the chart from premarket, and you can see that 35EMA catching us all day. The setup was there. Good Game!!
My 6050/6065 bear call spreads paid today!!
SPX trade ideas
S&P 500 & Indexes Breakdown + Trade SetupsIn this video, I dive into the S&P 500 and other major indexes to share my current market outlook. Right now, price action is stalling and volume continues to dry up — a signal that we could be due for a deeper pullback before any continuation to the upside.
📌 With global fundamentals such as:
US–China trade tensions
Russia–Ukraine war
Broader geopolitical risks
…it’s hard to ignore the pressure building. That’s why I lean bearish in the short term, expecting potential downside before any breakout to new highs.
⚠️ Of course, trying to short in this slow grind can feel like catching a falling knife — but I’ve prepped a few setups, all broken down in the video based on solid technical confluences.
Watch the full breakdown and let me know your thoughts.
Thanks for tuning in! 🙏
👇 Drop a comment, like, and subscribe for more market breakdowns.
#SP500 #IndexBreakdown #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeSetups #BearishBias #VolumeAnalysis #GeoPolitics #SwingTrading #TradingCommunity #TradingView
SPX500 weekly overviewThis 6,136.54 calculated by 4821.59 and 3506.64 and worked really well as top of the SPX500!
Expect the zone around that line! All zones could be chosen to long the instrument.
4821.59 * 2 - 3506.64 = 6,136.54
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Morning market ideasSPX could be finished overnight but the cash session may try to equal the overnight high. Gold is coming up to heavy resistance. Oil Looks to be heading towards 66 and maybe more. BTC looks like it may drop again but right now it's at support. Natural Gas is likely going to drop.
S&P500 No signs of stopping here. Can hit 6900 before years end.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support, successfully testing it and holding and is now going for the All Time High Resistance test. Based on its 1W RSI structure and candle action, it resembles the previous times since 2023 that after a quick consolidation, it broke upwards again aggressively.
As you can see, both of those Bullish Legs that started on the 2023 Higher Lows trend-line, hit at least their 1.618 Fibonacci extension before a new 3-week red pull-back. In the case of 2024, even the 2.0 Fib ext got hit a little later.
As a result, we expect to see at least 6900 (Fib 1.618) before the end of 2025, with the good case scenario (Fib 2.0) going as high as 7500.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
S&P500 INTRADAY uptrend continuation supported at 5960Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6120
Resistance Level 2: 6170
Resistance Level 3: 6220
Support Level 1: 5960
Support Level 2: 5900
Support Level 3: 5800
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
A Potentially Dangerous Pattern Takes ShapeWhile the futures market has yet to break into new all-time high territory, the previously discussed bearish micro setup has now been invalidated. In its place, we’re witnessing a complex, overlapping advance—creeping steadily toward the prior highs in the S&P 500 (ES).
At the micro level, I currently see no compelling bearish setup. However, this grinding upward move—lacking strong conviction from either buyers or sellers—is not necessarily bullish. In fact, it’s a hallmark of a potentially dangerous pattern: a primary degree ending diagonal.
If my interpretation is correct, both the “orange” and “purple” wave counts point to the same ominous conclusion. They suggest that what we're seeing could culminate in a sharp, possibly violent reversal—one that would ultimately retrace back to where this entire primary wave began. For reference, that’s just above 4,000, marked by the conclusion of Primary Wave 4 in October 2022.
This is the moment for caution—not after the damage is done.
Yes, we may push into new all-time highs. But within this fragile and overlapping structure, that outcome is far from guaranteed. Even if we get there, the looming question remains:
At what cost?
SPX500 Holds Steady as Markets Eye US-China Trade Developments SPX500 Overview
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited key developments from the U.S.-China trade talks underway in London.
Technical Outlook (4H Chart):
The index is experiencing cautious movement amid ongoing tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained 4H close above 6030 could confirm bullish momentum, with upside targets at 6066 and 6098, potentially extending toward a new all-time high (ATH).
