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SPX500 trade ideas

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603. Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,704.90 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 5,590.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,848.75 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:SPX500Long
by FXCM
S&P 500: Bull Run Reversal Underway S&P 500 increased by just 0.08% to close Friday's trade at 5,667 after a four-week decline. It is now down over 7% from February's peak of 6,147. The index has broken its bullish daily structure, signalling the start of a major correction. Critical support at 5,542 must hold to avoid further downside. If support holds, a temporary rebound could reach targets of 5,662, 5,737, 5,858, and 5,932. Failure to maintain 5,542 would lead to the second stage, targeting 5,151. Given current economic pressures, a four-stage correction resembling past corrections is plausible, potentially reaching as low as 4,564.
SP:SPXShort
by Rotuma
Pre-dump Stop Hunt Seems Likely HereMy previous forecast into the high of the rally was for a capitulation from the high, no major retracement in the drop and then once we broke the low - slam to 5500. This trade went well in the first stages. Top where it was expected. Sell off in the style expected. New low as expected - but there has yet to be a big follow through. This failed follow through (even although we are still sitting at the lows right now) makes me worry about the different trap variants of the break I expect. Here's the setup I am looking at. It's a bullish butterfly-like pattern off the high. I say butterfly-like because it doesn't perfectly fit the rules. C is a new high, for one. But I find this general M type of shape is useful for spotting lows or breaks. I tend to bracket all these things under a "butterfly". I know it's a misterm as per the books, but it serves the purpose I am using it for. Three main things can happen off a butterfly decision. One is the 1.61 breaks and we slam to 2.20. This was the OG forecast of 5500. This is the rarer of the outcomes but it happens so fast there's not time to deal with it - which is why I planned and positioned for this into the rally high. Second thing that can happen it a low. Butterfly can work. All can be well with the world. For a few reasons I don't think that's happening but it's a risk to be aware of. This could be a low. Finally, we have the dead cat and break pattern - the one that is the primary plan for now if we make the bounce. Here's an example of one of those. Notice how this trades under the support and then puts in a series of small spike out candles - then it makes the bull trap. Stalls a while and then the next break is the actionable one. Look at this little zone - we game this zone on both sides before the move. These look similar. If the break does not come now I think we'll see a bull trap atypical to the previous ones in that is moderately breaks the lower highs we've seen in all the previous rallies. Giving bears good reason to puke their positions and bulls good reason to think the low is in. Barcode there for a while and then setup the bigger trade. Ideally here I'd like to make a little money in the rally. Use this to bankroll my speculative OTM puts. Breaks lower are liable to cause an instant pivot to the plan for the run away break - but this bull trap move would be far more befitting of a pre-crash move I think. It really does feel a little too easy right now. Would be so many fewer bears if we made that little spike and stuck stubbornly at the high of it for a while. I've been hitting every rally in SPX since 6150. Done a lot of offloading of my positions yesterday and anything I am holding I have hedged with 580 calls. We may be very close, within months, of a real break - but we might have a big distraction rally to come first. No one has called me names for being a bear of late ... concerning. A good bounce would fix that.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
2
US 500 Index – A Deeper Rally or Retreat?The US 500 rallied 0.8% last week to close at 5666 and in doing so managed to lock in its first up week since early February. The bounce also brought some joy to those dip buyers that had to endure watching the index move into correction territory (10% drop from 6144 high) the previous week when it touched a 6-month low at 5505 on March 13th. Looking forward, it is probably still way too early to say that the selling and rotation away from US stocks into other global indices is over, although what we can say is that traders have taken a pause for reflection ahead of what could be a volatile finish to the end of the first quarter of 2025. Afterall, sentiment towards stocks in the US 500, especially the technology sector, remains fragile. In the week ahead traders are likely to be focused on the finer details of President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs, which are due to hit all countries, including long-time US allies, on April 2nd. The breadth of these tariffs and the extent of retaliatory measures, particularly from China and the EU, are likely to have knock on implications for US economic growth, inflation and consumer confidence (see below) , all of which are key factors that may impact future corporate earnings and the direction of the US 500 across the week. Economic Data: Monday: 1345 GMT US Preliminary PMI Surveys Tuesday: 1400 GMT US Consumer Confidence Friday: 1230 GMT