Typical ABC on SPY generally means a rally back upWe should see some short term relief. This is a place to buy oversold stocks after todays gap down.
SPX500 trade ideas
Great Depression SituationAn idea suggesting that current actions by trump have induced a massive sell off situation
With losses coming in comparable to that of the 1920 depression
I think we are very over extended a pull back is necessary
Yearly chart
4900 best future supportI don't think tariffs will effect USA economy negatively and exaggeration about them in few weeks will fade. 4900 to 4930 will be good support.
S&P INTRADAY futures point to lower open Global stocks sold off sharply on Monday as investors rushed into safe-haven assets, driven by growing concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The market reaction is forcing Wall Street analysts to dial back their bullish outlook on U.S. equities.
Despite the market turmoil, Trump and his team downplayed fears of inflation and recession, remaining confident that strong economic growth lies ahead.
In response, China’s policymakers met over the weekend to discuss potential steps to support the economy, including speeding up planned stimulus measures, according to sources.
Meanwhile, traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with some even betting on an emergency rate cut before the Fed’s next scheduled meeting, as recession fears mount.
Oil prices dropped for a third day, with Saudi Arabia cutting the price of its main crude grade by the most in over two years, adding to the bearish sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5273
Resistance Level 2: 5379
Resistance Level 3: 5510
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
spx 5100 targetAfter warning of 200 pnts drop yesterday for monday, the futures opened 200 pnts lower at 4800
But expect to see a green bar during the day or tomorrow with 5100 as target to fill some gap and many short sellers taking profit. 4800 is at 2022 peak so technically a strong support
5100 hundred would be a resistance for further downside
If it goes over 5100 and stays there, the trendline break rule fails. Then I will have to review my further downside targets and start being medium term neutral/bullish from bearish and consider 5300 as next target and 4800 as target for double bottom for being bullish
Modified Count to Reflect Recent DeclineIn truth, the levels we're seeing this morning when the SPX cash market opens, I was not anticipating seeing till the 3rd quarter of this year. Mid last week, we had positive MACD divergences on the intraday charts and was setting up to be almost a textbook bottom.
Nonetheless, the SPX cash market will not hold the must hold zone when it opens this morning. This means we will get a retracement higher in a minor wave B that should last some time. This will represent one the final opportunities traders will have to relieve themselves of excess portfolio leverage and risk.
We very well may spend the summer months retracing higher...but there is no doubt some of you reading this will assume this will result in the resumption of the previous bull market.
It will not be.
US Stocks Wipe Out $6.6 Trillion in Two Days—What Just Happened?Shoutout to the real MVPs of April: the traders who did absolutely nothing. You market wizards, zen masters of the sidelines — while others were busy buying the dip that kept on dipping, you outperformed the S&P 500 SP:SPX , avoiding the nastiest market faceplant since the Covid crash of March 2020.
Since April 2, Liquidation Day , Liberation Day , the S&P 500 SP:SPX has nosedived a brutal 10%. That’s officially a correction — the kind that makes you stare out your window like a philosopher, questioning your life choices, your portfolio, and whether you really needed that Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA call.
This isn’t just a dip. It’s a market reality check served with extra salt. So raise a (half empty?) glass to the ones who stayed flat — you just made Warren Buffett proud . In a world of overtrading, doing nothing was the most alpha move of all.
Everyone who checked the market at least once on Thursday or Friday (even today when futures markets were all red ) knows what that is all about.
It’s Trump’s tariff rollout coming like a wrecking ball. While the US President portrays his efforts as a fair and even lenient response to other countries’ trade policies with the US, investors don't seem to think so.
In just two days, Thursday and Friday, the US stock market washed out $6.6 trillion. The violent selloff threw the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC into a bear market (down 20% from its peak) and the S&P 500 into correction territory. The broad-based Wall Street darling waved goodbye to 6% on Friday, extending its 4.8% loss from the previous day.