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price remains below 6010, bearish momentum may persist, targeting the support levels at 5966, followed by 5938 and 5902.
Support: 5966 • 5938 • 5902
Resistance: 6066 • 6098
S&P 500 Short Update: Ending DiagonalEnding diagonals completed. Stop above 6040. Take profit at 5744 first.
Position Sizing 101: How Not to Blow Up Your Account OvernightWelcome to the trading equivalent of wearing a seatbelt. Not really exciting but entirely recommended for its lifesaving properties. When the market crashes into your stop-loss at 3:47 a.m., you’ll wish you’d taken this lesson seriously.
Let’s talk position sizing — the least flashy but most essential tool in your trading kit. This is your friendly reminder that no matter how perfect your chart setup looks, if you’re risking 50% of your capital on a single trade, you’re not trading. You’re gambling. And also — if you lose 50% of your account, you have to gain 100% to get even.
✋ “Sir, This Isn’t a Casino”
Let’s start with a story.
New trader. Fresh demo account turned real. He sees a clean breakout. He YOLOs half his account into Tesla ( TSLA ). "This is it," he thinks, "the trade that changes everything."
News flash: it did change everything — his $10,000 account turned into $2,147 in 48 hours.
The lesson? Position sizing isn’t just about managing capital. It’s about managing ego. Because the market doesn’t care how convinced you are.
🌊 Risk of Ruin: The More You Know
There’s a lovely concept in trading called “risk of ruin.” Sounds dramatic — and it is. It refers to the likelihood of your account going to zero if you keep trading the way you do.
If you risk 10% of your account on every trade, you only need to be wrong a few times in a row to go from “pro trader” to “Hey, ChatGPT, is trading a scam?”
Risking 1–2% per trade, however? Now we’re talking sustainability. Now you can be wrong ten times in a row and still live to click another chart.
🎯 The Math That Saves You
Let’s illustrate the equation:
Position size = Account size × % risk / (Entry – Stop Loss)
Example: $10,000 account, risking 1%, with a 50-point stop loss on a futures trade.
$10,000 × 0.01 = $100
$100 / 50 = 2 contracts
That’s it. No Fibonacci razzle-dazzle or astrology needed. Just basic arithmetic and a willingness to not be a hero.
🤔 The Myth of Conviction
Every trader has a moment where they say: “I know this is going to work.”
Spoiler alert: You don’t. And the moment you convince yourself otherwise, you start increasing position size based on emotion, not logic. That’s where accounts go to die.
Even the greats keep it tight. Paul Tudor Jones, the legend himself, once said: “Don't focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.” Translation: size down, cowboy.
🔔 Position Size ≠ Trade Size
A common mistake: confusing position size with trade size.
Trade size is how big your order is. Position size is how much of your total capital is being risked. You could be trading 10 lots — but if your stop loss is tight, your position size might still be conservative.
So yes, trade big. But only if your risk is small. You’ll do better at this once you figure out how asymmetric risk reward works.
🌦️ Losses Happen. Don’t Let Them Compound
Let’s say you lose 5% on a trade. No big deal, right? Until you try to “make it back” by doubling down on the next one. And then again. And suddenly, you’re caught in a death spiral of revenge trading .
This is not theoretical. It’s Tuesday morning for many traders.
Proper position sizing cushions the blow. It turns what would be a catastrophe into a lesson — maybe even a mildly annoying Tuesday.
🌳 It’s Not Just About Risk — It’s About Freedom
Smart sizing gives you flexibility (and a good night’s sleep).
Want to hold through some noise? You can. Want to scale in? You’re allowed. Want to sleep at night without hugging your laptop? Welcome to emotional freedom.
Jesse Livermore, arguably the most successful trader of all time, said it best: “If you can’t sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level.”
⛳ What the Pros Actually Do
Here’s a dirty little secret: pros rarely go all-in without handling the risk part first (that is, calibrating the position size).
