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SPX500 trade ideas

S&P 500 Sees Possible Bearish Signs Like the ‘Mini Death Cross’We recently had the lack of a so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” an omission that’s historically a negative sign for stocks. And now, the S&P 500 SP:SPX -- the broadest large-cap U.S. equity index -- has developed a pattern of bearish reversal as well. Check out the SPX’s chart going back six months through Wednesday (Jan. 8): Readers will see that the S&P 500 developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal in late October and stretching into 2025, as denoted by the three purple triangles to the right of the above chart. This pattern displays a neckline/pivot point of 5,827 -- slightly above the 5,810.68 that the S&P 500 was trading at midday Friday, but even with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the index’s August low to its December high. This 23.6% Fibonacci level (denoted by one of the thick blue horizontal lines at the chart’s left) makes the SPX’s 5,827 level all that much more important as a potential pivot. Pivot points typically represent where support or resistance show up for a stock or index, depending on the price action’s direction. A pivot point can also act like an accelerant or slingshot if the stock or index breaks the pivot level. Elsewhere in the above chart, readers will see that the S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index (the gray bar at the chart’s top) was neutral as of Wednesday's close. However, the index’s daily Moving average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom -- had repositioned itself to appear more bearish. The histogram of the index’s 9-day exponential moving average -- or “EMA,” marked with blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- was running below zero. That’s often reflective of a recent loss of upward momentum. Meanwhile, the 12-day EMA (the black line at the chart’s bottom) moved below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s a historically bearish move. Additionally, the S&P 500 is undergoing what’s called a “swing traders' cross” or “mini death cross.” That’s a bearish “cross-under,” where a stock or index’s 21-day EMA (the green line in the chart above) moves below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above). Where Does the S&P 500’s Chart Show Support? With Friday’s break below the above chart pattern's neckline, the S&P 500’s next key support level could be 5,605 -- the “half-way back point” or a 50% retracement of the index’s August-to-December run. (While common, 50% retracements are not true Fibonacci levels.) (At the time of writing this column, Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no positions in S&P 500 ETFs or index funds.) Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into. Past performance is no indication of future results. Investing involves risk and the potential to lose principal. This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
SP:SPX
by moomoo
1
S&P 500 IndexThe chart displays the S&P 500 Index from the TradingView platform. It shows candlestick patterns reflecting price movements, a yellow line at the 5,927.89 level that appears to act as a resistance level, and a projection of future movement, suggesting an upward move to the resistance followed by a sharp decline. Technical Analysis and Possible Actions: Resistance Level (5,927.89): This level may serve as an area of increased selling pressure. If the index reaches this point and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern or weakening indicators), it could signal a selling opportunity. Action Plan: Look for confirmation to enter a short position near the resistance. Use technical indicators like RSI or MACD to check for signs of overbought conditions or momentum loss. Potential Downside Targets: Support levels seem to be around 5,904 or lower, depending on the strength of the downward move. Technical Indicators: The lower part of the chart shows indicators that may point to the strength and momentum of the current trend. Ensure they align with the expected move for confirmation.
SP:SPXShort
by tradexict
NEW UPDATE UPDATE OF SP500NEW UPDATE UPDATE OF SP500 Hello Guy's this is My OverView For (SPX500) Feel Free To Check It And Write Your Feedback In Comments Please do not forget the like button, Share it with your friends According to my analyse SP price is going to up and the break resistance and hit my target 🎯 As you all see in chart 📉 SP price touch one time resistance and go down 👇 and touch two times supert but not break the support area now price going up and break the resistance Easley and hit my target 🎯 Entry point 👉 5,918.26 Target 🎯 6,199.78 Stop 🛑 loss 5,865.34
SP:SPX
by mrsagarfx
Calm before the storm?The first ten days of the year for the S&P 500 index were surprisingly calm and without the interest it had in other years, finding it making a sideways downward movement towards the double "cushion" of support that is presented on the weekly price chart between 5,850 and 5,740 units. An important anti-shock zone that has the ability to absorb any liquidations that come out without spoiling the indication of the medium-term upward trend. The negative element is that with the sideways stabilizing movement that the index has been making since the beginning of last November between 6,100 and 5,850 points, it has brought closer to the very heavy 200-day moving average, which has now climbed to 5,657 points or -4% from current price levels. The week that will begin is therefore important as the index will have to show us its cards with what it intends to do. Thus, a possible passage of the index