On Thursday, Trump unveiled his new plan to boost the US economy through reciprocal tariffs. China got hammered with a total of 54% , while Europe wasn’t spared either, slapped with a flat 20%.
Some uninhabited islands also made the list — Heard and McDonald Islands (Australia's icy outpost) and Jan Mayen (Norway's frozen Arctic rock) got served a 10% tariff.
Now, the thing with tariffs is, they tend to backfire. Because they are paid by the party receiving them, i.e. US companies, they hike the prices of imported goods, squeeze consumers, and isolate the country imposing them. They strain international trade relationships, disrupt supply chains, and — as history shows — often spark retaliation.
And that’s exactly what happened. On Friday, China hit back hard, launching a 34% tariff barrage on US imports — a sharp counter-strike against Trump’s escalating trade war tactics.
What did Trump say on the matter? “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” he said on his social media platform.
Just as the markets were a dumpster fire on Friday, Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell gave a speech at a business journalists' conference. In his remarks, he said that Trump’s tariffs would cause “higher inflation and slower growth.”
“It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects,” Powell said.
Trump's response?
“This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly,” Trump wrote in a post. “Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!”
So here we are — $6.6 trillion lighter, futures in free fall, inflation fears reignited, and a full-blown trade war back on the table. The Fed’s caught in a political crossfire, Trump’s turning up the heat, and markets are flashing every red light imaginable.
On top of it all, corporate earnings are just around the corner with the big banks on Wall Street kicking off the first-quarter reporting at the end of this week. Keep track of all big reports in the Earnings Calendar .
One thing’s for sure: this isn’t the time to trade on hope or headlines. It’s the time to trade with eyes wide open, risk tightly managed, and a clear understanding that your next move could shape the rest of your year. Most of all, don’t panic .
Off to you now: are you sitting this one out like Buffett — or are you moving in before the smoke clears?
S&P 500: Historic Crash or Just Another Chance?Let’s be real: What’s happening with the S&P 500 right now is rare. This is only the fourth time in history that the index has dropped more than 10% in two days (technically three, including today’s Monday session). The other times? October 1987, November 2008 during the financial crisis, and March 2020 during the pandemic crash.
And now? We’re seeing a similar drop, this time triggered by a global tariff war , stoked by the U.S. and other governments playing chicken to see who folds first.
Yeah, it sucks. It hurts. But it could also be a hell of an opportunity.
We just tagged the 4,800 level —a place many didn’t expect to see this quickly. Neither did I. But here we are. The untapped VWAP got hit, and this might very well be the start of Wave A. Could we go lower? Absolutely. There’s a monthly Fair Value Gap around $4,500, and a drop to $4,250 isn’t out of the question either.
But here’s the thing: it depends entirely on your perspective.
If you’re trading on the 30-minute chart, this is a full-blown crisis. But zoom out to the daily, weekly, or monthly chart—and it’s just market noise.
Pull up the log chart from 1953 to 2025 in the top left corner. We’ve seen this before. A handful of times. And on that scale? Nobody cares.
If you’re in the game to build long-term wealth, this moment is just another temporary shakeout. If you’re doing dollar-cost averaging, this is exactly where you want to be adding—not panicking.
The market doesn’t care about your plan. It forces you to adapt. You can’t fight it, only flow with it.
And if you’re in it for the long haul? This is just noise. Ignore it, zoom out – and stay the course.
Bullish Pullback Opportunity: A High-Probability Long SetupToday’s chart shows a strong bearish trend on SP:SPX with price comfortably trading below key moving averages—20, 50, 100, and 200 EMA—which confirms that the long-term downtrend is intact. Notably, after an aggressive downward move, the price has retraced to the 20 EMA, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
The pullback appears healthy, and we’re now seeing early signs of a bullish reversal—look for a bullish engulfing pattern or a strong green candle as confirmation. Adding further conviction, the RSI is holding in a neutral zone (around 40-60), indicating that the asset isn’t overextended yet.
