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SPX500 trade ideas

SPX a bounce or reversal?The S&P remains in a broader uptrend that began in late October 2023, but this week we saw a test to that structure. Price dipped below this key uptrend line but quickly reclaimed it, finding support on this line as well as the weekly’s 20 EMA. In Friday’s trading session, we saw a high-volume reversal, which could signal a potential bounce. The bigger question remains: is this just a retest before breaking lower, or the start of a true bullish reversal? Right now, I lean toward this being a bounce rather than a full reversal, meaning we could see another attempt to break down through the October trendline in the coming weeks. That said, trades to the upside may still be viable if the market follows through early next week. If price pops above the daily moving averages, I think we are likely see some choppy action as the market decides whether to resume the uptrend or roll over again. Key Levels to Watch: 6,010 Short-term resistance. Price must reclaim this level to continue higher. 5,954 Right on the long-term uptrend area. Holding above this level keeps the reversal in play, but failure increases breakdown risk. 5,840 Breakdown level. A break below this would signal a deeper pullback, likely toward the weekly’s 50 SMA. Potential Scenarios: 🔼 Bullish A hold above 5,954 and a move through 6,010 could lead to a push toward the recent highs. A strong reclaim of the daily moving averages would shift momentum higher. 🔻 Bearish A failure at 5954 or a rejection at the moving averages may confirm this as a retest before another leg down. A break below 5,773 would indicate weakness, and could lead to a deeper correction. ⚖️ Neutral If price moves above the MAs but lacks follow through, we could see chop between 5,840 - 6,010, signaling indecision. I'll be watching this week to see if this reversal holds or if it was just a retest before a breakdown. If selling pressure builds, we could see the first meaningful correction in months.
SP:SPX
by emanuelaelias
S&P Oversold bounce backThe S&P 500 (US500) index maintains a bullish bias within the broader long-term uptrend. However, recent price action suggests a period of consolidation following the retest of the all-time high on February 19, 2025. The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 5918 level acting as a key support zone. Bullish Scenario: The 5918 level serves as a newly established support, aligning with the consolidation range and prior resistance. A corrective pullback towards this level, followed by a bullish bounce, could confirm continued upside momentum. Upside targets include: 6000 (50-day moving average) 6055 (20-day moving average) 6100 over the longer term Bearish Scenario: A confirmed loss of 5918 support with a daily close below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook. This could trigger a deeper retracement, exposing the following downside levels: 5854 (next key support) 5800, with a potential extension to 5777 if selling pressure accelerates Market Outlook: The 5918 level remains pivotal—holding above this support sustains the bullish bias, while a decisive break below it signals potential downside continuation. Traders should closely monitor price action and volume around this key level to assess the market’s next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
US 500 – Strength of Rebound From Friday Low to be TestedThe US 500 bounced 1.4% from its January 2025 lows on Friday, ensuring a volatile week of trading finished on a slightly more positive note than may have been the case earlier in the day. However, the strength of this rally is likely to be put through a stern test in the week ahead. Why? The week is packed full of risk events, including key US economic data, in the form of the forward-looking ISM Manufacturing (Monday 1500 GMT) and Services (Wednesday 1500 GMT) PMI surveys, the latest update on the strength of the US labour market, provided by the Non-farm Payrolls update (Friday 1330 GMT), and earnings from consumer bellwether Target (before the open Tuesday). President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are due to start on Tuesday, which if they happen are likely to see retaliatory tariffs initiated on the US. Then to top it all off, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is speaking on Friday (1730 GMT). The topic, the US economic outlook. Wow! There is, of course, always the potential for unscheduled social media comments from President Trump to factor into the volatility mix, like those last night which sent crypto markets sharply higher for a period, as well as updates on the geo-political situations in Ukraine and the Middle East. Being prepared is important, and that includes knowing the chart levels and trends as we look at the US 500 this morning. Technical Update: Friday's Recover in Focus It has certainly been a sharp sell-off in the US 500 index since the all-time high was registered at 6144 on February 19th. However, it’s probably too early to tell if this represents the first signs of a negative sentiment shift, or as has been the case previously, dips in price are being used as an opportunity to buy a market still within an uptrend. Potential Support Levels: The basic definition of an uptrend in price, is a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This reflects buyers are not only using price weakness as a buying opportunity but are also willing to pay a higher price. It could be argued this suggests positive sentiment has been evident. While this is no guarantee that this is still the case in the US 500 index, looking at the chart above, this type of positive pattern has been in place since the sell-off in price to the August 5th 2024 low at 5089. So far at least, the current US 500 index level remains above 5757 which was the January 13th 2025 last correction low of the uptrend pattern, and traders may be watching this level, feeling it might be pivotal for the next trending pattern. If closes materialise below 5757 over the coming days or weeks, traders may start to feel risks are turning towards a deeper retracement of the August 2024 to February 2025 price strength, with the 38% retracement level of that move providing a potential support focus at 5741, the 50% retracement at 5616, and the 62% point at 