we gonna hold this channel ?Depends on the wider geo-economic factors. Trumps run-up to the presidency. Fingers crossed for a smooth ride.
SPX trade ideas
$SPX Who Did That?One thing is for sure, the market programmed their algo's to draw the Republican Elephant all over the SP:SPX charts and stampede away with retailer profits.
Come Monday we will rally off this line of gap support and head up to sweep liquidity at previous highs. Once we grab the liquidity we will really find out who is in charge.
Elephants, or Donkey's?
The market will top in November 2028. Sp500 will reach near 9000Looking at the parabolic move of Sp500 and her parallel rising channel, EW, Fibonnaci and other indicators, my guess is that we are going to see three more years of bull run with a top almost at 9000 pips.
We are probably in Wave 3 and a 10% sell off is going to be seen in 2025. After that two more years in a massive blow off top.
Potential channelThinking of possible scenarios. You can ignore the arrows, just pay attention to the orange channel. It is not confirmed as long as there is only one bottom hit, but its bottom may serve as a support at some point. I'm not calling for a crash, but 10% correction in the near future seems probable to me.
How I Identify Key Levels?(daily,weekly,intraday)How I Spot strong Support and Resistance zones on difference timeframe?(daily,weekly,intraday)
Larger Timeframe for SIGNAL , Smaller Timeframe for ENTRY
Example I used in video are :
1min vs 5min
3min vs 15min
5min vs 15min
Daily vs Week
MY SPX500USD LONG IDEA 04/11/2024Direction: Long
SL: 5,619.1
Checklist:
- MA 20 going Upward
- Break of Trendline
- Fib level
- Bounce from a Support/Resistance
- Penetrate a Support/Resistance
- Edgefinder Score
- Correlation Confluence
- Trading Central Preference
Technical:
1. MA 20 Yellow is above MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red).
2. No strong trendline reading but if it breaks my bullish purple line then price will go up.
3. Price bounced off from a Resistance zone.
4. FIB level 0.38 @ 5701.3 .
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling Rise on Time frames 15m,1h,4h and daily at the moment.
6. Q4 seasonality is bullish.
Fundamental and economic:
1. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of 2 "Neutral Bullish".
2. We have US elections coming up and regardless of which president wins it’s going to be bullish for USD and stocks.
3. US NFP came out horrible 12k but market wants a revision and is in a speculative state.
5. USD is on the rise after a recovery.
6. VIX spiked a little and is calming down.
SPX parallel channelParallel channel for SPX for 6 month period. SPX touches upper trendline, this means it could go down, how much is a 1 million dollar question . Is this enough long description?
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets - I took 5890/5880 bull putsOK, so we opened right at the bottom of the implied move here 5910. I did just sell 5890/5880 bull put spreads on the day. That gives us a little bit more room if we do fall and then we have that 30 minute two removing average momentum underneath us which I think will give us the pushback up to close above 5890.
Bulls and Bears zone for 11-15-2024S&P 500 has been negative for last four sessions. Could we see a potential gap fill trade in near future.
Level to watch: 5946 --- 5944
Report to watch:
U S Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
S&P 500 Potentially BullishFOREXCOM:SPX500 has been in a bullish direction. We have seen it make new highs and right now it is coming for a retest on the previously broken high. I will wait for a retest and see some price action at the 5,875.2 area before going long.
Until then, fingers crossed.
Past results does not guarantee future results, please do your due diligence
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maybe Maybe the price will be checked 5700. If the graph gets double top then price will be break the neckline. It will be checked more under 5700
US500, bearish analysisBearish count for US500.
Based on the premise that failure to tag the median (red) line means return of price to October 2022 low.
Key support is 5696.3 and below that 5088.9.
Break of 5 August 2024 low on impulsive price action would likely validate this count and eventual bottom 2765.6-3490.2.
SPX500the Standard & Poor's 500
The SPX 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that was created to serve as a key indicator of the performance of the U.S. equity market
Falling Wedge on SPX Falling Wedge on SP:SPX spx could see a test of the 5930 Level, Fill the Gap and back up from there, if not expect a flush down to 5900 and retest 5880. We do not want to lose the 5900 level or bears will be feeling good and think they can fill the gap Below around 5860 That gap is very large and runs down to 5780 roughly.