If they’re not allocating small portions of capital across uncorrelated trades, they’ll go big on a trade that has an insanely-well controlled risk level. That way, if the trade turns against them, they’ll only lose what they can afford to lose and stay in the game.
Another great one, Stanley Druckenmiller, who operated one of the best-returning hedge funds (now a family office) said: “I believe the best way to manage risk is to be bullish when you have a compelling risk/reward.”
🏖️ The Summer of FOMO
Let’s address the seasonal vibes.
Summer’s here. Volume’s thin. Liquidity’s weird. Breakouts don’t follow through. Every false move looks like the real deal until it isn’t. And every poolside Instagram story from your trader friend makes you want to hit that buy button harder.
This is where position sizing saves you from yourself. Small trades, wide stops, chill mindset. Or big trades, tight stops, a bit of excitement in your day.
No matter what you choose, make sure to get your dose of daily news every morning, keep your eye on the economic calendar , and stay sharp on any upcoming earnings reports (GameStop NYSE:GME is right around the corner, delivering Tuesday).
☝️ Final Thoughts: The Indicator You Control
In a world of lagging indicators, misleading news headlines, and “experts” selling you dreams, position sizing is one of the few things you have total control over.
And that makes it powerful.
So next time you feel the rush — the urge to go big — take a breath. Remember the math. Remember the odds. And remember: the fastest way to blow up isn’t a bad trade — it’s a good trade sized wrong.
Off to you: How are you handling your trading positions? Are you the type to go all-in and then think about the downside? Or you’re the one to think about the risk first and then the reward? Let us know in the comments!
Elliott Wave Perspective: S&P 500 (SPX) Set to Finish Wave 3Since reaching its low on April 7, 2025, the S&P 500 (SPX) has embarked on an impulsive rally. From that bottom, the index progressed through distinct waves, as defined by Elliott Wave theory. Wave 1 concluded at 5246.57, followed by a corrective pullback in wave 2, which found support at 4910.42. Currently, wave 3 is underway, unfolding as a strong impulse with subdivisions in a lesser degree.
From the wave 2 low, the rally continued with wave ((i)) peaking at 5481.34. A brief retracement in wave ((ii)) then followed which ended at 5101.63. The index then surged higher in wave ((iii)), reaching 5968.61. A subsequent pullback in wave ((iv)) found support at 5767.41, setting the stage for further gains. The index should push to a few more highs to complete wave ((v)) of 3. This will mark the culmination of this upward phase.
Looking ahead, once wave 3 concludes, a corrective wave 4 should follow, retracing part of the rally from the April 7, 2025 low. This correction could unfold in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern before the index resumes its upward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 5765.74 holds, the S&P 500 is poised to achieve additional highs to finalize wave ((v)) of 3. However, if this critical support at 5765.74 is breached, it would signal the end of wave 3, prompting a larger wave 4 pullback, potentially in a 3, 7, or 11-swing structure.
Lack of momentum on Macd indicator on SPX Price action making new HIGH But MACD lines show slow momentum . Last 3 times this Happened and we saw a quick retest on 50 EMA .
S&P 500 update from last week📉 Lesson Learned – The Way of a Trader 📈
Well… this time I jumped the gun. Thought the market would break lower from a compression point, but I was wrong. Price pushed higher, broke the ascending channel upwards — and I paid the price 💸
Not much volume behind the move, but still... up is up.
I acted on a gut feeling, and that didn’t work out.
The mistake?
⛔ Tried to predict the top
⛔ Didn't wait for a confirmed break with volume
Now it’s time to:
✅ Review
✅ Re-evaluate
✅ Learn
✅ Come back stronger
We’re not always going to be right — and that’s part of the game.
Discipline beats ego.
Welcome to the life of a trader.
Let’s keep improving 🔁
Update SPX is still hovering at 90% from the top, Gold looks better now and probably goes higher, OIl the same, BTC should find resistance at 109k
SPX 500 to 17,000 in 7 years.This chart represents the S&P 500, showcasing its performance over time, including quarterly data.
It captures everything.
Every recession.