below 5,800 points will raise the attention of sellers since it will give them the right to push it further towards 5,740 and 5,700 points. On the other hand, a dynamic push above 5,800 points may bring 6,000 points back into the spotlight. Analysts may now be giving higher target prices for the S&P 500 for 2025, but at the same time they are expressing some skepticism about the ability of the "Magnificent 7" to pull the chariot on the uphill road to 7,000 points. Characteristic are the "pulled" figures that give both the P/E ratio and the P/S ratio for these seven giants in relation to the average of the S&P 500. So while the index has a P/E of 28 and a P/S of 3, Tesla has a P/E of 111 (!) and a P/S of 15, Nvidia P/E:53 and P/S:29, Amazon P/E:47 and P/S:3.8, Apple P/E:41 and P/S:10, Microsoft P/E:35 and P/S:12, Meta P/E:28 and P/S:9.8 and finally Google appears with P/E:25 and P/S:7.1. Indeed, the indicators show an "overflow" in the capitalization of the "Magnificent 7", but the financial data that will begin to come out from the first quarter of 2025 may open the way for higher numbers in their share values.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by manthos
Elliott Wave View: S&P 500 (SPX) Looking for a Double CorrectionShort Term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests the rally to 6099.6 ended wave ((3)). Pullback in wave ((4)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from December 22, 2022 low. Internal subdivision of the pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave A ended at 6029.89 and wave B rally ended at 6092.59. The Index then resumed lower in wave C towards 5832.3. This completed wave (W) in higher degree. From there, Index corrected in wave (X). Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 5982.06 and wave B ended at 5902.57. Wave C higher ended at 6049.75 which completed wave (X). The Index has resumed lower in wave (Y). Down from wave (X), wave W ended at 5869.16. Wave X unfolded as an expanded flat structure. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 5940.79, and wave ((b)) pullback ended at 5829.53. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 6021.04 which completed wave X in higher degree. Index then resumed lower in wave Y. Down from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 5874.78. Near term, as far as pivot at 6099.65 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This area comes at 5616 -5782 where support can be seen.
TVC:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
S&P 500 rangeThe S&P 500 Index has been ranging sideways since the US Election gap up on November 6th 2024. SPX support is by the October 2024 high 5850 area. Resistance is by the 6050 zone, even though there was an attempt to hit 6100 in the beginning of December before the FOMC rate cut and government shutdown fear drop on December 18th. Trading a range simplifies long and short entries and exits. However, it only works while the trading range continues. If there's a breakout or breakdown then this range will be invalidated. For the time being, my trade idea is straightforward on SPX. Go long at 5850 and go short at 6050. I think the market is in wait and see mode until Mega Cap earnings in a few weeks. A note of caution, options data is currently extremely bearish through the end of this month. Mega Cap earnings dates: 1/28 MSFT 4:05pm GOOG 4:05pm 1/29 TSLA 4:05 1/30 AMZN 4pm META 4:05pm AAPL 4:30pm SPX options data: 1/10 expiry Put Volume Total 152,200 Call Volume Total 69,422 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.19 Put Open Interest Total 425,831 Call Open Interest Total 108,857 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.91 1/17 expiry Put Volume Total 129,140 Call Volume Total 97,195 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 1,917,625 Call Open Interest Total 1,013,708 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.89 1/24 expiry Put Volume Total 11,864 Call Volume Total 8,911 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.33 Put Open Interest Total 156,526 Call Open Interest Total 46,537 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.36 1/31 expiry Put Volume Total 36,487 Call Volume Total 12,299 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.97 Put Open Interest Total 449,738 Call Open Interest Total 116,092 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.87
CBOE:SPX
by Options360
US500 SHORT For the US100 the market has broken the Daily Market structure line that had been established and has broken through the 50SMA and been consolidating here, forming a symmetric Triangle pattern. We are testing the 100SMA on the daily which is providing support, The Fib Retracement level for US500 for the weekly Move is at around 5300-5600, which is where we will target our short on clear break down of the symmetric triangle. Please like share and comment if you like the Idea and do tell me what else youd like to see! My Goal is to equip traders with the knowledge and ideas that will make them financially Free!
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
The USA S&P 500 Indexthe USA S&P 500 Index (15-minute timeframe), highlighting a recent price action scenario. It shows a rising wedge pattern followed by a significant bearish breakout. The price retraced to a resistance zone around 5984.20 and is now consolidating. Two potential paths are illustrated: either a continuation upwards toward the 6000 level or a rejection that could lead to a further decline toward 5940 support. Fundamental Note: Investors might be cautious due to mixed economic data or upcoming Federal Reserve commentary, which could influence volatility and overall market sentiment.
