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SPX500 trade ideas

SPX Elliott Wave Count AnalysisJust dropping a multi-timeframe breakdown of my current EW thesis for SPX, starting from the macro and drilling down to now. Big Picture (3M View): We’re still grinding through Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 (GSCW3) that I have starting in the 1932 low till now. Scoped in look at Super Cycle W4(SCW4) Super Cycle Wave 4 (SCW4) wrapped up around the ‘08-‘09 housing crash lows. Since then, we’ve been in SCW5, and based on current structure, I believe we’re still early or mid-stage, not near the end. Zoom-In: SCW5 to Present (Cycle Degree Breakdown): From the 2009 lows, price action carved out a textbook impulsive structure into what I’m labeling as Cycle Wave 1 (CW1), which likely topped out ~Dec 2024. The correction that followed has the characteristics of an Expanded Flat: A-B-C structure where Wave C just completed around April 7th. This structure, in my view, forms Wave W of a potential WXY complex for CW2. Now we’re either in: The early stages of Wave X, targeting the 0.618 retracement zone of W (marked on the chart), Or, X has already completed in a shorter move. Alt (Low-Probability) Scenario: There’s a slim case that the ABC (now W) correction was all of CW2 — given how it wicked into a deep, low-probability Fib zone (gray box). If we get a clear impulsive move above that 0.618 area, I’ll pay closer attention to this alt — but for now, I’m leaning toward more downside after this X-wave finishes (if it hasn't already). EW interpretations evolve, but this is my current working roadmap
SP:SPX
by Googlesaur
S&P500 Vast Support from previous High. New 2 year Bull started.The S&P500 / US500 has reached a bottom and is rebounding. The rebound is taking place just over the 1week MA200 but also the key pivot line that was previously a Cycle High and now turned Support. We have seen this another 2 times in the last 10 years and both time caused a massive rally. This puts an end to the tariff war correction and based on the chart starts a new 2 year Bull Cycle. Minimum rise before was +58%. Target 7600. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPXLong
by TheCryptagon
US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next?US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next? On February 20, 2025, the US500 index reached a record high of 6147, a level it had never touched before. Many expected Trump to support the stock market further, but instead, his tariffs and ongoing market disruptions led to the opposite outcome. In just 1.5 months, the US500 dropped by nearly 22%, hitting a strong support zone near 4810. Buyers stepped in at this level, helping the index recover 8%. From a technical perspective, the US500 appears poised for a bullish wave from this zone. However, its future direction heavily depends on Trump’s tariffs and his economic plans for the United States. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
13
SP500: Optimism in the markets !! No Fear !!Mr. Trump MANIPULATES THE WORLD as he pleases, and WE AS ANALYSTS have to BE COLD and be VERY ATTENTIVE to the news MORE THAN EVER!! And of course, NO FEAR. --> What does the SP500 and the rest of the indices and stocks look like? From my point of view, yesterday's news of granting a 90-DAY TRUCE on tariffs GIVES US THE POSSIBILITY OF UPSIDES for at least the next 2 months (ALWAYS with Trump's permission). Furthermore, we've also learned that US inflation fell to 2.4% in March, and the core rate to 2.8%, below expectations, which is VERY GOOD for the markets. With this data and the SHARP FALLS accumulated so far this year!!, UPSIDES ARE COMING!! Yesterday, the indices rose by nearly 10%, and it's normal for them to be falling by 5% today. If we observe the H1 chart above, the price has fallen to the 50% Fibonacci zone, meaning we are already in a good entry zone. --> We can do 2 things: When the price in lower timeframes (M15 chart below) shows us a bullish signal (Bull), make the long entry. Go long in the zone between the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci (current zone). -------------------------------------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions when the price enters the Fibonacci zone (50% - 61.8%) or when a lower timeframe chart gives us the bullish signal (Bull). POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 5,490 zone (+5.8%) --> Stop Loss at 4,900 (-3.5%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position. --> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-3.5%) (coinciding with the 4,900 of position 1). --> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (5,490). SETUP CLARIFICATIONS *** How to know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by 1 a determined distance. That determined distance is the dynamic Stop Loss. --> Example: If the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price falls by -1%, the position will close. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% on the upside, therefore, the risk becomes lower and lower until the position becomes profitable. This way, very solid and stable trends in the price can be taken advantage of, maximizing profits
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by jmesado
S&P500 Tariff comeback may be starting a whole new Bull Cycle!The S&P500 index (SPX) is making a remarkable comeback following the non-stop sell-off since mid-February as, following the tariff 90-day pause, it is staging a massive rebound just before touching the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Since that was almost at the bottom of its bullish channel while the 2W RSI hit its own Higher Lows trend-line, this can technically initiate a 2-year Bull Cycle similar to those that started on the October 2022 and March 2020 bottoms (green circles). The fact that the current correction has been almost as quick as the March 2020 COVID crash, may indicate that the recovery could be just as strong. In any event, it appears that a 7200 Target on a 2-year horizon is quite plausible, being close to he top of the bullish channel, while also under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which got hit during both previous Bullish Legs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
4
SPX....An interestng observation!10/4/25 spx....an interesting observation.. index has been travelling between the blue median which is a very strong support and the red median which is a very strong resistance.............this travel started s0me time in 2009....and is still ongoing! only during 2008/2009 lehman collapse and 2020 covid did the index go below the blue median.... will it slip the blue median again or move north again to retest the red median? only time will tell.. but we have the contours to monitor!
