STAY AWAY FROM SPX 16 jan 2025Charts have been already showing that it needs to go down but now even indicators are showing downside.
Don't be a bull right right now. It is showing short trade now but I wont short
SPX500 trade ideas
Earnings Season Cranks Up for Gainless S&P 500. What to Expect?The S&P 500 SPX is now showing nearly zero growth since Election Day, November 5. Markets were euphoric to see Donald Trump win the White House for another four years and pushed the S&P 500 to the rarefied air of 6,000 points and above. But that’s not the case anymore.
A flurry of data has poured cold water on that breakneck rally, including the latest nonfarm payrolls, which showed employers tapped a whopping 256,000 workers in December, far outpacing expectations of 156,000. The news fanned fears that the Federal Reserve might take its time in cutting interest rates — every investor’s biggest concern right now.
It’s up to the earnings season to rejuvenate a falling stock market. To many, the fourth-quarter earnings updates will be the most consequential event as it will also mark President Joe Biden’s departure and the arrival of the main character, Donald Trump.
First through the door, as is tradition, are the heavyweight players on Wall Street. This week traders will get to see the earnings results from big banks including JPMorgan JPM , Wells Fargo WFC and Goldman Sachs GS . In addition, the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock BLK will also post its performance.
The banks’ updates will provide a glimpse into investor appetite for big-shot dealmaking, business sentiment and also how daring and bold consumers were in their spending activity. Things like net interest income — how much the bank earned on interest after paying out deposits — will be a key gauge for the banking system’s health.
Here’s what’s coming from Wall Street’s household names (and some extra).
➡️ Wednesday, January 15, before the bell:
Citi C
Goldman Sachs GS
JPMorgan JPM
Wells Fargo WFC
BlackRock BLK
Bank of New York Mellon BK
➡️ Thursday, January 16, before the open:
Bank of America BAC
Morgan Stanley MS
U.S. Bancorp USB
Other earnings include UnitedHealth UNH .
Once markets digest the updates from the lending giants, the focus will shift to the next big thing — the Magnificent Seven . It’s a high bar once again for America’s most powerful corporate juggernauts.
Investors expect Mag 7 earnings to be up 22% from the same period last year while revenue is eyeballed to have grown 12.3%. The consensus views follow the elite club’s 32.9% earnings jump in the third quarter on revenue increase of 15.4%.
Fun fact: the Mag 7 members accounted for 23.1% of all profits in the S&P 500 for the quarter ending September. For the three months to December, they are expected to consume about a quarter of the earnings pie.
And for 2025, their market cap is projected to devour more than one-third of the S&P 500’s value, which is around $50 trillion. For the tech geeks, here’s the Mag 7 earnings slate:
➡️ Wednesday, January 29, after the closing bell:
Microsoft MSFT
Facebook parent Meta META
Tesla TSLA
➡️ Thursday, January 30, after the closing bell:
Apple AAPL
Amazon AMZN
➡️ Tuesday, February 4, after the closing bell:
Google parent Alphabet GOOGL
➡️ Wednesday, February 19 (tentative), after the closing bell:
Nvidia NVDA
Overall, the foresighted market gurus (i.e. the analysts) expect all companies in the S&P 500 to report a roughly 12% advance in quarterly profits compared to the year-ago quarter. For 2025, the consensus call is a 15% increase in corporate profits from last year.
There are, of course, the permabears among us who spell doom and gloom. They say that Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could hinder corporate growth by raising prices for US companies that rely on overseas products. And if those companies decide to pass these costs to customers, then inflation might rear back up, throwing the markets into another painful cycle of higher interest rates.
What’s your take? Are you optimistic about the corporate earnings season? And are you excited to see more growth in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s spin up the discussion.
Understanding Risk Asymmetry in a Table▮ Introduction
With TradingView's new table creation feature , you can easily create and customize tables to enhance your trading analysis and presentations.
In this article I'll use it to explain Risk Asymmetry .
Trading involves a constant evaluation of risk and reward .
One of the critical concepts that traders need to understand is risk asymmetry .
This concept highlights how losses and gains are not symmetrical.
In other words, the percentage gain required to recover from a loss is greater than the percentage loss itself.