Trade Setup:
Entry : Consider entering long on confirmation of a bounce off the 20 EMA.
Stop-Loss : Place your stop just below the 50 EMA or the recent swing low for a tight, controlled risk.
Take Profit : Aim for the next resistance level or a minimum risk-reward ratio of 2:1.
This setup offers a balanced risk profile and capitalizes on the confluence of support from the EMAs and neutral momentum shown by the RSI.
S&P500 - What's next - Tariffs , Interest Rate decision? As of March 18, 2025, the S&P 500 index has experienced significant volatility, influenced by President Donald Trump's recent tariff policies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
Scenario 1: Upside Potential Towards All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 has recently shown signs of recovery, with a 0.6% rise on Monday following a 2.1% surge on Friday, marking its best performance since Trump's re-election. This rebound suggests that, despite earlier corrections, investor sentiment may be improving.
If the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in its upcoming meeting, it could signal confidence in the economy's resilience amid trade tensions. Such a stance might encourage further investment in equities, potentially propelling the S&P 500 towards its all-time highs. Additionally, some analysts believe that the market's recent correction is a healthy adjustment, and with improved earnings revisions and seasonal strength, a continued rally is plausible.
Scenario 2: Downside Risk Towards the 5,000 Support Level
Conversely, the aggressive tariff policies introduced by President Trump have raised concerns about inflationary pressures and potential slowdowns in economic growth. UBS analysts project that if the U.S. implements a 60% import tax on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports, the S&P 500 could end next year at 5,200, an 11% decline from its recent record close.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that the current tariff plans could lead to a 5% drop in the S&P 500 in the coming months, as increased costs may squeeze corporate profit margins. If the Federal Reserve responds to these inflationary concerns by maintaining or even raising interest rates, borrowing costs could rise, potentially dampening consumer spending and business investment. Such developments might exert downward pressure on the S&P 500, bringing it closer to the 5,000 support level.
Summa Money
Our conclusion.
The S&P 500's trajectory in the near term is intricately linked to the outcomes of trade policies and monetary decisions. While the market has demonstrated resilience, the dual forces of tariff-induced economic adjustments and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance will play pivotal roles in determining whether the index ascends towards new highs or retreats to key support levels.
In these volatile times, it is definitely a tough time to predict how the market would move , so this is why we are looking into the different options as how things would pan-out in the upcoming months in regards to the S&P500!
Positive outcome - Enter here with a target just below the ATH at 6,000 points, with your stop loss being above the bottom at 5,125 points
Negative outcome - Entere here with a target around the bottom at 5,000 , with a stop loss around the resistnace 5,750
I am interested to hear out your thoughs on this analysis and overall the idea behind whats happening with the U.S. economy and what would be the reaction for the S&P500!
US500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market PanicUS500 Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Market Panic
On a larger scale, the US500 is positioned for a bearish trend, but recently, it has been hesitant to move downward, leading to a larger correction phase.
Today, fears surrounding Trump’s tariff-related announcements have thrown the market into panic mode.
Concerns that these tariffs could harm multiple sectors are causing a sell-off ahead of the news, as shown in the chart.
Let’s see how the situation unfolds.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
S&P Direction - Bounce back for a lower low?As I’ve posted on March 4th, I was expecting a second shoulder of the pattern (and then a sharp fall due to some news) and we were going to have it - the bounce back - until the tariff turbulance. A clear positive divergence of the RSI was appearing on the daily chart and the momentum has turned upwards. And then you know what happened. The sharp fall came a couple of weeks earlier than I’ve anticipated. The market will definitely bounce back but when and at what level? Nobody can know, however the artefacts will probably cause a lower low afterwards. Check out the pattern of the 2022 downtrend. The water seems to be muddy for a while.
(Read) Comprehensive Analysis of Potential S&P500 Market CrashThe S&P 500 Index, a barometer of U.S. equity market health, faces heightened scrutiny as analysts debate the likelihood and severity of a potential market correction or crash in the coming years. Synthesizing forecasts from leading financial institutions, historical patterns, and macroeconomic indicators reveals a complex landscape of competing narratives. This report evaluates the evidence for a near-term market downturn, projected crash magnitudes, and the interplay of factors that could catalyse or mitigate such an event.
Historical Context of S&P 500 Corrections and Crashes :
The S&P 500 has experienced 27 corrections exceeding 10% since 1928, with an average decline of 13.7% over four months. True crashes—defined as drops exceeding 20%—have occurred 14 times, most recently during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic (-34% peak-to-trough) and the 2022 inflation-driven bear market (-25.4%). Historical analysis shows crashes typically follow periods of excessive valuations, monetary policy tightening cycles, or exogenous shocks.
The index’s current forward P/E ratio of 21.8 sits 32% above its 25-year average, raising concerns about overvaluation. However, this metric alone proves insufficient for timing corrections, as demonstrated during the late 1990s tech bubble when valuations remained elevated for years before the eventual 49% crash from 2000-2002.
Current Macroeconomic Conditions and Risk Factors:
Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rate Trajectory:
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment creates policy tensions as core PCE inflation remains at 2.8% year-over-year (January 2025) against a 3.9% unemployment rate4. With the Fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, real rates stand at 2.45%—their highest level since 2007. Historical precedent suggests such restrictive policy environments precede recessions 70% of the time within 18 months.
Earnings Growth and Valuation Concerns:
Analysts project 14.8% earnings growth for S&P 500 constituents in 2025, driven primarily by the technology sector’s AI investments. However, this growth assumes no recession and continued margin expansion—a precarious assumption given rising labour costs and potential demand softening. The index’s Shiller CAPE ratio of 32.6 exceeds 1929 levels (32.5) and approaches the 2000 peak (44.2).
Geopolitical and Systemic Risks:
Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea, coupled with U.S.-China trade tensions, introduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Energy markets remain volatile, with Brent crude at $92/barrel as of February 2025—a 28% year-over-year increase—pressuring corporate input costs.
Divergent Institutional Forecasts for 2025-2026:
Bull Case: Technology-Led Growth Continuation
UBS and Goldman Sachs project 2025 year-end targets of 6,600 (+13%) and 6,400 (+9.8%) respectively, citing:
AI-driven productivity gains adding 1.2% to annual GDP growth
Fed rate cuts totalling 75bps by Q3 2025
Corporate buybacks exceeding $1.2 trillion annually
Bear Case: Valuation Reset and Policy Error
Stifel’s analysis of 139 years of market data identifies parallels with 1929, 2000, and 2020 manias, forecasting:
A final speculative surge to ~6,400 (+26% from current levels)
Subsequent crash to 4,750 (-26%) by late 2025
Decadal underperformance with real returns averaging 2.1% through 2035
Independent analysts like Sven Carlin warn of 30% corrections as normalized rates (10-year Treasury at 4.5-5%) pressure equity risk premiums. This aligns with the Buffett Indicator (market cap/GDP) at 188%—surpassing 2000 and 1929 extremes.
Crash Probability Analysis and Potential Triggers
Quantitative Models and Leading Indicators
Recession Probability Models:
NY Fed’s yield curve model: 58% chance of recession by Q3 2026
Conference Board Leading Economic Index: -4.1% annualized decline
Technical Analysis:
Monthly RSI at 72 (overbought territory last seen pre-2008 crash)
Advance-Decline Line divergence since November 2024
Likely Catalysts for Correction:
Trigger Probability Potential Impact
Fed Policy Mistake 45% -15% to -25%
Geopolitical Shock 30% -10% to -20%
Earnings Recession 55% -20% to -35%
Systematic Leverage Unwind 25% -25% to -40%
The convergence of multiple triggers—such as stagflationary conditions combined with derivative market stress—could amplify losses beyond 30%.
Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities and Opportunities
High-Risk Sectors
Technology: 35% of index weighting trades at 32x forward earnings. 40% of AI-related revenue projections lack concrete use cases.