Every war.
Every president.
Every variation of the monetary base as superpowers rise and fall.
Whenever I hear a bear in the stock market declare that THE TOP has been reached, and we are about to CRASH -50% to -90%
I find myself drawn to these comprehensive long term charts.
If the bulls are genuinely in control and we have merely undergone an intermediate-term correction, then the long-term bull market that commenced at the 2009 low remains robust, with many more years ahead.
The chart also illustrates that the three significant bull market phases typically last around 18-20 years following a major breakout.
And they yield a comparable number of X's.
It's all quite fascinating, if you ask me.
See you in the future!
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025
Chart Context:
Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools:
1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom)
2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions**
* Key Levels and Zones:
* **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100
* **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600
* **Resistance & TP Zones:**
* TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%)
* TP2: **6,840** (-27%)
* TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence)
Technical Observations:
* SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory.
* The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits.
* The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally.
* The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels.
Fundamental Context:
* US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky.
* The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations.
* Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**.
* However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks).
Narrative Bias & Scenarios:
**Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)**
* If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to:
* 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone
* 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone
* These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond.
* **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins.
**Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)**
* If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft:
* SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128)
* Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840)
* Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)**
* **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation.
Indicators Used:
* 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions)
* Trendlines (macro and local)
* Confluence mapping
Philosophical/Narrative Layer:
This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing?
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish with caution
* Strategy:
* Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries
* Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds
* Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits
Related Reference Charts:
* BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias:
* TOTAL:Bullish Bias
*TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias:
* US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
usa 500 analyse*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
up or down...Hello friends🙌
🔊As you can see, the US500 index has been identified with several resistance encounters and the good support that the price has been able to break the resistance and turn it into support. Now, according to today's news, it seems that the price is targeting higher targets that we have identified for you.
In case of correction, it has strong support ahead of it, which we have identified with a white line, but don't forget that buyers have entered...📈
🔥Join us for more signals🔥
Trade safely with us.
Smart Money Levels Spotted on SPX500USD – Massive Sell Zone Major Supply Zone (Resistance): 🔵 6,000 – 6,050
Price is currently sitting right inside a well-defined supply zone, where smart money previously sold off heavily back in December.
Intermediate Support: 🔵 5,436
A clear structural level where price previously broke down from and retested in April.
Major Demand Zone (Support): 🟠 4,900 – 5,000
Price reacted aggressively from this zone during the massive April sell-off, suggesting strong institutional interest.
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🧭 Current Price Action:
SPX500USD is currently trading at 6,004, right at the supply zone marked by the blue shaded area. Price has aggressively rallied from the 4,900 demand zone in April and is now testing this critical resistance level for the first time since the major drop.
📌 Notice the tight consolidation and rejection wicks from this area in the past. This could signal a potential reversal or a breakout trap!
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⚠️ Bearish Signals to Consider:
🔻 Risk of Rejection: With price inside a supply zone and momentum slowing, there’s a high probability of a rejection.
🔻 Double Top Structure: Previous highs around 6,050 could form a double top, making this a textbook reversal opportunity.
🔻 Downside Targets:
📍 First target: 5,436 (previous support & breakout level)
📍 Second target: 4,900–4,950 (major demand zone & value area)
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🧠 Smart Money Perspective:
This setup aligns perfectly with institutional trading logic:
Sell high in supply zones
Buy low in demand zones
Volume Profile and LuxAlgo’s visible range confirm these key levels where institutions are most likely to act.
---
🧨 Trading Plan:
🚫 No buying in the supply zone
📉 Short entries if rejection confirms (look for bearish engulfing / lower high on lower timeframes)
🎯 Target 1: 5,436
🎯 Target 2: 4,900–4,950
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above 6,050 (fake breakout zone)
---
📊 Bonus Tip:
Watch how price behaves around FOMC and CPI news – liquidity grabs often happen right before key macro data, especially near supply zones. Be patient!
---
💬 Let’s Discuss:
Do you see a breakout or a rejection from here?
