S&P500 Short: Update on wave counts, Completion of WXYThis is my 3rd attempt to call the correction peak for S&P500 or Nasdaq (I use them interchangeably). From the previous short idea using Nasdaq, I mentioned that the reason for the invalidation of the previous idea is due to the last wave 5 of C of Y to extend into a 5-wave structure.
Over here, the short position will be stopped out if a new high above wave Y is hit. I offered 2 conservative targets in this short idea and suggests that one can reduce position and shift stop loss when the first conservative target is reached. I also mention that if this WXY wave structure is the correct call, then the big picture is really that S&P500 will crash below 4800.
Good luck!
SPX500 trade ideas
Overnight Futures Pop 2.8% on Surprise Tariff TruceYou either woke up to a panicโฆ or to a profit.
This morning, markets are ripping higher - not because of earnings, not because of data - but because two superpowers shook hands over fondue in Switzerland.
If you're feeling blindsided, you probably chased last weekโs noise.
If you're feeling calm, youโre probably following the AntiVestor way.
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SPX Market Briefing
The headlines are loud. So letโs talk facts.
Over the weekend, the United States and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback:
US duties drop from 145% to 30%
China drops theirs from 125% to 10%
Both sides now pretending to like each other until mid-August
Markets reacted the only way they know how: with euphoria.
SPX futures are up 2.8%. Nasdaq is flying. The Dow surged more than 900 points premarket.
Hereโs what we did:
Nothing reckless. Nothing oversized. Nothing emotional.
The system turned bearish late last week, and we followed it - small, tactical, mechanical. Not a bet. Just a position.
And hereโs the kicker:
I still held a few bullish positions from the prior bias. They were so far out-of-the-money, I didnโt even bother closing them.
Guess what?
Theyโre in profit - and my net exposure is green despite the initial bear swing going underwater.
So while the news makes others overreact, we get to do what we always do:
Let the market come to us.
The real money isnโt made chasing this 2.8% pop.
Itโs made waiting for the next confirmed setup.
...and a little good luck always helps ;)
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Expert Insights:
Mistake: Jumping into emotional gap openings
AntiVestor Fix: Let others panic. Let your system speak.
Gap moves on news tend to retrace or fade - and even if they don't, entering late is a coin toss. Smart traders wait. Pros wait. We wait.
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Rumour Has Itโฆ
Whispers from the Swiss hotel bar claim the entire US-China agreement was sparked when both delegates reached for the same dessert spoon. One espresso and a bottle of Pinot later, tariffs were slashed and SPX gapped 2.8%.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact
According to CBOE data, Monday gap-ups following geopolitical โresolutionsโ average a +2.2% openโฆ but only hold those gains 41% of the time by Fridayโs close. Which means chasing the open? Not your best trade. Waiting for follow-through? Thatโs the edge.
S&P INTRADAY uptrend continuationMarket and Geopolitical Update
USโUK Trade Deal: Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, calling it the first of his promised deals. Details will be released by the White House.
Chipmakers Rise: The US plans to roll back some Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, boosting chip stocks. New rules are in development to better control foreign chip use.
Markets Rally: US stock futures climbed, Bitcoin neared $100,000, and the dollar strengthened slightly after the Fed signaled no rush to cut rates.
Corporate Struggles: Despite market optimism, companies continue to feel tariff pressure. Toyota expects a $1.3 billion hit, while Maersk downgraded its transport outlook.
IndiaโPakistan Tensions: Pakistan reported shooting down 12 Indian drones, escalating long-standing tensions. Indiaโs Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%, and Pakistanโs KSE-30 fell 7%.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5730
Resistance Level 2: 5780
Resistance Level 3: 5874
Support Level 1: 5580
Support Level 2: 5510
Support Level 3: 5440
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Moment of Truth for the S&P and Overall MarketsSeeing quite a significant Head and Shoulders pattern form now.
We've had a strong rally back up after the plunge.
Now we are testing the 50d SMA.
If we can't hold above this, things could get really bad.
If this Head and Shoulders sees follow through to the downside, we could be seeing a very significant bear market over the next year or so.
Critical point here!!!
SPX500USD Chart Breakdown Price is currently approaching the 5,708 ๐ผ resistance zone after a strong bullish rally from the 5,320 ๐ฝ support level. The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supported by the upward-sloping 50-period SMA.
