US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Do not open a position without TP and SL.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
SPX500 trade ideas
S&P500 Yesterday's crash has confirmed +9.20% rebound.The S&P500 index (SPX) rebounded strongly back to its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following yesterday's flash crash and recovered most than 50% of last week's Highs. The rebound took place exactly on the former Lower Highs trend-line of December's correction.
This correction was the technical Bearish Leg of the post August 05 2024 Channel Up and the rebound on it indicates that the market has turned it from Resistance to Support. Similar Lower Highs trend-lines were formed during the last two major corrections (July and April 2024) and the common feature on all (including the current one) is that a 4H Golden Cross was formed immediately after the break-out.
What followed after the Golden Cross was one last pull-back before a +9.20% rise. Yesterday's crash is most likely that pull-back. As a result, we should now be expecting a new +9.20% rise on the medium-term, with our Target being 6450.
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SPX Pullback Expected To Hold in 3, 7 Or 11 SwingsShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 ( SPX) suggests that rally to new all time high on 12.16.2024 at $6099.97 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed complete at $5773.20 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave ((4)) unfolded as Elliott wave double three structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave (W) ended in lesser degree 3 swings at $5832.30. Wave (X) bounce ended in 3 swings at $6049.75 high. Then wave (Y) lower ended at $5773.20 low with another lesser degree 3 swings thus completed wave ((4)) pullback.
The Index has turned higher in wave ((5)) and managed to make a new high above previous wave ((3)) high of $6099.97 confirming the next extension higher. Up from wave ((4)), the rally took place as an impulse sequence where wave ((i)) ended at $5871.92 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at $5805.42 low. Index nested higher in wave ((iii)) & ended at $5964.69 high. Then wave ((iv)) pullback ended at $5930.72 low. Above from there, wave ((v)) ended with extension at $6128.18 high & completed wave 1. Down from there, the index is doing a pullback in wave 2 against 1.13.2025 low. Therefore, pullback should hold in 3, 7 or 11 swings looking for more upside.
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?S&P500 is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the overlap support.
Pivot: 6,040.89
1st Support: 5,930.68
1st Resistance: 6,100.41
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.28.2024🔮
📅 Tue Jan 28
⏰ 10:00am
📊 CB Consumer Confidence: 105.9 (prev: 104.7)
💡 Global Events:
🚩 China PMI: Key manufacturing data impacting global growth.
🍵 U.K. Business Report: Updates on investments and pensions.
📊 Earnings: GM and LMT pre-market results.
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Breakout to the EEZ, make a higher push, and round out the top.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a slight recovery but still drop and chop back down into the lower range.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
sp 500 fib analysissp 500 fib analysis
Treasury bills are a secure, short-term investment, offering you returns after a relatively short commitment of funds. Treasury bill rates in Kenya are attractive, providing an excellent investment opportunity that is readily available, as they are auctioned each week.
Treasury bills are sold at a discount. This means that investors choose the amount that they will receive when the bill matures, or the face value of the bill, and pay less than that amount when purchasing it.
US500 LONG POSITIONI have been opening long positions in the S&P500, some of which have resulted in losses, as you can see in the analysis I have uploaded. However, I am re-entering some of them, which is why it is currently in the positive. In this trade, I am looking for purchases to follow the structure.
A good trader can lose many times, and a few well-managed gains cover all the losses and generate high profits.
