SPX: in an optimistic moodIt was a good week for the S&P 500, which managed to gain each day during the previous week, surging by around 5% on a weekly basis. Positive market sentiment was supported by easing of trade tariffs tensions between the US and China. It should be also noted that the US Administration signed significant partnerships with countries in the Middle East, mostly in the field of technology and further support to AI development. These agreements will ensure that US companies, mostly in the AI and tech industry, will secure trillions of US Dollars in investments within the next couple of years. In this sense, the US tech companies gained during the week, with Nvidia as a leader in the chip industry, surging around 16% on a weekly basis. META was traded higher by some 8%, Apple surged by 6%, while Microsoft gained modest 3% on a weekly basis.
Analysts are noting that the markets are currently re-thinking the stagflation risks, which was previously priced during the peak of US-China trade tariffs tensions. This was the major catalyst for the positive sentiment during the previous week, and easily might support its continued optimism also in the weeks ahead. Still, it should be considered that the US equity market continues to be vulnerable to fundamentals, especially toward the news related to trade tariffs. Such fundamentals might bring some short term volatility, however, general positive sentiment is currently holding.
SPX trade ideas
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
Has this strategy works for you ?I was quite surprised when one of my followers shared that buying into SPX is boring and has nothing much worthy of bragging rights in social media. Wait, you mean you are buying or selling just because you want to brag? For ego sake ? Value at ??????
Ok, so I am old school and are unlikely to notice stocks like POPMART or Nvidia for that matter. Some of my friends are just busy trading on small time frame of 1-5 mins daily on these stocks, it requires skills, eye power and definitely not for me.
If you had invested in SPX when I mentioned it here , here or here
When you are clear why you are buying and have the conviction that it will continue to pay you handsomely in the long term, then you have lesser headache of searching for quality companies like UNH which plunge so much lately ! Really, you are OK with it after the death of one CEO and then the next is resigning and then getting sued for fraud. Market first react to it be it truth or rumours and then self correct later, that is the brutal and hard to accept for many.
Consider the SPX index like a basket of different fruits that yield you good benefits in the long term. The probability of ALL these stocks or majority falling 10% within a day is RARE except 9th April (thanks to President Trump) but if you ignore that and took that opportunity to DCA, you are well rewarded as data shown.
So now, the market is again haunting you that another selldown is coming - downgrade of US AA1 rating by Moody .
Good, if it comes down another 5-10% , then it is another great opportunity to buy more at cheaper price. The reasons many are afraid to go LONG is because they let the media scared the hell out of them. Bro, that is how media make their money - viewership.
News must be sensational, ya ? The bloodier, creating more fear, uncertainty , the better and the more people hooked on reading, forwarding and commenting on it.
So, perhaps the market will react to this negative news and come down and close the gap around 5666 price level. That would be nice to buy more. Be patient and wait for the green dotted bullish trend line be broken down first.
Of course, maybe the Gen Z finds this strategy too slow, giving peanut returns year on year and prefer to long crypto where overnight millionaires are made and they were sold that dream, fast and furious.
Do what suits you but as always, know what you are doing and protect yourself - NEVER EVER borrow to invest/trade, NEVER EVER go on MARGIN no matter how smart/confident you are on the trade, always use a Stop LOSS.
SPX headed for a correctionMoody's has downgraded US Debt. This news is a catalyst for a overdue correction (Or reversal?)
I published this script some days back. It can predict price inflection points very well
Based on the past behaviour, I can say we are heading for a correction technically and the fill the gap of last week
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Moody’s U.S. Downgrade – Why Markets May Stay ResilientMoody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 is notable but unlikely to trigger a major market sell-off. Here’s why:
Why a Severe Drop Is Unlikely:
Already Priced In: Follows similar actions by S&P (2011) and Fitch (2023); markets may have already adjusted.
Minimal Regulatory Impact: Aa1 is often treated similarly to Aaa in capital and collateral rules.
Stable Outlook: Signals no immediate risk of further downgrades, offering reassurance.
U.S. Strengths Intact: Economic size, resilience, and dollar reserve status continue to underpin investor confidence.
Possible Reactions:
Treasury Yields: May rise slightly on risk re-pricing.
Equities: Modest pullback possible, but no sharp correction expected.
Sentiment: Could revive fiscal debate, but not a game-changer for positioning.
Conclusion: The downgrade highlights longer-term fiscal concerns but is unlikely to cause immediate market turmoil.
#Moody’s #USDebt #CreditDowngrade #MarketOutlook #TreasuryYields #SPX #RiskSentiment
Correction and up for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD slowly went up some more. The pullbacks are overlapping so it looks like price is forming a leading diagonal (wave 1).
I'm still expecting a downmove because of the price action. Price came into the 4H FVG and is showing a bearish doji. So next week we could see a (corrective) move down.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for price to develop some more before you take any trades.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
SPX: time to digest the uptrend?The S&P closed the week at 5,958, continuing its climb along a steep uptrend that’s been in place since mid-April. While momentum remains bullish, we’re now entering a zone where digestion or short-term pullbacks would not be surprising. And not because of weakness, but after every run is a period of digestion.
