SPX - June ProjectionsMay showed price heading back up to the high. This is four months now from the previous top. Generally for a major top to exhibit itself, it might take only three months to test. Four months is also not uncommon so it is possible that today's close will be last positive monthly close in a while.
I expect that the price will continue to rise, probably above the 6010 level of the last monthly closing high. If price surpasses the previous monthly close high, I will be watching for a turnaround, with prices eventually closing out June to the downside.
To me, based on the 40-month moving average. I have noticed that usually waves 2 and 4 have strong support at the 40 month moving average, where more major corrections will see price go below it. As price just came down to that level and didn't break it, we are in or have finished a wave 4. I'm still looking for lower prices assuming that this wave 4 to be a Flat with more sideways action ahead.
Currently short SP
SPX500 trade ideas
SPX week & month review 5/30/25Intrigued by today as we closed the month and week. The charts appear bullish until something changes that. Key points I noticed...
*Monthly morning star pattern
*RSI above 50 on month and week chart
*MACD over zero line and signal up on month and week chart
*Key levels holding up (21 ema, FVGs)
We are still in volatile times and narratives are being thrown all over the place. Do you see what I see? Enjoy your weekend.
[05/27] Weekly GEX Outlook for SPX⚠️ Unbalanced GEX & Institutional Hedging – A Closer Look
I haven’t seen such an asymmetric GEX setup in quite a while — and it’s definitely not a pretty one 😬. The current profile suggests a highly skewed positioning in the market:
📍 Massive upside expectation:
It feels like the market is almost exclusively preparing for a move toward 6000.
🛑 Limited downside protection:
Below the current level, there's very little hedging in place — especially unusual with Friday’s expiry approaching.
🔻 Current Key Zone: 5925-5930
The largest put open interest is sitting right around 5925, which is also close to spot.
Below that? Things get murky. The GEX profile becomes fragmented and mixed, with no clear put support until much lower.
Interestingly, most of the current downside hedging is clustered around the 5900–5925 range, which includes ITM puts — not OTM, as you’d typically expect from retail.
🧠 Institutional Footprint vs. Retail
This hedging pattern — closer to ATM rather than deep OTM — suggests institutional players are managing downside risk with precision.
In contrast, retail traders don’t seem to be actively hedging the downside with OTM puts, which is a notable shift from typical behavior in high-IV weeks like this.
🔼 What to Watch: The 5930 Breakout
If SPX can break and hold above 5930, it enters a clear, call-dominated zone.
From there, the path to 6000 looks much cleaner, with lighter resistance and the potential for a gamma-driven push 📈.
The details show the same picture when examining more details:
SPX conclusion
😬 In short: we’re at a tipping point.
Below 5900, hedging is tactical and institutional.
Above 5900, the path is open to 6000 — but only if bulls can take control at 5930!
June is expected to be bllodbathHistorical trends suggest that June tends to be a weaker month for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a modest gain of just 0.1% over the past 20 years, according to CFRA Research. Seasonal factors, including lower trading volumes and investor caution ahead of mid-year earnings, often contribute to subdued performance.
Despite May’s gains, analysts warn of a potential pullback in June. Market sentiment remains fragile amid lingering Fed rate uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has ticked higher, signaling growing caution (MarketWatch).
The potential return of Trump-era trade policies—including aggressive tariffs—has injected uncertainty into markets. Investors fear renewed trade wars could disrupt supply chains and inflate costs, weighing on corporate profits
In conclusion, while May delivered a bullish surprise, investors should brace for increased volatility in June. Historical trends, coupled with overbought conditions, suggest a correction may be on the horizon.
Expect a major pullback to test previous lows of ~5000
S&P500 6300 is the minimum short-term Target right now.The S&P500 index (SPX) is extending Friday's rebound on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) following an impressive rally after the April 07 bottom. That is technically the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
This quick consolidation technically resembles all 4 short-term pull-backs (blue circles) that took place since April 2023. The minimum % rise on those before they pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again was +10%.
As a result, we expect 6300 to be the minimum Target by the end of July, which of course will be an All Time High.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,973.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SPY update - still bullish!In today’s session, we saw an increase in volume without significant price movement. This could indicate underlying uncertainty or a potential shift in momentum.
At the moment, price is still respecting a key trend line and several support levels. Until these are broken, it's too early to confirm whether the broader market is turning bearish.
🧠 I also want to point out that the price is forming an ascending channel, often a reversal pattern, especially when occurring at market highs. While we’re seeing some bearish signs, it’s crucial to remain patient and let the market show its hand.
📊 As always, the key is to observe, not assume, and be ready to adapt as the price action develops.
Thanks for watching the update, I hope it brought some insight and value to your trading journey!