SPX week of Jan 27th 2025
The upcoming week could be a bit wild based on the recent gaps and the FOMC meeting. There are a few ranges from recent gaps up that are prime candidates to be filled on a retracement. Especially considering that the last time the FOMC spoke about rates, the index dropped over 3% in a single day. That move is pictured below, and it spans from the current level of 6100 to the top of the lowest gap at 5890. Compounding this is that the highest level of negative gamma exposure sitting directly below the highest gap. Since volatility could pick up if we breach that negative exposure level and there are 2 large gaps below we could see a significant move down. The flip side of this is earnings of course - some of the biggest players are expected to beat estimates this week. That combined with the multiple levels of high gamma exposure sitting above the current level might keep the index rising all week towards the 6200 level. A very inexpensive way to play both sides would be far out of the money inexpensive debit spreads expiring Friday 1/31 centered around the strikes of 6200 to the upside and 5980 or even 5900 to the downside. Of course I am literally brand new at trying to do this kind of analysis so I quite possibly am getting all of this wrong (although I feel like I am getting the jargon down pretty well ;)
(Fixed Chart) $SPX Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsI made a mistake in the first SPY chart this is the actual trading range for today 5935 to 6080 and as of right now we’re sitting right at the 50 day moving which is a critical level underneath that we do have that downward facing 1hr 200MA and the 30min 200 for support on the day
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day TradersOur guys we drop down into the gap that has the 50 day average the one hour 200MA and the 30 minute 200MA
We still have an island gap underneath us around 5880 to fill, but this momentum might hold us around here on the day
China threatens US AI dominanceUS stock index futures have tumbled overnight. Investors rushed to bail out of chipmakers and tech-related equities in reaction to China’s threat to US dominance over the development of generative AI. A relatively small Chinese company called DeepSeek has produced a powerful open-source artificial intelligence model at a fraction of the cost, yet with capabilities equal or better than, many US versions such as ChatGPT. The DeepSeek version is already the top-rated free application on Apple's US App. The threat has led to a sudden, and painful, reconsideration of tech stock valuations along with their plans for future capital expenditures. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 was down close to 4% in early trade, with thumping losses for chipmakers. NVIDIA, Super Micro Computer and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company were all around 10% lower in morning trade. ‘Magnificent Seven’ constituents Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla were all 5-6% weaker. The final ‘Mag 7’ member, Apple, was little-changed. But it has fallen 15% from its all-time high from Christmas, and testing support around $220. Given this year’s sell-off, investors may decide to sit on their hands for now, at least until they can digest Apple’s earnings which are released after Thursday’s close. On Wednesday there are fourth quarter updates from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Tesla. It’s worth considering that the ‘Mag 7’ members account for 34% of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500, so there’s a lot riding on this quarter given current high valuations and the uncertainty that comes with a Trump presidency. Mr Trump has yet to impose tariffs despite threats to Canada, Mexico and China. He successfully threatened Colombia to take two plane-loads of deportees or face tariffs of 25%, rising to 50% next week. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged after its meeting on Wednesday. In the meantime, bond prices are picking up again. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 11 basis points to 4.50% this morning-its lowest level in over a month. This suggests that investors are putting the proceeds of dumped stocks straight into the bond market for now. It could also imply that equities could have more downside, given opportunists don’t appear to be in any rush to buy at cheaper levels.
US500 - Short-Term Pain!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been in a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the blue channel.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong demand and structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of structure and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
If the blue intersection is broken downward, a deeper correction towards the green intersection would be expected.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
S&P500 - BUY My over all analysis is bullish for sp500. On a technical basis, it came out of down trend , & is near my 50% fib Retracement. The overall trend of sp500 has been bullish so I’m seeing sp500 creating all time highs. Fundamental news will confirm entry’s for buys.
Earnings Season Playbook: What Traders Should Know to Stay Ahead🏈 It’s Earnings Season — Game On
Earnings season is the market’s quarterly equivalent of the Super Bowl (with just as much action) or the Oscars (minus the red carpet but with just as much drama). Every three months or so (every quarter), companies parade their financial performances, guiding traders and investors through a rollercoaster of beats, misses, and that classic "in line with expectations" snooze-fest.
It’s exciting, nerve-wracking, and, if played right, potentially profitable. So, how do you navigate this high-stakes quarterly event? With a solid playbook and a lot less stress than you might think.
🌀 Know When Things Kick Off
Timing is everything. Earnings reports trickle in on a quarterly basis and are usually released after the regular trading session (for the most part) or before the opening bell (for the banks, mostly).
Having a scheduled earnings calendar means that traders have enough time to digest the numbers — or panic — before the next batch of updates. So make sure you keep an eye on the earnings calendar — you don’t want to be caught holding ill-fated shares if Tesla TSLA announces its profit margins have shrunk because of that quirky Cybertruck, right? Preparation here means knowing who’s reporting, when, and what the expectations are.