This article explores risk asymmetry and illustrates it with a practical example.
▮ What is Risk Asymmetry?
Risk asymmetry refers to the disproportionate relationship between losses and the gains required to recover from those losses.
For instance, if you lose 10% of your investment, you need to gain more than 10% to get back to your original amount.
This is because the base amount has decreased after the loss.
Understanding risk asymmetry is crucial for traders because it affects their risk management strategies.
Knowing that larger losses require exponentially larger gains to recover can help traders make more informed decisions about their trades and risk exposure.
▮ Illustrating Risk Asymmetry
To illustrate risk asymmetry, let's consider an initial investment of $1000.
The table below shows the required gain to recover from various percentage losses:
Explanation:
- Loss (%): The percentage loss from the initial amount.
- Value Lost ($): The lost monetary value from the initial amount.
- Amount After Loss ($): The remaining amount after the loss.
- Required Gain for Recovery (%): The percentage gain required to recover to the initial amount.
This table highlights the asymmetry in trading losses and gains.
As the loss percentage increases, the required gain to recover the initial amount increases disproportionately.
For example, if you lose 50% of your initial amount ( $500 ), it is not enough for you to gain 50% , because the amount left after the loss is $500 , and a 50% gain on the amount of $500 is $250 , which would result in a total amount of $750 with a remaining loss of $250 !
So, the most important question is not how much can I win , but how much can I lose .
Curiosity:
Why 100% is not applicable (-) in this table?
When you lose 100% of your investment, you have lost all your capital. Therefore, there is no remaining amount to recover from, and it is impossible to gain back to the initial amount from zero. This is why the required gain are marked as not applicable.
▮ Conclusion
Understanding risk asymmetry can help traders in several ways:
1. Risk Management:
traders can set stop-loss levels to limit their losses and avoid the need for large gains to recover.
2. Position Sizing:
by understanding the potential impact of losses, traders can size their positions more conservatively.
3. Psychological Preparedness:
knowing the challenges of recovering from significant losses can help traders maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making.
It is one thing to lose 100% of a dollar on a casino bet; it is quite another to lose 100% of a lifetime's worth of capital.
Therefore, the larger the capital at stake, the smaller the amount of money that should ideally be risked.
How to swing long the SP500?CAPITALCOM:US500 / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
SP:SPX is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pull-back to the previous daily range for a strategic approache.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
Last swing high.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo
S&P 500 Outlook: CPI Data and Earnings to Shape Market DirectionS&P 500 Analysis: Pre-Bell Outlook
Earnings, CPI Expectations Lift Wall Street Futures; Asia Mixed, Europe Gains
Wall Street futures edged moderately higher in pre-market trading on Wednesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from Washington and the kickoff of the fourth-quarter earnings season.
The CPI report, set to be released today, could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Technical Outlook
The S&P 500 is likely to remain under pressure as long as the price trades below 5863. In such a scenario, a decline toward 5829 and 5781 is anticipated, especially if the CPI data comes in at 2.9% or higher.
Conversely, if the CPI data is below 2.8%, it could support a bullish momentum, with the index potentially rising toward 5937.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 5863
Resistance Levels: 5888, 5937, 5969
Support Levels: 5830, 5802, 5781
Trend Outlook
Bearish trend while trading below 5863.
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum BuildsAs we move further into 2025, the S&P 500 continues to show signs of weakness, intensifying the bearish outlook from my last post. The Rising Channel breakdown and Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern remain dominant, with the price now trading firmly below the 50 EMA.
Attempts to reclaim the Rising Channel have failed, confirming that the long-term bullish structure is no longer in play. The neckline of the H&S pattern, previously broken, has become a strong resistance zone, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50 EMA has flipped to resistance, making it even harder for bulls to regain control.
Currently, the 200 EMA is providing critical support. If this level fails, the downside momentum could accelerate significantly, leading to much lower targets. Key levels to watch include 5,687.33, 5,600.45, and the channel projection target of 5,119.26.