Comment below if you're bullish or bearish on SPX500USD! 👇
Don't forget to like & follow if you find this breakdown helpful 💡
#SP500 #SPX500USD #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #TradingSetup #SwingTrade #BearishReversal
US 500 Index – All Time Highs Back in SightFresh optimism regarding trade negotiations between the US and China, coupled with confirmation on Friday that the US labour market is cooling down slowly and not indicating an imminent US recession, has seen the US 500 index open this morning at 4 month highs, bumping up against the psychological 6000 again, with its all time peak of 6144 (February 19th) back in sight.
Looking forward, this could be a pivotal week for the US 500, with a variety of risk events for traders to consider, all of which may have the potential to impact the direction of risk sentiment into the Friday close.
First up, later today, traders will be eagerly awaiting updates from the second round of trade talks between US and Chinese trade teams, who are tasked with defusing tensions regarding the supply of rare earth minerals and advanced technology.
Then, on Wednesday (CPI 1330 BST) and Thursday (PPI 1330 BST) the next round of US inflation updates for May are released. These could be relevant to traders who have become more sensitive to potential price rises due to the impact of President Trump's trade tariffs. Any surprise deviations from expectations in either of these releases could see an increase in US 500 index volatility.
Putting this all together with any fresh reports outlining progress on trade deals between the US and Japan or the EU, and it could be a volatile week in store. With this in mind, it can be helpful to consider the technical indicators and trends.
Technical Update: Focus on the Bollinger Mid Average
While some may have argued for a slowing in upside momentum of the recent US 500 index advance, price weakness has continued to be limited in both time and extent.
Importantly, as the chart above shows, when short term setbacks in price have recently materialised, it has been the rising Bollinger mid-average that has marked a support focus.
This maintains the potential of a more constructive picture and positive price trend, where buyers have been happy to pay a higher price each time that weakness is seen, and have been able to push the index above previous peaks in price, to new recovery highs.
Of course, there is no guarantee this pattern of higher highs and higher lows in price will extend further, but traders may well be focusing on this type of pattern as having the potential to lead to a more sustained phase of price strength.
What are the potential support and resistance levels that traders may be watching this week for clues to the direction of the next possible price move?
Potential Resistance Levels:
Further evidence that a positive trend in price could still be in place came on Friday, as a new recovery price high at 6017 was posted.
Traders may now be watching how a previous price high at 6049, which was posted on February 24th is defended, as closing breaks may see further attempts to push to higher levels. Such moves could then lead to further price strength towards 6144, the February 19th all-time high.
Potential Support Levels:
Having held and turned price activity higher over previous tests, it may well still be the rising Bollinger mid-average, which currently stands at 5916 that represents a possible support focus this week.
Closes below this level while not confirmation of a more extended phase of price weakness, may see a deeper decline to test 5842, the May 30th session low, even on to the 5742 level, which is equal to the low posted on May 23rd.
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The Second Blow-Offanyone casually looking at long-term charts can see in recent history on the monthly scale one of the most violent blow-off tops started In 1995-2000, running those 5 years up 240%. interestingly, my target and the number of years it takes to reach since the post-covid lows is almost the same
SPX500 – Volatile Week Ahead as Trade Talks and CPI LoomSPX500 | Overview
Fundamental Insight:
S&P 500 futures edged lower early Monday as traders brace for a high-impact week.
Key events include:
- US-China trade talks in London (Monday)
- U.S. inflation data (CPI) expected midweek (Wednesday)
Markets are cautious, awaiting clarity from both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators, which could trigger strong directional moves.
Technical Outlook:
The price appears to be entering a correction phase, with the potential to drop toward 5966.
A confirmed break below 5966 may extend the bearish trend toward 5938 and 5902.
However, a break above 6030 would invalidate the bearish scenario and could trigger a bullish continuation toward 6098 and potentially a new all-time high (ATH).
Pivot Line: 6010
Support Levels: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance Levels: 6030, 6098