SP:SPX
by Nattyshotstocks
Black Monday is Coming – Time to Short This Beast!Alright, listen up, traders! The storm is brewing, the signs are clear, and if you haven't noticed yet—wake up! Black Monday is knocking, and the market is looking ripe for a proper dump. Now, I'm not saying sell your grandma’s jewelry and go all-in, but if you're looking for a juicy short entry, this might just be it. Ideally, you want to get in around that sweet spot in the yellow zone (check the chart) or even from the current levels if you're feeling extra spicy. Risk? What Risk? (Just Kidding, Manage It!) Stop-loss? Yeah, slap that bad boy above $6,150 on the 4-hour close. If price secures above that level, it's a no-go—cut it and move on. Take profits? Scale out as price nosedives. No need to be greedy; let the market pay you in chunks. The Big Picture This ain't financial advice—just a battle plan from someone who's seen enough bloodbaths in the markets to smell the fear. High risk? Absolutely. But hey, no risk, no champagne. Remember, risk management is king. Play it smart, lock in profits, and let the market do the heavy lifting-because when the dust settles, only disciplined traders will be left standing.
SP:SPXShort
by TottiVincenzo
Do not panic. Let's look for opportunity.Don't panic. Let's try to find the opportunity here. Let this be a place free of fear p0rn. Yes, we bounced, but as you can see - we bounced at a perfectly logical place. IF we go lower, where MIGHT the bottom be? Where might we get a major bounce? Let's assume this is something "historic". What I have indicated in the chart would be a crash worse than COVID, but not AS BAD as the Global Financial Crisis. Take the long-term support (going back to GFC) and extend it out. Take the PRE-COVID high and extend it out. This may be an important coordinate, and even if we touch either of the lines, I would expect some bounce. Let's see how it plays out. STICK TO YOUR STRATEGY. Don't panic!
SP:SPX
by MonsterStockPicks
SPX: Market Reflexivity & Fractal PatternsIn this idea I would like to walk you through some principles which I use to find and relate historical complexities within rhyming cycles. Market Reflexivity Market reflexivity is a concept introduced by George Soros that defies the traditional TA notion of efficient markets by revealing that price movements do not merely reflect fundamentals — they actively shape them. As prices rise, optimism fuels further buying, creating a self-reinforcing loop inflating bubbles. Conversely, declining prices trigger fear, accelerating downturns. Reflexivity explains why trends persist and why reversals can be abrupt, as self-sustaining cycles eventually reach a exhaustion point. To put it simply, there is a feedback loop between market participants’ perceptions and actual market conditions, suggesting that financial markets are not always in equilibrium because collective investor behavior actively drives price movements, which in turn influences future investor behavior. Feedback Loops Each massive rally eventually creates conditions that lead to overvaluation, resulting in sharp corrections. Self-Fulfilling Expectations Market participants, reacting to past price behavior, reinforce trends until a breaking point. Structural Adaptation Every major correction resets valuations, allowing for the next cycle to begin with renewed confidence and capital inflows. Practical Application of Reflexivity Compared to many tickers, SPX has exhibited relatively stable growth throughout history. Over the past 70 years, the most significant panic-driven decline occurred after its 2007 peak, with a 57% drop that defined a major cycle. Growth resumed in 2009, making this swing a key reference point for establishing historical relationships. I see the Dotcom and Housing crisis-induced declines as part of a broader complexity, shaped by prior long-term growth. The two cycles appear as they do because they stem from an extended structural uptrend, not just the 250% surge from 1994 to the bubble top, which lacked a significant preceding decline. Cause-and-effect logic suggests that these crashes were a reaction to a much larger uptrend that began in 1974. A 2447% rally provides a more compelling reason for mass panic and selling, as corrections of such magnitude are rare. Intuitively, the 2447% long-term upswing should have been preceded by a decline similar to the Dotcom and Housing crashes. This holds true, as the market experienced a nearly 50% drop after peaking in 1973 and 37% in 1968, following the same cyclical pattern of deep corrections leading to extended expansions. These corrections were relatively smaller than the Dotcom and Housing crashes because they are followed by a comparatively smaller 1452% rally from the end of WWII. Multi-Fractals Multifractals in market analysis describe the non-linear, self-similar nature of price movements, where volatility and risk vary