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SPX500 trade ideas

Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 6,006.92 1st Support: 5,866.31 1st Resistance: 6,157.58 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
S&P500 INDEX Technical Analysis & Outlook Ahead of Fed DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The market is approaching a key week with potential volatility driven by the Fed Rate Decision and GDP data. Here's a breakdown of the scenarios: Bullish Scenario: Continuation of the Uptrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support: 6022 - Pivot Point: 6058 - Resistance Line: 6099 and 6143. Conditions for Bullish Continuation: - Price must remain above 6022 (Breakout Support Line). - Stabilization above the 6099 resistance will confirm upward momentum toward 6143 (next resistance). - This move would support a continuation of the uptrend toward a new ATH. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, the market may interpret this as dovish, fueling bullish sentiment and risk appetite. Bearish Scenario: Continuation of Downtrend: Key Levels: - Breakout Support Line: 6022 - First Support: 5971 - Next Supports: 5932 and 5863. Conditions for Bearish Reversal: - Price must break and close below 6022 on a 4-hour candle. - A break below this level opens the door to the next support at 5971. - Further bearish momentum could drive the price toward the Strong Support Zone around 5863. Fed Rate Impact: - If the Fed holds rates steady at 4.75% or signals hawkish intentions (e.g., no future rate cuts), bearish momentum may build due to reduced liquidity expectations. Trend Outlook: - Uptrend Continuation: Above 6022 and confirmed by a breakout above 6099. - Downtrend Continuation: Below 6022, targeting 5971 and lower levels. Key Summary: Bullish Confirmation: Hold above 6022 and break above 6099. Bearish Signal: Break and close below 6022, with lower targets of 5971 and 5932. Fed & GDP Impact: Monitor Fed decision for rate cuts (bullish) or no change (bearish).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
Momentum is slowing down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD started a coorection down (wave 4). The momentum of this pair is slowing down and it looks like it is making an ending diagonal. So next week we could see price come into the lower Daily/ Weekly FVG and from there we could see another upmove. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish into the FVG's and a change in orderflow to bullish. After that you could trade (short term) longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
The Bitcoin Dilemma.The Bitcoin Dilemma. Unlimited Upside Potential Since Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculative growth capital flows, much like the S&P 500, it has the potential, over very long periods of time, for continual price increases. $100K, MIL:1M , $10M, even higher... Unlimited Downside Risk Unlike an index of stocks, which can rotate out underperforming companies, Bitcoin as a standalone asset cannot. S&P 500 in comprised of 11 sectors, where an underperforming sector can pick up the slack, as capitals rotate out of the leaders. Bitcoin cannot. If faith in Bitcoin wanes or it is outcompeted by newer technologies or regulatory changes, there is no mechanism to replace it or adapt its structure. This makes it susceptible to large drops in value if the market turns negative, with theoretically no bottom in sight. #bitcoin #spx #capitalflows With all that said, I am a chart trader. I will follow the trends, using proper risk and money management, no matter how compelling (or not) a narrative or story line is. Hope you enjoyed my thoughts on this delicate subject for some! Remember, there is always something we do not know, and accepting that is the 1st step to growing and learning.
SP:SPX
by Badcharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
4.23 Breakouts in Bubbles. In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move. Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be. Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them. Let's first look at the evidence for these fibs having been useful before for the SPX rally. We'll look and see if they have reactions that would seem "Beyond chance" and if they do, then it's reasonable to think the 4.23 decision will be important too, right? And if not, then no. But obviously we'd not have a post if not. Quite useful. Not perfect, certainly very useful. Being aware of big decisions at or around these levels helped a lot. The 4.23 reaction here was very shallow. 4.23's are prone to much deeper corrections and this would be a big risk if we're inside of a false breakout of the 4.23. But if we're actually breaking it, something wild usually happens above the 4.23. Here's the fibs from the Black Monday move. The breakout above it would go on to be known as the dotcom and housing bubbles and the GFC crash would end on the 4.23 retest. Interesting, right? That was around 1996 and that happened to be the same time Nasdaq broke the 4.23. This happened after the Nasdaq break. A headliner stock of the Nasdaq bubble was CSCO. That had a couple big reactions to fibs on the way up and broke the 4.23. And this happened. Remember that time GME went up 100% in a day? That was on the 4.23 break. Then it hyper boomed and mean reverted. As with the other examples. This is a fun one. It's off topic on the bull stuff but we'll be quick. Remember that time some oil contracts negative? 4.23 breaks usually look something like this. The red trend feeling extremely strong at the time but being tame relative to the blue trend. This part of the move will have some crash pullbacks in it but feature exceptional bullish engulfing candles. All of that stuff almost invariably ends up in a bust, but it's a lot of fun at the time.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
1
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming. Chance of forming: <50%
SP:SPX
by StonkMarketParty
SPX500 Update ideaAs you know, most of the recent market growth has been due to the excessive growth of a limited number of companies, and this will certainly pose a risk to the entire market. Personally, I study market sentiment and the S&P 500 index before buying stocks. On the S&P 500 chart, after the 6030 level was broken and the pullback to it and having a trigger to enter, I started buying, but contrary to expectations, everything did not go well yesterday and the market showed that it does not have enough strength to grow. Based on my strategy, I will have to exit again. I will be in out to break the 6100 level. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by pardis
Trading the Santa Rally: How to Ride the Supposed Year-End SurgeThe Santa Rally — a festive event characterized by silent nights and active markets. Every December, traders whisper about it with a mix of excitement and skepticism. But what exactly is this supposed year-end market surge? Is it a gift from the markets or just a glittery myth? Let’s unwrap the truth. 🎅 What Is the Santa Rally? The Santa Rally refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the last few trading days of December and sometimes even the first few days of January. It’s like a financial advent calendar, but instead of dark chocolate, traders hope for green candles. The origins of this term aren’t entirely clear, but the event is widely observed. Analysts cite everything from holiday cheer to quarter-end, year-end portfolio adjustments as possible reasons. But beware — like a wrongly wrapped gift, the rally doesn’t always deliver what you expect. 🎄 Fact or Festive Fiction? The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly): Historical data does show that markets have a knack to perform well during the Santa Rally window. For instance, the S&P 500 SPX has delivered positive returns in about 75% of the observed periods since 1950. That’s better odds than guessing who’s going to win the “Ugly Sweater Contest” at the office. Not Guaranteed: However, let’s not confuse correlation with causation. While historical trends are nice to know, the market isn’t obliged to follow tradition. Geopolitical events, Fed decisions, or even a rogue tweet can easily knock this rally off course (especially now with the returning President-elect). 🚀 Why Does the Santa Rally Happen? 1️⃣ Holiday Cheer : Investors, like everyone else, might be more optimistic during the holidays, leading to increased buying momentum. After all, not many things can say “joy to the world” like a bullish portfolio. 2️⃣ Tax-Loss Harvesting : Fund managers sell off losing positions in early December to offset gains for tax purposes. By the end of the month, they’re reinvesting, potentially pushing prices higher. 3️⃣ Low Liquidity : With many big players sipping mezcal espresso martinis on the Amalfi coast, trading volumes drop. Lower liquidity can amplify price movements, making small buying pressure feel like a full-blown rally. 4️⃣ New Year Optimism : Who doesn’t love a fresh start? Many traders sign off for the quarter on a positive, upbeat note and begin setting up positions for the year ahead, adding to upward swings. ⛄️ The Myth-Busting Clause While these factors seem plausible, not every Santa Rally is a blockbuster. For example, in years of significant economic uncertainty or bearish sentiment, the holiday spirit alone isn’t enough to lift the market. 🌟 How to Trade the Santa Rally (Without Getting Grinched) 1️⃣ Set Realistic Expectations : Don’t expect a moonshot. The Santa Rally is more of a sleigh ride than a rocket launch. Focus on small, tactical trades instead of betting the farm on a rally (and yes, crypto included). 2️⃣ Watch Key Sectors : Historically, consumer discretionary and tech stocks often perform well during this period. Consider these areas, but always do your due diligence. 3️⃣ Manage Your Risk : With low liquidity, volatility can spike unexpectedly. Tighten your stop-losses and avoid overleveraging — Santa doesn’t cover margin calls. 4️⃣ Keep an Eye on Macro Events : Is the Fed hinting at rate cuts (hint: yes it is )? Is inflation stealing the spotlight (hint: yes it is )? These can overshadow any seasonal trends. ☄️ Crypto and Forex: Does Santa Visit Here Too? The Santa Rally isn’t exclusive to stocks. Forex markets can also see year-end movements as hedge funds, banks and other institutional traders close out currency positions. Meanwhile, traders in the crypto market have gotten used to living in heightened volatility not just during the holidays but at any time of the year. More recently, Donald Trump’s win was a major catalyst for an absolute beast of an updraft. 🎁 Closing Thoughts: Naughty or Nice? The Santa Rally is a fascinating mix of tradition, psychology, and market mechanics. While it’s fun to believe in a market jolly, it’s better to stay prepared for anything out of the ordinary. So, are you betting on a rally this year, or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s discuss — drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us how you’re planning to trade the year-end rush! 🎅📈
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
9