Support at: 5,590 ๐ฝ, 5,450 ๐ฝ, 5,320 ๐ฝ
Resistance at: 5,708 ๐ผ, 5,840 ๐ผ
Bias:
๐ผ Bullish: If price breaks and holds above 5,708 ๐ผ, we could see continuation toward 5,840. Holding above the 50 SMA strengthens the bullish outlook.
๐ฝ Bearish: A rejection from 5,708 ๐ผ could send price back down toward 5,590, with further weakness exposing 5,450 ๐ฝ.
๐ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Tag โn Turn โ Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias
You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system?
That was yesterday.
The Tag โn Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. Weโre back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing.
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SPX Market View
Letโs unpack the sequence.
Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point โ system clean, profits booked.
But I wasnโt diving into the next setup just yet.
Why?
Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout โ the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited.
Then came the V-shaped reversal โ clear as day within 2 hours.
Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag โn Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation.
Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart.
Todayโs key levels:
5620 = GEX flip zone
Also where we bounced up post-FOMC
5680 = resistance zone โ could mark todayโs top
Weโre back in the pre-FOMC chop zone.
The plan:
Bearish until price tells us otherwise
Hedge levels marked
No chase
Wait for price to hit our zone
Let the system print
Expert Insights:
Jumping the gun on reversals โ wait for structure, not assumptions.
Chasing breakouts too early โ pinch points often fake before they break.
Skipping levels โ 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret.
Overmanaging overnight trades โ exits were planned. Trust the system.
Forcing direction changes โ confirmation > prediction. The system knows.
Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction.
Rumour Has Itโฆ
Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
The term โV-shaped reversalโ originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading โ a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
SPX at a Tipping Point Rising Wedge Meets 200 EMAThe SPX is currently trading within a rising wedge a bearish pattern that typically signals exhaustion of upward momentum. Price has now stalled right at the 200 EMA, a key dynamic resistance level, and today's close came just beneath it.
If this rising wedge breaks to the downside especially with a confirmed rejection from the 200 EMA we could see accelerated selling. The next key support level to watch is $5,438.43. A breakdown from here would likely test that zone quickly.
This setup follows our earlier call from March 27, where we highlighted the $4,790 area as a bottom nearly nailed to the point. From that low, SPX rallied, but now the structure is showing signs of strain.
Weโre at a decision point: hold the 200 EMA and potentially break higher or confirm the wedge breakdown and begin a new leg down.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 2, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index demonstrated a steady to higher price movement, achieving a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5550 and successfully surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 5672. This trajectory establishes the foundation for sustained upward momentum as it approaches the Mean Resistance level of 5778 and sets sights on reaching the next Outer Index Rally target marked at 5945. However, it is essential to acknowledge the substantial risk of a sharp retracement from the current price level to the Mean Support level of 5601, with the potential for further decline to the Mean Support level of 5525.
April 25 crypto and stock market results๐ April portfolio recap: $2,293 in profit despite market decline
Each month, I publish performance reports to stay accountable and track the real results of my trading strategies across both stock and crypto markets.
In this post, Iโll break down my April 2025 performance โ where my portfolio grew, even as the broader market declined.
๐๏ธ Stock market results: $1,144 profit
Despite a red month for the broader market, my equity portfolio performed well:
โข Monthly return: just above 1%
โข S&P 500 performance: -44 basis points (โ0.44%)
Outperforming the S&P 500 in a down month is never easy, but my holdings managed to stay in the green.
๐ช Crypto portfolio: $1,139 recovery
My crypto allocation also showed strength in April, largely thanks to my liquidity pool strategy, which is finally beginning to yield real results.
โข Monthly crypto return: just over 6%
โข By comparison, simply holding BTC would have yielded around 14%
While my strategy didnโt beat Bitcoin in raw percentage terms, it offered recovery after previous drawdowns.
๐ Portfolio Overview
โข Cumulative profit: $10,000+
โข Average portfolio return since inception: ~11.5%
I began investing in 2020, and have steadily built a portfolio that balances growth with risk control. My approach involves both active management (via options and selective equities) and passive yield strategies in DeFi.
๐ Whatโs Next?
Iโll continue to post live trade updates, monthly recaps, and strategy breakdowns. If youโre interested in real portfolio transparency and real-time insights โ follow along.