In this video I first go through how I clear out the noise to focus on the outlook for the next few weeks, re-chart my levels and trendlines, and walk through potential scenarios for the coming week.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
S&P 100Trade Plan BUY S&P 100 ENTRY-1
Entry-1 5720
SL 5578
RISK 142
REWARD 1717
Target as per Entry 7437
RR 12.1
Last High 6147
Last Low 4843
Trend: All timeframes are in a clear UP trend, suggesting bullish sentiment across the board.
Demand Strength: As we move from macro to micro, the demand zones are increasing:
Macro demand: 4750 (lower)
Mid-term demand: 5398 (higher)
Micro demand: 5668 (highest)
Implication:
The upward trend across all timeframes and rising average demand zones suggest strong bullish momentum.
If price pulls back, the 4750–4807 zone could act as strong macro support.
For short-term entries or intraday trades, 5668 is the key support level to watch.
🔹 Macro View (Long-Term Demand Zones)
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
Yearly UP 4818 4682 4750
Half-Yearly UP 4818 4682 4750
Quarterly UP 4818 4682 4750
Macro Avg UP 4818 4682 4750
🔹 Mid-Term View
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
Monthly UP 4931 4682 4807
Weekly UP 5720 5578 5649
Daily UP 5787 5692 5740
Mid-Term Avg UP 5479 5317 5398
🔹 Micro View (Short-Term)
Time Frame Trend Proximal Distal Avg
240 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
180 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
60 Min UP 5691 5644 5668
Micro Avg UP 5691 5644 5668
MASTER PATTERN TEACHING using TradingView charts. Master pattern - Tonight we are looking at the SPX 500 index directional trade. Using Options.
This is a master pattern technical analysis set up for entry, discipline and execution of a trade.
I will use the 3 time frames to identify
1) Higher time frame ( HTF) Direction trade, trend & liquidity, volume confirmation, and the contraction box
2) Lower time frame ( LTF) Market makers and smart money set up contraction and expansion phases
3) Lower time frame ( LTF) Continuation leg of the trend
Once I have identified and selected my option DTE and spread I will execute when the LTF has reached a new low in the intraday.
Hope you learned something new.
Happy Trading.
Tommaso
SPX500 Hits Major Supply Zone – Will the Bears Take Over?The S&P 500 (SPX500) just tapped a significant supply zone between 5945–5952, a key level where previous selling pressure led to strong bearish moves. Price is currently showing signs of exhaustion at the top of this zone on the 4H timeframe, and we may be witnessing a potential reversal setup.
Key Levels:
Supply Zone (Resistance): 5945 – 5952
Mid-Support: 5478
Demand Zone (Strong Support): 4916 – 4920
Possible Scenarios:
1. Rejection from the supply zone could trigger a pullback to 5478, and if that breaks, the next bearish target would be the demand zone at 4916.
2. If the bulls break and close above 5952 with strong momentum, we might see new highs, but volume confirmation is needed.
Watch for:
Bearish candlestick patterns in the supply zone
Reversal confirmation with RSI or MACD divergence
Volume drop on the breakout attempt
Red Arrows Mark: High-probability downside targets in case of reversal.
With key economic events marked on the chart (highlighted on May 22), volatility is expected. A fakeout or whipsaw move could be in play—stay cautious!
Are you bullish or bearish on SPX500? Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like and follow for more institutional-level analysis!
#SPX500 #S&P500 #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #TradingView #Forex #Stocks #PriceAction #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500Analysis
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 16 May 2025
- S&P 500 broke the resistance level 5900.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6100.00
S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance level 5900.00, the former support from January and February.
The breakout of the resistance level 5900.00 should accelerate the active short-term impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6100.00, which reversed the price multiple times from December to March, as can be seen below.
S&P500 Historic reversals like this delivered even +100% gains!The S&P500 (SPX) is making a remarkable bullish reversal and on the monthly (1M) chart is even more evident due to April's candle, which almost closed flat leaving a huge wick under it, a feat we've never seen in recent history.
What we have seen however since the 2008 Housing Crisis, is every time the index hits (or approaches) its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), it reverses to an incredible rally, technically a new Bull Cycle.
This is what happened in April, the index came a breath away from the 1M MA50 and delivered the strongest monthly bullish reversal of our time. On top of that, it hit and rebounded exactly on the former All Time High Resistance, which held and turned into Support. All such Resistance levels since 2008 have held. Also note that the only time the 1M MA50 really broke (closed the month below it), was during the March 2020 COVID flash-crash, which is a non-technical event/ irregularity and still it rebounded on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
The minimum long-term rise that SPX had after such correction was +76.20% and the maximum +104.17%. Assuming the minimum price increase for the current emerging rise, we expect the index to hit 8300 by late 2027.
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