US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) Solid Footing: The US 500 has opened the week on a more solid footing after a weekend report on Bloomberg suggested President Trump’s wave of tariffs are to be more targeted than the all-out assault he has touted on social media over the last few weeks. However, this is yet to be confirmed, and while not the worst-case scenario, it would still be an escalation of the current trade wars and may still result in retaliatory measures from those countries that are hit the hardest. It could also mean traders need to be on Trump social media watch again in the early part of this week. Technical Update: A Question of Fibonacci Retracements The US 500 index encountered an aggressive sell-off of 10.4% from the February 2025 all-time high at 6144 to its March low of 5505, from which attempts to bounce have materialised. This low was important from a technical perspective because the sell off tested a possible support level, marked by a Fibonacci retracement. In the case of the US 500 index, it was the 50% level of the April 2024 to February 2025 advance which stands at 5533 (see chart above). Using Fibonacci Retracements: Fibonacci retracements are useful as they can highlight potential support levels when any price weakness is seen and potential resistance levels when any price strength is seen. Closing breaks below retracement support or above retracement resistance can suggest the possibility of a more extended price move in the direction of the break. We recently published a report on how to use Fibonacci retracements in greater detail, so please take a look at our timeline to read this. Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels Offering Any Insight into Recent US 500 Index Moves? Having already rallied following tests of the 5533 retracement level, this has been confirmed as a support focus moving forward. While closing breaks are not a guarantee of further price declines, with much still dependent on future price trends and sentiment across the trading week, it may well be closes below this level that expose the potential for deeper declines. If this were to happen, downside potential may then shift towards retracement support at the 61.8% level, which stands at 5389 as you can see on the chart above. Fibonacci Resistance Focus: We can also run Fibonacci retracements on the February to March phase of weakness to provide potential resistance levels to focus on in case there is an extension of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the February to March decline stands at 5750 and this is a level that might need to be monitored. If this 5750 level were to be broken on a closing basis, it may be possible to see a more extended phase of price strength which could could skew the focus for traders towards resistance at 5825, which is the higher 50% retracement level, may be even 5900, which is the 61.8% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
MARKET ALERT: Sound the AlarmOver the past few years as price has reached major potential turning points in the market I have sounded the alarm that LONG SIDE RISK has risen and to be on HIGH ALERT for a potential downturn. Of course as we have seen this Bull Market has had significant legs and has continued to grind higher. What now? I told you in September that it did not matter who was elected that the Market would turn weak...and it did We have been going essentially sideways since November I also said that around Jan 15th the market would turn lower...and it has I also said that lower move would take us down to the 5600-5700 region..and it did Now I am telling you that we are setting up for what appears to be ONE FINAL PUSH HIGHER Where does that move take us? Somewhere near 6500 What happens after that? You can expect a SWIFT CRASH LIKE move back to almost exactly where we are now but probably around 5400 And its at THAT point that ALL CARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE You should expect a retracement back up from that 5400 region If that retracement is CLEARLY CORRECTIVE in nature then you can expect a move down to 5000 and if the market cant hold that region then its: GAME OVER Can I be wrong? Absolutely...and for the sake of the people I love, this country that I call home and my brotherhood of fellow humans around the world I HONESTLY HOPE I AM Because if I'm not wrong then whats coming over the next decade will be potentially MUCH WORSE THAN A RECESSION PREPARE YOURSELF
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024. Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again). Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t. Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team. Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples: 1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan. 2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves. 3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround. 4. Psychological and Financial Consequences Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression. 5. Long-Term Sustainability Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability. In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling. -- Best 'squid' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing. I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below. That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward. I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks. Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
FX:SPX500Long
by stromm
Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders, SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted. Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week. So let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500: The Correction Is Not Over Yet – Targets Around 5000At the moment, the S&P 500 is holding relatively stable, but I believe the current decline is just part of a larger correction following decades of growth. Right now, the index is retracing to the 50% pullback area (marked on the chart), which aligns with a typical retest before a potential continuation of the downward move. In this zone, a manipulation is likely, after which the decline may resume. An additional confirmation of this scenario is the unfilled gap below, which remains uncovered. Historically, the market tends to close such gaps. Moreover, there are untested price levels lower on the chart, suggesting a high probability of further downside movement, with targets around 5000 points. I will keep monitoring the situation and update my outlook as new data emerges.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by MonetarioMan
US500 Long Setup – 15M | NYC Reversal from Demand Bias: Bullish Trade Setup Overview: After a deep selloff and subsequent accumulation pattern, US500 printed a clean bullish reaction from the lower demand zone during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation to the upside. Key Confluences: 🔹 Accumulation + Manipulation Phase Complete The chart shows classic Wyckoff accumulation followed by manipulation below short-term lows, leading into an aggressive NY open rally—suggesting institutional involvement. 🔹 Entry From Demand + FVG Reclaim Price tagged the 5676.5 level, which aligns with the edge of a refined 15M FVG and an H1 demand zone. Strong rejection and follow-through confirms buyer strength. 🔹 Clean Break of Supply Structure Price has pierced through a previous short-term supply zone, turning it into potential support. This is a signal that bulls are reclaiming control. Bias: Bullish Entry: 5676.5 Stop Loss: 5660.4 Take Profits: TP1: 5693.6 TP2: 5720.0 TP3: 5781.6
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by tamrobert20
Nikkei, S&P500, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Short: Educational UpdateThis is really an extra video that I made because I see some educational value. I use Nikkei 225 to show repeating of patterns and the fractal nature of the market, S&P and Nasdaq to demonstrate the usage of Fibonacci levels and study of historical support and resistance, and finally Hang Seng to discuss on placing stop losses and how noise in lower time frames may require us to ignore certain "unclean" waves. Overall, I still put this idea as a short because all the indices used are still short ideas in my opinion. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
I spy an Evening Star Doji on SPXso alot is going on. when we gapped up and ran nonstop 3/25-3/26, i decided to look for reversal signals. tues was a tight range. it formed a doji; which was suspect. the move below the open print today was the second. and now i see we are up on a tweet and a prayer. this 3 candlestick pattern confirms that. however... the higher timeframes are in a wide range. so, if we reverse the bearish candlestick >5720 i believe we can retrace a bit... maybe revisit the sell fell off area. ***to invalidate the sell trigger, we need to bet above the doji. ***if we do keep rocking and rolling... note this area. it is an unfilled gap as of now. if it gaps down, wait to see how 1st 15-30mins react. looks like ES-emini gapped down a bit. that may be it, but this is an A+ set up for a trip back to take out short term lows at least. tootles! For more on the pattern... I love the breakdown/visual provided here: alchemymarkets.com
SP:SPXShort
by mommymiles
US100 – Elliott Wave Count & Expanding Flat ScenarioThis chart reflects my interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle, focusing on the rule of alternation. I've mapped a running flat in wave (II) and an expanding flat in wave (IV), which feels valid in this structure. Currently, I'm tracking the final stages of wave 5 in the weekly count – potentially setting up for a daily leg higher into wave (V). Key levels to watch: Weekly vector body: 5,928 Daily vector body: 6,110 Final target zone: around 6,200+ Human behavior doesn’t change — the cycle will always repeat. The carry trade could unwind at point X or at the end of daily wave 5. Let’s see how it plays out. This is not financial advice – purely my perspective for learning and discussion.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by The_Market_Architect
US100 – Elliott Wave Count & Expanding Flat ScenarioThis chart reflects my interpretation of the Elliott Wave principle, focusing on the rule of alternation. I've mapped a running flat in wave (II) and an expanding flat in wave (IV), which feels valid in this structure. Currently, I'm tracking the final stages of wave 5 in the weekly count – potentially setting up for a daily leg higher into wave (V). Key levels to watch: Weekly vector body: 5,928 Daily vector body: 6,110 Final target zone: around 6,200+ Human behavior doesn’t change — the cycle will always repeat. The carry trade could unwind at point X or at the end of daily wave 5. Let’s see how it plays out. This is not financial advice – purely my perspective for learning and discussion. I Salute You -The Market Architect-
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by The_Market_Architect