📝 Read Between the (Income Statement) Lines
Earnings reports are more than just numbers. Of course, revenue and EPS (earnings per share) are the headliners, but the juicy details often lurk in the fine print. Look out for annualized revenue growth (or shrinkage), profit margins, and forward-looking guidance.
If a company beats earnings but lowers its full-year forecast, it’s like winning the lottery but learning half your prize is in Monopoly money. Market-fluent traders dig deep and connect the dots rather than reacting to headlines.
💡 Forward-Looking Projections: The Market’s Guiding Light
Forward projections or guidance is among the most powerful tools companies use to set the tone. A quarterly performance is old news by the time it’s reported; traders want to know what’s next.
Positive guidance can send stocks soaring, while cautious language can sink even the strongest performers. For example, if a tech company beats earnings but announces reduced hiring or slower revenue growth projections, brace for turbulence. Think of guidance as the “what’s next” teaser for a Netflix NFLX series you can’t stop binging.
Btw, Netflix really outworked everyone in the last quarter.
☎️ Earnings Calls: Raw Market Reactions
Earnings calls are where the magic — or chaos — happens. CEOs and CFOs are tasked with selling their story to analysts and investors, balancing optimism with realism. Listeners keep an ear out for key phrases like … you know it … “AI,” “generative AI” and “AI data centers”.
It’s also where you’ll catch nuggets about new projects, market conditions, and management’s confidence—or lack thereof. Pro tip: Look for a transcript if the financial jargon on live calls makes you feel like you need subtitles.
🎡 The Volatility Playground: Trading Earnings Gaps
Earnings season is a volatility wonderland. Stocks can gap up or down significantly in reaction to results, creating opportunities for savvy traders. Trading these gaps requires a blend of technical analysis and fast decision-making.
Did the stock gap down despite a solid earnings beat? That might be a buy-the-dip moment. Conversely, a massive gap up can shout overbought. The trick is understanding the context of the move — is it justified, or is it speculative?
🐏 Avoid the Herd Mentality (or at Least Try to)
Earnings season brings out the FOMO. Traders see a stock soaring post-earnings and rush in, only to get burned when the euphoria fizzles. It’s tempting to follow the herd, but disciplined traders stay cautious.
Always ask: is this stock moving on fundamentals, or is it riding a hype wave? If it’s the latter, step back and let the dust settle — the market loves to overcorrect.
🖼️ Sector Trends: The Bigger Picture Matters
Earnings season isn’t just about individual stocks; it’s a pulse check on entire sectors. If a major bank reports a sharp jump in profits, it’s a bullish sign for the financial sector (yes, we’re talking about JPMorgan’s JPM latest quarterly update ).
Similarly, a blockbuster quarter from a tech titan might lift the entire tech space. By keeping an eye on sector trends, traders can spot opportunities and avoid pitfalls. Think of it as reading the room before making your move.
🎮 Play the Long Game
Earnings season isn’t just for day traders. Long-term investors can use it to reassess their positions and look for entry points. If a company misses earnings due to short-term challenges but maintains strong fundamentals, it might be a buying opportunity.
On the flip side, a stock riding high on hype but lacking substance could be a signal to exit. Patience pays off, especially when everyone else is chasing the next shiny object.
✍️ Wrapping It Up: Stay Sharp, Stay Informed
Earnings season is as unpredictable as the plot twists in Succession. But with the right preparation and mindset, it’s also a goldmine of opportunities. Do your homework, keep your emotions in check, and don’t be afraid to sit out if the setup doesn’t feel right.
So grab your coffee (or tea, no judgment), fire up your TradingView account, and get ready for the financial fireworks.
SPX WEEKLY 27 JAN 2025Welcome to SPX Weekly. I have clearly explained the levels here. If you have any questions, please leave a comment below.
NOTE: ALWAYS TRADE WITH SL
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to the area of 50% Fibo lvl (5972).Colleagues, I believe that price is completing wave “1” and I believe that a correction in wave “2” is inevitable.