5491. Potential Resistance Levels: That said, while the January 13th low at 5757 continues to hold any price weakness, it is possible the uptrend pattern in price remains in place. If that’s the case, knowing what resistance levels might be worthwhile monitoring could be helpful. As the chart above shows, last Friday did see a rally as a reactive recovery to the recent sharp sell-off. These recovery themes are so far being developed further this morning, with the index currently trading above 5952. This level is equal to the 38% retracement of the February price decline. Now, this price break above this first retracement resistance level does need to sustained on a closing basis, but even then, traders may well focus on a possible higher resistance at 6025/37, which is equal to the 62% retracement and matches the current level of the declining Bollinger mid-average. It is possible closing breaks above this resistance area are needed to suggest the potential of a more extended phase of price strength, even extension of the current uptrend pattern. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins - Here's what's next...Bear Swing Ends, Bullish Setup Begins – Here’s What’s Next | SPX Market Analysis 03 Mar 2025 Last week’s bear swing trade wrapped up beautifully, moving from range highs to range lows, before Friday delivered the perfect reversal. Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band, turned with multiple bullish pulse bars, and gave us a classic V-shaped price action entry—the perfect signal to exit the last bear trades and start the bullish swing. Now, I’m targeting 6,000 and 6,140, with hedge/bear triggers set below the recent lows. Meanwhile, Trump just dropped a bombshell over the weekend, hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens. Could this inject some extra spice into the markets this week? Let’s dive in. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The bear swing from last week completed as expected, moving from the larger range highs to the range lows, where Friday delivered a clean reversal setup. 📌 The Trade Setup – The Bullish Turn is In Price tagged the lower Bollinger Band – a key reversal zone Multiple bullish pulse bars confirmed momentum shift A V-shaped price action entry signaled the start of the bullish swing Exited the last bear trades as the trend flipped 📌 Bullish Program & Market Structure Now targeting: Smaller range low from last week’s 30-min chart Major resistance at 6,000 and 6,140 Hedge/bear triggers set below recent lows to manage risk 📌 Market News – Trump’s Crypto Reserve Idea Over the weekend, Trump hinted at a U.S. crypto reserve backed by five tokens This could spark volatility as traders absorb the implications Will this push risk-on sentiment higher, or cause unexpected market shakeups? The bullish program is in full motion, and I’ll be watching how price reacts at key levels this week while keeping an eye on how the market digests the crypto reserve news. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2010, a Bitcoin developer bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC, now worth over $500 million—marking the first recorded Bitcoin transaction for goods. 💡 The Lesson? Markets evolve fast, and what seems trivial today could be worth millions in the future. With Trump hinting at a U.S. crypto reserve, could we be at the start of another major shift in financial history?
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
US500 Will Go Up! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for US500. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5,973.19. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,138.47 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US500Long
by SignalProvider
1
US500- A buy setup coming upHello, A nice correction happening on this pair US500. The S&P 500 Index, also known as the Standard & Poor’s 500 or the US500, is an American stock market index that tracks the performance of the top 500 companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market or the New York Stock Exchange. It is a free-floating index covering US firms with the largest market capitalization and book value, representing approximately 80 per cent of the total value of the country’s equity market. I expect a smaller correction on the US500 lower timeframe before a continuation to the upside. Look for entries on lower timeframes with a target at the top. Stop loss below the bottom. Zero crossover on the MACD to be used as confirmation as well. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Good luck.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
SPX: break of long term trend-lineThe game of nerves could be one of descriptions of developments on the US equity markets during the previous week. It was a heavy week due to a significant drop in the value of the S&P 500 but also other US equity indexes. The index declined about 1% during the previous week, and 1,4% since the beginning of February. Friday brought back significant buyers, where the index managed to end the week at the level of 5.954. The lowest weekly level was at 5.840. Tech companies were trying to hold, however, the majority ended February in a negative territory. Tesla is one of the most hit companies, with a weekly loss of around 16%. Analysts are noting that this represents the highest weekly loss of TSLA since December 2022. Other large companies also had significant drop, where Nvidia lost around 10%, while Palantir was down by around 19%, after recently reaching the historically highest level. On the other hand, companies within the financial sector performed in a positive manner, rising 1,3% for the week. When looking at the daily chart of S&P 500, the major support line was clearly breached. This line connects historical lows from October 2023, August 2024 and January 2025. It has been clearly breached on Thursday, however, Friday trading session brought the index back toward this line, but this time from the down side. Whether Friday's positive sentiment will continue is to be seen on Monday. For the moment the US equity market is under strong influence of geopolitical topics and potential trade tariffs. In addition, it should be considered that NFP data will be published in a week ahead, which might influence some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX