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$SPX Recap of Last Week - We are down on the year - at 4hr 200MANo video today guys because I had a bit of traveling this weekend and I’m just getting back to my computer, but this is a recap of last week in one chart. We started last week with a gap up over the 50 day moving average from there, we got above the 30 minute 200MA and saw resistance at the 1H 200 moving average (green arrow) and that pushed us back down Underneath and smacked us all the way down to the four hour 200 Moving average. We also filled that gap from the first week of the trading year and took it even lower into the election gap. So we are red on the year and sitting right on top of the four hour 200 and the election gap. (Green arrow)
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
S&P 500 Analysis: Key Levels and Impact of CPI Release, To down! S&P 500 Analysis The price has dropped, breaking the trend line and stabilizing below the support zone. As long as the price remains below 5783 this week, it is expected to target 5734 and 5693. If a 4-hour candle closes below 5693, the price could continue to drop toward 5643. On the other hand, a daily candle closing above 5805 would signal a bullish move toward 5863. Note: This week, the CPI release is anticipated to have a significant impact on market movements. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5781 Resistance Levels: 5822, 5863, 5893 Support Levels: 5734, 5693, 5643 Trend Outlook Bearish Trend: Below 5783 Bullish Trend: Above 5805 (daily close required)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month LowS&P 500 Index Drops to 2-Month Low On Friday, the US unemployment data was released, as reported by ForexFactory: → The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%; → The number of new jobs (Non-Farm Employment Change) increased by 256,000 over the month, although analysts had forecast an increase of 164,000 (previous value = 212,000). According to Reuters, the strong labour market data strengthened the market participants' view that the Federal Reserve will be cautious in cutting interest rates in 2025. Based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to reduce borrowing costs for the first time in June and then keep it at that level for the remainder of the year. Expectations that tight monetary policy will persist longer than usual have led to bearish sentiment. As a result, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) dropped below the 5,800 mark this morning, its lowest point since early November. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows: → A bearish Head and Shoulders (SHS) pattern is visible on the chart; → The price has broken below the median of the ascending channel (marked in blue). The strengthening bearish sentiment may lead to: → The price fluctuating within the descending channel, the boundaries of which are already visible (marked in red); → The median of this red channel currently acting as support. It is possible that the intensification of bearish sentiment will result in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) declining towards the 5,700 level, which may be reinforced by the proximity of the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
2
SPX MegaphoneHere's a one month chart for SPX. We have a giant megaphone that started at a peak near the beginning of 1973 and the bottom in 1974. This will obviously take a while to play out, but I truly believe the black swan event and major crash I've been warning about will happen very soon. 2025 will be the beginning of a time of great tribulations for all of us on Earth, but I do believe there will be a light at the end of the tunnel and there will be a generational wealth building opportunity eventually, probably around 2030ish. I do not want to be a permabear and fear monger. I have seriously never said anything like this in my life and I won't ever again because this is it. We are living through a time that will be talked about and studied for centuries, I truly believe that with every fiber of my being. I began posting my thoughts and analysis in early 2024 and honestly the whole reason why I did that is because I felt like i knew we were about to have a melt up/blow off top for the ages followed by a devastating crash and I wanted people to know about it and the reasons why it happened. It's been a wild ride and we have witnessed a historic rally, but the end is near. The crash will be every bit as historic as the recent rally, it will be worse than 1929. We will have full scale World War 3, pandemics, currency collapses, and everything in between. This is my final warning, things are about to get very weird and it's time for me to take a step back and focus on things that are more important to my family and I. Money is not the answer to your problems. I'm not sure if I made the right decision or not by attempting to teach people what I know about the stock market. If you've been following me, you have probably realized that I have very strong opinions about how and why stock prices move the way they do. This is a very difficult game and in the end it all comes down to psychology. No matter what I do or say, I'm not sure I can actually help anyone because it is very difficult, even if you know what is going to happen, you can still get completely destroyed. I'm starting to feel like it's not something I should promote. I just felt strongly that I had a duty to talk about this because I know what I know and most people don't pay attention to this or have any real knowledge about markets. Those who try seem doomed to fail due to the amount of misinformation on social media and speculation about why