S&P 500 MAJOR REVERSAL INCOMING? | SPX500 SELL ZONE HIT SPX500 just tapped into a critical supply zone near 5985 and has started pulling back. Is this the beginning of a deeper correction? Here’s what I’m watching 👇
---
📊 Key Technical Zones:
🔵 Supply Zone: 5985 – 6000 (Strong historical rejection zone)
⚠️ First Support: 5436.1 – potential bounce area, but already tested
🧱 Major Demand Zone: 4990 – heavy volume base, ideal buy zone for bulls
---
🚨 Bearish Clues on the Chart:
Price got rejected at the top of the supply range with a strong wick.
Bearish divergence on recent highs (not shown here but evident on RSI/MACD).
Clean downside structure could target 5436, then 4990 if broken.
📉 Downside Projections:
First TP: 5436
Final TP: 4990 (big institutional interest)
---
🔁 Possible Scenarios:
1. 🔻 Bearish Continuation: If we break below recent support near 5880, expect speed towards 5436.
2. 🟢 Bullish Fakeout: Only a strong breakout above 5985 invalidates this setup.
---
🎯 Trade Idea (Educational):
Entry: Break and retest below 5880
SL: Above 5985 zone
TP1: 5436
TP2: 4990
---
📅 June Will Be Volatile – Stay prepared.
💬 Do you think this is the start of a correction or just a dip before ATH?
🔔 Follow @FrankFx14 for clean and professional chart updates! 👍 Like, 🔁 share, and 💭 comment your thoughts below!
S&P INTRADAY corrective pullback - pivotal zoneMacro & FX Outlook
Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% decline in the US dollar by mid-2026, driven by a slowing US economy and expected Fed rate cuts.
Trading implication: Long positions in EUR, GBP, and other G10 currencies may benefit as USD weakens. Watch for renewed momentum in carry trades and emerging market FX.
Geopolitics
Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates with Ukrainian drone strikes hitting deep into Russia (including Siberia) and Moscow launching one of its most sustained aerial attacks.
Peace talks are expected in Turkey today.
Trading implication: Elevated geopolitical risk could support safe havens (gold, CHF, USD short-term) and oil prices, depending on energy infrastructure vulnerability.
UK Defense Spending
The UK will allocate £15 billion to expand its nuclear warhead program, new attack submarines, and build munitions factories.
Trading implication: Likely to support defense sector stocks and raise questions around fiscal policy ahead of elections; may contribute to upward pressure on gilts if deficits widen.
Poland Political Shift
Nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins presidential election, a setback for Poland’s pro-EU coalition government.
Trading implication: Potential increase in EU policy friction. May weigh on Polish assets and zloty (PLN) in the short term.
US Debt Ceiling & Diplomacy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assured markets the US will not default but gave no timeline on cash exhaustion.
Also noted a Trump–Xi call is imminent, aiming to ease US-China tensions.
Trading implication: Uncertainty over Treasury liquidity may raise short-term bill yields. Any improvement in US-China relations could lift global risk sentiment and Chinese equities.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6010
Resistance Level 2: 6070
Resistance Level 3: 6160
Support Level 1: 5780
Support Level 2: 5740
Support Level 3: 5700
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 awaits Trade Balance and Jobless Claims figuresTrump Tightens Immigration: Bans people from 12 countries, limits entry from 7 more, and blocks foreign students from attending Harvard.
Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Putin plans to strike back after a Ukrainian drone attack. Trump says Russia’s allies won’t profit from rebuilding Ukraine.
UK Housing Boom: Home sales rose 6% in May, the strongest in 3+ years, despite the end of a buyer tax break.
Germany & U.S.: German politician Friedrich Merz meets Trump today. At home, Germany faces rising public concern about tough economic times.
ECB Rate Cut Likely: The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 0.25% to 2%, but may slow further cuts soon.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Key trading leel is at: 6000
Resistance Level 1: 6090
Resistance Level 2: 6140
Resistance Level 3: 6200
Support Level 1: 5900
Support Level 2: 5845
Support Level 3: 5800
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop.
Critical decision point ahead.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior.
📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX)
🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025)
The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green).
Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength.
The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022).
🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs):
Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event
1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation
1987 -37% Black Monday
2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst
2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis
2020 -35% COVID crash
2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike
2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high
Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up.
🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines)
📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns
2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence.
2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized.
2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal.
2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment.
📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up.
🔄 Current Price Context (2025)
Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH.
Support levels to watch:
MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone.
Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600).
The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep.
📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025?
The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets.
The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections.
However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market.
🔎 Key Takeaways
✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals:
Decades of higher highs/lows.
Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support.
Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines.
⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks:
Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007).
21% pullback already in place, which could deepen.
Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%).
🧭 Strategic Outlook
Timeframe Bias Reason
Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment
bearish, overextension unwinding
Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying
opportunity like 2011, 2020
Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull
likely to resume
here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown:
🎯 Chart Summary:
Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones
Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74)
🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown
📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones:
The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels.
Level Price Interpretation
0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning
0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone
0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone
0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest
1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance
The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal.
📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA:
The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612).
Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling.
If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile
Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151)
Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower)
This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside.
🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside):
Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support.
This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside):
If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely.
Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift.
🧠 Expert Insight:
This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of:
Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618),
200-day MA support,
and recent ATH rejection
...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500.
Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
SPX500 Macro + Technical + Probabilistic AnalysisPublished: June 3, 2025
🔍 Chart Breakdown (Daily | LuxAlgo + EW + SMC)
Structure Summary:
🔶 Wave Count: Completing Wave (5), with price nearing exhaustion
🔴 Weak High Zone: ~6,100–6,200 = liquidity magnet
🟥 Premium Zone: Between current price and 6,426
🟦 Equilibrium Zone: ~4,950–5,150
🟩 Discount Zone: ~4,150 = long re-entry or cycle bottom if correction occurs
📅 Key Timing Line: June 17, 2025 = potential reversal date (time-based confluence)
Volume Analysis:
🔊 Volume spikes at Wave 2 and Wave 4 suggest reactive participation
📉 Lower volume into recent highs suggests distribution, not accumulation
🔁 Multi-Timeframe Outlook
Timeframe Direction Probability Rationale
Intraday (15M) Bearish 60% Weak high rejection, premium zone swept, liquidity-based reversal
Swing (2–3 weeks) Bullish → Bearish 70% to 6,420 → then reversal Wave 5 completion into supply zone, followed by corrective ABC
Macro (Q3–Q4 2025) Bearish 80% Likely mean reversion toward equilibrium (5,000) or discount (4,200)
📊 Key Price Zones to Watch
Level Label Strategy
6,426 🎯 Wave 5 Target Look for exhaustion, divergence, or liquidity sweep
6,150–6,200 🟥 Weak High / Premium Possible fake-out zone or reversal trigger
5,900 🔵 Short-term support Likely retest zone on first rejection
5,150–4,950 ⚖️ Equilibrium Mid-cycle mean reversion target
4,150 🟩 Discount/Strong Low Long reload zone if correction deepens
⚠️ Risk Considerations
Macro Data Watchlist: June 12 CPI + June 17 FOMC = macro catalysts for Wave 5 peak
Invalidation: If price holds above 6,450 after June 17, EW count must be adjusted
Alternative Count: Parabolic Wave 5 extensions can overshoot — be cautious shorting early
S&P 4Hr. will likely correct further towards 5725!1). That will complete the ABC correction on the wave 4 drop! 2). there's a lot of support in that area, since trend is intersecting the 50% fib level! 3). Price will also close the remaining gap! 4). Banks are buying as revealed by our Indicator! 5). NOTICE THE HUGE VOLUME PROFILE, WHICH SUPPORTS WAVE 5! 6). Also, the Bond market rallied, which is positive for Risk Assets!
Are we trading the market or trading our own opinion?It was said that 99% of the traders out there failed to make profits.
I pondered hard over this statement and realised that whatever tools I am using, it is equally available to the millions of traders out there. The same for the financial information which I read on CNBC, SCMP, etc. Nothing that I have is one level above others.
Then, when I look at the charts, for a long time, I have also convinced myself of buying at support and selling at resistance and gaps get filled up. From this chart, we can see that 3x the support failed with the last one breaking past the support line before staging a rebound.
Just because it has worked in the past, it does not mean it will again. 19 Feb to 7 Apr 2025, this must be the shortest bear market in history. Could we witness more of such rise and fall in the coming future?
Most would hesitate to go LONG now for one of these reasons :
1) it is reaching the resistance level soon and likely profit taking so price may retrace. Let's wait.
2) Donald Trump and team is getting sued on the tariff matters , volatility is expected in the market so price may move sideways for a while
3) The US market is overvalued per many analysts out there, PE over 28 or 30 and the fall is going to be great like 40-50% downfall. Wait some more or taking partial profits
4) My friends are making good money from cryptocurrency and the profits are huge, I should ditch SPX and followed him
The list could goes on.........
I am still LONG on the SPX and is now awaiting for opportunities to accumulate. What is stopping me is the gap and resistance which I am afraid of. In my mind, I am thinking it is better to get it cheaper , right ?
Guess I am looking for a catalyst or better reasons to convince me to go LONG.............
Like to hear some others views
S&P500: Gearing up for a push to 6,100S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.611, MACD = 85.830, ADX = 19.630) as it has been trading inside a Channel Up for over a month. Right now it is halfway through the new bullish wave. We expect it to rise by at least +4.40%, same as the previous one. Stay bullish as long as the 4H MA50 holds, TP = 6,100.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
The close - no bells ring at a topMy feeling right now is one of deja vu. Like the bottom before the president delayed tariffs, there was no volume and my assumption was we would go a bit lower. Here we have no volume and my assumption has been we will go a bit higher. Could we top here? It's possible. The bear divergences are pointing to a move down at least temporarily.