Bulls will need to defend the 200 EMA and push the price back above the 50 EMA to have a chance at reversing this trend. Otherwise, the market seems poised for further downside. Let me know how you’re approaching this setup shorting, waiting for a bounce, or something else? Stay sharp and trade carefully! 🚀
SPX500USD DOWNSPX500USD CHoCh was formed and the index broke down the uptrend line and the retest was made and breakdown confirmed .
Good LUck
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500 This is why 2025 will be Bullish.The S&P500 index (SPX) just hit its 1W MA25 (red trend-line) for the first time since the August 05 2024 Low (5 months ago). This is a major long-term Support trend-line, the first one out of a total three.
As you can see on this chart, the index has been trading within a Channel Up on the log scale ever since the bottom of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis. During this pattern, it has gone through phases of strong and extended Bull where the 1W MA25 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) offers the Support Zone and every test is a buy opportunity and when those break, the Bear phase starts, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), with the exception being of course the non-technical, once in 100 years event of the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
It is now the 1W MA25 that comes as the first major Support level and with the 1W RSI forming the same kind of Channel Down divergence as early 2014, we expect further extension of the current Bull Phase into 2025.
In fact, every Bull Cycle has either increased by roughly +100% or +62% and since the current one is way over +62%, it is fair to expect that it will pursue the +100% mark. That is currently exactly at 7000 and could be achieved by the end of 2025 as every previous Cycle Top was priced towards the end its year with a frequency of either 3 or 4 years.
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S&P500 Next Level, 80% probabilityIn the weekly chart, current market shows market breaking down the weekly trend (which touches the 2022 and 2023 lows) so the following resistance level should be around 5,400.
If broken we would move to the next resistance towards 5,000.
S&P 500 on textbook falling wedgeS&P 500 is about to break a falling wedge on the daily.
RSI is almost capped and doesn't have strength in its current bullish movement.
Most likely we are back to the base before breaking it.
S&P500: Every January same rally starting. Target = 6,950.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.738, MACD = -35.090, ADX = 24.753) but just turned marginally bullish on 1W (RSI = 55.182) today. This technically signifies the market's enormous upside potential on the long term. The 2 year pattern is a Channel Up after all and every January since 2023, a new rally starts which exceeds +20% in gains. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, the bullish trend will be dominant. We are aiming for another +21% rise like the previous Jan 2024 rally (TP = 6,950).
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SPX JAN 7 2025| READ DESCRIPTION |Here we need to understand the power of money & risk management.If it goes to 6200 from here then our RR is just 1: 1.08 .
The RR is the heart & soul of a trade. One should be discplined enought to understand this & if you are not getting minimum 1:2 & I have used the word minimum, then there is no point taking that particular trade.
You need to think what if a trade goes against me?
Always be open to both sides understanding the RR
If you are not following RR & rules then this business will eat all your wealth
You mind is actually the most powerful thing in the world.
Market Snapshotwww.elliottwavetrader.net
Another great write-up by Avi Gilburt and team on the current state of things at a Macro level
Not affiliated with them and not pushing any of their services of course..
Do I agree with everything they say? Nope
The below snippet from the article hints at the TRUE reason why things are going to get desperate in this economy over the next decade:
"QE is merely a machination through which more debt is made available in the system, which is an indirect manner to increase the money supply. It is not actual printing of dollar bills, which would directly increase the money supply. Therefore, if more debt is made available, the only way you will get inflation is if there is public demand for that additional supply of debt. Without the matching demand for the additional debt supply, QE becomes a failure."
S&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological LevelS&P 500 Index Rises to Psychological Level
The US stock market experienced an upswing following the release of inflation data yesterday. According to ForexFactory:
→ The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations at 2.9%.
→ The monthly Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below analysts' forecast of 0.3%.
Market participants interpreted this as a positive signal, leading to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) gaining over 1% in the first 30 minutes after the data release.
As reported by Reuters:
→ Concerns about inflation eased, reviving hopes for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, buoyed by a strong start to the earnings season (which we will cover in more detail later);
→ However, the rally may be short-lived, as inflation in the US remains uncomfortably high and could increase further due to aggressive tariff and tax policies under the new Trump administration;
→ Analysts caution that the Federal Reserve's rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows that since early August—when the Japanese stock market crash triggered concerns of a global recession, dragging US equities lower—the price has been in an upward trend, marked by a blue channel. The January mid-month low has provided a more precise point to define the lower boundary of this channel.
From this perspective, traders should note that the current S&P 500 price has reached a resistance zone, which consists of:
→ The median line of the blue channel;
→ The psychological level of 6,000 points;
→ The upper red line, drawn through the local highs of December 2024 and January 2025, suggesting that the decline beginning on 18th December could be viewed as an intermediate correction within the blue ascending channel.
This resistance area may serve as a key test of the bulls' determination to complete the correction and resume the upward trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
S&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month LowS&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month Low
On Friday, the US unemployment data was released, as reported by ForexFactory:
→ The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%;
→ The number of new jobs (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 256,000 over the month, although analysts had forecast an increase of 164,000 (previous value = 212,000).
According to Reuters, the strong labour market data strengthened the market participants' view that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates in 2025.
Based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs for the first time in June and then keep it at that level for the remainder of the year.
Expectations that tight monetary policy will persist longer than usual have led to bearish sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) dropped below the 5,800 mark this morning, its lowest point since early November.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows:
→ A bearish Head and Shoulders (SHS) pattern is visible on the chart;
→ The price has broken below the median of the ascending channel (marked in blue).
The strengthening bearish sentiment may lead to:
→ The price fluctuating within the descending channel, the boundaries of which are already visible (marked in red);
→ The median of this red channel currently acting as support.
It is possible that the intensification of bearish sentiment will result in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declining towards the 5,700 level, which may be reinforced by the proximity of the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$SPX Recap of Last Week - We are down on the year - at 4hr 200MANo video today guys because I had a bit of traveling this weekend and I’m just getting back to my computer, but this is a recap of last week in one chart.
We started last week with a gap up over the 50 day moving average from there, we got above the 30 minute 200MA and saw resistance at the 1H 200 moving average (green arrow) and that pushed us back down Underneath and smacked us all the way down to the four hour 200 Moving average.
We also filled that gap from the first week of the trading year and took it even lower into the election gap. So we are red on the year and sitting right on top of the four hour 200 and the election gap. (Green arrow)
S&P 500 SELL AT SUPPLY ZONE SMART MONEY CONCEPTHere on S&P 500 price has from a supply zone around level of 5958.26 and is likely to go down more so trader should go for short and expect profit target of 5875.26 with stoploss of 5986.41. Use money management
SPY Top: US Federal Reserve Emergency Rate Coming SoonI think it’s pretty clear we have avoided a recession (Jerome, Powell, 12/18/24).
One last final high on the stock market before the recession is coming in my opinion.
US500 in a Possible Bullish ABC WaveUS500 in a Possible Bullish ABC Wave
Since January 6th, the price has decreased by nearly 2.45%, from 6018 to 5871. This decline formed a 5-wave movement. It appears the bottom was completed at 5871, and the price may now start forming the C wave of the ABC pattern.
If everything proceeds as expected, US500 should develop as shown in the chart, with resistance areas found near 5927, 5962, and 5994.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Marz: Williams Forecast, Williams %R, Lead-Lag- Overlay Larry Williams annual forecast (dots on forecast are month markers aligned with chart)
- Williams %R: When above 80, market is strong, if goes below 80 sell
- Williams %R: When below 20, market is week, if goes above 20 buy
- Williams %R: Between 80 & 20, buy/sell reversals
- Use Michael Gayed weekly Lead-Lag Risk-On/Risk-Off as confirmation
- Use 200 day moving average as confirmation (orange line)
- Monthly Heiken-Ashi bars for longer-term trends, Weekly bars for shorter-term trends
SPX500 - Support Becomes ResistanceHello Traders !
On Tuesday 24 Dec, The SPX500 reached the resistance level (6010 - 6040).
The price broke the support level (5872 - 5828).
This key level becomes a new resistance level !
So, I expect a bearish move📉
______________
TARGET: 5720🎯
SPX MegaphoneHere's a one month chart for SPX. We have a giant megaphone that started at a peak near the beginning of 1973 and the bottom in 1974. This will obviously take a while to play out, but I truly believe the black swan event and major crash I've been warning about will happen very soon. 2025 will be the beginning of a time of great tribulations for all of us on Earth, but I do believe there will be a light at the end of the tunnel and there will be a generational wealth building opportunity eventually, probably around 2030ish. I do not want to be a permabear and fear monger. I have seriously never said anything like this in my life and I won't ever again because this is it. We are living through a time that will be talked about and studied for centuries, I truly believe that with every fiber of my being.
I began posting my thoughts and analysis in early 2024 and honestly the whole reason why I did that is because I felt like i knew we were about to have a melt up/blow off top for the ages followed by a devastating crash and I wanted people to know about it and the reasons why it happened. It's been a wild ride and we have witnessed a historic rally, but the end is near. The crash will be every bit as historic as the recent rally, it will be worse than 1929. We will have full scale World War 3, pandemics, currency collapses, and everything in between.
This is my final warning, things are about to get very weird and it's time for me to take a step back and focus on things that are more important to my family and I. Money is not the answer to your problems. I'm not sure if I made the right decision or not by attempting to teach people what I know about the stock market. If you've been following me, you have probably realized that I have very strong opinions about how and why stock prices move the way they do. This is a very difficult game and in the end it all comes down to psychology. No matter what I do or say, I'm not sure I can actually help anyone because it is very difficult, even if you know what is going to happen, you can still get completely destroyed.
I'm starting to feel like it's not something I should promote. I just felt strongly that I had a duty to talk about this because I know what I know and most people don't pay attention to this or have any real knowledge about markets. Those who try seem doomed to fail due to the amount of misinformation on social media and speculation about why prices move. Stock prices move because wholesale stock operators manipulate stock prices by accumulating stocks, pushing them to the highest point humanly possible and then they distribute. After they are done, stock prices begin to fall until they start accumulating again and once they are done, the whole process starts again. The fed plays a major role in this and runs the entire thing. They have finally started to pull liquidity after increasing the money supply by over 400% in just a few years, a completely insane thing to do. In December we finally saw a huge drop in liquidity and it's going to continue. Keep an eye on the M! and M2 money supply charts.
Stock prices move because there are either more buyers than sellers or vice versa, that is all. People want to speculate about why and talk about various events they think will happen or because of what they think about the economy. This is a big fallacy that has plagued retail traders since the stock market was created. Wholesalers know what will happen before it happens, they know the news that's coming most of the time and if they don't, they still use it to generate enough volume that allows them to enter and exit positions, they could not do what they do without volume from retail. If we have a bull market, negative news is ignored and positive news is highlighted. In a bear market, negative news is highlighted and positive news is ignored.
There is a reason why it costs $50k+ for just a few minutes of air time on CNBC. Inverse Cramer works because he is paid to say what he says, he says the opposite of the truth and so do the rest of the financial media outlets. 99% of retail traders are not profitable after 7 years of trading and 80% who try are finished within 2 years. It is this way by design. We all attempt to do it because we want financial freedom and to provide for our families. The problem is greed takes over and he who hastens to be rich will be punished, that is a certainty just as much as death and taxes are.
I don't know the exact time or what the exact event will be and I have no idea when it bottoms either. I do have some ideas, but that's just speculation. Either way, I know it's coming. This chart and path is my best guess as to how this will play out and it may go even lower than the 2009 low, but at that point I don't think it really matters anyway.
If you want my honest opinion (not financial advice), I think the best thing to do is to simply exit all long positions on US equities, buy gold and silver and forget about it. Focus on the important things in life instead, you will outperform almost everyone in the next 5 years if you do this. In the end, you have to do whatever you think is best and you cannot trade based on what someone else says. If you do that, you will have no idea how to manage the trade, what to expect, or how to manage emotions if it doesn't go as planned. You will lack the conviction necessary to make good decisions because you won't have any conviction if you just follow someone else and don't actually believe in the trade or know why you took the trade.
Thank you for all the support, I appreciate it and I'm sorry if you have lost money due to any of my analysis. I was just trying to help... It is time to focus on what's important in life, it is too short to spend your whole life chasing the dragon of unlimited wealth, that is not the way. I wish you all the best, Godspeed.