prices move. Stock prices move because wholesale stock operators manipulate stock prices by accumulating stocks, pushing them to the highest point humanly possible and then they distribute. After they are done, stock prices begin to fall until they start accumulating again and once they are done, the whole process starts again. The fed plays a major role in this and runs the entire thing. They have finally started to pull liquidity after increasing the money supply by over 400% in just a few years, a completely insane thing to do. In December we finally saw a huge drop in liquidity and it's going to continue. Keep an eye on the M! and M2 money supply charts. Stock prices move because there are either more buyers than sellers or vice versa, that is all. People want to speculate about why and talk about various events they think will happen or because of what they think about the economy. This is a big fallacy that has plagued retail traders since the stock market was created. Wholesalers know what will happen before it happens, they know the news that's coming most of the time and if they don't, they still use it to generate enough volume that allows them to enter and exit positions, they could not do what they do without volume from retail. If we have a bull market, negative news is ignored and positive news is highlighted. In a bear market, negative news is highlighted and positive news is ignored. There is a reason why it costs $50k+ for just a few minutes of air time on CNBC. Inverse Cramer works because he is paid to say what he says, he says the opposite of the truth and so do the rest of the financial media outlets. 99% of retail traders are not profitable after 7 years of trading and 80% who try are finished within 2 years. It is this way by design. We all attempt to do it because we want financial freedom and to provide for our families. The problem is greed takes over and he who hastens to be rich will be punished, that is a certainty just as much as death and taxes are. I don't know the exact time or what the exact event will be and I have no idea when it bottoms either. I do have some ideas, but that's just speculation. Either way, I know it's coming. This chart and path is my best guess as to how this will play out and it may go even lower than the 2009 low, but at that point I don't think it really matters anyway. If you want my honest opinion (not financial advice), I think the best thing to do is to simply exit all long positions on US equities, buy gold and silver and forget about it. Focus on the important things in life instead, you will outperform almost everyone in the next 5 years if you do this. In the end, you have to do whatever you think is best and you cannot trade based on what someone else says. If you do that, you will have no idea how to manage the trade, what to expect, or how to manage emotions if it doesn't go as planned. You will lack the conviction necessary to make good decisions because you won't have any conviction if you just follow someone else and don't actually believe in the trade or know why you took the trade. Thank you for all the support, I appreciate it and I'm sorry if you have lost money due to any of my analysis. I was just trying to help... It is time to focus on what's important in life, it is too short to spend your whole life chasing the dragon of unlimited wealth, that is not the way. I wish you all the best, Godspeed.
SP:SPXShort
by AdvancedPlays
12
SPX: correction is over?The start of the year was not very pleasant for the US equity markets. The latest drop in the value of the major US indices was induced by adjusted expectations on the effects of “higher for longer” interest rates in the US. Namely, the US economy is standing relatively good with a still strong jobs market. The US added 256K jobs in December, which was strongly higher from market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1 percentage points, to the level of 4,1%. These figures are absolutely good for the US economy, however, they did not make investors happy. The tricky part is that the market is now expecting that the Fed will halt further decrease of interest rates, where some analysts are noting the potential for the first 25 bps cut in September this year. The environment of still increased interest rates will not support the growth of US companies, especially small-caps, in a way that the market has previously estimated. This was the initial premise, based on which, the S&P 500 ended the week lower, reaching the level of 5.827 on Friday. At this moment the main question is whether the market will continue with a correction, or is it now a good time to buy the dip? Probably some higher volatility is expected around and on the day of the FOMC meeting in January, when investors will get additional information regarding the course of the US interest rates from FED officials. This date will set the course for the rest of the year. Still, during this period some higher volatility is possible. In technical analysis there is a clear line which connects bottoms on a 1D chart, from October 2023, then bottom in august 2024 and current bottom at Fridays levels. So, charts are noting, if this level is sustained during the next week or two, then the market will revert back to the upside. In case that current levels are breached toward the downside, that should be an indication of a higher correction in the future period.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Understanding Risk Asymmetry in a Table▮ Introduction With TradingView's new table creation feature , you can easily create and customize tables to enhance your trading analysis and presentations. In this article I'll use it to explain Risk Asymmetry . Trading involves a constant evaluation of risk and reward . One of the critical concepts that traders need to understand is risk asymmetry . This concept highlights how losses and gains are not symmetrical. In other words, the percentage gain required to recover from a loss is greater than the percentage loss itself. This article explores risk asymmetry and illustrates it with a practical example. ▮ What is Risk Asymmetry? Risk asymmetry refers to the disproportionate relationship between losses and the gains required to recover from those losses. For instance, if you lose 10% of your investment, you need to gain more than 10% to get back to your original amount. This is because the base amount has decreased after the loss. Understanding risk asymmetry is crucial for traders because it affects their risk management strategies. Knowing that larger losses require exponentially larger gains to recover can help traders make more informed decisions about their trades and risk exposure. ▮ Illustrating Risk Asymmetry To illustrate risk asymmetry, let's consider an initial investment of $1000. The table below shows the required gain to recover from various percentage losses: Explanation: - Loss (%): The percentage loss from the initial amount. - Value Lost ($): The lost monetary value from the initial amount. - Amount After Loss ($): The remaining amount after the loss. - Required Gain for Recovery (%): The percentage gain required to recover to the initial amount. This table highlights the asymmetry in trading losses and gains. As the loss percentage increases, the required gain to recover the initial amount increases disproportionately. For example, if you lose 50% of your initial amount ( $500 ), it is not enough for you to gain 50% , because the amount left after the loss is $500 , and a 50% gain on the amount of $500 is $250 , which would result in a total amount of $750 with a remaining loss of $250 ! So, the most important question is not how much can I win , but how much can I lose . Curiosity: Why 100% is not applicable (-) in this table? When you lose 100% of your investment, you have lost all your capital. Therefore, there is no remaining amount to recover from, and it is impossible to gain back to the initial amount from zero. This is why the required gain are marked as not applicable. ▮ Conclusion Understanding risk asymmetry can help traders in several ways: 1. Risk Management: traders can set stop-loss levels to limit their losses and avoid the need for large gains to recover. 2. Position Sizing: by understanding the potential impact of losses, traders can size their positions more conservatively. 3. Psychological Preparedness: knowing the challenges of recovering from significant losses can help traders maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making. It is one thing to lose 100% of a dollar on a casino bet; it is quite another to lose 100% of a lifetime's worth of capital. Therefore, the larger the capital at stake, the smaller the amount of money that should ideally be risked.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by andre_007
5
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.13.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 14 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%) 📅 Wed Jan 15 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%) 📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%) 📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (prev: 0.2%) ⏰ 10:30am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M 📅 Thu Jan 16 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%) 📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%) 📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K) 📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -7.0 (prev: -16.4) 📅 Fri Jan 17 ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M) 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: The markets will get a few days of a bullish run. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXLong
by PogChan
Marz: Williams Forecast, Williams %R, Lead-Lag- Overlay Larry Williams annual forecast (dots on forecast are month markers aligned with chart) - Williams %R: When above 80, market is strong, if goes below 80 sell - Williams %R: When below 20, market is week, if goes above 20 buy - Williams %R: Between 80 & 20, buy/sell reversals - Use Michael Gayed weekly Lead-Lag Risk-On/Risk-Off as confirmation - Use 200 day moving average as confirmation (orange line) - Monthly Heiken-Ashi bars for longer-term trends, Weekly bars for shorter-term trends
SP:SPX
by VictorMarz
2
Calm before the storm?The first ten days of the year for the S&P 500 index were surprisingly calm and without the interest it had in other years, finding it making a sideways downward movement towards the double "cushion" of support that is presented on the weekly price chart between 5,850 and 5,740 units. An important anti-shock zone that has the ability to absorb any liquidations that come out without spoiling the indication of the medium-term upward trend. The negative element is that with the sideways stabilizing movement that the index has been making since the beginning of last November between 6,100 and 5,850 points, it has brought closer to the very heavy 200-day moving average, which has now climbed to 5,657 points or -4% from current price levels. The week that will begin is therefore important as the index will have to show us its cards with what it intends to do. Thus, a possible passage of the index below 5,800 points will raise the attention of sellers since it will give them the right to push it further towards 5,740 and 5,700 points. On the other hand, a dynamic push above 5,800 points may bring 6,000 points back into the spotlight. Analysts may now be giving higher target prices for the S&P 500 for 2025, but at the same time they are expressing some skepticism about the ability of the "Magnificent 7" to pull the chariot on the uphill road to 7,000 points. Characteristic are the "pulled" figures that give both the P/E ratio and the P/S ratio for these seven giants in relation to the average of the S&P 500. So while the index has a P/E of 28 and a P/S of 3, Tesla has a P/E of 111 (!) and a P/S of 15, Nvidia P/E:53 and P/S:29, Amazon P/E:47 and P/S:3.8, Apple P/E:41 and P/S:10, Microsoft P/E:35 and P/S:12, Meta P/E:28 and P/S:9.8 and finally Google appears with P/E:25 and P/S:7.1. Indeed, the indicators show an "overflow" in the capitalization of the "Magnificent 7", but the financial data that will begin to come out from the first quarter of 2025 may open the way for higher numbers in their share values.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by manthos
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
SPX OutlookSPX Yearly bullish. but it needs to pullback to the last year's VA in order for us to look for longs on SPX. Monthly bullish but needs pullback to last year's VA / POC. once that happens, we can start to look for buyers to step in. a deeper pullback all the way to the main POC on lay 2.2 Weekly here too we have a zone that matches the one on layout 2.2 and price came down quite decisively on friday so I might consider longs till we reach the key areas below. Plan my plan here will be to wait for price to pull to last week's VA on layout 4 before starting to look for sellers to step in. although friday's daily candle was quite nice for the bears and there may not be a pullback to layout 4 VA. so if I get a short entry on my trigger timeframe on SPX, I will look to enter as we know when price dumps, it dumps aggressively.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by Osiris992
SPX DrawdownS&P500 shows signs of fragility as equity breadth is not healthy and many hedge funds are starting to pile up shorts. Policy uncertainty ( Trump tariffs ) and unstable geopolitical developments will push stocks lower until the beginning of March. Although this will be a 15%-20% drawdown, I believe that the S&P500 will reach new highs in Q2, as the monetary policy will become more accommodative ( more rate cuts from the Fed priced in later this year), and more stocks from other sectors ex-tech will take the lead in a more reflationary, pro-growth macro environment.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Panos22
1
The Silent Killer That's Destroying Your Trading AccountLast week, someone dropped me a DM to talk about his "profitable" strategy. He was excited about making $4,894 in a single trade. I asked him about his account size, he proudly told me he turned $1,000 into $4,894 by risking his entire account on one trade. His account got wiped the next week. This story isn't unique. I was like him. I lost over $10,000 in my early trading days, not because my analysis was wrong, but because I had no idea how to manage risk. The Illusion of Control The majority of traders are unaware of this fact. Your analysis may be flawless. You can submit perfect entries. If you don't understand risk management, you might still lose everything. Think about it. How many times have you entered a trade without knowing your maximum loss? Do you increase your position size after a winning streak? Do you averaged down on losing positions? Do you remove your stop loss because you were confident about the trade? I remember my first funded account. I had a $200,000 account with The Funded Trader. My analysis was solid. I had back-tested my strategy extensively. But within two weeks, I had blown the account. Not because my trades were wrong, but because I had no system for managing risk. Why Most Traders Never See The Danger Coming The problem with poor risk management is that it works for a while, until it doesn't. It's similar to not wearing a seatbelt when driving. You feel fine and safe until you crash. Let me show you. Let’s say you start with a $1,000 account. You risk 20% per trade because you want to grow your account faster. The first few trades work out well. Your account grows to $1,500, a nice 50% gain in your account. You think you’re unbeatable. Your strategy is the holy grail. The next day, you lost three trades in a row. Something that happens a lot in trading. Your account is now down 50%. You need to make 100% just to break even. You take greater risks and incur even greater losses as a result of the pressure to profit from the market. This is what happened to me before. I turned $5,000 into $15,000 in two months by taking excessive risks. I felt like I had a hand of midas. Then I lost it all in two days. The Mathematics of Account Destruction Most traders don't understand that the size of your losses matters more than the size of your wins. Let's look at the brutal math: Lose 10% of your account? You need 11% to recover Lose 25%? You need 33% to recover Lose 50%? You need 100% to recover Lose 75%? You need 300% to recover This is why professional traders are obsessed with protecting their capital. They understand that preservation of capital is more important than making profits. I learned this lesson the hard way. In my early days, I would risk 10% of my account per trade. One bad day with three losing trades would put me down 30%. I needed a 43% gain just to get back to break even. It was mathematically impossible to succeed this way. The Hidden Danger of Overconfidence Do you believe that a trader being on a losing streak is the worst thing that could happen to them? No. It's when they are on a winning streak. We tend to become overconfident once we find small success. We start to believe that we're the big fish in the market. This is what happened to one of my mentees. He developed a profitable strategy. His strategy gave him a 60% win rate. He started with proper risk management, risking 1% per trade and was pretty profitable, netting him 8RRs in two weeks. After two weeks of consistent profits, he decided to increase his risk to 5% per trade since he was technically "profitable". Guess what happened next? He hit a normal losing streak. He lost four trades in a row. This normal losing streak turned from a 4% into a 20% drawdown. This causes him to abandon his strategy completely, thinking that his strategy is not profitable at all. The Professional Approach to Risk Here's what I learned about professional traders after blowing multiple accounts and finally becoming consistent. First, processional traders understand that trading is a game of probabilities. No trade is certain. Anything can happen in the market. Even an A+ setup with a 80% win rate will fail sometimes. This is why they never risk too much on any single trade. Second, they focus on risk more than reward. Before placing any trade, they know exactly how much they could lose. They keep their risk below 1% of their account size. The potential profit is what comes naturally to them. Managing risk is what keeps them in the game long term. Have you ever heard of any successful trader saying that they made it because they went all in on a certain trade? Almost all of them made it because of their risk management skills. Third, they understand that position sizing is everything. A great trade with poor position sizing is a bad trade. A normal trade with proper position sizing is a good trade, of course you have to trade according to your system. Building a Risk Management Framework After managing multiple six-figure funded accounts, here's what I've learned about proper risk management. Start with your maximum acceptable loss per trade. Most professional traders risk less than 1% of their account per trade. This means on a $100,000 account, your max loss should be less than $1,000 per trade. Next, calculate your position size. There are many calculators out there to calculate how many lots to trade. Lastly, consider your total exposure. If you have multiple trades open, you might be overtrading. If there is sudden news, all your trades could be stopped out at once. The Reality of Numbers Let me share something personal. When I first started trading a $10,000 account, I thought bigger risks meant bigger rewards. I still remember that feeling of excitement when I risked 10% on a trade and won. Making $1,000 in a single trade felt amazing. But then came a normal week of trading. Three losing trades - something that happens to even the best traders. That week changed everything. Trade 1: -$1,000 (Now at $9,000) Trade 2: -$900 (Down to $8,100) Trade 3: -$810 (Account crashed to $7,290) Just like that, I needed to make a 37% return just to get back to where I started. It felt impossible. The pressure led me to take even bigger risks, trying to recover my losses. You can guess how that ended. Now, let me show you how I trade the same $10,000 account today: Trade 1: -$100 (Now at $9,900) Trade 2: -$99 (Down to $9,801) Trade 3: -$98 (Account at $9,703) Same number of losing trades, completely different outcome. I only need a 3% gain to recover. More importantly, I'm still in the game, mentally strong, and able to trade my strategy without pressure. This isn't just about the numbers. It's about staying emotionally stable enough to execute your strategy properly. When you're down 30% of your account, you don't make rational decisions. But when you're down 3%, you can stick to your trading plan without panic. This simple shift in risk management is what allowed me to finally become consistent and eventually manage six-figure funded accounts. It's not exciting, it's not going to make you rich overnight, but it keeps you in the game long enough to actually become profitable. The Real Secret to Trading Success I'll let you know a secret about trading. It's not ALL about making money. I know you're learning to trade for the money. But money is just a byproduct of you following your system. Real trading is about surviving long enough to let your edge play out. In order to do so, you need to master risk management. I've always treated trading like a business. I will never risk 68% of my company on a single decision. Likewise, I will never risk 68% of my account on a single trade. You have to make calculated risks and manage the downside. Focus on these and profits will follow. Trading should be no different. Every trade should be properly sized so that a loss will not wipe your account. This allows you to stay in the game long enough for your edge to play out. Taking Action: Your First Steps If you're reading this and realizing you've been trading without proper risk management, don't panic. Here's what you need to do: First, reduce your position size immediately. Start risking 0.5% per trade maximum. Yes, this means smaller profits, but it also means you'll survive long enough to actually become profitable. Second, calculate your position sizes before the market opens. Don't leave this to emotion or gut feeling. Know exactly how much you'll trade based on your account size and stop loss distance. Third, track your maximum drawdown. This will show you whether your risk management is actually working or if you need to make adjustments. Remember: The market will always be there tomorrow, but only if you have capital left to trade with.
SP:SPX
by Keeleytwj