ICMARKETS:US500
by DreamsForx
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 5,924.14 1st Support: 5,838.66 1st Resistance: 5,964.07 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by ICmarkets
US500 We will conduct a top Down analysis for the US500. The US500 us currently In a large Bull run, it is forming a Series of Higher highs and higher lows on the Weekly Time frame. We are currently at the 100 Fib extensions Level taken from the 2020 Covid Low. Both Capital Inflows and Volume remain positive but at the highs right now seem to be decreasing but remains positive. Market has made a HH and is now testing the Market structure line that has been strong this entire bull run. Moving below to the Daily we can see clear weakness in the markets with multiple tests of the 50SMA and 10SMA now below the 50SMA. Whether this region holds is yet to be seen. We have a clear break of market structure from the bullish Wave that started on 6th of September with a retest of that took place on the 26th of December with a failure to break back above. Currently on the Daily TF, the markets are losing money with CMF below zero indicating distribution and OBV decreasing aswell. The break of market structure of this bullish Wave allows us to Identify retracement Zones where we can see 0.5 ot 0.618 level being of Importance. If we come down to the 4H we can see that currently the zone is range bound with ranging price action with the bottom of the range around the 5870 level, albeit with a succession of LH that have formed. The price in this Range has broken the 200SMA multiple times indicating market weakness in the intermediate Term. WIth price below the 20SMA we also see weakness. We have Resistance Trend Line that is forming with the LH on the 4H. On the 1H we remain firmly Bearish with immediate price action. This market seems like it has reached a top on the Weekly and needs resetting and the 4H and Daily price action confirm this with a break of the Large trend line. We are testing the Weekly Trend line that has been established For over 2 years. We are reactive and not predictive so we will wait to see what the market does, on breaks of the Range Zone the market will cool off on the Daily bullish Wave, but if this Daily bullish Cooldown breaks the Weekly Market structure we may be in for a large bear market this year.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble). 2. Monetary Policy Tightening Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008). 3. Leverage and Debt Crises Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008). 4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929). 5. Liquidity Crises A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday). 6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020). 7. Declining Consumer Confidence Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s). 8. Corporate Earnings Decline Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis). 9. Structural Economic Weakness Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020). 10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
SP:SPXShort
by Heartbeat_Trading
2
SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade (Continuation)This is a continuation to my previously posted trade... Unfortunately I stopped out on the previous trade. That's my fault. There's additional analysis I did that helped me understand where I missed. However, the pattern is still very much in tact and the opportunity still exists. Here's a summary of what I go through in the video, but most important is watch the video to get the full details to better understand the observations. 1hr Chart: After reviewing the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr, 5min, 1min charts I recognized the most important indicator for the current prices is the 1hr chart and most important the 50MA crossing down on the 200MA. In addition, there are additional indicators that currently and historically are most important for this setup. Here are the 5 mentioned in the video. - H&S Pattern/Triple Top/Divergence initial formation - Cross down on Strong Support Line - Retest/Fail Strong Support Line - A wave up/down, forming a downward trendline - QQE Signal triggering short as it approaches the channel support line towards a break Historically there have been 4 instances since 2022 when the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA on the 1hr chart July 26, 2024 - -5.0% in 48 bars (5-6 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Apr 15, 2024 - -3.70% 35 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Aug 10. 2023 - -3.75% 40 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move Feb 24. 2023 - -5.8% 75 bars (10 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move As mentioned in the video, it has been 7 trading days since the current cross of the 50MA of the 200MA, however, it's unique that the cross took place during the low volume holiday trading period which may have an effect on timing compared to historical moves. Please watch the video for more in depth insight into the historical pattern formations and the relationship to the current price action along with my prediction and trade potential. Fundamental Support: Is still intact from the prior trade - Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs) - Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 (325B) - Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44 - FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025 - Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target - Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted. Economic Data: - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position. However, I went back and reviewed previous employment reports and market movements, and basically whatever the trend the market was in at the time of publication, it continued to move in, so I'm not overly concerned. - Next week PPI and CPI will be published on Tues Jan 14th and Wed Jan 15th respectively. These are both potential movers if they were to come in lower/higher, as it may impact the % chance of FED cuts. - Trump inauguration on Monday Jan 20th, also falling on Martin Luther King Day (Markets Closed). I would anticipate potential positive market reaction following his inauguration given the pro-business policies and potential rally, so this is a risk. Overall: If you've watched the video, you can see that the chart patterns historically match up very well to the current. Again, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. There's no sure thing in this business, however, considering all the factors, I find this to be a solid technical and fundamental trade and given the dominos fall in line I will be taking a position. Current Position: I currently have not taken a position on this trade. I am waiting for the QQE Short signal as mentioned in the video, or any other relevant move to give me the green light. However, here's what I'm looking for if all goes to plan...I will update in the notes if/when I take a position. SPXS Call Options Strike $6.00 Expiration Jan 24th, based on the estimated timeframe mentioned in the video Option Price: Ideally .20-.30 Options: 50-100 depending on my confidence in the chart and price above Stop: 1/2 my entry price Target: Given SPXS is 3x Bear the S&P...I estimate the first target range is $6.75-$6.90 which would be reaching the previous ATH of S&P of 5675 Option Price Est. $.85-$1.00 Approx: 3:1 - 5:1 Profit Loss Ratio The full target range would be between $7.00-$7.25 which would be reaching the H&S Target 5630 or 200 Day Moving Average 5577 Option Price Est. $1.00-$1.50 Approx. 3.3:1 - 7.5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
SP:SPXShort
by jaytmarquardt
2