I expect the price to reach the area of 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels (5972.9). I believe that a small update of the maximum of wave “1” is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Red Alert! Major Bearish Signal for U.S. Stocks. Attention – this is a Red Alert! This is a Red alert!
The main three U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) have recorded a major bearish momentum divergence.
In December 2024 all three indices recorded new all-time highs. Last week for several days only SPX reached a new all-time high. This phenomenon occurred in 2007 just prior to the last major U.S. stock bear market.
As of this writing on Sunday 01/26/25 at 8:30 PM – PT the S&P 500 – E- Mini futures are down almost .90% it appears the SPX could be trading down more than 1% on 01/27/25.
There could be a decline greater than 10% coming soon. This could be the best time to sell or short U.S. stocks in 2025.
It looks like the bear is back!
This is a Red Alert!
Bullish bounce?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot and c ould bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,981.20
1st Support: 5,822.54
1st Resistance: 6,174.50
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX500 looks to uptrend on hour chart and will make its way headSPX500 looks to uptrend on hour chart and will make its way heading to daily resistant level.
Hello mates, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is always setting a Stop Loss when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. Our 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
Nightly SPX/SPX/SPY Predictions for 1.27.2024🔮
📅 Mon Jan 27
No major U.S. data
🌍 Global Watch: ECB signals 2025 rate cuts (25–50 bps expected).
📅 Tue Jan 28
⏰ 10:00am ET
📊 CB Consumer Confidence: 105.9 (prev: 104.7)
🌍 Global Watch: Eurozone inflation rises to 2.4% (stagflation risks).
📅 Wed Jan 29
⏰ 2:00pm ET
📊 Federal Funds Rate: 4.50% (prev: 4.50%)
📜 FOMC Statement
⏰ 2:30pm ET
🎙️ FOMC Press Conference
🌍 Global Watch: ECB downgrades 2025 GDP to 1.1% (Germany recession).
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am ET
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌍 Global Watch: ECB rate decision (25–50 bps cut expected).
📅 Fri Jan 31
⏰ 8:30am ET
📊 Core PCE Price Index m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.1%)
📊 Employment Cost Index q/q: 0.9% (prev: 0.8%)
🌍 Global Watch: Eurozone Q4 GDP forecast: 0.3–0.4% (spillover risk).
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then dropping back down into the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Hard to move up higher, so will slowly chop down to the Cushion levels.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a slight recovery but still drop and chop back down into the lower range.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX: yep, ATH againThe inauguration of the new-old US President was in the spotlight of markets during the previous week. As there were no changes with respect to the pre-election promises, the markets continued to react positively for the rest of the week, bringing the S&P 500 to a new historically highest level. The level of 6.122 is a new historical point. Friday's trading session brought some profit-taking moments, where the index ended the week at the level of 6.101. The short reversal was mostly driven by tech companies, where Nvidia slipped by 3% to the downside. Tesla followed by 1% dip.
Regardless of positive sentiment in an after-inauguration period, the fear of tariffs still holds on the market. Investors do not perceive such a move, especially with China, in a fear that increased import prices might bring back inflation in the US. Depending on the level of tariffs, this further might imply that the Fed could be in position to hold interest rates at current levels for a longer period of time, which in the end, might impact the US growth for this year. This is why mentioning tariffs in public by the new US administration will always imply some contraction of markets in the coming period, which means increased volatility.
Another moment which is important is the US President's address at the business forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he noted that he will request a drop in interest rates, immediately. It is unclear how Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members will perceive such rhetoric, and intrusion of the US President into US monetary policy. Certainly, this will be one of the questions which will be addressed in an after-the meeting speech of the Fed Chair Powell, in the week ahead.
Overall, the week ahead will bring PCE data, Fed's interest rate decision, overview of macroeconomic data, and address of Fed Chair Powell. At the same time, big tech earnings are expected to be posted, so this could be a promise of another challenging and volatile week on financial markets.
Not just the stocks crashing.. everythingSince i've been looking at the monthly timeframe it's been difficult to pinpoint the crash but i'm 99% confident NFP is going to do the trick. this should be interesting