The S&P 500 is a...The S&P 500 is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities.
UPDATE ON S&P500 ANALYSISS&P500 4H - Who managed to catch the Case Study video I put up at the start of the week? As you can see price has played out perfectly, giving us the opportunity to buy into this market.
I gave two alternatives, either to go short on the basis we break the last protected low or to go long if we trade into the area of Demand and reject well from it, as you can see we had good rejection and price has given us the opportunity to buy.
This is a bullish market as we know so its important we are trading with the prevailing trend, taking our time and timing it right to get involved with this market, precision is important when we look to take part in the markets.
This was a precise entry that has played out tenfold, well done to anyone who checked out the case study video and placed a position in this market based on it. I will update you all with any other opportunities that arise.
Part 3 – Dynamic Continuation Trading
In our series on intra-day trading strategies, we’ve explored approaches suited to quick market moves and breakout scenarios. Now, let’s dive into dynamic continuation trading, a method that seeks to trade in-lie with the days dominant trend.
Unlike strategies built around short bursts of momentum, dynamic continuation trading is all about capturing the rhythm of an established trend by entering on controlled pullbacks and aiming to stay in as the trend develops. The method brings a mix of patience, technical indicators, and timing into play, making it ideal for those looking to ride intra-day trends longer than they might with other strategies.
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait
Dynamic continuation trading rewards requires plenty of patience. It’s a method where your patience can make a difference between capturing a trending move with attractive levels of risk/reward or getting caught in a reversal.
This style of trading requires you to have enough patience identify an established trend. Then, there’s waiting for a pullback, ideally to a dynamic support area, which provides an entry point with favourable risk-to-reward potential.
And the patience doesn’t end there. As the trade moves in your favour, this approach also calls for a patient, steady hand in trade management. It’s not about taking quick profits but rather about letting the trade develop. That’s where using a trailing stop helps keep you aligned with the trend, locking in profits as the price moves while staying in the trade until the momentum naturally slows down.
Dynamic Trend Continuation on the 5-Minute Chart
In dynamic continuation trading, the 5-minute chart is your stage. Here’s a breakdown of how the 9 EMA, 21 EMA, and RSI can guide entries, stops, and exits.
1. Establish the Trend with the 9 EMA and 21 EMA
For an uptrend, look for the 9 EMA to be positioned above the 21 EMA. Additionally, ensure there’s a visible intra-day uptrend in place, characterised by higher swing highs and higher swing lows. This setup confirms that the market is favouring bullish momentum, and the trend is primed for continuation.
2. Wait for the Pullback
Once you see an established trend, wait for a pullback to the zone between the 9 EMA and 21 EMA. This EMA zone serves as dynamic support, giving you a lower-risk entry point aligned with the trend’s direction. At this point, check the RSI for additional confirmation.
3. Use RSI as an Entry Signal
During the pullback, the RSI should ideally dip towards the 50 level, which indicates that momentum has temporarily slowed without turning bearish. Once the RSI begins to move back above 50, this signals a resumption of momentum in the direction of the trend. Enter your trade when the RSI crosses back above 50, signalling that the pullback is ending and the trend is ready to continue.
Example: S&P 500
In this example, the S&P 500 begins to establish an uptrend with the 9 EMA above the 21 EMA, and prices form a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The price then consolidates and pulls back toward the moving averages, with the RSI also pulling back toward the 50 area. This signals that the uptrend is likely to continue, and we enter the trade.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Trade Management & Stop Placement
The swing high or low that forms following the pullback serves as ideal area for initial stop placement. Stops should be placed just above or below these inflection points to minimize risk if the trend reverses unexpectedly.
In terms of managing the trade, the goal is to let the trend naturally unfold rather than micromanaging every move. A more passive approach allows for potential gains as the trend continues, with the 21 EMA acting as a dynamic guide for trailing stops. This moving average offers a reasonable “buffer zone” for staying in the trade while avoiding minor retracements that are common within trends.
As price moves in your favour, adjust your stop to follow the 21 EMA. By doing so, you’re locking in profits as the trend progresses while allowing room for the price to ebb and flow around the moving average. This approach aligns with the trend’s rhythm, helping you capture the trend’s full potential without being forced out by temporary pullbacks.
Bringing It All Together: How Parts 1, 2, and 3 Complement Each Other
With this series, we’ve covered strategies for different market conditions, equipping you with a diverse toolkit for intra-day trading.
Part 1 focused on quick-reaction trades in tight ranges, ideal for capturing small moves in low-volatility environments. Part 2 explored breakout momentum, which helps you engage with rapid moves following consolidation. Now, with Part 3, dynamic continuation trading provides a strategy for trending markets, helping you align with sustained price movement.
By combining these three approaches, you’re prepared to trade various market states, from range-bound to breakout to trending. This versatility not only enhances your ability to respond to changing conditions but also positions you as a more adaptable trader, ready to take advantage of the unique opportunities each market environment presents.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
charts breakdownMarket Overview: The has been trading within a over the past . Currently, we’re seeing significant activity around the level at , which has been tested multiple times. Volume analysis indicates activity, suggesting .
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance Level: – This has acted as a cap for recent upward moves.
Support Level: – A key area where buyers have historically stepped in, providing support.
Trendline Support/Resistance: .
Moving Averages: – Currently, the price is trading these averages, indicating momentum.
Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at , suggesting conditions. This could imply that the market may soon .
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Volume Profile: Volume is near the level, indicating .
Potential Trade Setups:
Breakout Trade (if price breaches resistance): Consider entering a long position if the price closes above . A stop-loss could be set below , targeting .
Reversal Trade (if price approaches support): A potential long position near , with a tight stop-loss just below, targeting a return to .
Mean Reversion Strategy: With RSI nearing overbought/oversold levels, there’s potential for a pullback towards the mean, particularly if price encounters a strong resistance/support area.
Risk Management:
Use a stop-loss on each trade.
Given recent volatility, consider a wider stop-loss to avoid whipsaw action but still within reasonable risk parameters.
Adjust position sizes based on volatility and adherence to trading rules.
Conclusion: The shows momentum with key support and resistance levels identified. Traders may find potential opportunities based on setups. Monitoring volume and price action closely at these levels will be crucial to confirming any trade entries.
Stocks, BTC & Gold .. my view! Price action after Donald Trumps win shows us the following:
1. Market (Stocks) are in a risk ON mode
2. BTC is following stocks and is also in a risk ON mode
3. Gold is going back to its historical safe haven status or risk OFF mode
So IMHO market is pulling out money from Gold and investing in Stocks and Crypto.
IF my observation and logic is correct then should there be a retracement in Stocks then you will see a correction in Crypto and rebound in Gold
In the picture you can observe a comparison between S&P and BTC. And you know gold has been going in the other direction.
What if.....I was just trolling but I kinda like it.
Its making me type stuff for me to post this idea. Lets see how many words it needs
SPX500 TREND LINES, PIVOT and APEX POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions. Expected Movement for the rest of the year will be in between the two apex points 5410 and 5747. Any Voilation of these points will determine the further direction of the SPX price movement.
SPX500 TREND LINES AND PIVOT POINT VIEWThe SPX500 if manage to close above the last high of 5670 on Daily TF then expect the price to hit the TL.R at 5764 from where the prices can fall back a bit and then move for the next target to TL.B2 at 5810 and if it closes above that point then you can expect the price to move to take over the PIVOT R3 at 61110, but if it is rejected then expect the price to fall towards PIVOT R2. Trend Line green and TL.R form a widening channel. If the price fall back the TL.B1 and Closes Below Pivot R2, then Expect the price bounce from the Trend line green. The main scenario of the price action shows that if the price is not rejected from the previous high of 5670, then price will surely lead to take over the TL.R and TL.B2. On Contrary if price rejected sharply from the TL.B2 and closes below PIVOT R2, then price may continue to fall towards PIVOT R1. Please leave your comments and your suggestions.