across different scales. Unlike simple fractals with a constant fractal dimension, multifractals exhibit multiple fractal dimensions, creating varying levels of roughness. Benoit Mandelbrot introduced multifractal Time Series to refine the classic random walk theory, recognizing that price movements occur in bursts of volatility followed by calm periods. Instead of a single Hurst exponent, markets display a spectrum of exponents, reflecting diverse scaling behaviors and explaining why price action appears random at times but reveals structured patterns over different time horizons. This justifies viewing price action within its structural cause-and-effect framework, where micro and macro cycles are interdependent, while oscillating at different frequencies. Therefore, we will apply the building blocks independently from boundaries of Full Fractal Cycle. Since volatility varies, this reserves us the right to extract patterns with identical slope and roughness, and by method of exclusion relate to recent cycles starting from covid.
TVC:SPX
by fract
9
S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle). It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash. Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them. In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances). If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022). As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been. The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
One more wave down for SPX500USDHi traders, SPX500USD went straight into the target last week. From there it rejected and made a bigger correction (orange) wave X (updated wavecount). Next week we could see the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
1
Buy Low Sell High (Buy The Fine Dip) When the market becomes "Cheap" it's time to buy. And when the market is in decline "Sell High, Buy Low". At this time we saw a lot of Institutional activity, they were positioning at the top, when the index was struggling to make new All Time Highs, which according to the Wyckoff theory, it signals a reversal. It happened way harder than anticipated. There was a tiny Dead Cat Bounce not long ago, followed by a flush in the market. We reached the main trend line that was supported during the "COVID19 recession", the "FED's Soft Landing" and now the moment of truth, the "Tariffs & DOGE" period. If we compare the three critical moments in the market, we realize they all are the same size, 1,200 points. Let's go from there and assume the flush was the same and the support line holds. We have the ingredients for a dead cat bounce, taking the index back to 5,500, which will be another moment of truth. Will the short covering and the "buy the dip" mentality will be able to hold the levels and at least make the market pause the decline and best case scenario, consolidate? This will be answered if the index keeps above the 4,900 - 5,000-ish levels. I don't see a change in the economic policies of this administration, which makes me think a decline will happen after this Dead Cat Bounce. In which case the markets may fall back to the 3,600 levels, which will be signaled if the main support line doesn't hold, then brace for impact. The interest rates are relatively high, the inflation is ticking up and the unemployment, after the layoffs and the DOGE purge is ticking up as well. I don't see a forced slow down in the interest rates since this would take us to a scenario of high inflation and low rates, similar to what happened during the late 70's during the "Stagflation" period where after the initial high inflation peak, lowering the interest rates only exacerbated the economy. In the Weeks ahead we'll see the "Back to Normal" and the fanfares of a "quick recovery" in the markets, so I go long in the short term and wait for direction in the range.
SP:SPXLong
by Madrid
Are we done with the slide, or not? US indices are suffering right now, but is there light at the end of the tunnel? Let's dig in! MARKETSCOM:US500 MARKETSCOM:US100 MARKETSCOM:US30 Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:US500
by Marketscom
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading session, the Index has recorded lower opening prices, thereby completing our key Outer Index Dip levels at 5026 and 4893, as previously highlighted in last week's Daily Chart analysis. This development establishes a foundation for a continuous upward trend, targeting the Outer Index Rally at 5550, with an interim resistance identified at 5455. Should this upward momentum persist, further extension may reach the subsequent resistance levels of 5672 and 5778, respectively. However, it is essential to note that a downward momentum may occur at the very significant completion target level of the Outer Index Rally at 5550, with the primary objective being a Mean Sup 5140 and retest of the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter