SPX500 trade ideas
S&P drops 1.5% in worst session of '25S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after retest of all time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at 5980 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance now newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 5980 level could target the upside resistance at 6070 (20 DMA) followed by the 6100 and 6140 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 5980 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5920 support level followed by 5830.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX -waiting for Bearish Confirmation Candle SPX is forming a reversal pattern. it is possible that it may reach back to $5878 level in coming moths.!!
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025
Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are.
The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one.
Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
Why Patience is Everything in Trading
There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where:
Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea)
It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown)
Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely)
Still Watching Two Scenarios
☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry
Needs price to confirm above key resistance
No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum
Only then do I consider a bullish trade
☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry
Needs clear rejection at resistance
No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation
Only then do I take a bearish setup
Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game
Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you.
Every trader, at some point, has thought:
"It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.)
"I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.)
"Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.)
The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade.
What’s Next?
✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough
✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation
✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid
📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know?
The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup.
💡 The Lesson?
Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
S&P internals and momentum show waekness These both divergences show short term weakness in the S&P 500
This does not mean that there are opportunities out there, european markets are showing strength
Even some S&P sectors still have good relative strength: AMEX:XSW AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC
But commodities are even better, just see AMEX:DBA making new 52-week highs
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders.
In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action.
The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows:
PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3
S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high
S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low)
R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low
R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low)
The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading
1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action
One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI.
Example:
In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Riding the Breakout
When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies.
Example:
In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Target Setting and Risk Management
Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move.
Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk.
Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools
While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness:
VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone.
Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points.
RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal.
Example:
In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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SPX: risky optimismA strong performance of the S&P 500 and increased investors optimism was back during the previous week. Despite hotter than expected inflation figures for January, the market was pushing the index to the higher grounds during the week. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday at 6.122, still the ATH has not been breached on this occasion. The reason for investors optimism analysts are noting a more clarity over US Administration trade tariffs, on one side, and a drop in retail sales of -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectations. The combination of released data is pointing that the current elevated inflation is not putting pressure on Fed rates. The S&P 500 gained around 1,5% for the week.
Analysts from JPMorgan noted that the participation of earnings of the so-called Magnificent Seven tech companies included in the S&P 500 index are beginning to slow down compared to other companies included in this index. On the other hand, analysts from Swiss largest bank, UBS, are pointing to potential negative effects of US trade tariffs for the US economy. They are mentioning retaliation risks from trading with the US in case of higher tariffs. This points out that despite current market optimism, there are still ongoing risks which could easily impact investors' optimistic mood, and bring back higher volatility to the US equity markets.
S&P500 - Long from bullish OB !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on US500.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. My point of interest is imbalance filled + rejection from bullish OB.
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S&P500 Channel Up priced a bottom. Buy.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20 day Channel Up.
The price hit today the 1hour MA200, while the 1hour RSI breached the oversold limit and rebounded.
The two times this happened before, it was a signal that the Channel Up has formed a bottom.
The bullish waves that followed, rose by at least +2.00%.
Buy and target 6200 as the new higher high of the Channel.
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SP500 | Pivot Zone Retest – Will the Support Hold?S&P 500 Analysis | February 21, 2025
The price is currently consolidating within the pivot zone (6,102 - 6,143), which is acting as a key level.
🔹 A break below 6,102 will confirm a bearish move toward 6,031 and 5,979, continuing the downward trend.
🔹 If the price stabilizes above 6,143, we may see an attempt to break toward 6,168 and 6,224 as the next resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 6128
Resistance: 6143 - 6168 - 6224
Support: 6102 - 6079 - 6031 -
US500 NEW PRICE !hello friends
As you can see, this index tried to break its ceiling 2 times, which faced correction, but in the third encounter, it succeeded in breaking the ceiling and was able to give this signal that the price can go up to 6200 or even higher.
*Trade safely with us*
SPX: Market Reflexivity & Fractal PatternsIn this idea I would like to walk you through some principles which I use to find and relate historical complexities within rhyming cycles.
Market Reflexivity
Market reflexivity is a concept introduced by George Soros that defies the traditional TA notion of efficient markets by revealing that price movements do not merely reflect fundamentals — they actively shape them. As prices rise, optimism fuels further buying, creating a self-reinforcing loop inflating bubbles. Conversely, declining prices trigger fear, accelerating downturns. Reflexivity explains why trends persist and why reversals can be abrupt, as self-sustaining cycles eventually reach a exhaustion point.
To put it simply, there is a feedback loop between market participants’ perceptions and actual market conditions, suggesting that financial markets are not always in equilibrium because collective investor behavior actively drives price movements, which in turn influences future investor behavior.
Feedback Loops
Each massive rally eventually creates conditions that lead to overvaluation, resulting in sharp corrections.
Self-Fulfilling Expectations
Market participants, reacting to past price behavior, reinforce trends until a breaking point.
Structural Adaptation
Every major correction resets valuations, allowing for the next cycle to begin with renewed confidence and capital inflows.
Practical Application of Reflexivity
Compared to many tickers, SPX has exhibited relatively stable growth throughout history. Over the past 70 years, the most significant panic-driven decline occurred after its 2007 peak, with a 57% drop that defined a major cycle. Growth resumed in 2009, making this swing a key reference point for establishing historical relationships.
I see the Dotcom and Housing crisis-induced declines as part of a broader complexity, shaped by prior long-term growth. The two cycles appear as they do because they stem from an extended structural uptrend, not just the 250% surge from 1994 to the bubble top, which lacked a significant preceding decline. Cause-and-effect logic suggests that these crashes were a reaction to a much larger uptrend that began in 1974. A 2447% rally provides a more compelling reason for mass panic and selling, as corrections of such magnitude are rare.
Intuitively, the 2447% long-term upswing should have been preceded by a decline similar to the Dotcom and Housing crashes. This holds true, as the market experienced a nearly 50% drop after peaking in 1973 and 37% in 1968, following the same cyclical pattern of deep corrections leading to extended expansions. These corrections were relatively smaller than the Dotcom and Housing crashes because they are followed by a comparatively smaller 1452% rally from the end of WWII.
Multi-Fractals
Multifractals in market analysis describe the non-linear, self-similar nature of price movements, where volatility and risk vary across different scales. Unlike simple fractals with a constant fractal dimension, multifractals exhibit multiple fractal dimensions, creating varying levels of roughness. Benoit Mandelbrot introduced multifractal Time Series to refine the classic random walk theory, recognizing that price movements occur in bursts of volatility followed by calm periods. Instead of a single Hurst exponent, markets display a spectrum of exponents, reflecting diverse scaling behaviors and explaining why price action appears random at times but reveals structured patterns over different time horizons.
This justifies viewing price action within its structural cause-and-effect framework, where micro and macro cycles are interdependent, while oscillating at different frequencies. Therefore, we will apply the building blocks independently from boundaries of Full Fractal Cycle.
Since volatility varies, this reserves us the right to extract patterns with identical slope and roughness, and by method of exclusion relate to recent cycles starting from covid.
SPX500USD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,134.7.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,040.9 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SPX500 : Important support for purchaseshello friends
Considering the drop we had, now we can buy step by step on the specified supports in the low time with risk and capital management...
*Trade safely with us*
US500 BUYhello friends
Considering that the price is in the ascending channel, we expect the price to move up to our target, which is the green line.
Or break the specified support and start moving from the bottom of the channel.
*Trade safely with us*
SPX Losing Steam As RRP Runs to ZeroSP:SPX has been enjoying lots of liquidity from the reverse repo facility at the Fed recently, but this balance is soon going to zero as indicated by the trend shown in the chart. The orange line is an inverted RRP chart to show the correlation with SPX going up.
As liquidity in RRP runs out, the monthly SPX MACD also looks as if it's ready to swing down. The timing for when SPX rolls over is a challenge due to many factors, but RRP is on track to be zero within a month, and this will take away one major liquidity source driving markets. This event will be one to keep an eye on.
Updated S&P 500 Long Term Elliott Wave Count 2/17/25 The S&P 500 (SPX) could be very near the completion of a 28 – month extended Elliott Impulse wave that began in October 2022.
There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. Followers to my website will notice that the count illustrated in this post is slightly different to what was shown on the website. Both wave counts have the same message – a multi – month or even a multi- year SPX bear market could begin in a few trading days.
Both weekly RSI and MACD have multiple bearish divergences which imply the SPX could soon decline 20% or more!
I will soon post another shorter – term SPX wave count illustrating a fascinating Elliott wave structure.
SPX | TARGETING 6198 LEVELThe price has reached a new high of 6141 before experiencing a decline and is currently trading within the range of this level and the support at 6102. It appears that the price may test the 6102 level as a corrective move before rebounding to surpass the all-time high (ATH) and advancing toward the next target at 6198.
However, if the price continues its decline to 6070 or lower, it will confirm the activation of a bearish trend.
SPX500 (NEW DECLINE AHEAD...)SPX500 Technical Analysis
The price is consolidating near 6,142, testing the all-time high without a strong breakout. If it breaks and sustains above 6,198, the bullish trend may continue, leading to new highs. However, the presence of a rising wedge suggests a potential reversal if resistance holds.
If the price fails to break higher, a retracement toward 6,074 is likely. A confirmed bearish trend would require breaking below 6,038 and 6,002.
The key zone between 6,142 and 6,198 will determine the next move. Holding below resistance could lead to a bearish correction, while a breakout above 6,198 would signal further bullish momentum.
Agree or disagree? Let’s discuss in the comments. Your market perspective matters!
S&P500 retesting ATH,The Week Ahead 17th Feb 25The S&P (US500) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on Friday 24th Jan the S&P index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range.
The key trading level is at 6012, which is the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6012 level could target the upside resistance at 6080 followed by the 6117 and 6130 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 6012 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook targeting a further retracement and a retest of 5964 support level followed by 5925.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 20
Not a terribly difficult trading range today.
ATH’s above us, 35EMA below, bottom of the implied move 6115 has a previous support.
Bearish divergence in strength. 30min 200MA on deck (maybe close to where it crosses the downtrend) if we close under the 35EMA.
Pretty bullish setup overall but overbought and bearish divergence. Low volume too which is driving me crazy but we don’t seem to get any sell off volume.
S&P500 consolidation is over. Massive rally starting.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 Low. For almost the past 30 days it has been ranging sideways on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The index is no stranger to this at all.
On the contrary, this is a common Consolidation Phase that SPX has been through another 3 times within the Channel Up. As you can see, every time the index recovered from a Bearish Leg below the 1D MA50, it consolidated for around 1 month above the 1D MA50 and then resumed the Bullish Leg to complete at least a +15% rise from the bottom.
The 1D RSI sequences among all those fractals (including today's) are identical. As a result, we are preparing for a massive rally any day now, expecting a new +15% Bullish Leg to reach at least 6600.
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