Consumer Discretionary: Rising delinquency rates (6.1% on auto loans) signal demand destruction.
Real Estate: Commercial property valuations down 18% from peaks with $1.5 trillion in maturing debt through 20262.
Defensive Opportunities
Utilities: 4.2% dividend yield with 85% regulated revenue streams.
Healthcare: Demographic tailwinds and 12.8x P/E multiple 23% below 10-year average.
Consumer Staples: Pricing power demonstrated through 6.4% organic growth despite volume declines.
Historical Crash Patterns and 2025 Scenario Analysis
Comparative Scenario Modeling
Scenario S&P 500 Path Probability
Soft Landing 6,900 (+17%) 25%
Mild Recession 5,200 (-12%) 40%
Systemic Crisis 4,100 (-30%) 20%
1970s-Style Stagflation 3,600 (-39%) 15%
The base case (40% probability) anticipates a rolling correction:
Q2 2025: Peak at 6,400 on AI hype and Fed cut hopes
Q3 2025: -18% decline as earnings disappoint
Q4 2025: Partial recovery to 5,600 on policy response
This aligns with VIX futures term structure showing heightened volatility expectations from June 2025 onward.
Risk Mitigation Strategies for Investors
Portfolio Construction Recommendations:
Equity Exposure: Reduce beta to 0.8 through:
15% cash allocation yielding 5.3% in money markets
20% minimum volatility ETFs (USMV)
5% long-dated put options (Jan 2026 4,800 strike)
Fixed Income: Ladder 2-10 year Treasuries capturing 4.6-5.1% yields.
Alternative Assets:
10% commodities (gold, copper, uranium)
5% managed futures (DBMF) for trend following
Behavioral Considerations
Avoid performance chasing in Mag-7 stocks trading at 40x average P/E
Rebalance quarterly to maintain risk thresholds
Stress test portfolios against 35% equity drawdown scenarios
Conclusion: Navigating Uncertainty in Late-Cycle Markets
The S&P 500 faces its most complex macroeconomic environment since the Global Financial Crisis, with valuation extremes colliding against technological transformation. While crash probabilities remain elevated (55-60% chance of >20% decline by Q2 2026), the timing and magnitude depend critically on:
Fed Pivot Timing: Premature easing could reignite inflation, delaying cuts risks debt crisis
AI Monetization: Current $4.3 trillion market cap attributed to AI must materialize in earnings
Geopolitical Stability: 34 national elections in 2025 introduce policy uncertainty
We should prioritize capital preservation through disciplined asset allocation while maintaining exposure to structural growth themes. Historical analysis suggests that even severe crashes (30-40%) present generational buying opportunities for those with liquidity and fortitude to withstand volatility.
SPX POSSIBLE RECOVERY UP TO 7000-7500first quarter wasn't bright for spx. but it can recover at moderate phase.
S&P 500 Long Term Bullish ContinuationWith the current uncertainty regarding the global economy and fears of recession, VANTAGE:SP500 has already dropped approx. 20% in the last few weeks.
However, currently price has retraced to the long term support trend line which perfectly aligns with the 2020 top, turning it into an attractive S&R level where price could find support.
Even if price does not find support here, current market price is still a very good accumulation area for long term buyers and investors!
S&P 500 ,,, Update
The chart has reached a major support area, despite the presence of large emotional bearish candles. While taking a position at the V-shaped pivot point carries some risk, the market may react emotionally given its previous decline like the 2020 correction.
This support area is comprised of:
- A significant pivot point from January 2022
- A PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) between the 50-61.8 Fibonacci retracement levels
- The 100 Fibonacci extension level
- Support from a valid trend line
Trend changes can be unpredictable, and opinions may vary among traders and analysts. However, this presents a low-risk opportunity to consider new buying positions once clear signs of a trend reversal emerge.
It's essential to be patient and wait for the right moment to act.
