Market and Gold previewSome ideas. Gold looks like the better R/R here. If SP drops under 5840 and holds, it's going a lower.
SPX trade ideas
S&P 500 (SPX500USD) – Liquidity Sweep or Continuation? | Probabi🕒 1H Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Volume | ORB Framework
We are currently trading around 5,888, after a recovery from the equilibrium zone near 5,760–5,770, which served as a strong reaction point. Here's how we at WaverVanir International LLC are assessing probability-based outcomes using our DSS and institutional concepts:
🔍 Key Levels & Observations:
🟥 Premium Supply Zone:
5,925–5,945 shows signs of multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), and prior liquidity grabs.
This zone is now a potential trap for late buyers.
Prob. of rejection: ~70% based on historical confluence.
🟦 Discount Demand Zone:
5,742–5,770 is our equilibrium/discount reaccumulation zone with a high-probability reaction area.
Swept liquidity clean on May 24–27 with volume spike confirmation.
Prob. of support: ~75% short-term if price retraces with exhaustion.
📈 Trade Ideas (Probability-Weighted):
Short Setup (Reactive)
Entry: 5,928–5,940 (inside premium)
Stop Loss: Above 5,950 (above weak high)
Target 1: 5,860
Target 2: 5,785–5,765 (equilibrium zone)
Confidence: 65–70%
Long Setup (Reversion Play)
Entry: 5,765–5,745 (bottom of imbalance)
Stop Loss: Below 5,729
Target 1: 5,859
Target 2: 5,910–5,920
Confidence: 70% if sweep occurs with declining vol.
🔄 ORB Confluence:
Opening Range Breakout (0930–0945) shows recent buy-side aggression, but this move is suspect unless volume continues climbing. A fade below 5,859 without impulsive volume confirms seller re-entry.
Liquidity sweep warning from my DSS. Let's see if we see a rug pull in the markets, or we will witness something magical :)
SPY Moving UpWe can look for price to continue up We are starting to see some selling pressure. The RSI on the one hour still has to grow.
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long.
Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation.
Pair: US500
Timeframe: 4H
Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill
Entry: After 4H candle close
Stop Loss: Below demand wick
Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance
Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R
This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience.
– THE 4H TRADER
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
GAP to Fill in RectangleThe S&P 500 (SPX) is poised to fill its recent gap, having re-entered the prior consolidation range and now challenging the 200-day moving average. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near overbought territory, the market may need a brief cooldown before resuming its trend. At the same time, rising bond yields are casting a shadow on equities, as investors weigh the impact of higher borrowing costs on corporate profits. Until yields stabilize, we’re likely to see heightened volatility around key technical levels.
SPX500 H1 | Multi-swing-low support at 38.2% Fib retracementSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,822.41 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,770.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,932.39 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
SPX Short Puts - An Idea to testI dont like paper trading because it doesnt seem real. Just like online poker thats not for real money, its hard to care enough. So I put this trade on this morning, SPX Sold 5735 Put and Bought 5700 Put for $5.95 credit 8 day expiration (May 30). An 8 day trade is of course exposed to overnight and over a long weekend risk but its traded around the support range of the gap fill. I built the spread at the strikes I wanted then moved it out in expiration until it had an amount of credit I felt good about it.
Theres been an upward drift on it so far today so its gone in my favor, I dont recall what the delta was at the time but its 18.51 now so it had to be in the 20's. Its up $115 right now so it could be closed as a winner and I can come back tomorrow for something else, but I'm going to leave it open. The thought here is I like the support level of 5720 if the gap fill occurs, it should have a decent bounce if it even gets there so my 5735 shouldnt get into that much more trouble anyway. The idea here is if it even gets to the range of it, I roll it because regardless of what happens, I dont think its going to stay below 5720 for too long. The other part of the idea is if the market drifts sideways or upward, I can roll it out daily to maintain about the same delta and collect some credit. I dont really want to go longer than 9 or 10 days though so I'd have to look for a different strike when it moves too high.
$SPXSP:SPX staying strong as the One Big Beautiful Bill pushes forward 🇺🇸📊
This bill could be the fuel the market needs:
✅ Economic momentum through tax relief & job creation
🔧 High-tech equipment demand rising
🏗️ U.S. doubling down on skilled labor to rebuild smarter, stronger infrastructure
This isn’t just policy it’s a blueprint for long-term bullish energy in the markets. Eyes on SP:SPX 📈🔥
SPY pull back startAs we can see, it appears that today marked the beginning of a pullback, with the price breaking below the trendline and dropping by 1.20%.
Interestingly, the price has now reached the 10 EMA, which often acts as dynamic support. From here, we need to remain patient — either waiting for a bullish reaction at this level or allowing the price to continue pulling back to a deeper point of interest (POI).
Based on how the market reacts at each POI, we can then begin to take action on the trades from our watchlist.
SPX500 | Macro-Fib Confluence Levels + Risk Roadmap🕰️ Daily Chart | May 21, 2025
🏢 Posted by: Wavervanir_International_LLC
After a sharp retracement and subsequent rally, the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is now facing overhead resistance near the 0.886 Fib retracement (~5,875-5,953) from the previous swing high.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Confluence Resistance: 5,875–5,953 zone (0.886 Fib)
Micro W-Pattern Setup: Pullback expected to 5,640–5,700 before a potential higher low sets up a breakout.
Bull Targets:
6,182 (1.236 Fib ext)
6,512 (1.618 Fib ext, potential exhaustion zone)
🧠 Macro + Volatility Context:
Monetary Policy: Fed remains data-dependent. July rate cut odds are increasing, but the market remains bifurcated between sticky services inflation and weakening real GDP prints.
Bond Market: Yield curve remains inverted. A breakout above 6,182 will likely need bond volatility (MOVE index) to stabilize under 100.
Global Flow Risks: Continued capital inflows into U.S. equities amid geopolitical hedging, but China liquidity injections and BOJ FX defense add noise.
🛡️ Risk Management Notes:
Pullback Zone: 5,640–5,700 = high-conviction buy zone (0.5–0.618 retracement of last impulse)
Invalidation: Daily close below 5,573 or breach of 5,475 = reassess long thesis.
Position Sizing: Favor partial scaling-in with tight trailing stop until breakout confirmation.
📌 Strategy Summary:
We are watching for a tactical pullback into the golden zone followed by a measured continuation toward 6,182+ if macro tailwinds align (i.e., dovish Fed tone + improving liquidity metrics). The setup mirrors late-cycle rallies and should be monitored alongside bond yields and dollar strength.
⚠️ Patience > Chase. Let the W structure play out.
—
🔗 #SPX500 #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #Wavervanir #SMC #RiskManagement #TradingViewAnalysis
S&P 500 1W forecast until mid June 2025It's in reversal now. Uptrend has finished and downtrend is starting. A fall downto 5105 is on the table. It may last until the middle of June 2025.
This view is also supported by my VIX forecast.
Weekly updates of 1D chart are available through social media links in my profile.
05/20/25 Trade Journal, and Where is the Stock Market going tomoEOD accountability report: +293.75
Sleep: 4.5 hours , Overall health: Calm and tired. need to catch up on sleep.
What was my initial plan?
Market structure was bearish so, I started the day shorting, but once market flipped bullish, I switched to BTD mode.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal
— 11:18 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 1:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
— 3:13 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 2x signal (C+ set up)
Next day plan--> Above 5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5900--> 5800 next
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P500 Short: Attempting to break the trendlineAs an update to my previous idea to short S&P500, this is a short video to update the stop and to point out the break of the longer-term trendline.
Pretty bullishUntil the 50MA (monthly) is not broken down and the parabolic move is neither broken down. 7000 pips are coming soon.
Should you listen to JP Morgan CEO, Jamie?Jamie could be right about Quarter 2 where we start to see the effects of the tariff hurting the US markets. Earnings down, that means PE will follow and share price comes down.
But should SELL all your US assets like what some influencers are telling you? I can't decide for you but I am holding to it and ride it through. Why? Simple - I am not smart enough to TIME the market knowing exactly when is the bottom and when is the peak.
That is what some gurus are positioning themselves to be, naturally with some courses involved and a membership into their group chat,etc. It is obvious only the profitable trades are displayed on social media for all to see so that FOMO effects kicks in. WHY didnt I join this club else I would be the one also making the profit?
What I love about WB is his wisdom. He said learnt to take the risk and the returns will come. In that, he means doing the necessary work , research on why in the first place are you buying a particular company and not midway, let it affects your decision to start dumping.
I also think some traders/investors have unrealistic expectations, thinking that every single trade they undertake must yield a profit. They believe in the method they are using so it is hard to accept when SL is hit. I have said umpteen times. Whoever can come up with a system that yields consistent profits, he would not be marketing it but first borrow so much money to bet on it himself and make a millionaire or multimillionaire out of it. That is the logic instead of touting it online and kept promoting how good it is.
So for me, I am hanging on tight to my good quality companies and not selling anything at this juncture but keeping an open mind to what's to come in the near future.
As usual, please DYODD
SPX Dead Cat Bounce now its time to go down.There was an extreme case of dead cat bounce and now its time for the index to go back down
5/19/2025 sp500It was a great purchase, I bought it based on the balanced fvg on the larger graphic times and the liquidity that needed to be captured on the buying side, it would be better if I posted on lower timeframes to have a better idea of the liquidity regions but it is not possible to post below 15m, hope you guys enjoy
$SPX // May 19 2026 // Analysis & Targets for Day TradersSP:SPX // May 19 2026 // Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
US 500 Index – Upside Rally Facing A Ratings ChallengeThe US 500 index recorded a 2-month high of 5958 on Friday before settling back to close the week at 5922, an incredible 24% rally from the index's tariff induced lows at 4799 seen on April 7th. Impressive indeed.
However, late on Friday evening the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded US government debt from its top credit rating of Aa1 to Aaa, citing a ballooning budget deficit and no clear plan to narrow this in the future.
This Moody’s decision generated some weekend headlines in the financial press around the sustainability of President Trump’s plans for unfunded tax cuts as the US economy slows due to his recent trade tariff announcements. This even led to a comment on the downgrade from the much-respected US Treasury Scott Bessant, who played down concerns over the US government debt and attempted to reassure investors the Trump administration is determined to bring down spending and grow the economy.
Early Monday Trading:
Given the extent of the recent upside rally to just short of the physiological 6000 level, perhaps unsurprisingly, early Monday trading possibly suggests traders are reacting with caution to this news, with the US 500 trading down 0.6% at 5888, at time of writing. However, there is a long trading week ahead and it will be important to see how markets respond once US traders are back at their desks.
Technical Update: Looking For Potential Support and Resistance Levels This Week
As seen on the chart below, the move in the US 500 index from the April 7th low at 4799 into last Friday’s latest recovery high at 5958 completed a rally of 24%, as recent concerns over global trade eased.
However, Friday’s downgrade of US debt may prompt some traders to question the sustainability of the current advance, even concluding it is something that could lead to the potential for fresh price weakness.
With that in mind, let’s look at possible technical levels in the US 500 that can be monitored this week to gauge the next potential directional price risks
Potential Support Levels:
The first possible support level to focus on if a more extended phase of price weakness is seen, may be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May price strength which stands at 5813.
While by no means a guarantee of continued declines, if closing breaks of 5813 are seen, a more extended price correction may then be on the cards, which could suggest tests of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which stands at 5722, or even 5575, equal to the May 7th session low, are possible.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Previous price highs can be viewed by traders as possible resistance levels, as having previously marked a point where selling pressure has been found, it may be the case again.
As such, with the latest price strength trading close to 5988/6007, which is an area where sellers were previously found between February 26th 2025 and March 3rd 2025, this may now be a resistance focus for some.
However, closing breaks of this 5988/6007 price range may lead to attempts at further strength, with the next resistance perhaps then marked by 6144, which is the February 19th 2025 all-time high.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
S&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit RatingS&P 500 Falls Following Downgrade of US Credit Rating
On Friday, 16 May, after markets had closed, Moody’s Ratings announced a downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating of the United States from the highest level of Aaa to Aa1. The key reasons cited by Moody’s were the rising national debt and interest payments, as well as expectations of a further increase in the budget deficit. Notably:
→ The downgrade was hardly a surprise. A similar move was made by Standard & Poor’s back in 2011, while Fitch Ratings followed suit in August 2023.
→ The official response may be seen as reassuring for market participants. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down concerns about the downgrade in an interview with NBC News, calling credit ratings “lagging indicators” and placing the blame on the previous administration.
→ Despite the downgrade, Moody’s acknowledged the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and stated that the United States “retains exceptional credit strengths, such as the size, resilience, and dynamism of its economy.”
Stock Market Reaction
The announcement triggered a negative market reaction, reflected in falling prices during Monday morning’s opening session. E-mini S&P 500 futures (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) retreated, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, pulling back from the highs reached by Friday’s close.
Last week, we pointed out signs of slowing momentum in the S&P 500 rally. Could the decline continue further?
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
By drawing lines A, B, and C through the May rally peaks, we can observe a gradual flattening of the slope — suggesting that the bulls are losing momentum and confidence.
The price is currently trading between local lines C and C1, but it is reasonable to assume that the opening of the US session may bring renewed bearish pressure — potentially pushing the price lower, towards the bottom boundary of the broader upward channel (marked in blue).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 H4 | Falling toward a pullback supportSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