US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown๐ US500 Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block ๐งฑ โ a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium ๐ฐ and appears to be overextended ๐.
โ ๏ธ From a risk management standpoint, Iโd advise extreme caution โ the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach weekโs end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure.
๐ A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure.
๐ This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
"US500/SPX500" Index Market Money Heist Plan (Day / Swing Trade)๐Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!๐
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, ๐ค๐ฐโ๏ธ
Based on ๐ฅThief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis๐ฅ, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Pink MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. ๐๐ธ"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!๐ช๐๐
Entry ๐ : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries.
Stop Loss ๐:
๐Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 1D timeframe (5500) Day/Swing trade basis.
๐SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target ๐ฏ: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target
๐ฐ๐ต๐ธ"US500/SPX500" Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.๐๐๐
๐ฐ๐๏ธGet & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check ๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๏ธTrading Alert : News Releases and Position Management ๐ฐ ๐๏ธ ๐ซ๐
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
๐Supporting our robbery plan ๐ฅHit the Boost Button๐ฅ will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money ๐ฐ๐ต. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.๐๐ช๐คโค๏ธ๐๐
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned ๐ค๐ฑโ๐ค๐ค๐คฉ
Little Rest For SPXI think the SPX structure is more prone to bearishness. There is a structure that will probably move quickly in one direction. I don't think a good structure has been formed for a bottom. And the rise does not seem very strong. For this reason, I expect an increase after the first fall.
Since this situation will probably reflect on crypto, my bearish contracts are still in place. But I am thinking of buying a bullish contract until the FOMC time.
S&P500 โ Bullish Setup Into Major Top!We expect a strong rally on the S&P 500 starting next week. Based on our timing models and wave structure, we believe a major top is likely to be formed on one of the following key dates:
๐
April 22nd, April 24th, or April 29th, 2025
๐น Rally Targets:
โข First Target: $5,630
โข Second Target: $5,787
โข Third Target: $6,000 (upper range projection)
This move is part of a final leg up before we anticipate a major reversal and strong downward move, potentially marking a significant turning point for the broader market.
๐ง We are currently positioned to capture this upside and will reassess risk closely as we approach the above-mentioned dates. Precision matters โ and so does timing.
US Markets on the Edge โ Heavy Bloodshed Ahead!The charts are screaming caution!
SPX, Nasdaq, and major tech stocks are showing clear signs of exhaustion. We could be entering a heavy correction phase.
This is not the time to be greedy โ protect your capital, manage risk, and tighten those stop losses.
Stay alert. Stay smart.
Massive moves are coming, and not everyone will survive them.
S&P 500 Tests Key Zone Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has reached the 5,700โ5,800 zone after a nearly 18% rally in just half a month. This zone could determine whether the rally marks the end of the bearish trend or if more pain lies ahead for the stock market.
The 200-day simple moving average, several previous horizontal support levels, and the most recent top all converge in this area. The upward move has been driven by correction dynamics, optimism around potential trade deals, signs of de-escalation with China, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
This week, the FOMC may either temper those optimistic rate cut expectations or hint at a more dovish tone. In either case, some profit-taking may occur ahead of the meeting, and the 5,700โ5,800 zone is a strong candidate for that to happen.
S&P500 1st 4H Golden Cross since Jan could be a TRAP!S&P500 (SPX) completed yearly today its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since January 23. That formation issued an immediate pull-back but technically it's not very similar to the today's as that was formed after an All Time High (ATH) while now we are on the recovery phase after March's massive Trade War fueled correction.
The 4H Golden Cross however that looks more similar to the current is the one before January's, the August 21 2024. That was formed after a substantial market pull-back, though again not as strong as March's. Still, the 1D RSI patterns are also more similar and that again should keep us on high alert as 2 weeks later the index pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous High Resistance.
As a result, if we see the price now turning sideways for a week or so, we will give higher probabilities for a short-term pull-back, maybe not as low as the 0.5 Fib but at least to the 5450 region, before the market takes off to 6000.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
$SPX / $SP500 โ China Deal or Global Meltdown? The Risk/Reward ๐ The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX / VANTAGE:SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: โ
Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: โ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
๐ Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility ( TVC:VIX ) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.